Dak Has A 43% 3rd Down Conversion on 3rd & Over 5 Yards

[pitt33]

But is he able to get a CRITICAL 3rd and 5 on the game winning drive against a team in the playoffs to win the game????

I’ll answer that one…

No.

Still can’t get the 2nd and 2 interception and the 3 and out with three minutes to go against SF.

But I hope he gets another NFL Man of the Year award.

 

[CCBoy]

You're good at it too. Plenty of comedy and lacking in content. Brains probably shouldn't be something you're talking about.

See if that matches up with a Congressional Appointment to the US Air Force Academy...assume it!

From Kika de la Garza (Senior Senator and Chairman of the Armed Forces Committee during Viet Nam)

 

[Havic]

Wherever you rank Kirk Cousins is exactly where Dak needs to be

 

[CowboysLakerBamaFan]

Does that 43% completion include when he completes it to the other team?

Not hating....just genuinely curious about the math.

 

[CowboysLakerBamaFan]

So...does this mean Jimmy Garapallo is a Top10 QB too?

 

[SportsGuru80]

Dak is a top 5 QB... I don't argue with fools anymore.

 

[T-RO]

Dak + Moore was a big success. Feel sorry for those too blind to see it.

 

[McKDaddy]

Serious question. What do his numbers look like when the game is competitive? I can see a lot of skewing when working over a weaker team or the third string defense when we have gotten pummeled.

 

[zrinkill]

I am glad Dak is second to only Mahomes in 3rd down conversions.

Now I want him to stop throwing the ball to the other team and play well when we play the 49'rs.

 

[CowboyoWales]

Serious question. What do his numbers look like when the game is competitive? I can see a lot of skewing when working over a weaker team or the third string defense when we have gotten pummeled.

Fair point, it's like the top 10 issue, of course he's in the top 10, however, if he can't overcome the apparent inability to put it together at the most intense moments (there's that 50 Rating when trailing with >2 mins left again) then it's going to be difficult (but not impossible) to see him leading us to the ultimate prize.

 

[gtb1943]

Considering the accomplishments of the QBs who are lower on that list then Dak, sort of makes you wonder what value that stat really has...

 

[DogFace]

I would say yes. Because I can't find 10 quarterbacks I'd take over him. But what does that mean? Top 10 is not a consistent measure. Besides that, my opinion is skewing the results because I like pocket passers, not running QBs.

We have the very good QBs or elite passers. We have the crap QBs that get passed around from team to team, and you have everyone else in between. It's very hard to rank those in between. Their success greatly depends on the team talent around them. How many NFC championships would Jimmy Garoppolo see if he were traded to the Bears instead of the 49ers? None.

Tell me a definite way of getting one of those QB’s at the very top that you want.

 

[CowboyoWales]

Tell me a definite way of getting one of those QB’s at the very top that you want.

The Purdy/Hurts/Stafford success of late proves it's not all about the quality of the QB.

 

[Typhus]

Does that 43% completion include when he completes it to the other team?

Not hating....just genuinely curious about the math.

And when he doesn't do it the first time, he goes right back to it and makes sure.
Always knew he had dust for brains, but he endorsed it on that series.

 

[CCBoy]

Why Cowboys' Dak Prescott's interception rate should improve in 2023​

Season	Games Played	ATT	TD	INT	TD%	INT%
2016	16	459	23	4	5.0	0.9
2017	16	490	22	13	4.5	2.7
2018	16	526	22	8	4.2	1.5
2019	16	596	30	11	5.0	1.8
2020	5	222	9	4	4.1	1.8
2021	16	596	37	10	6.2	1.7
2022	12	394	23	15	5.8	3.8
AVG		469	23.7	9.3

Taking things a step further, Prescott's career interception rate and his uncharacteristic 2022 season can be compared to league values and other top quarterbacks to better gauge what can be expected from him moving forward. The following data, again courtesy of NFL.com, was restricted to quarterbacks from the 2016 to 2022 season with a minimum of 300 pass attempts.

Visually graphing out the league results shows that Prescott's past season was not only an outlier for him, but also greatly departed from the typical interception rates across the league. For comparison, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Aaron Rodgers interception rates over the past few years are also included. This highlights how high of a level Rodgers played at during his MVP seasons, but more importantly for Prescott that even top tier quarterbacks like Mahomes and Allen have better and worse seasons that in the long term tend to behave closer to the league average values.

The main reason for this, as stated above, is that context and luck play a large role in interceptions. Sometimes the ball takes a lucky or unlucky bounce off the receivers hands, such was the case for the Cowboys in overtime versus the Jaguars when Noah Brown let a ball bounce off his hands. So to truly find the turnover adverse and turnover heavy quarterbacks a large enough sample size, ideally over several seasons, is needed to account for this. That is why Prescott's 2023 season compared to the rest of his career and the league typical values can help contextualize whether this was characteristic of chance or Prescott himself.

https://thelandryhat.com/posts/why-dak-prescott-interception-rate-should-regress-2023

 

[Hardline]

Dak + Moore was a big success. Feel sorry for those too blind to see it.

