Dink & Dunk Debunked -- Prescott and Average Depth of Completion

[percyhoward]

Prescott ranks 14th among the 30 passers with the most attempts this season in average depth of completion. So far this season, the average Dallas reception has occurred 6.34 yards past the line of scrimmage. While Dak hasn't had many attempts beyond 20 yards, he's also had fewer attempts at less than 10 yards compared to the rest of the league.

There are 13 passers whose average completion is deeper than his, but only three of them have a better passer rating. (Average depth of completion doesn't account for incomplete passes, TD, INT, or YAC.) Carson Palmer leads the league in ADoC, but has only completed 58.8% of his passes, and has 5 INT. Palmer's 81.9 rating will lose more games that it will win. Carson Wentz has been very efficient, with a passer rating of 103.5, and is winning games with a large percentage of short throws.

The number in parentheses in the player's rank in passer rating. The top 10 rated passers are in bold.

30 QB with most attempts
ayd = air yards, or yards at catch (measured from LOS to point of reception)
comp = completions

Mad Bombers
1 (22) Palmer 729 ayd 90 comp 8.10
2 (10) Wilson 653 ayd 87 comp 7.51
3 (27) Winston 876 ayd 121 comp 7.24
4 (4) Rthlsbrgr 907 yd 126 comp 7.20
5 (1) Ryan 831 ayd 116 comp 7.16

6 (28) Keenum 626 ayd 88 comp 7.11
7 (13) Luck 907 ayd 131 comp 6.92
8 (24) Newton 532 ayd 77 comp 6.90
9 (29) Osweiler 714 ayd 109 comp 6.55
10 (12) Dalton 821 ayd 126 comp 6.52
11 (2) Bradford 565 ayd 88 comp 6.42
12 (31) Fitzpatrick 707 ayd 111 comp 6.37
13 (16) Taylor 545 ayd 86 comp 6.34
14 (8) Prescott 678 ayd 107 comp 6.34
15 (23) Mariota 625 ayd 99 comp 6.31
16 (5) Rivers 849 ayd 135 comp 6.28
17 (21) Tannehill 626 ayd 100 comp 6.26
18 (30) Gabbert 544 ayd 87 comp 6.25
19 (15) Cousins 800 ayd 129 comp 6.20
20 (14) Siemian 606 ayd 99 comp 6.12
21 (11) Brees 695 ayd 116 comp 5.99
22 (3) Hoyer 581 ayd 100 comp 5.81
23 (19) Rodgers 451 ayd 78 comp 5.78
24 (7) Carr 742 ayd 129 comp 5.75
25 (20) Manning 664 ayd 119 comp 5.58

Dink & Dunk
26 (25) Flacco 737 ayd 138 comp 5.34
27 (9) Stafford 626 ayd 123 comp 5.09
28 (6) Wentz 462 ayd 91 comp 5.08
29 (18) Smith 549 ayd 109 comp 5.04
30 (26) Bortles 478 ayd 98 comp 4.88

 

[ScipioCowboy]

So it's a dink and dunk league.

 

[THEHEREAFTER]

I really like Dak Prescott. I think we hit a home run with this kid.

 

[Verdict]

I really like Dak Prescott. I think we hit a home run with this kid.

So far so good. He will improve as he goes. I'm not as concerned with his stats as I am the wins and losses, overall effeciency, and his composure in the pocket.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

He still has only thrown the ball past 20 yards 9 times. He has only completed 1. Our big plays come from receivers and runners running with the ball. He is a very accurate thrower, reads the middle of the field well, and almost never checks it down. He still doesn't throw it down the field.

Now Wilson and Roethlisberger won championships with the dink and dunk. We don't have that level of defense though. I believe that Romo would look more like what Ryan is doing in Atlanta with Dez Bryant in the fold.

 

[Shinaoi]

I wonder how much of it is a leash the play calling has on him. I like that he hasnt thrown an int, but some times it's worth the gamble. Dak will eventually get more free reign to go deep, but the dink and dunk works well in tandem with the running game.

 

[RS12]

He still has only thrown the ball past 20 yards 9 times. He has only completed 1. Our big plays come from receivers and runners running with the ball. He is a very accurate thrower, reads the middle of the field well, and almost never checks it down. He still doesn't throw it down the field.

Reminds me of the NE offense. I dont mind winning boring.

 

[JDSmith]

Prescott ranks 13th among the 30 passers with the most attempts this season in average depth of completion. So far this season, the average Dallas reception has occurred 6.34 yards past the line of scrimmage. While Dak hasn't had many attempts beyond 20 yards, he's also had fewer attempts at less than 10 yards compared to the rest of the league.

There are 12 passers whose average completion is deeper than his, but only two of them have a better passer rating. (Average depth of completion doesn't account for incomplete passes, TD, INT, or YAC.) Carson Palmer leads the league in ADoC, but has only completed 58.8% of his passes, and has 5 INT. Palmer's 81.9 rating will lose more games that it will win. Carson Wentz has been very efficient, with a passer rating of 103.5, and is winning games with a large percentage of short throws.

The number in parentheses in the player's rank in passer rating. The top 10 rated passers are in bold.

