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10:44 AM Fri, Jan 09, 2009 | Permalink | Yahoo! Buzz
Tim MacMahon http://www.***BANNED-URL***/blogs/images/email-icon.jpg E-mail http://www.***BANNED-URL***/blogs/images/email-icon.jpg News tips
Bill Barnwell, a contributing editor at footballoutsiders.com and one of the minds behind the must-read Pro Football Prospectus, will answer five Cowboys questions each week of the season using the FO data and methodologies. Here's the season-ending edition:
1) Give Jerry Jones some advice: Who should be the next head coach of the Cowboys? Why? When?
If we're picking anyone alive, I'd say Bill Cowher. Since Cowher doesn't want the job, of the candidates available, I'd pick Marty Schottenheimer. Schottenheimer's got the best resume of any candidate out there, he's intelligent enough to know where to defer and where to stamp his opinion, and he's dealt with enough loudmouths to handle the egos in the locker room. I don't think you can hire a first-time coach in Dallas at the moment, and it's pretty clear that the team doesn't respect Wade Phillips. Then again, you could've said the same thing about Tom Coughlin in 2006, and that changed.
I'd give Phillips the opportunity to move to defensive coordinator, expecting him to tell me to buzz off. When he did, I'd fire him and just squeeze a few million out of the stadium budget like when I used to use my student loans for beer money. I'd tell Schottenheimer that this was the best chance he had at winning a Super Bowl and that he's stuck with Garrett as the offensive coordinator. I'd tell Garrett he can leave if he wants. He won't. If he did, the Cowboys could very quickly hire Brian Schottenheimer away from the Jets.
2) You weren't surprised that the Cowboys missed the playoffs, something you forecasted from the start of the season. So what did surprise you most about the Cowboys' season?
What surprised me most? Honestly, how closely their real season mirrored the actual narrative we presented for projecting them to win 8.1 games in our book this year: In short, that they'd lose a major player and it would dramatically affect the team, and that they'd have more nagging injuries that kept players out for a few weeks at a time (as opposed to last year, when they had the season-long injuries to Jason Ferguson and Terry Glenn, but virtually nothing of the medium-length variety besides the early-season Terence Newman injury). I expected the Eagles to give them a close game in Week 17, and we've been saying the Eagles were a great team for the entire year, but I certainly didn't expect the shellacking that went down.
I want to look on the bright side, though. I'll say that the two most pleasant surprises were the play of Felix Jones (although I'm still cautious about considering his lack of involvement in the offense when he was healthy) and Jay Ratliff (who was simply awesome). Ratliff was so good that it makes you wonder how many talented players like Ratliff and Tony Romo are sitting at the bottom of NFL rosters, waiting for a chance they might never get to show off their abilities.
3) The Cowboys ranked second in the league with 33 turnovers committed. How directly correlated are turnovers to wins and losses?
It's got a correlation somewhere around .38, which for football is a pretty decent figure. What's more important in looking towards the future is the content of those turnovers, though.
Take the Ravens from 2006 through 2008. Their turnover differential went all the way from the best in football in 2006 (+17) to the worst in the league a year later (-17). In 2008, they were +13, third in the NFL.
The biggest change over these three years was on offense, specifically in 2007. It also didn't come in the passing game -- the Ravens' interception numbers have stayed between 11 and 14 each of the three years. In 2006, the Ravens recovered only five of the 25 fumbles their offense put on the grass. That's an astoundingly low figure, because as our research has shown, fumble recovery tends to be a relatively random act. (Remember Week 16 if you think that's impossible.) No team would ever be expected to recover such a tiny percentage of their own fumbles in a given season, and we expected the Ravens to do much better this year in picking up their own mistakes, which they have, recovering 14 of their 27 fumbles. In other words, just about 50 percent.
This year, by my count, Dallas recovered 17 of the 31 offensive fumbles they dropped this year. That's slightly higher than 50 percent. Because of that, we wouldn't expect the Cowboys to see a bounceback in their turnovers committed like we did for the Ravens a year ago.
4) The Cowboys aren't expected to make a big splash in free agency. Who are some players who could be bargains that might make sense for the Cowboys?
I think the first thing the Cowboys have to do is shore up the quarterback spot behind Tony Romo. I don't think that Romo's an injury-prone player, but he certainly plays a style that lends itself to being hurt. I think that everyone realized pretty quickly that Brad Johnson wasn't the answer behind Romo, but what made the problem worse was that Johnson was pretty much the antithesis of Romo stylistically; Johnson was immobile, while Romo's game -- and the Cowboys offense -- is built around mobility and scrambling.
With that in mind, I think Jeff Garcia feels like an obvious fit. He's a veteran you can get on a one-year deal for relatively cheap, he's likely to leave Tampa Bay, and he's a great match for Romo's style. The possibility exists that he could resign with Tampa or go somewhere to be a starter, but there's simply not many starting jobs out there. Outside of Garcia, someone like a Charlie Batch or even a Charlie Frye might be a good fit.
The rest of the offense is pretty sound. I don't know how much confidence Cory Procter has inspired at left guard, so although Kyle Kosier's returning, picking through the scraps of a deep guard class in free agency would seem like a good idea. A utility guard like Floyd Womack, Russ Hochstein, or Jason Whittle would offer some depth up and down the line.
