Dallas Home Record in AT&T Stadium is 37-35. Why?

[JoeKing]

Put together a playoff team and we will win at home most of the time. Until then you can't expect to win home games just because you are at home.

 

[America's Cowboy]

Also because Jerry memorialized Eli "little bird in his mouth" Manning's disrespectful signature and 1st game upset at new stadium note to remain on the opposing team's lockerroom wall. Visiting opposing teams see it and get overly pumped up to keep the Eli curse going.

 

[Swanny]

TLDR – New stadium psychs the team out from time to time

Why is Dallas .500 at the new stadium? I think Bob Sturm is correct in his Athletic article that turnovers are the reason Dallas loses more at home, specifically, the Cowboys commit more turnovers at home than on the road. The question becomes, why do the Cowboys commit more turnovers at home? Let’s review some theories.

1. Crowd Noise – How does a quiet crowd cause the Cowboy to commit fumbles and interceptions? I’m not saying the crowd there is quiet, they have been insanely loud at the games I have attended there, but it is often called a quiet stadium when compared to others in the NFL. I can see how that might affect the other team’s offense, but not the Cowboys offense.

2. Strong Home Schedule – Opponents and venue are determined by a formula that applies to all teams. The NFL is not handpicking strong home opponents for Dallas. The NFL does pick the timing of the games, in other words, when they are played. So, it is possible the stronger opponents show up later in the season, but honestly if they played the Patriots in October or November or whenever they are still pretty tough. I don’t see how that makes much difference. Also Cowboy opponents have thrown 54 INTs in Arlington the same span when Cowboys have thrown 76, with same lighting conditions etc.

3. Bad Luck – we all remember the passes that bounced off Cowboy hands that were intercepted and the ball that Witten kicked to the Giants and the year that Murray seemingly fumbled every game, but why does this happen at home so much more than on the road? We may as well look at jersey color if we want to discuss luck.

4. Aggressive game plans at home – This is an interesting one because this time period spans various eras. We have 1.5 seasons of Phillips and 7.5 seasons of Garrett. We have four seasons of “best OL in the league” and five seasons of not-so-hot OL. One thing stands out – in 2014, 2016, and 2017, Dallas passed fewer than 500 times per season total, indicating more conservative game plans. Dallas still passed more at home, but only by 20 passes per season on average. Every other year in this stretch, they passed more than 500 times total. Overall, they passed 250 more times at home than away, especially in the years 2010, 2012, 2013, and 2015. For those seasons, they averaged 70 more passes at home games than in away games. So there is a big difference between being confident in the run game (2014, 2016, 2017) and not (the other seasons), but – 2014 and 2017 were still below average years in home wins even with a more conservative game plan, so why is that?

So, what is going on here? Of the nine seasons in question, Dallas is below average (average being 57%) in home winning percentage in five of those years (2010, 2012, 2014, 2015, and 2017), although some of the above average years had some tight home wins. Of the five below-average seasons, there are 2 1/2 Romo years and 2 1/2 non-Romo years with one of those being Prescott. Dallas averaged 55 more home passes each season for those seasons, but that includes a year (2012) with 98 more home passes and a year (2014) with only 18 more home passes.

Taking a closer look at those “bad” years:
In 2010, Dallas committed multiple turnovers in all six home losses.
In 2012, Dallas committed multiple turnovers in three of the four home losses.
In 2014, Dallas committed multiple turnovers in all four home losses.
In 2015, Dallas committed multiple turnovers in four of the seven home losses and one win was a Romo miracle to overcome -3 TO margin.
In 2017, Dallas committed multiple turnovers in all five home losses, no turnovers in the three home wins.

Looking a little deeper, over the entire nine-season period, the number of fumbles (or non-interception TOs) are virtually even for home and away games, with 45 home fumbles and 46 away fumbles. There were a lot of home fumbles in 2012 though, but overall fumbles are pretty even in good and bad years.

That means the TO differences are due entirely to interceptions and these interceptions are significantly greater at home during the five “bad” years in terms of home losses. Every single year between 2009 and 2017, the road INTs were 8 or fewer and 2015 was the only year with 8. Five out of the nine years the home INTs were 9 or greater and those are all the years that Dallas was below average in home wins. Anytime they had an INT PCT of 3.1% or greater on passes at home, they had a below average home record.

