Defining a "Bust"

[plasticman]

I am interested in a quantified definition of a bust, some statistical qualification. Without a standard definition, it is difficult to evaluate the Cowboys drafting history versus other teams. There is also a very wide range of expectations from fans, in general.

For now, I am going to go with a very basic definition as it pertains only to 1st round picks. We can modify this definition eventually, but I choose 1st round picks only because they have the most impact on the future of the franchise that drafted them. The higher they are drafted in the 1st round, the more it detriments the team if that pick failed.

By going with a basic definition, we should all be able to agree that those players fitting the definition are definitely busts. Obviously, there are those that might wish to expand the definition and I wouldn't disagree with that premise, but for now, let's keep it to a definition that produces no controversy when it comes to whether or not that player is a "bust"

1st Round Bust - Any player drafted in the 1st round that lasted 4 or less years in the NFL.

Again, this definition is not all-inclusive, I understand that. However, I also believe that there could be no disagreement that the players fitting this definition are, indeed, busts.

When I generate a list of 1st round picks that lasted 4 years or less in the NFL, I can also count how many of them were drafted by particular teams.

Now, I cannot include any player drafted in the 1st round over the past three years because they have not been given the full period of time to demonstrate whether or not they are busts....by the exact definition used.

I looked at all drafts between 1990 and 2019. All a player has to do to qualify being on the list is retire before their 5th season and be a 1st round pick.

Between 1990 and 2019, there are 122 players that fit this description.

Breakdown by position with highest drafted bust at that position in parenthesis:

QB - 22 (JeMarcus Russell, Raiders)
WR - 17 (Charles Rogers, Lions)
DT - 14 (Jonathan Sullivan, Saints)
DE - 14 ((Soloman Thomas, 49ers)
T - 12 (Jason Smith, Cardinals)
LB - 11 (Trev Alberts, Colts)
CB - 10 (Bruce Pickens, Falcons)
G - 3 (Jonathan Cooper, Cardinals)
S - 3 (Calvin Pryor, Jets)

The leading team in drafting 1st round busts is surprising, you wouldn't think that the 49ers have ten players on that list. From 2010 to 2019, that averaged a 1st round bust every four years. Cleveland is in 2nd place with eight. The Eagles are also high with six. In the 49ers case it would be fair to mention that the majority of theuir 1st round busts were lbottom first round picks, late 20's.

Here is the shocker. The team with the least 1st round busts from 1990 to 2019 is the Dallas Cowboys. They have one, Taco Charlton. Again, we are strictly defining what a bust is.

Naturally, the lower the pick is in the 1st round, the more frequent the busts. if you were to divide the 1st round into quarters,

Top quarter, picks 1 to 8 have 25 busts
2nd quarter, picks 9 to 16 have 26 busts
3rd quarter, picks 17 to 24 have 31 busts
Bottom quarter, picks 25 to 32 have 40 busts

College program with most 1st round busts: Ohio State with 7. Other programs with 5-6 busts include Florida, Florida State and Wisconsin.

Obviously, there are other ways to define a bust for 1st round picks. The expectation might be a career starter. if they were a starter less than, say 25% of all games during their career, for instance. it could be any 1st round pick that participated in 50 or less games in their career.

Some expect their 1st round picks to be Pro Bowlers. However, there is 256 1st round picks participating in the NFL this season with only about 80 players selected as Pro Bowlers which would define around 80% of all 1st round picks as busts.

So what does all this imply?

The Cowboys issues are not the result of a lack of top tier talent. It is something else that is holding them back. Something is preventing the Cowboys from benefiting from their top tier talent.

 

[ShiningStar]

Bust has become a myth. Reality is, talent is dropping as colleges no longer see themselves as step in the process to the NFL but more of "make us money and good luck in the NFL" so the reality is, are we seeing "busts" or the drop in talent because colleges use easier schemes?"

That has to be addressed first.

Than there are tons of other questions before you even get to this question

heres another one, is the combine a science? do they LOOK for the correct numbers?

 

[Coogiguy03]

When you look at Mo Claiborne/Carpenter/Mazi/Taco, there's not much you need to see

 

[ShiningStar]

When you look at Mo Claiborne/Carpenter/Mazi/Taco, there's not much you need to see

if you dont understand the sport, correct, if you do understand the sport YES you need to dive in deeper.

 

[Coogiguy03]

if you dont understand the sport, correct, if you do understand the sport YES you need to dive in deeper.

if you don't understand that players don't pan out as 1st round picks you need to dive deeper

 

[dupree89]

as a supreme court justice said a long time ago...i cant give a precise legal definition of an obscenity, but i know it when i see it.

i feel that way about a player that turns out to be a bust in pro sports.

 

[tomokawan]

I am interested in a quantified definition of a bust, some statistical qualification. Without a standard definition, it is difficult to evaluate the Cowboys drafting history versus other teams. There is also a very wide range of expectations from fans, in general.

