CFZ Dak Interceptions - Regression to the Mean (Warning: Math Geek)

[JD_KaPow]

No. You are incorrect. 2048 passes is far from large enough given all of the factors that play into interceptions. You are not making a valid statistical argument. Yeah see, stats folks understand the limitations of the math. Math folks just see numbers in a vacuum.

This has been studied, you know. Interception rate stabilizes at around 1600-1700 attempts. So yes, it is enough to draw conclusions from.

 

[Jarntt]

.

Statistically, barring outside factors, there is a principal called “Regression to the Mean. It means that an unusually high variation will likely be counter-balances by an unusually low variation in the variable (in this case interceptions) to bring the average back down to its historical value.

no it doesn’t. It means an unusually high (or low) variation is likely to be followed up with a result closer to the mean. It doesn’t mean the subsequent result is expected to be significantly to the opposite extreme.

in other words it doesn’t expect the initial average that existed before the two years will be maintained after those years, it simply assumes year two will be closer to the mean than year 1 (the outlier) was

 

[khiladi]

The problem you forget is the play caller, as Moore threw more, while Linehan had him in a dumbed-down ball control offense. The implication is none of this takes into account how much Dak threw in his later offenses.

The outliers are actually 2016 and 2018 when he threw few passes. 2017 was straight trash, as he threw 13 INTs, the season Zeke was suspended, while not throwing much. It’s only an outlier as far as passes thrown in the Linehan offense, but it’s not an outlier on a season basis compared with Moore’s offense. Otherwise, without taking into cling 2020 for MOORe when Dak broke his leg, he’s been averaging 12 INt a game. 2020 he was a walking pick anyways, as he had 4 by the time was hurt.

What awaits to be seen how McCarthy and Brian are going to call the game, but one thing is for sure, MM claimed that Moore wanted to score too fast and too often, and I think he was trying to out the INT problem on Dak.

Also, Dak’s record is terrible when he turns the ball over at least 1 times per the other thread. He had been getting bailed out because of this TO generating defense that often covers for Dak’s bone-headed INTs.

 

[ESisback]

Anyone have the final injury report/starting lineup?

 

[khiladi]

I think fat Mike wanted dak to take more chances and we saw the results.

Then he blamed it on Moore at the end of the season. All throughout the season, they were harping on it. Even Dak was saying he wasn’t going to stop throwing it mid-way through the season.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Dude, You've got to learn when to say when.

Maybe if Dak hadn't locked in on Lamb and actually glanced at the other receivers he might have seen the VERY favorable alignment. Hilton was open the whole time. Dak could have hit him with a quick one underneath the LB (or safety) or even better, simply lobbed it over that defenders head for the easy TD.

This is AC level excuse making coming from you.

Hilton was not open the whole time.

Learn to.watch NFL tape. Then speak.

But I get it. You have an agenda to drive. You see what you want to see and you just watch the end of tape and make.claims.

And if the throw was better and catch made, you wouldn't be here making claims.

Only around when we lose or to point out a play that wasnt made.

I am.not surprised.

Done

If

 

[khiladi]

The last two sentences seem contradictory.

When did Dak become an "interception machine"? If so, how did he take Romo's job and then keep it and secure a new contract?

What makes you think Dak is slow? It's been well-reported he has a photographic memory and is over-prepared for games.

Dak has the same issue Romo had and many people who are "surprise" starters have: Legitimacy due to heightened expectations. It's one thing to win the job, it's another to be told to the win the SB. It has nothing to do with his intelligence, football intelligence or otherwise. I will even agree that he doesn't have the most "rubber" or flexible of arms. But intelligence? How would you know?

Because Linehan was playing in a dumb-downed offense. He got the starting job, because they didn’t want to ruin the run, even though Romo was clearly better and Dak played like trash against the Vikings and Giants who were the only team with legitimate defenses and he was a cheaper contract. And we saw how bad he was in 2017 as an INT machine in the dumbed down offense.

And no, Dak is not fast at reason they field. Even Witten said it in the booth and so did Jimmy Johnson. He’s horrible with his progressions and reading defenses.

 

[khiladi]

The term, paralysis by analysis, comes to mind.

All the pre game preparation in the world doesn't matter when the opponent doesn't bring what you prepared yourself for, and you have to make split second decisions. The poster you replied to coined it as "quick smart". A half second makes all the difference sometimes. Like on the int to Gallup. Gallup took all the heat for that but that ball needs to be out before the receiver turns around. If not, a professional CB is going to have time to make a play.

Ironically, if Dak had been more aggressive on that play it likely wouldn't have resulted in an int.

The defense of Dak on this play is hilarious. Even Martz who was trying to defend him as far as Gallup not coming back, though he wasn’t defending the pass, he pointed out the other receivers on his earlier reads were a better options and Martz didn’t even get to the fact Zeke was wide open in the flag on the same side as Gallup while Dak was staring Gallup down..

 

[5Stars]

In Dak’s first 6 seasons, he started 85 games, and threw 50 interceptions - an average interception rate of 0.588 interceptions per game. Over a 17 game season, the expected interceptions Dak should throw is 10 interceptions per 17 game season. But last year, in only 12 games, Dak threw 1.25 interceptions per game for a total of 15 interceptions. 2022 was obviously an outlier, with Dak throwing interceptions at more than twice his normal rate.

Statistically, barring outside factors, there is a principal called “Regression to the Mean. It means that an unusually high variation will likely be counter-balances by an unusually low variation in the variable (in this case interceptions) to bring the average back down to its historical value.

If Dak interceptions regress to the mean, that means that over the next two seasons, he’ll only throw about 12 interceptions, which is about 6 per season, assuming he plays all 17 games in 2023 & 2024.