Season Home INT Away INT Difference Home Win %
2010 12 7 -5 25%
2012 12 7 -5 50%
2014 9 2 -7 50%
2015 14 8 -6 12.5%
2017 9 4 -5 37.5%
Other Years 20 19 -1 72%

By contrast from 2001 through 2008, the Cowboys home/road INT split was 67/90. Since moving to the new stadium, it is 76/47, a serious increase in home INTs. Still, in the seasons where the home and road INT differences are four or less or the home INT PCT is less than 3.1%, the Cowboys have an above average home win rate. This is not just a Romo problem, as it spans multiple QBs, and even in what was Romo’s best year of 2014. Romo actually helped the record with several miracle wins in this stretch.

Why in those particular years, did the Cowboys throw so many picks at home? 16 of the 19 multiple INT losses at home were in the five seasons in the table above. What do these 16 games have in common? For one thing, football is a team game and other parts of the team were not hitting on all cylinders in those losses.

1. The running game was weak. There were only 7 Cowboy rushing TDs in those 16 games. Two of those were in the game that Dez’s finger landed out of bounds. Also, these games averaged 4.7 first downs rushing by Dallas. The Cowboys did better than that 7 times in 2016 alone.

2. The Cowboys trailed badly. In seven of these games (44%), they had allowed at least 20 points at halftime, something that only happens 15% of the time in all Cowboy games of 2009-2017. They were behind by an average of 10.2 points after three quarters in all 16 of these games.

3. The Cowboys QB was under pressure. They were sacked 2.6 times per game.

4. The opponent passing rating was over 95 in 12 of the 16 games for 75%. FYI, during this same time period when the opponent passing rating was over 95, the Cowboys won 15 games (11%) total in nine full seasons regardless of location.

All of these things mean that things weren’t working overall, and the Cowboys had to pass and take chances in the passing game. In 14 of the 16 games (88%), the Cowboys passed 30 or times. In all home games in this period, Dallas had 30 or more pass attempts 71% of the time. (Road games were 61%). More pass attempts, especially when trailing, = more picks.

The numbers may show what happened, but why is still a mystery. All other things being equal, the only constant is the stadium. My guess, is that with the new stadium came increased pressure to perform overall, especially in a time of unprecedented scrutiny of fans and media and money. Occasionally, this pressure gets to the players and coaches when things aren’t going right overall and things snowball from there. More risky plays are called, passes are forced, receivers bobble, and then we see the Cowboys fall behind and lose. This seems to happen in streaks.

What do you think of that explanation?

Thanks Pro Football Reference
pfref.com/tiny/E3itk

Because they have been a very avg team since it has opened.

 

[Zekeats]

THIS^^^^

Because money hungry seat holders sell off their reserved seats to opposing fans, thus turning Cowboys Stadium into an opposing team's crowd advantage "away" stadium like this picture shows the stadium overwhelmingly full of 49ers fans.

LOL. At first I was just looking at the two idiots to the left. That is why you got the like, not the red in the background.

 

[atlantacowboy]

Ever actually been to a game? Its about the crowd not the configuration of seats. Huge swaths of the PSL's are owned by large corporations who have no rooting interest other than to use the seats to entertain clients. The PSL and game tickets are so pricey that a lot of people sell their seats to pay for them which is why it is not unusual to see a huge number of opposing fans. So, between the opposing fans and neutral fans, not a lot of home field advantage.

 

[America's Cowboy]

LOL. At first I was just looking at the two idiots to the left. That is why you got the like, not the red in the background.

 

[InTheZone]

1. No defense (pre 2017)
2. No proper adjustments in game
3. Predictable playcalling - 3rd and long and not one single short-mid inside crossing route
4. Perfect conditions for an opposing passing game since we have no defense (I'd like to believe we have the worst opponent passer QB rating at home since the stadium opened, if it's possible to verify that. Brandon Carr definitely was of no help, but somehow the team justified keeping him around on that contract....)
5. Opponents Super Bowl
6. Home crowd that simply can't sthu when our offense is on the field, yet is dead silent for the opposition. Either they're F.A.Fs (Fake A** Fans) or opposing fans that overwhelm the home crowd.

