Did Dak Regress?

[khiladi]

He ranks 15th in aggressiveness percentage at 18.1%, which is how often he throws into tight windows.

A tight window is defined as when there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time the ball arrives.

Doesn’t seem to take into account distance.. if I throw shorter passes, of course the number of ‘tight windows’ increases, because the area is smaller.. it’s also easier to throw shorter passes than intermediate and deeper routes, despite there being “tighter windows”..

 

[khiladi]

His average completed air yards is 7.0, 11th in the league.

His average intended air yards is 8.8, 14th in the league.

Air yards are basically how far he throws it to a target past the line of scrimmage.

It’s 6.9 per Pro Football Referebce, but that’s not really what I was asking. What I was asking is in regards to yards per attempt on those ‘tight windows’.

Shorter passes are generally “tighter windows”, but passes are easier to make.. it’s hard to really judge them as ‘tight windows’ or ‘aggressive’ or ‘difficult’...

That TD to Smith was a tight window based on yardage alone, but it was a basic slant pass. In this case, tight windows doesn’t necessarily mean aggressiveness in throwing either.

If one is trying to argue that Dak is aggressive based on these stats, it’s in a way misleading. Dak is conservative and our offense plays a shorter passing game with him intentionally.

Whether it is a bad or good thing is a separate issue. In the end, it’s wins that’s ultimately matter.

 

[Denim Chicken]

Shorter passes are generally “tighter windows”, but passes are easier to make.. it’s hard to really judge them as ‘tight windows’.

Longer passes generally have more separation (QBs don't typically throw to a receiver down feild that doesn't have a step or is open) so it stands to reason that tight window throws would be more short and intermediate. That hold true for all QBs.

 

[HungryLion]

It’s 6.9 per Pro Football Referebce, but that’s not really what I was asking. What I was asking is in regards to yards per attempt on those ‘tight windows’.

Shorter passes are generally “tighter windows”, but passes are easier to make.. it’s hard to really judge them as ‘tight windows’ or ‘aggressive’ or ‘difficult’...

That TD to Smith was a tight window based on yardage alone, but it was a basic slant pass. In this case, tight windows doesn’t necessarily mean aggressiveness in throwing either.

If one is trying to argue that Dak is aggressive based on these stats, it’s in a way misleading. Dak is conservative and our offense plays a shorter passing game with him intentionally.

Whether it is a bad or good thing is a separate issue. In the end, it’s wins that’s ultimately matter.

I like your reasoning in this post. Dak is a more conservative QB by nature. I don’t think he is the type of guy who can gunsling and chuck the ball 40 times a game.

It’s not necessarily a bad thing. He is a QB who can make plays and score TD’s while protecting the football. That’s a valuable QB to have.

But he isn’t going to be the guy that can throw for 4500 yards a season and air it out constantly.

Which is fine because the team can win with a QB like Dak. Dak is actually a really good QB skill set for a RUN FIRST offense.

 

[khiladi]

Longer passes generally have more separation (QBs don't typically throw to a receiver down feild that doesn't have a step or is open) so it stands to reason that tight window throws would be more short and intermediate. That hold true for all QBs.

It depends on the QB and WR.. go routes are generally well covered, the QB just places the ball where the WR can make a play and beat the guy by a step if he sees single coverage..

The main point though is ‘tight windows’ don’t necessarily make the case one thinks it does. On Seam Routes, it’s more difficult to place the ball over the head of the DB and in front of the safety, even if the receiver has two yards on the DB, than a quick pass in a tight window. That’s a way more aggressive throw than a quick slant.

Reality is this is a common criticism of Dak going back to his pre-draft scouting report. He doesn’t throw guys open and take risks and tends to go with the shorter routes.

But I think Dak throws the seam routes and middle routes well, because everything is in front of him and he’s generally decisive on them... that Witten pass has worked the three times this year I have seen it and the pass was on the money. He hits Dez in the slants consistently.

I think a general consensus on this board is this offense has to attack the middle more.

 

[School]

It’s 6.9 per Pro Football Referebce, but that’s not really what I was asking. What I was asking is in regards to yards per attempt on those ‘tight windows’.

Shorter passes are generally “tighter windows”, but passes are easier to make.. it’s hard to really judge them as ‘tight windows’ or ‘aggressive’ or ‘difficult’...

That TD to Smith was a tight window based on yardage alone, but it was a basic slant pass. In this case, tight windows doesn’t necessarily mean aggressiveness in throwing either.

If one is trying to argue that Dak is aggressive based on these stats, it’s in a way misleading. Dak is conservative and our offense plays a shorter passing game with him intentionally.

Whether it is a bad or good thing is a separate issue. In the end, it’s wins that’s ultimately matter.

That's a good question, and I'm not sure if that stat exists. Doing a little calculation myself, his average yards per completion on all of his tight window throws is 11.6.