For now, I am going to go with a very basic definition as it pertains only to 1st round picks. We can modify this definition eventually, but I choose 1st round picks only because they have the most impact on the future of the franchise that drafted them. The higher they are drafted in the 1st round, the more it detriments the team if that pick failed.

By going with a basic definition, we should all be able to agree that those players fitting the definition are definitely busts. Obviously, there are those that might wish to expand the definition and I wouldn't disagree with that premise, but for now, let's keep it to a definition that produces no controversy when it comes to whether or not that player is a "bust"

1st Round Bust - Any player drafted in the 1st round that lasted 4 or less years in the NFL.

Again, this definition is not all-inclusive, I understand that. However, I also believe that there could be no disagreement that the players fitting this definition are, indeed, busts.

When I generate a list of 1st round picks that lasted 4 years or less in the NFL, I can also count how many of them were drafted by particular teams.

Now, I cannot include any player drafted in the 1st round over the past three years because they have not been given the full period of time to demonstrate whether or not they are busts....by the exact definition used.

I looked at all drafts between 1990 and 2019. All a player has to do to qualify being on the list is retire before their 5th season and be a 1st round pick.

Between 1990 and 2019, there are 122 players that fit this description.

Breakdown by position with highest drafted bust at that position in parenthesis:

QB - 22 (JeMarcus Russell, Raiders)
WR - 17 (Charles Rogers, Lions)
DT - 14 (Jonathan Sullivan, Saints)
DE - 14 ((Soloman Thomas, 49ers)
T - 12 (Jason Smith, Cardinals)
LB - 11 (Trev Alberts, Colts)
CB - 10 (Bruce Pickens, Falcons)
G - 3 (Jonathan Cooper, Cardinals)
S - 3 (Calvin Pryor, Jets)

The leading team in drafting 1st round busts is surprising, you wouldn't think that the 49ers have ten players on that list. From 2010 to 2019, that averaged a 1st round bust every four years. Cleveland is in 2nd place with eight. The Eagles are also high with six. In the 49ers case it would be fair to mention that the majority of theuir 1st round busts were lbottom first round picks, late 20's.

Here is the shocker. The team with the least 1st round busts from 1990 to 2019 is the Dallas Cowboys. They have one, Taco Charlton. Again, we are strictly defining what a bust is.

Naturally, the lower the pick is in the 1st round, the more frequent the busts. if you were to divide the 1st round into quarters,

Top quarter, picks 1 to 8 have 25 busts
2nd quarter, picks 9 to 16 have 26 busts
3rd quarter, picks 17 to 24 have 31 busts
Bottom quarter, picks 25 to 32 have 40 busts

College program with most 1st round busts: Ohio State with 7. Other programs with 5-6 busts include Florida, Florida State and Wisconsin.

Obviously, there are other ways to define a bust for 1st round picks. The expectation might be a career starter. if they were a starter less than, say 25% of all games during their career, for instance. it could be any 1st round pick that participated in 50 or less games in their career.

Some expect their 1st round picks to be Pro Bowlers. However, there is 256 1st round picks participating in the NFL this season with only about 80 players selected as Pro Bowlers which would define around 80% of all 1st round picks as busts.

So what does all this imply?

The Cowboys issues are not the result of a lack of top tier talent. It is something else that is holding them back. Something is preventing the Cowboys from benefiting from their top tier talent.

I would count Claiborne, Carpenter, Lafluer, Mazi. Others I cant think of right now.

 

[AmericasTeam81]

Tony Manderich?

Ooops he was drafted in 1989.

 

[TwoCentPlain]

NFL Draft: Ranking the Best and Worst Teams at Picking Players​

Teams have shown over the past five years that Super Bowls are often won in April.

Will Laws | Apr 11, 2024​

Ranking 5 Years of Drafts

I believe this is ranking years 2019-2023. Cowboys got the most draft points of any team over this 5-year period.

Points System​

• Each first-team All-Pro season: 5 points
• Each second-team All-Pro season: 3 points
• Each season as primary starter (per PFR: 1 point)
• Each regular-season win: 1 point
• Each wild-card win or bye week: 2 points
• Each divisional round win: 3 points
• Each conference title: 4 points
• Each Super Bowl victory: 5 points

3) Dallas Cowboys
Last year’s ranking: 4
104 total points, 52 draft points

• Starting seasons: 18
• First-team All-Pro: 5
• Second-team All-Pro: 3
• Regular-season wins: 50
• Wild-card wins or bye: 1
• Divisional wins: 0
• Conference titles: 0
• Super Bowl wins: 0

Best picks: DE Micah Parsons, WR CeeDee Lamb, CB Daron Bland

 

[ShiningStar]

Tony Manderich?

Ooops he was drafted in 1989.

now to be fair, he wasnt as mcuh of a bust as he was more of excitement for a system that would prove its more of a failure.