 

[DallasEast]

Jerry Jones and original seat owners bear responsibility for the number of opposing team fans’ occupying large numbers of seats on gameday. However, it is lack of execution on critical drives by players and ineffectiveness of coaches to adjust appropriately per certain situations that are the main reasons for the team’s home stadium record. It is not unique to football but some fans believe other fans hold more influence over wins and losses than what actually occurs in reality.

 

[jazzcat22]

THIS^^^^

Because money hungry seat holders sell off their reserved seats to opposing fans, thus turning Cowboys Stadium into an opposing team's crowd advantage "away" stadium like this picture shows the stadium overwhelmingly full of 49ers fans.

This is total BS.
Ticket holders 95% of the time have no idea who is buying the tickets.
Many season ticket holders live out of state, or a good 10 hour drive. So can't make it to every game and must sell their tickets.

When I had mine I went to every game, at Texas Stadium as well as AT&T Stadium. Until I had to start traveling to my work again. I was out of state 90% of the time. I got to 1 game a year and sold the rest of them. Except the Detroit playoff game, I did come back specifically for that game.

I sold them, the PSL's right before the 2016 season. The person that bought them...lived in Seattle.

 

[jazzcat22]

Jerry Jones and original seat owners bear responsibility for the number of opposing team fans’ occupying large numbers of seats on gameday. However, it is lack of execution on critical drives by players and ineffectiveness of coaches to adjust appropriately per certain situations that are the main reasons for the team’s home stadium record. It is not unique to football but some fans believe other fans hold more influence over wins and losses than what actually occurs in reality.

No they do not. People need to get over this BS. See my other post on this.

 

[Blackrain]

Who can say. I still put the majority of the blame on coaching.

This x 10

 

[America's Cowboy]

This is total BS.
Ticket holders 95% of the time have no idea who is buying the tickets.
Many season ticket holders live out of state, or a good 10 hour drive. So can't make it to every game and must sell their tickets.

When I had mine I went to every game, at Texas Stadium as well as AT&T Stadium. Until I had to start traveling to my work again. I was out of state 90% of the time. I got to 1 game a year and sold the rest of them. Except the Detroit playoff game, I did come back specifically for that game.

I sold them, the PSL's right before the 2016 season. The person that bought them...lived in Seattle.

So the picture is a lie? Look at all of the seats colored in red. If you want to get upset, get upset with Jerry for refusing to create a way to determine to which team fans you are selling your seat tickets to. So, yes, for the meantime, season ticket holders are responsible.

 

[DallasEast]

No they do not. People need to get over this BS. See my other post on this.

You are correct. Original seat owners may not knowingly sell their seats to certain individuals. They make their seats available to the open market.

The resell ticket market is composed of a variety of buyers. Buyers can be home fans. Buyers can be opposing fans. Buyers can be people who are not fans of any particular team. The market is diverse. However, the resell ticket market, just like the majority of goods and services markets, is composed of individuals who purchased goods or services from sellers.

Perhaps intent should not be questioned. I am not doing so with this post. That said, I have one question:

How does any fan, regardless of team affiliation, have an opportunity to acquire a seat previously purchased by a someone, who identifies their fandom for a team associated with the venue where the seat is located?

 

[Hardline]

Opposing teams look forward to playing there. They mark it on their calendars.
No one looks forward to to going to Green Bay.

And all the art exhibits.

 

[jazzcat22]

So the picture is a lie? Look at all of the seats colored in red. If you want to get upset, get upset with Jerry for refusing to create a way to determine to which team fans you are selling your seat tickets to. So, yes, for the meantime, season ticket holders are responsible.

I am not upset at all. Just stating about the misconception that season ticket holders sell to opposing fans, as if they do it on purpose. Been to a Cowboys road game, there are instances where this happened with those games as the SF game happened here.

 

[jazzcat22]

Opposing teams look forward to playing there. They mark it on their calendars.
No one looks forward to to going to Green Bay.

And all the art exhibits.