Here is the math:

• 12 games (2022) + 34 games (2023 & 2024) = 46 games.
• Average of .588 interceptions per game x 46 games = 27 interceptions over 46 games.
• 27 interceptions - 15 interceptions already thrown = 12 interceptions spread out over the next 34 games

Unless Dak Prescott suddenly got worse, or there was some outside factor that affected his play in 2022, Dak's average interception rate should revert back to what it has been over his first 85 games, which means he'll throw fewer interceptions to offset what happened in 2022.

The alternative few, still assuming that Dak's historical career average of interceptions over his first 85 games in a true picture of what we can expect, is that there was an anomaly in 2022. Some will say, maybe justifiably, that Dak's receiver corps was suspect in 2022, which is an outside factor that would affect him. If that is the case, then we should expect Dak to revert back to his normal rate, which means he'll throw about 10 interceptions in a 17 game season.

Bottom line: Unless Dak has suddenly got worse, we should expect him to throw around 6-10 interceptions in 2023, and the same in 2024. Even if you include the anomalous 2022 season, Dak's current career interception rate is 65 interceptions over 97 games played = 0.67 interceptions per game. The high end of that is 11 expected interceptions in 2023 over an entire 17 game schedule.

Now, we'll all see what actually occurs during the season, but based on Dak's historical performance, I'm not too concerned about interceptions in 2023. I do believe that Michael Gallup was hobbled last year, and I wasn't ever a huge fan of Dalton Schultz, who was competent, but not special. The addition of Cooks, the health improvement of Gallup, and the development of Tolbert bodes well for Dak's performance in 2023 - at least during the season.

Here is my math...stop throwing Int's! Lets see how his math is this coming season.

Statistics are used for fools.

 

[Jumbo075]

No. You are incorrect. 2048 passes is far from large enough given all of the factors that play into interceptions. You are not making a valid statistical argument. Yeah see, stats folks understand the limitations of the math. Math folks just see numbers in a vacuum.

The problem with that argument is that nearly all the sample sizes in football are too small, because of the limited number of games compared to other sports. What you have to look at is the relative difference when you have small sample sizes. It’s the best you can do in the circumstances.

Applying statistical analysis to real life vs. theoretical issues, or very high data sets is different. Yea, you get more variation, and the confidence level is lower. But it still provides useful information.

 

[khiladi]

Crappy vid and music but here is the play. You couldn't be more wrong.

Typical Dak play, where he sees only his early read. He even admitted this in his description of the Texas West Coast offense, but tried to attribute it to the offense and not him. He basically said the offense is focused on him not going to the early read if it’s not there. Even Dak admitted he was keying in on his early reads. But we all know that it’s Dak, not the offense, as that’s what he is as a QB, I’ve said it over and over again, Dak can throw a nice ball when he knows where he is going from the get go, but it puts pressure on Moore to get him options early.

 

[NotForLong]

The San Fran game was the perfect example he had a wide open Hilton for a Td and he chose i think it was lamb who was blanketed and it was an incompletion. Plus started off game with 2 inexplicable pics in coverage. All due to stupidity. People blamed Moore but Moore is not making stupid snap judgments Dak is. I am predicting one or 2 pics in the Giants game. It will happen. Bank on it. Then we can blame McCarthy.

mccarthy aint taking the blame . . . He is moving on if need be

Its Big Mike's Team this year

 

[Vtwin]

Hilton was not open the whole time.

Learn to.watch NFL tape. Then speak.

But I get it. You have an agenda to drive. You see what you want to see and you just watch the end of tape and make.claims.

And if the throw was better and catch made, you wouldn't be here making claims.

Only around when we lose or to point out a play that wasnt made.

I am.not surprised.

Done

If

lol

Whatever you say, Vince.

 

[Rockport]

I think fat Mike wanted dak to take more chances and we saw the results.

Only having 1 legit WR had nothing to do with it right?

 

[Vtwin]

Only having 1 legit WR had nothing to do with it right?

Did you watch the vid I posted in this thread?

Do you agree or disagree that that one play could have made the difference between a win and a loss or are you sticking to your claim that Dak was let down by everything else and had no chance to lead the team to a win?

If you have any intestinal fortitude you will answer this question.

 

[Rockport]

Did you watch the vid I posted in this thread?

Do you agree or disagree that that one play could have made the difference between a win and a loss or are you sticking to your claim that Dak was let down by everything else and had no chance to lead the team to a win?

If you have any intestinal fortitude you will answer this question.

He only had 1 legit WR.

 

[Whirlwin]

He misses the open read frequently and throws into multiple coverage frequently. He is stupid.

Baloney. He is stupid. It makes you sound like you’re calling him.

 

[Whirlwin]

Dont even drink dude. nice try.

That doesn’t mean you don’t watch games At an establishment, and not really paying attention

 

[Vtwin]

He only had 1 legit WR.

You're avoiding the question.

Would hitting the wide open Hilton for an easy TD very possibly have made the difference?

Come on now. Let's see some of that intestinal fortitude you're always talking about.

 

[OGSixshooter]

Because Linehan was playing in a dumb-downed offense. He got the starting job, because they didn’t want to ruin the run, even though Romo was clearly better and Dak played like trash against the Vikings and Giants who were the only team with legitimate defenses and he was a cheaper contract. And we saw how bad he was in 2017 as an INT machine in the dumbed down offense.

And no, Dak is not fast at reason they field. Even Witten said it in the booth and so did Jimmy Johnson. He’s horrible with his progressions and reading defenses.

Produce the quote or admit you are making things up. I'm no Dak-stan...but this is just purely make believe. Jimmy said Dak struggles with accuracy and he didn't know if he can improve. Witten absolutely gushes over Daks ability to read defenses...please stop. You can not like Dak without pretending you know more than you do about football, progressions or any of what you spat.