How many Lombardi's did they win?

 

[Typhus]

Why Cowboys' Dak Prescott's interception rate should improve in 2023​

Season	Games Played	ATT	TD	INT	TD%	INT%
2016	16	459	23	4	5.0	0.9
2017	16	490	22	13	4.5	2.7
2018	16	526	22	8	4.2	1.5
2019	16	596	30	11	5.0	1.8
2020	5	222	9	4	4.1	1.8
2021	16	596	37	10	6.2	1.7
2022	12	394	23	15	5.8	3.8
AVG		469	23.7	9.3

Taking things a step further, Prescott's career interception rate and his uncharacteristic 2022 season can be compared to league values and other top quarterbacks to better gauge what can be expected from him moving forward. The following data, again courtesy of NFL.com, was restricted to quarterbacks from the 2016 to 2022 season with a minimum of 300 pass attempts.

Visually graphing out the league results shows that Prescott's past season was not only an outlier for him, but also greatly departed from the typical interception rates across the league. For comparison, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Aaron Rodgers interception rates over the past few years are also included. This highlights how high of a level Rodgers played at during his MVP seasons, but more importantly for Prescott that even top tier quarterbacks like Mahomes and Allen have better and worse seasons that in the long term tend to behave closer to the league average values.

The main reason for this, as stated above, is that context and luck play a large role in interceptions. Sometimes the ball takes a lucky or unlucky bounce off the receivers hands, such was the case for the Cowboys in overtime versus the Jaguars when Noah Brown let a ball bounce off his hands. So to truly find the turnover adverse and turnover heavy quarterbacks a large enough sample size, ideally over several seasons, is needed to account for this. That is why Prescott's 2023 season compared to the rest of his career and the league typical values can help contextualize whether this was characteristic of chance or Prescott himself.

https://thelandryhat.com/posts/why-dak-prescott-interception-rate-should-regress-2023

Quit reading after "uncharacteristic".
That is exactly what Dak is, he is not getting any better no matter how much faith you have in him.

 

[CowboyoWales]

Why Cowboys' Dak Prescott's interception rate should improve in 2023​

Season	Games Played	ATT	TD	INT	TD%	INT%
2016	16	459	23	4	5.0	0.9
2017	16	490	22	13	4.5	2.7
2018	16	526	22	8	4.2	1.5
2019	16	596	30	11	5.0	1.8
2020	5	222	9	4	4.1	1.8
2021	16	596	37	10	6.2	1.7
2022	12	394	23	15	5.8	3.8
AVG		469	23.7	9.3

Taking things a step further, Prescott's career interception rate and his uncharacteristic 2022 season can be compared to league values and other top quarterbacks to better gauge what can be expected from him moving forward. The following data, again courtesy of NFL.com, was restricted to quarterbacks from the 2016 to 2022 season with a minimum of 300 pass attempts.

Visually graphing out the league results shows that Prescott's past season was not only an outlier for him, but also greatly departed from the typical interception rates across the league. For comparison, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Aaron Rodgers interception rates over the past few years are also included. This highlights how high of a level Rodgers played at during his MVP seasons, but more importantly for Prescott that even top tier quarterbacks like Mahomes and Allen have better and worse seasons that in the long term tend to behave closer to the league average values.

The main reason for this, as stated above, is that context and luck play a large role in interceptions. Sometimes the ball takes a lucky or unlucky bounce off the receivers hands, such was the case for the Cowboys in overtime versus the Jaguars when Noah Brown let a ball bounce off his hands. So to truly find the turnover adverse and turnover heavy quarterbacks a large enough sample size, ideally over several seasons, is needed to account for this. That is why Prescott's 2023 season compared to the rest of his career and the league typical values can help contextualize whether this was characteristic of chance or Prescott himself.

https://thelandryhat.com/posts/why-dak-prescott-interception-rate-should-regress-2023

A fine line to tread when the 'outlier' year's the last one. Personally the INT's arent the concern, as you say there are many of them that weren't his fault, I'm more concerned with how he appears to lose confidence when things go wrong.

 

[CCBoy]

Quit reading after "uncharacteristic".
That is exactly what Dak is, he is not getting any better no matter how much faith you have in him.

A true leader there my friend...we're going into battle, you don't need a Prep Order, just go out there and be average. You bet...

go to the post and read the next graph that carries the X's and O's, unless, of course, you are in a purely out to lunch mode.

I'm not into hero worship or ignoring relevant facts...but that's me.

 

[CowboyoWales]

Dak + Moore was a big success. Feel sorry for those too blind to see it.

Is that the Dak +Moore that BOTH won 12 games in the past two seasons or the Dak +Moore than combined to be unable to configure a TD in two 2 minute drills to end both seasons vrs the 49ers?