CFZ Dak Interceptions - Regression to the Mean (Warning: Math Geek)

[OGSixshooter]

Typical Dak play, where he sees only his early read. He even admitted this in his description of the Texas West Coast offense, but tried to attribute it to the offense and not him. He basically said the offense is focused on him not going to the early read if it’s not there. Even Dak admitted he was keying in on his early reads. But we all know that it’s Dak, not the offense, as that’s what he is as a QB, I’ve said it over and over again, Dak can throw a nice ball when he knows where he is going from the get go, but it puts pressure on Moore to get him options early.

What do "typical" mean? If that was the case he would "typically" have more INTs than TDs. This is just pure poppycock. Dak ranks 13th in what PFF calls "turnover worthy throws". That's not great...but far from "typical".

 

[Captain-Crash]

Only having 1 legit WR had nothing to do with it right?

it didn't seem to hurt Rush, but I guess he's better at risk management?

 

[Rockport]

You're avoiding the question.

Would hitting the wide open Hilton for an easy TD very possibly have made the difference?

Come on now. Let's see some of that intestinal fortitude you're always talking about.

You’re avoiding my point which I began first.

 

[McKDaddy]

but in those moments of intense pressure he does not trust his arm accuracy.

this is core issue. he was never challenged in 2016 and his confidence was high. In 2017 teams had figured him out and he realized that he wasn't up to par. he has worked to improve but to be aggressive and make those throws he has to abandon his natural tendencies both physical & mental. he can do it when he isn't feeling the heat, but it makes him indecisive or worse the more pressure he's under. natural human tendency. we all revert to what we are most comfortable with.

 

[AbeBeta]

This has been studied, you know. Interception rate stabilizes at around 1600-1700 attempts. So yes, it is enough to draw conclusions from.

Please do provide a source for that claim. One that addresses individual players and not league-wide rates.

 

[AbeBeta]

The problem with that argument is that nearly all the sample sizes in football are too small, because of the limited number of games compared to other sports. What you have to look at is the relative difference when you have small sample sizes. It’s the best you can do in the circumstances.

Applying statistical analysis to real life vs. theoretical issues, or very high data sets is different. Yea, you get more variation, and the confidence level is lower. But it still provides useful information.

No, I think the problem with your argument is that nearly all sample sizes in football are too small.

And, frankly, when you say the confidence level is lower, you are talking about 5% error rates vs. 50% error rates. That's kind of a big deal.

 

[OGSixshooter]

some of are way way overthinking this.

its football, its year to year and not worrying about oddball math thats too analytical. Whatever is going to happen will happen and we just watch,.,hes not known to throw a lot of INTs i doubt he will be at 6 but if he plays 17 games and throws 15 I'm fine with it.,.

it will be less but hopefully that equates to 35 tds and 15 Ints. he was at 37-10 in 21 but i doubt math goes into odds and what now. Its just circumstances in games and so many moving pieces its hard to control. Matthew Stafford won a super bowl what with 41 touchdowns and 17 interceptions? he threw 3 INTs in the playoffs ,2 interceptions in the Superbowl THats 20!. that's a fact we need a better team, that's it.. the rams were so good they can afford to cover up some of those interceptions. so we need to put a better team on the field in the playoffs against the better teams , it's that simple. get a better run game and a better o....rm better against the better defenses...dak will show up with that and win !

LOL

 

[Typhus]

it's like a speckled chicken sitting on an old rusty post looking eastward. Red dog meowing. tango charlie, chicken chow mein.

I had a red dog that meowed, many moons ago.
Havent thought about that in years, thanks for refreshing me.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

If they don't keep him under 3rd and 4 we are in TROUBLE..................

 

[Starstruck22]

at the start of the 10 second mark, Dak's arm is back getting ready for the throw. Hilton is covered at that point. as you go frame by frame in the middle of the 10th second part of the video, the defender is still on Hilton and moving towards him and hilton is covered, as he throws the ball (still in the 10 second frame) and as the ball is coming out of his hand, you see hilton coming free. that's what everybody sees. not the 9th and 10th second frames where you have to decide where the play is. and again, if I see a WR against a LB. that's the hot read. that's the mismatch you are looking for, specially the best WR on the team.

now, if you want to argue the throw wasn't good. you got something there. but I take a WR lined up against a LB all day long.

Hilton was wide open for 6. Dak will throw 2 pics in the opening game against the gmen.

 

[Starstruck22]

Hilton was not open the whole time.

Learn to.watch NFL tape. Then speak.

But I get it. You have an agenda to drive. You see what you want to see and you just watch the end of tape and make.claims.

And if the throw was better and catch made, you wouldn't be here making claims.

