CFZ Dak Interceptions - Regression to the Mean (Warning: Math Geek)

[TheMarathonContinues]

Dak is an interception machine due to poor judgement, poor ability to see the field, and poor passing. There will be interceptions in the Giants game. Bank on it. It is Dak’s modus operandi. The argument that because he has been bad, he cannot continue to be bad or get worse is nonsense. I just do not believe
Dak is an upper echelon QB due to his intellect. He is really not very smart or quick smart like upper tier guys.

His intellect is one of his better attributes.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

Well....this is interesting. Telling fans how dumb they are by running statistical analysis and logic experiments.

Hmmm....ok then. Cool.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Here is a question, what was the average yard per attempted pass prior to 2022 and in 2022? That should give you further clarity if the increase in interceptions was due to a more aggressive style of play.

For future reference, pro-football-reference.com has this data. His air yards last year were higher than 2020-2021 but lower than 2019.

Personally, I think the “planned to be more aggressive” thing is a red herring, and the INTs last year were mostly about receivers who couldn’t get open, some crazy bad deflection luck, and especially later in the season, a running game that constantly left them in bad down-and-distance situations. That last one did result in some aggression-related INTs, because Dak did make low-percentage passes in those situations rather than check down, but I don't know how much of that was a deliberate choice by the team vs. him just trying to be a hero in the moment. I suspect it was more the latter.

Nine of his 15 INTS came on: 3rd-and-10, 3rd-and-11, 3rd-and-10, 3rd-and-15, 3rd-and-10, 2nd-and-8, 2nd-and-20, 2nd-and-18, and 3rd-and-6.

 

[kskboys]

I think fat Mike wanted dak to take more chances and we saw the results.

Fat Mike wasn't calling the players. Derdeedee.

 

[kskboys]

In Dak’s first 6 seasons, he started 85 games, and threw 50 interceptions - an average interception rate of 0.588 interceptions per game. Over a 17 game season, the expected interceptions Dak should throw is 10 interceptions per 17 game season. But last year, in only 12 games, Dak threw 1.25 interceptions per game for a total of 15 interceptions. 2022 was obviously an outlier, with Dak throwing interceptions at more than twice his normal rate.

Statistically, barring outside factors, there is a principal called “Regression to the Mean. It means that an unusually high variation will likely be counter-balances by an unusually low variation in the variable (in this case interceptions) to bring the average back down to its historical value.

If Dak interceptions regress to the mean, that means that over the next two seasons, he’ll only throw about 12 interceptions, which is about 6 per season, assuming he plays all 17 games in 2023 & 2024.

Here is the math:

• 12 games (2022) + 34 games (2023 & 2024) = 46 games.
• Average of .588 interceptions per game x 46 games = 27 interceptions over 46 games.
• 27 interceptions - 15 interceptions already thrown = 12 interceptions spread out over the next 34 games

Unless Dak Prescott suddenly got worse, or there was some outside factor that affected his play in 2022, Dak's average interception rate should revert back to what it has been over his first 85 games, which means he'll throw fewer interceptions to offset what happened in 2022.

The alternative few, still assuming that Dak's historical career average of interceptions over his first 85 games in a true picture of what we can expect, is that there was an anomaly in 2022. Some will say, maybe justifiably, that Dak's receiver corps was suspect in 2022, which is an outside factor that would affect him. If that is the case, then we should expect Dak to revert back to his normal rate, which means he'll throw about 10 interceptions in a 17 game season.

Bottom line: Unless Dak has suddenly got worse, we should expect him to throw around 6-10 interceptions in 2023, and the same in 2024. Even if you include the anomalous 2022 season, Dak's current career interception rate is 65 interceptions over 97 games played = 0.67 interceptions per game. The high end of that is 11 expected interceptions in 2023 over an entire 17 game schedule.

Now, we'll all see what actually occurs during the season, but based on Dak's historical performance, I'm not too concerned about interceptions in 2023. I do believe that Michael Gallup was hobbled last year, and I wasn't ever a huge fan of Dalton Schultz, who was competent, but not special. The addition of Cooks, the health improvement of Gallup, and the development of Tolbert bodes well for Dak's performance in 2023 - at least during the season.

