I am interested in a quantified definition of a bust, some statistical qualification. Without a standard definition, it is difficult to evaluate the Cowboys drafting history versus other teams. There is also a very wide range of expectations from fans, in general.
For now, I am going to go with a very basic definition as it pertains only to 1st round picks. We can modify this definition eventually, but I choose 1st round picks only because they have the most impact on the future of the franchise that drafted them. The higher they are drafted in the 1st round, the more it detriments the team if that pick failed.
By going with a basic definition, we should all be able to agree that those players fitting the definition are definitely busts. Obviously, there are those that might wish to expand the definition and I wouldn't disagree with that premise, but for now, let's keep it to a definition that produces no controversy when it comes to whether or not that player is a "bust"
1st Round Bust - Any player drafted in the 1st round that lasted 4 or less years in the NFL.
Again, this definition is not all-inclusive, I understand that. However, I also believe that there could be no disagreement that the players fitting this definition are, indeed, busts.
When I generate a list of 1st round picks that lasted 4 years or less in the NFL, I can also count how many of them were drafted by particular teams.
Now, I cannot include any player drafted in the 1st round over the past three years because they have not been given the full period of time to demonstrate whether or not they are busts....by the exact definition used.
I looked at all drafts between 1990 and 2019. All a player has to do to qualify being on the list is retire before their 5th season and be a 1st round pick.
Between 1990 and 2019, there are 122 players that fit this description.
Breakdown by position with highest drafted bust at that position in parenthesis:
QB - 22 (JeMarcus Russell, Raiders)
WR - 17 (Charles Rogers, Lions)
DT - 14 (Jonathan Sullivan, Saints)
DE - 14 ((Soloman Thomas, 49ers)
T - 12 (Jason Smith, Cardinals)
LB - 11 (Trev Alberts, Colts)
CB - 10 (Bruce Pickens, Falcons)
G - 3 (Jonathan Cooper, Cardinals)
S - 3 (Calvin Pryor, Jets)
The leading team in drafting 1st round busts is surprising, you wouldn't think that the 49ers have ten players on that list. From 2010 to 2019, that averaged a 1st round bust every four years. Cleveland is in 2nd place with eight. The Eagles are also high with six. In the 49ers case it would be fair to mention that the majority of theuir 1st round busts were lbottom first round picks, late 20's.
Here is the shocker. The team with the least 1st round busts from 1990 to 2019 is the Dallas Cowboys. They have one, Taco Charlton. Again, we are strictly defining what a bust is.
Naturally, the lower the pick is in the 1st round, the more frequent the busts. if you were to divide the 1st round into quarters,
Top quarter, picks 1 to 8 have 25 busts
2nd quarter, picks 9 to 16 have 26 busts
3rd quarter, picks 17 to 24 have 31 busts
Bottom quarter, picks 25 to 32 have 40 busts
College program with most 1st round busts: Ohio State with 7. Other programs with 5-6 busts include Florida, Florida State and Wisconsin.
Obviously, there are other ways to define a bust for 1st round picks. The expectation might be a career starter. if they were a starter less than, say 25% of all games during their career, for instance. it could be any 1st round pick that participated in 50 or less games in their career.
Some expect their 1st round picks to be Pro Bowlers. However, there is 256 1st round picks participating in the NFL this season with only about 80 players selected as Pro Bowlers which would define around 80% of all 1st round picks as busts.
So what does all this imply?
The Cowboys issues are not the result of a lack of top tier talent. It is something else that is holding them back. Something is preventing the Cowboys from benefiting from their top tier talent.
