Dak's Value and Russel Wilson's 1st Extension

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by J12B, Apr 17, 2019.

  1. J12B

    J12B Well-Known Member

    1,665 Messages
    3,645 Likes Received
    On July 31, 2015, Russel Wilson signed a contract extension worth 87.6 million/61.5 million guaranteed for 4 years with the Seattle Seahawks. This was after winning a Superbowl several months earlier of course and as he was entering the final year of his rookie deal. Wilson did everything he needed to do and had the LOB playing on the other side and a dominating RB, Marshawn Lynch, behind him.

    Let's take a look at Wilson's first 3 year's in the league and compare them to Dak's first 3 years:

    Wilson - Passing
    2012 26TD, 10INT, 3118 yards, 64.1%, 7.9AVG
    2013 26TD, 9INT, 3357 yards, 63.1%, 8.2AVG
    2014 20TD, 7INT, 3457 yards, 63.1%, 7.7AVG

    Dak - Passing
    2016 23TD, 4INT, 3,667 yards, 67.8%, 8.0 AVG
    2017 22TD, 13INT, 3324 yards, 62.9%, 6.8 AVG
    2018 22TD, 8INT, 3885 yards, 67.7%, 7.4 AVG

    What about running the ball as a QB?

    Wilson - Rushing
    2012 489 yards, 5.2 AVG, 4TD, 2Fumbles
    2013 539 yards, 5.6 AVG, 1TD, 2Fumbles
    2014 849 yards, 7.2 AVG, 6TD, 5Fumbles

    Dak - Rushing
    2016 282 yards, 4.9 AVG, 6TD, 3Fumbles
    2017 357 yards, 6.3 AVG, 6TD, 0Fumbles
    2018 305 yards, 4.1 AVG, 6TD, 4Fumbles

    Based on these numbers, I'd say Wilson had a better start to his career-but- Dak is certainly close. Dak might even have an argument that he is the better passer as he out produced Wilson in yards and percentage completion. Wilson is far more mobile compared to Dak. But again, Dak is close in effectiveness.

    So, Wilson's 2015 deal should be a benchmark in determining Dak's value today. The QB market has changed with a couple of teams overpaying in free agency (49ers and Garappolo, Vikings and Cousins), but hopefully those deals do not influence Dak's deal all that much.

    My guess is a 4 year 104 million/75 million guaranteed deal is happening fairly soon, definitely before the start of the season for the Quarteback of the Dallas Cowboys.
    JoeKing, robbieruff, 817Gill and 2 others like this.
  2. Bullflop

    Bullflop Well-Known Member

    13,158 Messages
    15,786 Likes Received
    Dak stands to get a healthy raise in salary -- that much is a certainty. The only question to be answered is how much it will end up being. I don't believe it will be (nor should be) as much as Wilson got in light of not being quite the threat that he is. There's no getting around the fact that RW has a Super Bowl to his credit, as Stephen pointed out lately. When all is said and done, I think both the Cowboys and Dak will be satisfied with their contract.
    J12B likes this.
  3. WillieBeamen

    WillieBeamen BoysfanfromNY

    5,783 Messages
    14,155 Likes Received
    Give him the contract Russell got after winning the SB. Dont go above that
  4. CowboyRoy

    CowboyRoy Well-Known Member

    18,642 Messages
    11,631 Likes Received
    Most reasoning is sound, but its not 2015, its 2019. And unfortunately some fool doled out close to 30 million for Kousins and Garrappolo. And now 35 million for Wilson.

    So I think it will wind up being more in the 27-28 million range per year.
  5. Streetwise

    Streetwise Well-Known Member

    8,800 Messages
    9,296 Likes Received
    That literally makes no sense.
    ItzKelz, 817Gill and rocyaice like this.
  6. Streetwise

    Streetwise Well-Known Member

    8,800 Messages
    9,296 Likes Received
    Yeah. And wait until Mahomes gets extended...Yikes.
  7. Section446

    Section446 Well-Known Member

    8,473 Messages
    5,455 Likes Received
    He's a $20 million a year type guy. He's not a franchise QB, but you can win with him.
    Jimbo69 and CATCH17 like this.
  8. Kage

    Kage Well-Known Member

    306 Messages
    657 Likes Received
    He will get minimum 27 million.

    I'd prefer him in the 22-24 range, but life goes on.
    DoctorChicken and J12B like this.
  9. visionary

    visionary Well-Known Member

    16,417 Messages
    14,110 Likes Received
    Dak is a better passer than Wilson


    And you want people to take you seriously
  10. Jarv

    Jarv Loud pipes saves lives.