Sure, but this is completely ignoring the changes in playcalling coming up.

 

[Captain-Crash]

Fat Mike wasn't calling the players. Derdeedee.

derdeedee Mike made that comment, said he had no problem with derdeedee taking chances. wow, just wow..........derdeedee......

 

[kskboys]

derdeedee Mike made that comment, said he had no problem with derdeedee taking chances. wow, just wow.....sorry it hurt you so......derdeedee......

And yet, he wasn't calling the plays. Put aside the agenda, man, this one is obvious.

 

[Captain-Crash]

And yet, he wasn't calling the plays. Put aside the agenda, man, this one is obvious.

no agenda, Fat Mike said it so what does he want the offensive coordinator to do? Oh, Fat Mike was just in charge of the buffet. sorry, Super Mike didn't have a clue what the game plan was.

He was fine with the high-risk low reward of the plays and the idiot throwing the ball.

If the idiot didn't make any adjustments to the game plan, he should have hit the road too. If you are the head coach and don't have a problem with the game plan, you're just a spectator and don't give two craps about the team. yep, fat Mike will now give a crap because he can call plays. lmao at this team.
Heck, I don't even have to be or was a high school coach to see fat mike is a joke, if he allowed this crap.

Or he was another jason garrett trying to get rid of his competition. yep, that's it. He wanted to call the plays so he sabotaged the year so he could call the plays. That sounds about right.

 

[khiladi]

Produce the quote or admit you are making things up. I'm no Dak-stan...but this is just purely make believe. Jimmy said Dak struggles with accuracy and he didn't know if he can improve. Witten absolutely gushes over Daks ability to read defenses...please stop. You can not like Dak without pretending you know more than you do about football, progressions or any of what you spat.

How about you produce the quote for your claim? You can’t even read properly. Witten said Dak is basically an EARLY-READ in the booth before he returned to Dallas. Jimmy Johnson said the same thing.

“His No. 1 strength is he is a great leader for that football team,” Johnson said this week on Fox Sports’ The Herd. “He can win you a championship if you got really good players around him. They’ve had some injuries with the running game. They’re not running the football as well they did before Dak got injured. When they’re running the football, those play-action passes, Dak is really good. … But when he’s got to drop back and start reading the whole field and make decisions about where he’s throwing the football, and the defense isn’t slowing down for the run … he’s not near as good. He can win you a championship, but you better get the running game back.”

https://clutchpoints.com/cowboys-ne...las-needs-to-win-super-bowl-with-dak-prescott

His struggles with his accuracy precisely because he’s slow. He’s not inaccurate on his first read, but because he’s slow ** mentally, he’s delivering late all the time.

Written also said in 2017 when Dak was trash, but playing on the team, they gotta do a better job of helping out Dak when Dak threw 3 picks. In 2019, he talked about his “intangibles” and “being a leader”.

 

[khiladi]

What do "typical" mean? If that was the case he would "typically" have more INTs than TDs. This is just pure poppycock. Dak ranks 13th in what PFF calls "turnover worthy throws". That's not great...but far from "typical".

No, it wouldn’t mean he’d have more INTs than TDs.

 

[Vtwin]

And yet, he wasn't calling the plays. Put aside the agenda, man, this one is obvious.

I don't think the emphasis on being more aggressive had anything to do with the play calling.

It was about getting the QB to overcome his nature to be very cautious. Something Dak is very well known for.

 

[blueblood70]

In Dak’s first 6 seasons, he started 85 games, and threw 50 interceptions - an average interception rate of 0.588 interceptions per game. Over a 17 game season, the expected interceptions Dak should throw is 10 interceptions per 17 game season. But last year, in only 12 games, Dak threw 1.25 interceptions per game for a total of 15 interceptions. 2022 was obviously an outlier, with Dak throwing interceptions at more than twice his normal rate.

