Dink & Dunk Debunked -- Prescott and Average Depth of Completion

[Verdict]

Right. Dallas with Prescott doesn't rely on the short passing game. "Dink and dunk" offenses -- those with an emphasis on the short passing game -- are represented by the QB at the bottom of the list. (Stafford, Wentz, Smith, and Bortles.) Stafford and Wentz both have top 10 offenses, Bortles' is average, and Smith's is bottom 10.

The intermediate pass is why we are having more success running the ball now than against the Giants.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

how does the 20 attempts beyond 20 yards compare to others?

http://www.espn.com/nfl/team/splits/_/name/dal

He has 9 attempts past 20 yards. I've only compared it to Romo and Brady who pass it downfield similarly.

Atlanta has done it twice as much and completes 40% more.
Pitt has done it over three times as much and around 40% better in completion percentage again.
Seachickens one less than twice as much and about 50% better comp%.

I'm not going through them all but he doesn't measure up to the top offenses in regards to the deep ball.

 

[percyhoward]

Do you by any chance know how that's changed on a per game basis? My perception is that he's throwing the ball further now. It seems that he's been hitting a lot of good passes on the intermediate stuff, which seemed basically absent most of the early games. But I haven't seen any stats to confirm or refute my belief.

I think it all changed beginning in game 2 at Washington, but that's just from what I remember from watching the games. I'll see if I can gather some data on it.

 

[Verdict]

http://www.espn.com/nfl/team/splits/_/name/dal

He has 9 attempts past 20 yards. I've only compared it to Romo and Brady who pass it downfield similarly.

Atlanta has done it twice as much and completes 40% more.
Pitt has done it over three times as much and around 40% better in completion percentage again.
Seachickens one less than twice as much and about 50% better comp%.

I'm not going through them all but he doesn't measure up to the top offenses in regards to the deep ball.

I think that is why he hasn't use the deep ball much yet. We will find out if he can throw the deep ball eventually, because opposing defenses will scheme him and take away all the short and intermediate routes and eventually force him to throw it down the field. I don't know if a team could do that going man to man because of Beasley's route running, and Witten is poison against zone defenses. The problem with Witten is he doesn't get very deep in the pattern at times. 4th and 1 means punt. Can't have that.

 

[waldoputty]

I think that is why he hasn't use the deep ball much yet. We will find out if he can throw the deep ball eventually, because opposing defenses will scheme him and take away all the short and intermediate routes and eventually force him to throw it down the field. I don't know if a team could do that going man to man because of Beasley's route running, and Witten is poison against zone defenses. The problem with Witten is he doesn't get very deep in the pattern at times. 4th and 1 means punt. Can't have that.

If D takes away intermediate and short routes, they probably can no longer play 8 in the box?

 

[reddyuta]

So Wentz is the real "Dink and Dunk" quarterback ... funny how the media misses that or rather ignores it.

I wonder. If they actually watch the games most of his throws are screens and dump offs.there is nothing wrong with that if you have have huge Yac guys like Sproles etc.

 

[waldoputty]

I wonder. If they actually watch the games most of his throws are screens and dump offs.there is nothing wrong with that if you have have huge Yac guys like Sproles etc.

But Wentz does seem to have quite a few completions over 20 yards?
Is that right?

 

[TwoDeep3]

Prescott ranks 13th among the 30 passers with the most attempts this season in average depth of completion. So far this season, the average Dallas reception has occurred 6.34 yards past the line of scrimmage. While Dak hasn't had many attempts beyond 20 yards, he's also had fewer attempts at less than 10 yards compared to the rest of the league.

There are 12 passers whose average completion is deeper than his, but only two of them have a better passer rating. (Average depth of completion doesn't account for incomplete passes, TD, INT, or YAC.) Carson Palmer leads the league in ADoC, but has only completed 58.8% of his passes, and has 5 INT. Palmer's 81.9 rating will lose more games that it will win. Carson Wentz has been very efficient, with a passer rating of 103.5, and is winning games with a large percentage of short throws.

