Deep pass is important this week

[ScipioCowboy]

I think Prescott is so good people are just looking for anything to knock him on. I have no worries at all about his deep ball.

Fuzzy isn't knocking him.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I could do that, but I'm not quite dense enough to go figuring the percentages for 64 different QB performances for no reason. It's not like we're doing some cross-era comparison that necessitates looking at the ranking rather than the raw number.

15+ yard throws as a % of total attempts
2014: 3285 of 17881 18.4%
2016: 985 of 5534 17.8%

The only reason to insist on comparing Romo's 2014 ranking to Prescott's 2016 would be if the league as a whole had a significantly different percentage of 15+ yard throws in 2016 compared to 2014.

It doesn't, so we can use the raw number.

I don't buy that there isn't a significant difference in the datasets based on a throwaway line.

The issue with your stats is it takes all of the screens that were thrown around the los and taken 15+ yards or similar outcomes and includes them in the total. I know that our RAC is up as well but that is not clear cut on the QB. The routes called and the receivers play a huge role in that as well.

I looked up his splits from ESPN and one of them is throws through the air.

He has only thrown it 20 yards or further 9 times which is near 2 less per game than what Romo accomplished. Of those throws he has completed 1. Romo completed his at a rate near 40% better in 2014 than what Dak is doing now.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Fuzzy isn't knocking him.

Well, I am 'knocking him" in the sense that I don't like how he doesn't throw it down the field with any success but overall my evaluation of him is quite good. I just think Romo is better particularly at the deep ball and the RZ throws. I don't think Dak's running ability overcomes that in the total evaluation.

Dak is not perfect. The fanbois don't like any criticism of their idol though.

 

[CowboyRoy]

With GB's rush defense being so good. I feel that this is the week Dak should be allowed to go downfield to loosen up the box meant to stop Zeke. Dez could provide greatly needed help, if he plays.

Since when under Garrett has this ever been a deep passing offense? I recall all the Romo haters claiming that Romo had a weak arm and rarely threw it deep enough. Now all of a sudden Romo is some big deep bomb passer and Dak is missing the boat?

Who is exactly is a deep threat in this offense? Maybe our 4th string guy, but you cant count on him. Dez has been out and unless he out muscles a guy its not happening.

 

[percyhoward]

I don't buy that there isn't a significant difference in the datasets based on a throwaway line.

The issue with your stats is it takes all of the screens that were thrown around the los and taken 15+ yards or similar outcomes and includes them in the total. I know that our RAC is up as well but that is not clear cut on the QB. The routes called and the receivers play a huge role in that as well.

I looked up his splits from ESPN and one of them is throws through the air.

He has only thrown it 20 yards or further 9 times which is near 2 less per game than what Romo accomplished. Of those throws he has completed 1. Romo completed his at a rate near 40% better in 2014 than what Dak is doing now.

The difference in the data sets is 4%, and no, neither screens nor any passes thrown near the LOS count in the total. This is air yards, also known as yards at catch -- the distance the pass traveled past the LOS before it was caught. RAC has no effect on the numbers.

The ESPN stat you saw has not been updated since week 4, and (obviously) doesn't count throws of 16-20 yards. So now we're talking about a different split -- one that starts 6 yards past what you called Prescott's "outer limit," and would now require the safety to drop 6 yards deeper than you had originally said just to reach the minimum distance that we're looking at. At 20+ yards, Romo had 3.3 attempts per game in 2014, and Dak has 2.3 per game, playing the last two games without Dez.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The difference in the data sets is 4%, and no, neither screens nor any passes thrown near the LOS count in the total. This is air yards, also known as yards at catch -- the distance the pass traveled past the LOS before it was caught. RAC has no effect on the numbers.

The ESPN stat you saw has not been updated since week 4, and (obviously) doesn't count throws of 16-20 yards. So now we're talking about a different split -- one that starts 6 yards past what you called Prescott's "outer limit," and would now require the safety to drop 6 yards deeper than you had originally said just to reach the minimum distance that we're looking at. At 20+ yards, Romo had 3.3 attempts per game in 2014, and Dak has 2.3 per game, playing the last two games without Dez.

Fine then we can put his outer limit at 20 yards. 1 for 9 is past that point is what it is.

He had no throws past 20 yards last week. Stat remains the same.

 

[percyhoward]

Stat remains the same.

The stat you're now talking about remains the same, but I thought your point was that his effective limit was 15 yards, and that a safety with any range could drop from LB level back to that limit. According your graphic, Prescott completed 4 of 5 passes at or beyond that limit

 

[cowboys2233]

That's what im saying.. Just get the ball and cram it down their throats.. If they are leaving guys open over the top then that would be great.