Statistically, barring outside factors, there is a principal called “Regression to the Mean. It means that an unusually high variation will likely be counter-balances by an unusually low variation in the variable (in this case interceptions) to bring the average back down to its historical value.

If Dak interceptions regress to the mean, that means that over the next two seasons, he’ll only throw about 12 interceptions, which is about 6 per season, assuming he plays all 17 games in 2023 & 2024.

Here is the math:

• 12 games (2022) + 34 games (2023 & 2024) = 46 games.
• Average of .588 interceptions per game x 46 games = 27 interceptions over 46 games.
• 27 interceptions - 15 interceptions already thrown = 12 interceptions spread out over the next 34 games

Unless Dak Prescott suddenly got worse, or there was some outside factor that affected his play in 2022, Dak's average interception rate should revert back to what it has been over his first 85 games, which means he'll throw fewer interceptions to offset what happened in 2022.

The alternative few, still assuming that Dak's historical career average of interceptions over his first 85 games in a true picture of what we can expect, is that there was an anomaly in 2022. Some will say, maybe justifiably, that Dak's receiver corps was suspect in 2022, which is an outside factor that would affect him. If that is the case, then we should expect Dak to revert back to his normal rate, which means he'll throw about 10 interceptions in a 17 game season.

Bottom line: Unless Dak has suddenly got worse, we should expect him to throw around 6-10 interceptions in 2023, and the same in 2024. Even if you include the anomalous 2022 season, Dak's current career interception rate is 65 interceptions over 97 games played = 0.67 interceptions per game. The high end of that is 11 expected interceptions in 2023 over an entire 17 game schedule.

Now, we'll all see what actually occurs during the season, but based on Dak's historical performance, I'm not too concerned about interceptions in 2023. I do believe that Michael Gallup was hobbled last year, and I wasn't ever a huge fan of Dalton Schultz, who was competent, but not special. The addition of Cooks, the health improvement of Gallup, and the development of Tolbert bodes well for Dak's performance in 2023 - at least during the season.

that is far far too much thinking for football my man...


https://media.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2...ZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9cw/rLJK2zQabLx7ReaMfv/giphy.gif

 

[Captain-Crash]

I don't think the emphasis on being more aggressive had anything to do with the play calling.

It was about getting the QB to overcome his nature to be very cautious. Something Dak is very well known for.

it's an agenda.....I hope he gets over it.

 

[khiladi]

I don't think the emphasis on being more aggressive had anything to do with the play calling.

It was about getting the QB to overcome his nature to be very cautious. Something Dak is very well known for.

Here he Dak after the Bears game:

“That’s just overconfidence, honestly,” Prescott said of the INT against the Bears, “believing I can’t miss. … I’m sure people will say that’s a dangerous throw and it’s aggressive, but that’s the way I’m going to play.”

The throw was in the middle of the field, with multiple defenders around, Mike McCarthy said this

“I want him to take that throw,” Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy said of the interception before halftime last Thursday. “We just got to get the ball there a little quicker. So it’s on the throw, and the timing. Those are competitive interceptions. It’s the decision ones that you go, ‘Whoa, we don’t want those.’ And Dak is a good decision-maker.

In the beginning of the season, McCarthy said this:

“Let’s be honest: In Kellen’s time as a coordinator, he’s been able to play very, very aggressive. But we’re in a phase right now that we’ve got to be a little smarter in certain situations. That’s all part of growing as a play caller,”

https://www.on3.com/pro/news/mike-m...-moore-offensive-play-calling-dallas-cowboys/

Look at how much Mike McCarthy flipped after the season. Moore was too aggressive and the reason for the TOs AFTER THE SEASON, but he’s selling his play calling with Brian as aggressive.


https://www.sportskeeda.com/amp/nfl...wants-play-attacking-scheme-dak-prescott-2023

 

[kskboys]

it's an agenda.....I hope he gets over it.

You're starting to sound quite pathetic now.