Maybe they come here for the Art as opposed to wanting to play here.

 

[northerncowboynation]

TLDR – New stadium psychs the team out from time to time

Why is Dallas .500 at the new stadium? I think Bob Sturm is correct in his Athletic article that turnovers are the reason Dallas loses more at home, specifically, the Cowboys commit more turnovers at home than on the road. The question becomes, why do the Cowboys commit more turnovers at home? Let’s review some theories.

1. Crowd Noise – How does a quiet crowd cause the Cowboy to commit fumbles and interceptions? I’m not saying the crowd there is quiet, they have been insanely loud at the games I have attended there, but it is often called a quiet stadium when compared to others in the NFL. I can see how that might affect the other team’s offense, but not the Cowboys offense.

2. Strong Home Schedule – Opponents and venue are determined by a formula that applies to all teams. The NFL is not handpicking strong home opponents for Dallas. The NFL does pick the timing of the games, in other words, when they are played. So, it is possible the stronger opponents show up later in the season, but honestly if they played the Patriots in October or November or whenever they are still pretty tough. I don’t see how that makes much difference. Also Cowboy opponents have thrown 54 INTs in Arlington the same span when Cowboys have thrown 76, with same lighting conditions etc.

3. Bad Luck – we all remember the passes that bounced off Cowboy hands that were intercepted and the ball that Witten kicked to the Giants and the year that Murray seemingly fumbled every game, but why does this happen at home so much more than on the road? We may as well look at jersey color if we want to discuss luck.

4. Aggressive game plans at home – This is an interesting one because this time period spans various eras. We have 1.5 seasons of Phillips and 7.5 seasons of Garrett. We have four seasons of “best OL in the league” and five seasons of not-so-hot OL. One thing stands out – in 2014, 2016, and 2017, Dallas passed fewer than 500 times per season total, indicating more conservative game plans. Dallas still passed more at home, but only by 20 passes per season on average. Every other year in this stretch, they passed more than 500 times total. Overall, they passed 250 more times at home than away, especially in the years 2010, 2012, 2013, and 2015. For those seasons, they averaged 70 more passes at home games than in away games. So there is a big difference between being confident in the run game (2014, 2016, 2017) and not (the other seasons), but – 2014 and 2017 were still below average years in home wins even with a more conservative game plan, so why is that?

So, what is going on here? Of the nine seasons in question, Dallas is below average (average being 57%) in home winning percentage in five of those years (2010, 2012, 2014, 2015, and 2017), although some of the above average years had some tight home wins. Of the five below-average seasons, there are 2 1/2 Romo years and 2 1/2 non-Romo years with one of those being Prescott. Dallas averaged 55 more home passes each season for those seasons, but that includes a year (2012) with 98 more home passes and a year (2014) with only 18 more home passes.

Taking a closer look at those “bad” years:
In 2010, Dallas committed multiple turnovers in all six home losses.
In 2012, Dallas committed multiple turnovers in three of the four home losses.
In 2014, Dallas committed multiple turnovers in all four home losses.
In 2015, Dallas committed multiple turnovers in four of the seven home losses and one win was a Romo miracle to overcome -3 TO margin.
In 2017, Dallas committed multiple turnovers in all five home losses, no turnovers in the three home wins.

Looking a little deeper, over the entire nine-season period, the number of fumbles (or non-interception TOs) are virtually even for home and away games, with 45 home fumbles and 46 away fumbles. There were a lot of home fumbles in 2012 though, but overall fumbles are pretty even in good and bad years.

That means the TO differences are due entirely to interceptions and these interceptions are significantly greater at home during the five “bad” years in terms of home losses. Every single year between 2009 and 2017, the road INTs were 8 or fewer and 2015 was the only year with 8. Five out of the nine years the home INTs were 9 or greater and those are all the years that Dallas was below average in home wins. Anytime they had an INT PCT of 3.1% or greater on passes at home, they had a below average home record.