I don't want Dak to get in a shootout with Rodgers because he will lose that battle.

Romo wouldn't. Unless Dean Blandino is at the game.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The stat you're now talking about remains the same, but I thought your point was that his effective limit was 15 yards, and that a safety with any range could drop from LB level back to that limit. According your graphic, Prescott completed 4 of 5 passes at or beyond that limit

My point is he doesn't throw the deep ball very well. I used 15 yards as the example but I should have said 20; that's fair. He has one completion of over 20 yards in the air. That is something Romo does bring to the table.

To me its weighing the difference between Romo's ability to stretch the field and Dak's ability to run. I don't think the latter is sustainable.

Romo is also a better passer in the red zone.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The stat you're now talking about remains the same, but I thought your point was that his effective limit was 15 yards, and that a safety with any range could drop from LB level back to that limit. According your graphic, Prescott completed 4 of 5 passes at or beyond that limit

A good safety should be able to drop 10 yards before a receiver can run 15. They did leave 8 men boxes almost all game. I'm not going to deny that Dak is good at using his eyes to read and work S. That doesn't mean they don't have heavy boxes.

 

[JohnsKey19]

I didn't watch the NYG-GB game. I am surprised Eli and those WRs couldn't have their way vs GBs backup CBs. I'm assuming GB played a lot of zone and dealt with the run without committing any help. It appears GB again will be w/out both starting CBs.

 

[NextGenBoys]

Going deep especially if Dez doesn't play could lead to trouble. I'm not saying don't take any shots deep but we need to try and establish the run and play mistake free football if we want to have a chance of winning. The read option will loosen them up.

I would run the read option at least once every single time in the red zone.

It's damn near unstoppable in the right situation/place on the field.

 

[reddyuta]

I didn't watch the NYG-GB game. I am surprised Eli and those WRs couldn't have their way vs GBs backup CBs. I'm assuming GB played a lot of zone and dealt with the run without committing any help. It appears GB again will be w/out both starting CBs.

Eli was inaccurate and really didnt have enough time,If our Oline plays upto its potential then we have a shot in this game.

 

[irving]

Since when under Garrett has this ever been a deep passing offense? I recall all the Romo haters claiming that Romo had a weak arm and rarely threw it deep enough. Now all of a sudden Romo is some big deep bomb passer and Dak is missing the boat?

Who is exactly is a deep threat in this offense? Maybe our 4th string guy, but you cant count on him. Dez has been out and unless he out muscles a guy its not happening.

I agree %100, the people that are now trying to imply that Tony throws deep downfield are simply wrong. It was not long ago that people complained that Romo didn't throw deep, and anyone watching knows that Tony usually throws deep when the play has broken down, and he's out of the pocket. Romo has never been a 5-7 step drop back deep down field passer, nor is he known for his accuracy when throwing deep downfield. I may be wrong, but I think the deep downfield passes that he did throw, left when Owens did, because as you stated, who is our deep downfield threat?, TWill I guess, and we know that doesn't always work out.

 

[ufcrules1]

Fuzzy isn't knocking him.

I wouldn't know. I have had him on ignore for years.. lol

 

[kevm3]

There's zero reason for Dak Prescott to force the ball down the field. If you want to see some deep throws for touchdowns, it's there in his preseason footage. If teams can't stop his high percentage short to midrange throws, then keep doing it.

 

[irving]

There's zero reason for Dak Prescott to force the ball down the field. If you want to see some deep throws for touchdowns, it's there in his preseason footage. If teams can't stop his high percentage short to midrange throws, then keep doing it.

Thank you for saying it, why would Dallas change what they are doing? if teams haven't forced them to do so. This team has gotten to 4-1 the way they are playing, when they are forced to play a different style, they will either be able to do it, or they wont. Lets not pretend previous versions of the Cowboys were successful at consistently winning.

 

[PJTHEDOORS]

That's what im saying.. Just get the ball and cram it down their throats.. If they are leaving guys open over the top then that would be great.

I don't want Dak to get in a shootout with Rodgers because he will lose that battle.

I take Dak. Dak behind the line, will have time to throw. Rodgers should see some pressure, we hope. Dak younger arm. Just me though.

 

[GimmeTheBall!]

Or they could just keep doing what they've been doing which has resulted in 4-1 NFC East leading record.

Right you are govnor!

 

[Ranching]

Right you are govnor!

Against teams with a 9 and 17 record. Yeah, just keep doing what you're doing, no one will catch on.