The number in parentheses in the player's rank in passer rating. The top 10 rated passers are in bold.

30 QB with most attempts
ayd = air yards, or yards at catch (measured from LOS to point of reception)
comp = completions

1 (22) Palmer 729 ayd 90 comp 8.10
2 (10) Wilson 653 ayd 87 comp 7.51
3 (27) Winston 876 ayd 121 comp 7.24
4 (4) Rthlsbrgr 907 yd 126 comp 7.20
5 (1) Ryan 831 ayd 116 comp 7.16
6 (28) Keenum 626 ayd 88 comp 7.11
7 (13) Luck 907 ayd 131 comp 6.92
8 (24) Newton 532 ayd 77 comp 6.90
9 (29) Osweiler 714 ayd 109 comp 6.55
10 (12) Dalton 821 ayd 126 comp 6.52
11 (31) Fitzpatrick 707 ayd 111 comp 6.37
12 (16) Taylor 545 ayd 86 comp 6.34
13 (8) Prescott 678 ayd 107 comp 6.34
14 (23) Mariota 625 ayd 99 comp 6.31
15 (5) Rivers 849 ayd 135 comp 6.28
16 (21) Tannehill 626 ayd 100 comp 6.26
17 (30) Gabbert 544 ayd 87 comp 6.25
18 (15) Cousins 800 ayd 129 comp 6.20
19 (2) Bradford 565 ayd 88 comp 6.20
20 (14) Siemian 606 ayd 99 comp 6.12
21 (11) Brees 695 ayd 116 comp 5.99
22 (3) Hoyer 581 ayd 100 comp 5.81
23 (19) Rodgers 451 ayd 78 comp 5.78
24 (7) Carr 742 ayd 129 comp 5.75
25 (20) Manning 664 ayd 119 comp 5.58
26 (25) Flacco 737 ayd 138 comp 5.34
27 (9) Stafford 626 ayd 123 comp 5.09
28 (6) Wentz 462 ayd 91 comp 5.08
29 (18) Smith 549 ayd 109 comp 5.04
30 (26) Bortles 478 ayd 98 comp 4.88

So Mr. Howard, what was Montana's average yards per catch at completion?

Seems he was pretty good and some say he hardly ever threw a pass over 5 yards in the West Coast. Of course that is hyperbole.

 

[DFWJC]

Dak hasn't had to go deep all that much.
Why risk it when you're pounding teams with the run and low risk passing game?

There will come a time when he'll have to do this more than a few time s a game for Dallas to win.
For all we know, he may succeed at that too.

he's playing great so far!

 

[jazzcat22]

So Wentz is the real "Dink and Dunk" quarterback ... funny how the media misses that or rather ignores it.

I wanted to see what his was. seems like Wentz should be more like 2.3, I think they padded his stats...​

 

[percyhoward]

Do you by any chance know how that's changed on a per game basis? My perception is that he's throwing the ball further now. It seems that he's been hitting a lot of good passes on the intermediate stuff, which seemed basically absent most of the early games. But I haven't seen any stats to confirm or refute my belief.

In 2014, 23.0% of Romo's completions were deeper than 10 yards. In 2015, 19.1% of Brady's completions were deeper than 10 yards. Prescott exceeded 23% beginning in his second game, and continued the next week. He had a hiccup in the first game without Dez, but then returned to form against Cincy.

11+ yard depth of completion
as a percentage of total completions
vs NYG 20.0%
at WAS 27.3%
vs CHI 42.1%
at SF 8.7%
vs CIN 33.3%

Target distances, attempts, completions
game 1 vs NYG
≤10 yards 20 of 31
11-20 yards 5 of 9
>20 yards 0 of 5

game 2 at WAS
≤10 yards 16 of 22
11-20 yards 6 of 8
>20 yards 0 of 0

game 3 vs CHI
≤10 yards 11 of 13
11-20 yards 7 of 9
>20 yards 1 of 2

game 4 at SF
≤10 yards 21 of 27
11-20 yards 2 of 5
>20 yards 0 of 0

game 5 vs CIN
≤10 yards 12 of 17
11-20 yards 6 of 7
>20 yards 0 of 0

 

[fishspill]

Our pass catchers don't exactly stretch the field. I'd love to get a quality vet with speed in here to see what the offense could do.