Season Home INT Away INT Difference Home Win %
2010 12 7 -5 25%
2012 12 7 -5 50%
2014 9 2 -7 50%
2015 14 8 -6 12.5%
2017 9 4 -5 37.5%
Other Years 20 19 -1 72%

By contrast from 2001 through 2008, the Cowboys home/road INT split was 67/90. Since moving to the new stadium, it is 76/47, a serious increase in home INTs. Still, in the seasons where the home and road INT differences are four or less or the home INT PCT is less than 3.1%, the Cowboys have an above average home win rate. This is not just a Romo problem, as it spans multiple QBs, and even in what was Romo’s best year of 2014. Romo actually helped the record with several miracle wins in this stretch.

Why in those particular years, did the Cowboys throw so many picks at home? 16 of the 19 multiple INT losses at home were in the five seasons in the table above. What do these 16 games have in common? For one thing, football is a team game and other parts of the team were not hitting on all cylinders in those losses.

1. The running game was weak. There were only 7 Cowboy rushing TDs in those 16 games. Two of those were in the game that Dez’s finger landed out of bounds. Also, these games averaged 4.7 first downs rushing by Dallas. The Cowboys did better than that 7 times in 2016 alone.

2. The Cowboys trailed badly. In seven of these games (44%), they had allowed at least 20 points at halftime, something that only happens 15% of the time in all Cowboy games of 2009-2017. They were behind by an average of 10.2 points after three quarters in all 16 of these games.

3. The Cowboys QB was under pressure. They were sacked 2.6 times per game.

4. The opponent passing rating was over 95 in 12 of the 16 games for 75%. FYI, during this same time period when the opponent passing rating was over 95, the Cowboys won 15 games (11%) total in nine full seasons regardless of location.

All of these things mean that things weren’t working overall, and the Cowboys had to pass and take chances in the passing game. In 14 of the 16 games (88%), the Cowboys passed 30 or times. In all home games in this period, Dallas had 30 or more pass attempts 71% of the time. (Road games were 61%). More pass attempts, especially when trailing, = more picks.

The numbers may show what happened, but why is still a mystery. All other things being equal, the only constant is the stadium. My guess, is that with the new stadium came increased pressure to perform overall, especially in a time of unprecedented scrutiny of fans and media and money. Occasionally, this pressure gets to the players and coaches when things aren’t going right overall and things snowball from there. More risky plays are called, passes are forced, receivers bobble, and then we see the Cowboys fall behind and lose. This seems to happen in streaks.

What do you think of that explanation?

Thanks Pro Football Reference
pfref.com/tiny/E3itk

Excellent post and very good question. They moved to AT&T stadium in 2009 right. So what I would like to see is what went on in Texas Stadium in 2006, 2007 and 2008. Romo years, correct. What were the stats (turnovers, interceptions etc) in 2006, 2007, 2008 with Romo at the helm versus 2009, 2010 and 2011. The teams were pretty much the same over those 6 years. Same QB, same offensive coordinator. Those are the 6 years I would like to compare in terms of take aways and give aways. I think you will find a little difference but probably not much. Those 6 years (3 at Texas Stadium from 2006-2008 and 3 at AT&T from 2009-2011) are the most valid comparisons. Same key players, same QB, same offensive scheme, same defensive scheme. Can you do that one for us Lurker? Make the comparison of those 6 years in terms of giveaways and takeaways? Yes, the W/L records will be different but i have my doubts that giveaways/takeaways were significantly different. Certainly the playoff records wouldn't be drastically different in those 6 years. Home record versus away would be interesting to see over those 6 years. It's kind of an apples to apples comparison

 

[noshame]

When you've put garbage on the field for the better part of 25 years, you are going to lose everywhere. Hopefully it's fixed, finally. Home record will take care of itself.

 

[CPanther95]

I am not upset at all. Jus stating bout the misconception that season ticket holders sell to opposing fans, as if they do it on purpose. Been to a Cowboys road game, there are instances where this happened with those games as the SF game happened here.

Agree.

There's no way to control who buys the tickets unless someone is willing to make a lot less on average by trying to arrange a private sale.

And not much Jerry can do. They didn't ask me who I was rooting for, but if they did and I missed out on tickets, I would have just said I was pulling for the Cowboys on my next try.

 

[The Natural]

Coaching/preparation
Candy *** crowd
No fear factor for opposing teams