Dak Prescott or Trey Lance? Part I: Worst-case scenario for the Cowboys

[nate dizzle]

Yep, there's so much written about Rush not being a starter and now criticism of Lance, it makes you think there's a portion of the fan base that doesnt want any pressure on Dak.

They definitely don't. They know he can't handle pressure. We've all seen what that looks like.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Sorry but to me the worst case scenario is Dak presents the same high pressure issues as always and they resign him anyway. Lance is irrelevant at that point.

Best case is Dak grows and becomes an elite QB who can handle high pressure situations and he earns his demand.
Second best case is Dak accepts he is not elite and accepts a ~$40M AAV deal or less.
Third best case is Dak treads, doesn't lower his demands, and walks but Lance resigns and develops into a QB who can contribute to winning games or better with a contract of ~$25M.
Fourth best is both Lance and Dak do not work out but a merc QB of talent becomes available like Stafford a few years ago.
Fifth best is Dak walks, Lance fails, and the Cowboys are able to secure a top QB in the draft after strategic tanking in 2025 to restart in 2026.

 

[CowboyoWales]

Sorry but to me the worst case scenario is Dak presents the same high pressure issues as always and they resign him anyway. Lance is irrelevant at that point.

Best case is Dak grows and becomes an elite QB who can handle high pressure situations and he earns his demand.
Second best case is Dak accepts he is not elite and accepts a ~$40M AAV deal or less.
Third best case is Dak treads, doesn't lower his demands, and walks but Lance resigns and develops into a QB who can contribute to winning games or better with a contract of ~$25M.
Fourth best is both Lance and Dak do not work out but a merc QB of talent becomes available like Stafford a few years ago.
Fifth best is Dak walks, Lance fails, and the Cowboys are able to secure a top QB in the draft after strategic tanking in 2025 to restart in 2026.

I wish all your posts were as coherent as that one .

 

[MarkP88]

If the Cowboys resign Dak, the Trey Lance trade looks like Jerry just threw a 4th round draft pick in the fireplace.

I guess we will see a lot of Lance this coming pre-season but looking good in ps games is not often a clear indication of readiness for regular season success. PS games usually feature defenders who will either never play a down of NFL regular season football or will only be serving as ST’ers and backups.

Agreed, and all this talk of Lance drives me crazy. He's only under contract for this year! The only way the Cowboys will have any real inkling about whether he is any good is if he gets extended playing time in the regular season. If he lights it up, he'll have plenty of suitors and can go wherever he wants. If he doesn't, well then, confirmation of a totally wasted 4th rounder. My money is on the latter, so maybe it's academic, but to me the acquisition of Lance was a complete waste of resources.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

Not if they can showcase Trey in preseason and trade him later for a decent draft pick.

If we can showcase him enough to interest other teams, maybe we should keep him. Qbs dont grow on trees.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

One thing is for certain Trey will be given his shot and Dak is history after this season.

 

[CowboyoWales]

Agreed, and all this talk of Lance drives me crazy. He's only under contract for this year! The only way the Cowboys will have any real inkling about whether he is any good is if he gets extended playing time in the regular season. If he lights it up, he'll have plenty of suitors and can go wherever he wants. If he doesn't, well then, confirmation of a totally wasted 4th rounder. My money is on the latter, so maybe it's academic, but to me the acquisition of Lance was a complete waste of resources.

So if we didn't have Lance we would have no negotiating position (not that they hold many cards atm).
What if we can't get a deal done on Dak? What if, as seems probable, we struggle in '24. Does Dak bench himself (for health or not to show negative gameplay)?
Nobody really thinks Lance is the answer, but then again he is a very young QB, even compared to this draft class and he may be just a placeholder....or are you a Rush man?

 

[Coogiguy03]

Serious question.

Why do you think getting rid of all our best players will make us a better team in the long run?

What have you seen from this FO that gives you that impression?

If we are assuming Jerry and Stephen are clueless buffoons, then why would removing the few good players they've hit on result in more playoff wins?

Because change is good

 

[Coogiguy03]

I WAS GOING TO POST this story yesterday

 

[TwentyOne]

If the Cowboys resign Dak, the Trey Lance trade looks like Jerry just threw a 4th round draft pick in the fireplace.

I guess we will see a lot of Lance this coming pre-season but looking good in ps games is not often a clear indication of readiness for regular season success. PS games usually feature defenders who will either never play a down of NFL regular season football or will only be serving as ST’ers and backups.

The depends on the contract and the way TL develops. And in essence his (TLs) value has only very little to do with Daks contract and is more about his own development.

You can always trade him and if he shows good development you may get more than a 4th rounder for him. Or you can use him as a backup.

The problem i see is that we are not able to develop QBs.

But the way we are not able to draft players in the last few years i prefer trades like this more than drafting. At least we decided to invest something in the most important position in that sport.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

Yep, there's so much written about Rush not being a starter and now criticism of Lance, it makes you think there's a portion of the fan base that doesnt want any pressure on Dak.

Dak has been coddled for a couple years now at least. A handful of people here think dak needs their Crusader protection, like hes a little child. Ive never seen anything like it.

They tell tell us "support dak in everyway or find another team". While totally shredding coop and trey.

Or this gem: "we will spend 20 years recovering from losing dak"

Something is wrong there, it makes no sense.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

I WAS GOING TO POST this story yesterday

No likes for you!

 

[sunalsorises]

If Trey Lance walks after the season what does that look like for a comp pick?

 

[Cmac]

Has the Cooper Rush Fan Club disbanded? No mention of Cooper anymore.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

Agreed, and all this talk of Lance drives me crazy. He's only under contract for this year! The only way the Cowboys will have any real inkling about whether he is any good is if he gets extended playing time in the regular season. If he lights it up, he'll have plenty of suitors and can go wherever he wants. If he doesn't, well then, confirmation of a totally wasted 4th rounder. My money is on the latter, so maybe it's academic, but to me the acquisition of Lance was a complete waste of resources.

If he lights it up....why not keep him?

 

[SultanOfSix]

Has the Cooper Rush Fan Club disbanded? No mention of Cooper anymore.

There was no Cooper Rush “fan club”. He was merely used as an example to show that the team had enough talent to win with half-decent QB play for the amount of dollars he was getting paid as compared to Dak. No one thought that he could take the team to the SB. But neither can Dak, and that was the point.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

There was no Cooper Rush “fan club”. He was merely used as an example to show that the team had enough talent to win with half-defeat QB play for the amount of dollars he was getting paid as compared to Dak. No one thought that he could take the team to the SB. But neither can Dak, and that was the point.

Thats money right there....well done keepin it real.

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

Trey Lance gets a shot once Daks gone after this season.

If he doesn’t show promise then we draft a QB in the 2026 draft.

It’s not complicated.

 

[Flamma]

WORST CASE SCENARIO - Move on from Dak, Trey isn’t the answer

That's only the worst case scenario if Lance isn't the answer, but he's good enough to get us 8 wins. If Lance isn't the answer and we win 3 games, that best case scenario.

 

[Coogiguy03]

No likes for you!

I get more than you get!! They love "thoughts"