 

[percyhoward]

So Mr. Howard, what was Montana's average yards per catch at completion?

I don't know Montana's air yards, so I can't tell you. But obviously there have been a lot of successful offenses that emphasized short passes.

 

[Cowboys22]

He still has only thrown the ball past 20 yards 9 times. He has only completed 1. Our big plays come from receivers and runners running with the ball. He is a very accurate thrower, reads the middle of the field well, and almost never checks it down. He still doesn't throw it down the field.

Now Wilson and Roethlisberger won championships with the dink and dunk. We don't have that level of defense though. I believe that Romo would look more like what Ryan is doing in Atlanta with Dez Bryant in the fold.

I don't get why people do not understand that this is by design. This is the teams MO on offense. Sustain long drives by running, throwing high percentage passes, moving the chains, eating up the clock, not turning the ball over, and scoring red zone TDs. This limits the opponents possessions and allows the defense to stay fresh and not have to defend short fields. As soon as you start forcing the ball downfield, the turnovers will start, the 3 & outs will start, and the defense will decline because of it. It may lead to a few more points but not necessarily more wins.

 

[Cowboy06]

I'd be curious if anyone knows how Dak compares historically overall with other quarterbacks when they were a rookie. I know he's very careful with the ball, but beyond that, I would like to know how he matches up.

 

[waldoputty]

In 2014, 23.0% of Romo's completions were deeper than 10 yards. In 2015, 19.1% of Brady's completions were deeper than 10 yards. Prescott exceeded 23% beginning in his second game, and continued the next week. He had a hiccup in the first game without Dez, but then returned to form against Cincy.

11+ yard depth of completion
as a percentage of total completions
vs NYG 20.0%
at WAS 27.3%
vs CHI 42.1%
at SF 8.7%
vs CIN 33.3%

Target distances, attempts, completions
game 1 vs NYG
≤10 yards 20 of 31
11-20 yards 5 of 9
>20 yards 0 of 5

game 2 at WAS
≤10 yards 16 of 22
11-20 yards 6 of 8
>20 yards 0 of 0

game 3 vs CHI
≤10 yards 11 of 13
11-20 yards 7 of 9
>20 yards 1 of 2

game 4 at SF
≤10 yards 21 of 27
11-20 yards 2 of 5
>20 yards 0 of 0

game 5 vs CIN
≤10 yards 12 of 17
11-20 yards 6 of 7
>20 yards 0 of 0

Great, so the passing game is trending to intermediate routes from short routes.
May explain why rushing attack improved.
Wonder if defense stas bear this out in terms of # plays with 8 in box etc.

 

[percyhoward]

I'd be curious if anyone knows how Dak compares historically overall with other quarterbacks when they were a rookie. I know he's very careful with the ball, but beyond that, I would like to know how he matches up.

He's the first rookie with over a 100 rating in 4 of his first 5 games.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I don't get why people do not understand that this is by design. This is the teams MO on offense. Sustain long drives by running, throwing high percentage passes, moving the chains, eating up the clock, not turning the ball over, and scoring red zone TDs. This limits the opponents possessions and allows the defense to stay fresh and not have to defend short fields. As soon as you start forcing the ball downfield, the turnovers will start, the 3 & outs will start, and the defense will decline because of it. It may lead to a few more points but not necessarily more wins.

They have specifically stated they have not changed the offense for Dak. They run 9 and post routes. Romo threw the ball deep twice as often. We scored more two years ago then we are now. This notion that the deep ball is a detriment is bankrupt.

 

[Cowboy06]

He's the first rookie with over a 100 rating in 4 of his first 5 games.

thanks for the quick reply!

 

[robjay04]

The team is built to run the ball. We aren't built for the big play. People are acting like Romo is some gun slinger, his deep ball has declined in recent years and Romo dinks and dunks as well.