    9,792 Messages
    3,348 Likes Received
    Agreed, comparing 2015 cap numbers and 2019 numbers are not apples to apples.

    The offset is that Wilson won a superbowl before the extension and Dak didn't.
  11. Brax

    Brax Well-Known Member

    1,157 Messages
    994 Likes Received
    When Dak has 2 super bowls under his belt you can start to compare him, stats are useful tools but not in this case.RW wins games by himself Dak needs the supporting cast. RW is a great QB Dak is still learning how to be a consistent QB, to me there is no comparison to be made and if Dak was the QB that RW is paying him wouldn't be a problem.
  12. Bleu Star

    Bleu Star Bye Felicia!

    33,288 Messages
    18,532 Likes Received
    He won't get paid anything near what Russ got paid. But he'll get his. I still think it'll be somewhere in the neighborhood of 18 to 20 mil per. 40 something guaranteed.
    4 year. 80 mil. 45 guaranteed. That's my call.

    A fair contract that rewards early success and gives him something to shoot for in that next contract. Sounds appropriate to me.

    Lastly, while Dak wants his and is definitely confident in himself, he knows he is nowhere near Russ in terms of talent. Still a ways to go... But he can get there if he puts his head down & works.

  13. Kage

    Kage Well-Known Member

    306 Messages
    657 Likes Received
    Qb contracts are "who's next, not who's best"

    Unfortunately, Dak is next.
    DallasEast and Cover 2 like this.
  14. sean10mm

    sean10mm Well-Known Member

    1,240 Messages
    1,787 Likes Received
    You can't compare 2015 contract numbers to 2019 contract numbers. There has been way too much salary cap inflation since then.

    2015 salary cap: $143m
    2019 salary cap: $188m (+31%)

    So ONLY based on the salary cap itself going up, Wilson's 2015 contract in 2019 actually works out to 4 years/$115m ($81m guaranteed), $29m per.

    But that's actually understating it a little.

    Why? Because the % of the cap spent on quarterbacks compared to all other positions has gone up, too. So not only has the salary cap pie gotten bigger, but quarterbacks on average have taken a bigger share of that bigger pie. So that number I posted isn't really the 2019 version of the 2015 contract - it's still a bit too small. Making matters worse, there are really only two kinds of QB contract you see now - dirt cheap (for rookies and "Ryan Leaf on oxycontin" tier failures) and gigantic (for everyone else).

    Kirk "0-1 in the playoffs" Cousins got $84m GUARANTEED from just a 3 year contract lmao, there is no way Dak is taking $45m guaranteed over 4 years. This isn't even a comment on how good Dak is, it's just the reality of the market.
  15. JohnsKey19

    JohnsKey19 Well-Known Member

    12,443 Messages
    6,826 Likes Received
    Basically, in a nutshell. Although I don't think he'll get 35 million per like Wilson. I'd guess something between 28-30.
    817Gill likes this.
  16. conner01

    conner01 Well-Known Member

    12,569 Messages
    9,716 Likes Received
    I’m hoping for 25 but a 2015 contract means nothing at all
    glimmerman likes this.
  17. Hawkeye0202

    Hawkeye0202 Well-Known Member

    6,402 Messages
    10,040 Likes Received
    Good post!
    DallasEast and 817Gill like this.
  18. glimmerman

    glimmerman Well-Known Member

    10,197 Messages
    10,345 Likes Received
    I have to admit that the stats look good. But there is more to it then that. I am sure it will be fair for both sides. I am anxious to see how high his agent starts. And how low we start.
  19. glimmerman

    glimmerman Well-Known Member

    10,197 Messages
    10,345 Likes Received
    I think that’s where SJ starts. 22-25. Daks agent starts at 30-32. His agent can’t expect to get 35+ for a 3 year player that hasn’t won a SB yet.

    Maybe reach a deal at 27.5.
    817Gill and conner01 like this.
  20. AbeBeta

    AbeBeta Well-Known Member

    31,131 Messages
    6,626 Likes Received
    All you folks calling for 22 mill or 18 mill are year need your heads checked. When Garrapalo gets 27.5 per year with very few starts under his belt, you've gotta see that as the lowball initial offer.
    817Gill and JustChip like this.

Share This Page