TLDR – New stadium psychs the team out from time to time
Why is Dallas .500 at the new stadium? I think Bob Sturm is correct in his Athletic article that turnovers are the reason Dallas loses more at home, specifically, the Cowboys commit more turnovers at home than on the road. The question becomes, why do the Cowboys commit more turnovers at home? Let’s review some theories.
1. Crowd Noise – How does a quiet crowd cause the Cowboy to commit fumbles and interceptions? I’m not saying the crowd there is quiet, they have been insanely loud at the games I have attended there, but it is often called a quiet stadium when compared to others in the NFL. I can see how that might affect the other team’s offense, but not the Cowboys offense.
2. Strong Home Schedule – Opponents and venue are determined by a formula that applies to all teams. The NFL is not handpicking strong home opponents for Dallas. The NFL does pick the timing of the games, in other words, when they are played. So, it is possible the stronger opponents show up later in the season, but honestly if they played the Patriots in October or November or whenever they are still pretty tough. I don’t see how that makes much difference. Also Cowboy opponents have thrown 54 INTs in Arlington the same span when Cowboys have thrown 76, with same lighting conditions etc.
3. Bad Luck – we all remember the passes that bounced off Cowboy hands that were intercepted and the ball that Witten kicked to the Giants and the year that Murray seemingly fumbled every game, but why does this happen at home so much more than on the road? We may as well look at jersey color if we want to discuss luck.
4. Aggressive game plans at home – This is an interesting one because this time period spans various eras. We have 1.5 seasons of Phillips and 7.5 seasons of Garrett. We have four seasons of “best OL in the league” and five seasons of not-so-hot OL. One thing stands out – in 2014, 2016, and 2017, Dallas passed fewer than 500 times per season total, indicating more conservative game plans. Dallas still passed more at home, but only by 20 passes per season on average. Every other year in this stretch, they passed more than 500 times total. Overall, they passed 250 more times at home than away, especially in the years 2010, 2012, 2013, and 2015. For those seasons, they averaged 70 more passes at home games than in away games. So there is a big difference between being confident in the run game (2014, 2016, 2017) and not (the other seasons), but – 2014 and 2017 were still below average years in home wins even with a more conservative game plan, so why is that?
So, what is going on here? Of the nine seasons in question, Dallas is below average (average being 57%) in home winning percentage in five of those years (2010, 2012, 2014, 2015, and 2017), although some of the above average years had some tight home wins. Of the five below-average seasons, there are 2 1/2 Romo years and 2 1/2 non-Romo years with one of those being Prescott. Dallas averaged 55 more home passes each season for those seasons, but that includes a year (2012) with 98 more home passes and a year (2014) with only 18 more home passes.
Taking a closer look at those “bad” years:
In 2010, Dallas committed multiple turnovers in all six home losses.
In 2012, Dallas committed multiple turnovers in three of the four home losses.
In 2014, Dallas committed multiple turnovers in all four home losses.
In 2015, Dallas committed multiple turnovers in four of the seven home losses and one win was a Romo miracle to overcome -3 TO margin.
In 2017, Dallas committed multiple turnovers in all five home losses, no turnovers in the three home wins.
Looking a little deeper, over the entire nine-season period, the number of fumbles (or non-interception TOs) are virtually even for home and away games, with 45 home fumbles and 46 away fumbles. There were a lot of home fumbles in 2012 though, but overall fumbles are pretty even in good and bad years.
That means the TO differences are due entirely to interceptions and these interceptions are significantly greater at home during the five “bad” years in terms of home losses. Every single year between 2009 and 2017, the road INTs were 8 or fewer and 2015 was the only year with 8. Five out of the nine years the home INTs were 9 or greater and those are all the years that Dallas was below average in home wins. Anytime they had an INT PCT of 3.1% or greater on passes at home, they had a below average home record.
Season Home INT Away INT Difference Home Win %
2010 12 7 -5 25%
2012 12 7 -5 50%
2014 9 2 -7 50%
2015 14 8 -6 12.5%
2017 9 4 -5 37.5%
Other Years 20 19 -1 72%
By contrast from 2001 through 2008, the Cowboys home/road INT split was 67/90. Since moving to the new stadium, it is 76/47, a serious increase in home INTs. Still, in the seasons where the home and road INT differences are four or less or the home INT PCT is less than 3.1%, the Cowboys have an above average home win rate. This is not just a Romo problem, as it spans multiple QBs, and even in what was Romo’s best year of 2014. Romo actually helped the record with several miracle wins in this stretch.
Why in those particular years, did the Cowboys throw so many picks at home? 16 of the 19 multiple INT losses at home were in the five seasons in the table above. What do these 16 games have in common? For one thing, football is a team game and other parts of the team were not hitting on all cylinders in those losses.
1. The running game was weak. There were only 7 Cowboy rushing TDs in those 16 games. Two of those were in the game that Dez’s finger landed out of bounds. Also, these games averaged 4.7 first downs rushing by Dallas. The Cowboys did better than that 7 times in 2016 alone.
2. The Cowboys trailed badly. In seven of these games (44%), they had allowed at least 20 points at halftime, something that only happens 15% of the time in all Cowboy games of 2009-2017. They were behind by an average of 10.2 points after three quarters in all 16 of these games.
3. The Cowboys QB was under pressure. They were sacked 2.6 times per game.
4. The opponent passing rating was over 95 in 12 of the 16 games for 75%. FYI, during this same time period when the opponent passing rating was over 95, the Cowboys won 15 games (11%) total in nine full seasons regardless of location.
All of these things mean that things weren’t working overall, and the Cowboys had to pass and take chances in the passing game. In 14 of the 16 games (88%), the Cowboys passed 30 or times. In all home games in this period, Dallas had 30 or more pass attempts 71% of the time. (Road games were 61%). More pass attempts, especially when trailing, = more picks.
The numbers may show what happened, but why is still a mystery. All other things being equal, the only constant is the stadium. My guess, is that with the new stadium came increased pressure to perform overall, especially in a time of unprecedented scrutiny of fans and media and money. Occasionally, this pressure gets to the players and coaches when things aren’t going right overall and things snowball from there. More risky plays are called, passes are forced, receivers bobble, and then we see the Cowboys fall behind and lose. This seems to happen in streaks.
What do you think of that explanation?
Thanks Pro Football Reference
pfref.com/tiny/E3itk
It did not help that my best friend is a Niner fan. 