Only around when we lose or to point out a play that wasnt made.

I am.not surprised.

Done

If

Wide open for 6.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Hilton was wide open for 6. Dak will throw 2 pics in the opening game against the gmen.

Are you guaranteeing this?

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Wide open for 6.

Ookk then.


I was going to say he was open for 12. Thats how open he was

 

[Ranching]

I think fat Mike wanted dak to take more chances and we saw the results.

It was Moore....that's why he's gone

 

[nalam]

Very simple. Early on his reads were simple, he did not take chances, if it wasn't there he took off. Then he got hurt. Then he signed his big deal. Now his reads are more difficult, he takes more chances, if it isn't there he stays in the pocket and gets sacked or forces it. The difference in his play is obvious. The impact it has on INTs is obvious.

Early on he got a gift of an OL with players on their peaks , Tyron , Fred , Martin with Ron and Free ?Also he was cautious about not giving the ball away , supported by peak Zeke running game and good WRs.

Later ( after he got paid ) was surrounded by less offensive talent ( ceedee only legitimate threat , gimpy Gallup and error prone Schultz) & Dak was asked to do more , shoulder more responsibility for offensive success and paid the price ( KM didnt help , he was calling a game suited for much better QB, also had no situational awareness. Thats why Mac is taking over )

now this year , we again got a better set of receivers, hopefully better run game than last year ( but OL is still suspect ) lets hope Macs scheme allows the ball to come out quickly and create mismatches with YAC after catches which will help reduce ints, but fumbles need to be watched .

 

[ESisback]

It was Moore....that's why he's gone

Well yeah, but McCarthy IS fat!

 

[Ranching]

Well yeah, but McCarthy IS fat!

I'm 6'4" 275.....I resemble that remark!

 

[ESisback]

I'm 6'4" 275.....I resemble that remark!

I just laugh at the macho gurus who say “Fat Mike”, like his weight has ANYTHING to do with his coaching!

 

[Captain-Crash]

It was Moore....that's why he's gone

I could be wrong but I think I heard Mike in an interview say that.

 

[mardwin]

In Dak’s first 6 seasons, he started 85 games, and threw 50 interceptions - an average interception rate of 0.588 interceptions per game. Over a 17 game season, the expected interceptions Dak should throw is 10 interceptions per 17 game season. But last year, in only 12 games, Dak threw 1.25 interceptions per game for a total of 15 interceptions. 2022 was obviously an outlier, with Dak throwing interceptions at more than twice his normal rate.

Statistically, barring outside factors, there is a principal called “Regression to the Mean. It means that an unusually high variation will likely be counter-balances by an unusually low variation in the variable (in this case interceptions) to bring the average back down to its historical value.

If Dak interceptions regress to the mean, that means that over the next two seasons, he’ll only throw about 12 interceptions, which is about 6 per season, assuming he plays all 17 games in 2023 & 2024.

Here is the math:

• 12 games (2022) + 34 games (2023 & 2024) = 46 games.
• Average of .588 interceptions per game x 46 games = 27 interceptions over 46 games.
• 27 interceptions - 15 interceptions already thrown = 12 interceptions spread out over the next 34 games

Unless Dak Prescott suddenly got worse, or there was some outside factor that affected his play in 2022, Dak's average interception rate should revert back to what it has been over his first 85 games, which means he'll throw fewer interceptions to offset what happened in 2022.

The alternative few, still assuming that Dak's historical career average of interceptions over his first 85 games in a true picture of what we can expect, is that there was an anomaly in 2022. Some will say, maybe justifiably, that Dak's receiver corps was suspect in 2022, which is an outside factor that would affect him. If that is the case, then we should expect Dak to revert back to his normal rate, which means he'll throw about 10 interceptions in a 17 game season.

Bottom line: Unless Dak has suddenly got worse, we should expect him to throw around 6-10 interceptions in 2023, and the same in 2024. Even if you include the anomalous 2022 season, Dak's current career interception rate is 65 interceptions over 97 games played = 0.67 interceptions per game. The high end of that is 11 expected interceptions in 2023 over an entire 17 game schedule.

Now, we'll all see what actually occurs during the season, but based on Dak's historical performance, I'm not too concerned about interceptions in 2023. I do believe that Michael Gallup was hobbled last year, and I wasn't ever a huge fan of Dalton Schultz, who was competent, but not special. The addition of Cooks, the health improvement of Gallup, and the development of Tolbert bodes well for Dak's performance in 2023 - at least during the season.

Here is a question, what was the average yard per attempted pass prior to 2022 and in 2022? That should give you further clarity if the increase in interceptions was due to a more aggressive style of play.