 

[kskboys]

Here he Dak after the Bears game:



The throw was in the middle of the field, with multiple defenders around, Mike McCarthy said this



In the beginning of the season, McCarthy said this:




https://www.on3.com/pro/news/mike-m...-moore-offensive-play-calling-dallas-cowboys/

Look at how much Mike McCarthy flipped after the season. Moore was too aggressive and the reason for the TOs AFTER THE SEASON, but he’s selling his play calling with Brian as aggressive.


https://www.sportskeeda.com/amp/nfl...wants-play-attacking-scheme-dak-prescott-2023

It's quite obvious that MM did not care for KMo's playcalling. Couldn't say it publicly, of course, as I'm sure it was part of his HC agreement w/ Jerry.

This season, we will find out exactly how much MM had to do w/ playcalling w/ KMo. I thought it was obvious that it was pretty much zilch, but hey, who knows.

 

[Captain-Crash]

You're starting to sound quite pathetic now.

you can do better than this. come on, name-calling. I would expect more from you but i was at the old forum where you were as biased too.

Do better.

 

[blueblood70]

Here he Dak after the Bears game:



The throw was in the middle of the field, with multiple defenders around, Mike McCarthy said this



In the beginning of the season, McCarthy said this:




https://www.on3.com/pro/news/mike-m...-moore-offensive-play-calling-dallas-cowboys/

Look at how much Mike McCarthy flipped after the season. Moore was too aggressive and the reason for the TOs AFTER THE SEASON, but he’s selling his play calling with Brian as aggressive.


https://www.sportskeeda.com/amp/nfl...wants-play-attacking-scheme-dak-prescott-2023

you have the right thought process but the wrong conclusion those interceptions didn't just happen because of being too aggressive it was too aggressive with the staff of players they had at wide receiver and tight end.. So it was the wrong play calling due to the roster we had I mean if it was 2020 ones roster then go for it but when you have guys that can't get separation which is a well known fact it's all in black and white and also balls hit them in the hands if they're not like brought over and handed to them they may not catch it that was the problem with the interceptions..

And by the way I mean I can think of three interceptions right off the top of my head that had nothing to do with the receivers or the quarterback they had everything to do with the offensive line they had one tip ball at the line because the offensive line got pushed back into Prescott and the ball got tipped and intercepted also the one where his arm got hit on a follow through that sailed over Dalton schultz's head in the Jacksonville game also not on the quarterback that's on the offensive line and then you have the one that he gets his jersey tugged from behind as he follows through , it's hard to complete a pass when the offensive line gets pushed back into you and either the ball gets tipped your arm gets hit or your jersey gets grabbed.. So there were other reasons for some of those interceptions a lot we're on the receivers in the route running in the route calling and they're bad hands but again there are other instances at least three I can think of they were on the offensive line.

 

[OGSixshooter]

some of are way way overthinking this.

its football, its year to year and not worrying about oddball math thats too analytical. Whatever is going to happen will happen and we just watch,.,hes not known to throw a lot of INTs i doubt he will be at 6 but if he plays 17 games and throws 15 I'm fine with it.,.

it will be less but hopefully that equates to 35 tds and 15 Ints. he was at 37-10 in 21 but i doubt math goes into odds and what now. Its just circumstances in games and so many moving pieces its hard to control. Matthew Stafford won a super bowl what with 41 touchdowns and 17 interceptions? he threw 3 INTs in the playoffs ,2 interceptions in the Superbowl THats 20!. that's a fact we need a better team, that's it.. the rams were so good they can afford to cover up some of those interceptions. so we need to put a better team on the field in the playoffs against the better teams , it's that simple. get a better run game and a better o....rm better against the better defenses...dak will show up with that and win !

How can anyone - WITH A STRAIGHT FACE - say Dak is a top QB but they're fine with 15 interceptions in 17 games?!? That's roughly one per game which is an ACTUAL INTERCEPTION MACHINE! Meanwhile, cast off Jared Goff has thrown one INT in his last dozens games (give/take) and hasn't thrown one in over 300 passes.

No, you can't "bake in" 15 INTs for your pet QB and then call say he's above criticism when he demands top dollar.

Well, if you're a fan who is in love you can.