30 QB with most attempts
ayd = air yards, or yards at catch (measured from LOS to point of reception)
comp = completions

1 (22) Palmer 729 ayd 90 comp 8.10
2 (10) Wilson 653 ayd 87 comp 7.51
3 (27) Winston 876 ayd 121 comp 7.24
4 (4) Rthlsbrgr 907 yd 126 comp 7.20
5 (1) Ryan 831 ayd 116 comp 7.16
6 (28) Keenum 626 ayd 88 comp 7.11
7 (13) Luck 907 ayd 131 comp 6.92
8 (24) Newton 532 ayd 77 comp 6.90
9 (29) Osweiler 714 ayd 109 comp 6.55
10 (12) Dalton 821 ayd 126 comp 6.52
11 (31) Fitzpatrick 707 ayd 111 comp 6.37
12 (16) Taylor 545 ayd 86 comp 6.34
13 (8) Prescott 678 ayd 107 comp 6.34
14 (23) Mariota 625 ayd 99 comp 6.31
15 (5) Rivers 849 ayd 135 comp 6.28
16 (21) Tannehill 626 ayd 100 comp 6.26
17 (30) Gabbert 544 ayd 87 comp 6.25
18 (15) Cousins 800 ayd 129 comp 6.20
19 (2) Bradford 565 ayd 88 comp 6.20
20 (14) Siemian 606 ayd 99 comp 6.12
21 (11) Brees 695 ayd 116 comp 5.99
22 (3) Hoyer 581 ayd 100 comp 5.81
23 (19) Rodgers 451 ayd 78 comp 5.78
24 (7) Carr 742 ayd 129 comp 5.75
25 (20) Manning 664 ayd 119 comp 5.58
26 (25) Flacco 737 ayd 138 comp 5.34
27 (9) Stafford 626 ayd 123 comp 5.09
28 (6) Wentz 462 ayd 91 comp 5.08
29 (18) Smith 549 ayd 109 comp 5.04
30 (26) Bortles 478 ayd 98 comp 4.88

Do you by any chance know how that's changed on a per game basis? My perception is that he's throwing the ball further now. It seems that he's been hitting a lot of good passes on the intermediate stuff, which seemed basically absent most of the early games. But I haven't seen any stats to confirm or refute my belief.

 

[Verdict]

He still has only thrown the ball past 20 yards 9 times. He has only completed 1. Our big plays come from receivers and runners running with the ball. He is a very accurate thrower, reads the middle of the field well, and almost never checks it down. He still doesn't throw it down the field.

Now Wilson and Roethlisberger won championships with the dink and dunk. We don't have that level of defense though. I believe that Romo would look more like what Ryan is doing in Atlanta with Dez Bryant in the fold.

Good point.

 

[Shinaoi]

Reminds me of the NE offense. I dont mind winning boring.

True. But romo and Prescott are both very entertaining to watch in their own ways.

 

[Verdict]

I really don't know if he has to throw any long balls. He can't just throw 0 to 5 yards from the LOS and get anywhere. He is throwing the intermediate stuff now, which is why the offense is starting to open up just a little bit. I think he should only throw the deep ball if it is wide open right now, since what he is doing is enough to win at the moment.

 

[Verdict]

Do you by any chance know how that's changed on a per game basis? My perception is that he's throwing the ball further now. It seems that he's been hitting a lot of good passes on the intermediate stuff, which seemed basically absent most of the early games. But I haven't seen any stats to confirm or refute my belief.

I don't know the stats, but the eyball test tells me he seems to be getting a little bit more out of the passing game as time goes on.

 

[waldoputty]

He still has only thrown the ball past 20 yards 9 times. He has only completed 1. Our big plays come from receivers and runners running with the ball. He is a very accurate thrower, reads the middle of the field well, and almost never checks it down. He still doesn't throw it down the field.

Now Wilson and Roethlisberger won championships with the dink and dunk. We don't have that level of defense though. I believe that Romo would look more like what Ryan is doing in Atlanta with Dez Bryant in the fold.

how does the 20 attempts beyond 20 yards compare to others?

 

[RS12]

True. But romo and Prescott are both very entertaining to watch in their own ways.

Not bored with any of it. Was referring to the element that needs to be mesmerized every second to be entertained.

 

[JohnsKey19]

This is exactly why I don't buy the dink and dunk theory. Dak is living in that intermediate area of the field. And basically mastered it over the past few weeks. Sure it would be nice if they schemed up 2-3 deep shots/game, but perhaps that will come in time. Also keep in mind we're doing this without our best stud WR. Impressive.

 

[Verdict]

Not bored with any of it. Was referring to the element that needs to be mesmerized every second to be entertained.

I think stats are great to some degree. Seeing Dak have a chance to break Brady's record is awesome to me. The fact it is Brady's record is even more awesome because I hate that smug *** Brady as a player.

Having said that, if a pass goes for 20 yards, does it matter if it is all in the air or 1 yard plus 19 after the catch? I guess the stat describes what is happening on the field, but really I personally don't care unless the existence of that statistic causes the player to fail because of the opponent's scheme. Ultimately that might be the case.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Reminds me of the NE offense. I dont mind winning boring.

Brady throws it down the field near twice as often and completes it at over 3 times the rate.

New England doesn't run it like us either.

 

[Verdict]

I rea

Brady throws it down the field near twice as often and completes it at over 3 times the rate.

New England doesn't run it like us either.

l don't know how to quantify what the Patriots do, but it works and works well.

 

[percyhoward]

This is exactly why I don't buy the dink and dunk theory. Dak is living in that intermediate area of the field. And basically mastered it over the past few weeks. Sure it would be nice if they schemed up 2-3 deep shots/game, but perhaps that will come in time. Also keep in mind we're doing this without our best stud WR. Impressive.

Right. Dallas with Prescott doesn't rely on the short passing game. "Dink and dunk" offenses -- those with an emphasis on the short passing game -- are represented by the QB at the bottom of the list. (Stafford, Wentz, Smith, and Bortles.) Stafford and Wentz both have top 10 offenses, Bortles' is average, and Smith's is bottom 10.

 

[Reality]

So Wentz is the real "Dink and Dunk" quarterback ... funny how the media misses that or rather ignores it.