No one just wanted ot accept it. He knew he was playing them, they should have known. That wasnt just obvious but it was more telling of a failed system being proven its failed BUT so much was invested in it no one wanted to admit it.

He should have never been in the NFL at all.

It was a drug/ sterioids problem and the world wanted to keep a lid on it and ride out the results. Money was to good.

 

[Tussinman]

1st Round Bust - Any player drafted in the 1st round that lasted 4 or less years in the NFL

I would say this is a decent starting point if we're referring to 4 years of actual games. Sitting on the bench or being injured wouldn't count towards the 4 years.

So like basically anyone who didn't start at least 60 NFL games. Obviously there would be other factors to determine a bust, but that would be a pretty good starting point in terms of weeding them out.

 

[ShiningStar]

I would say this is a decent starting point if we're referring to 4 years of actual games. Sitting on the bench or being injured wouldn't count towards the 4 years.

So like basically anyone who didn't start at least 60 NFL games. Obviously there would be other factors to determine a bust, but that would be a pretty good starting point in terms of weeding them out.

are you including at times, the Falcons, Bengals, Browns, Eagles, Seahawks, just didnt care, teh Jets, like there were a lot of teams that were like the Eagles before they got serious and got a real GM, most teams felt like if we won, cool, if not, no big deal. include those factors.

are you including bad coaches? include that factor. not every coach is a winner.

 

[ShiningStar]

any one factoring in when Al Davis would say "Just win baby" but at the time and after John, he bascialy had no clue. He got lucky with a QB but for the most part, that guy just didnt know how to build another good dynasty, let alone a competitive team.

 

[ShiningStar]

was it BB or was it Tom brady? are we including how all teams passed up on brady who suddenly became a QB no one saw coming?

 

[Wildcat711]

any one factoring in when Al Davis would say "Just win baby" but at the time and after John, he bascialy had no clue. He got lucky with a QB but for the most part, that guy just didnt know how to build another good dynasty, let alone a competitive team.

Jerry is Al Davis.

 

[ShiningStar]

Jerry is Al Davis.

without the drive to be a winner, but yes. similiarties, but Jerry changed the league not just the game. everyone got on board because more money could be had.

 

[plasticman]

When you look at Mo Claiborne/Carpenter/Mazi/Taco, there's not much you need to see

Again, it's a matter of perspective. Carpenter's career lasted 7 years. that's twice the length of an average NFL career.

In his 6th season he ran an interception back 34 yards for a TD. He participated in 93 NFL games, his last for Bill Belichick and the Patriots.

Claiborne's career lasted 8 seasons. In fact, he earned a Super Bowl ring with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2019, having participated in eight games and starting one. In all, Claiborne participated in 85 games, starting 74.

Of course, I would agree that their careers were disappointing, particularly Claiborne. However, there are several layers between Hall of Famer and almost zero contribution.

 

[DallasEast]

Jerry is Al Davis.

I dislike the comparison more and more the older I get. Before his mental decline, Al Davis had worked as a college head coach for a decade before coaching with the Chargers and Raiders in the old AFL. Served as commissioner of the new league. Davis was duly qualified as a general manager well-before he became one.

Conversely, Jerry Jones and Stephen Jones played some college ball. That's it. Jones can be labeled with senility, but his ineptitude in running football operations was present on day one. Jimmy Johnson's presence and work simply camouflaged his lack of GM qualifications. People did not claim he had dementia decades ago. What is the difference between then and now?

 

[ShiningStar]

I dislike the comparison more and more the older I get. Before his mental decline, Al Davis had worked as a college head coach for a decade before coaching with the Chargers and Raiders in the old AFL. Served as commissioner of the new league. Davis was duly qualified as a general manager well-before he became one.

Conversely, Jerry Jones and Stephen Jones played some college ball. That's it. Jones can be labeled with senility, but his ineptitude in running football operations was present on day one. Jimmy Johnson's presence and work simply camouflaged his lack of GM qualifications. People did not claim he had dementia decades ago. What is the difference between then and now?

Jerry changed the game. Now the Empire of the Cowboys is his goal, make money year round, dont worry about the SB, and keep the media talking. Win win.

 

[Wildcat711]

I dislike the comparison more and more the older I get. Before his mental decline, Al Davis had worked as a college head coach for a decade before coaching with the Chargers and Raiders in the old AFL. Served as commissioner of the new league. Davis was duly qualified as a general manager well-before he became one.

Conversely, Jerry Jones and Stephen Jones played some college ball. That's it. Jones can be labeled with senility, but his ineptitude in running football operations was present on day one. Jimmy Johnson's presence and work simply camouflaged his lack of GM qualifications. People did not claim he had dementia decades ago. What is the difference between then and now?

Yeah that's true..

I guess I just mean that it seemed as tho the game had passed Al by in his later years.. and seems the same with Jerry.