The most pressing spot on defense is at middle linebacker, where Zach Thomas is likely to leave. Cowboys fans with dreams of Ray Lewis should probably wake up -- he's not leaving Baltimore. Among the cheaper options in the market are players like Eric Barton of the Jets and Andra Davis of the Browns (the latter of whom I believe is a free agent). Both have experience playing in the middle of a 3-4. Of course, the Cowboys could also choose to give that spot to Kevin Burnett or Bobby Carpenter. If Greg Ellis leaves, they'll also need to add some depth at outside linebacker, but there's little of that available in free agency. Clark Haggans is the only real 3-4 linebacker out there who fits into the Cowboys' budget at the moment.
The other spot open is at defensive end, where Chris Canty will be an unrestricted free agent barring a new deal. A year ago, replacing Canty with Jason Hatcher would've seemed like an obvious move; after a disappointing season, though, it seems logical to let Hatcher roam around again and try and acquire an end in free agency. Unfortunately, the pickings are slim -- overpaying for players like Bertrand Berry or Kevin Carter seems ill-advised. The Cowboys could consider Dwan Edwards, a Ravens defensive lineman who missed the entire season due to injury. Edwards is 315 pounds, though, meaning that the Cowboys would probably need to either have him drop weight or move Ratliff back to defensive end.
Even if Canty stays, the Cowboys will need to add depth behind Ratliff with the almost definite departure of Tank Johnson. Again, the pickings are slim, and with the Cowboys' success in locating average linemen in the draft, I'd expect them to use that route to supplement their tackles.
If the Cowboys do cut Roy Williams the safety, they could move Ken Hamlin into his spot and Anthony Henry to FS, or let Keith Davis start, but there are other options out there. Giants strong safety James Butler is likely to depart and make way for 2008 first-round pick Kenny Phillips, making him the most appealing unrestricted free agent at SS on the market. They could also go for Jaguars safety Gerald Sensabaugh, who's shown occasional signs of brilliance in Jacksonville.
5) What should the Cowboys target with their second-round pick? What should the Cowboys try to do in the draft as a whole?
OK. Although the Roy Williams trade has pretty disastrous consequences on this year's draft, remember that the Cowboys still have a third-round pick this year because of last year's trade with the Browns.
I wouldn't try and move up and acquire somebody because there's not a real obvious hole on the roster -- the Cowboys need depth more than anything else. With the #51 pick, I've seen some mock drafts pushing a cornerback the Cowboys way, but that's unlikely -- they're obviously tied into having Terence Newman on one side of the field, they spent a first-rounder on Mike Jenkins last year, and Orlando Scandrick's looked great in part-time play. If anything, cornerback is a spot where they could spend a late-round pick trying to find the next Scandrick.
I'd consider bringing in an outside linebacker like Clint Sintim of Virginia, who could also play end and spell either Spencer or Canty/Canty's replacement. Cincinnati end Connor Barwin, who had 10 sacks this year in his first year as a starter, could also be someone who fits the Cowboys scheme.
If they choose to bring in depth at nose tackle, Boston College's Ron Brace could work. Either way, expect the Cowboys to use these mid-round picks on players from big schools -- the Cowboys love to spend these sort of picks on guys from big colleges.
Tim MacMahon http://www.***BANNED-URL***/blogs/images/email-icon.jpg E-mail http://www.***BANNED-URL***/blogs/images/email-icon.jpg News tips
Bill Barnwell, a contributing editor at footballoutsiders.com and one of the minds behind the must-read Pro Football Prospectus, will answer five Cowboys questions each week of the season using the FO data and methodologies. Here's the season-ending edition:
1) Give Jerry Jones some advice: Who should be the next head coach of the Cowboys? Why? When?
If we're picking anyone alive, I'd say Bill Cowher. Since Cowher doesn't want the job, of the candidates available, I'd pick Marty Schottenheimer. Schottenheimer's got the best resume of any candidate out there, he's intelligent enough to know where to defer and where to stamp his opinion, and he's dealt with enough loudmouths to handle the egos in the locker room. I don't think you can hire a first-time coach in Dallas at the moment, and it's pretty clear that the team doesn't respect Wade Phillips. Then again, you could've said the same thing about Tom Coughlin in 2006, and that changed.
I'd give Phillips the opportunity to move to defensive coordinator, expecting him to tell me to buzz off. When he did, I'd fire him and just squeeze a few million out of the stadium budget like when I used to use my student loans for beer money. I'd tell Schottenheimer that this was the best chance he had at winning a Super Bowl and that he's stuck with Garrett as the offensive coordinator. I'd tell Garrett he can leave if he wants. He won't. If he did, the Cowboys could very quickly hire Brian Schottenheimer away from the Jets.
2) You weren't surprised that the Cowboys missed the playoffs, something you forecasted from the start of the season. So what did surprise you most about the Cowboys' season?
What surprised me most? Honestly, how closely their real season mirrored the actual narrative we presented for projecting them to win 8.1 games in our book this year: In short, that they'd lose a major player and it would dramatically affect the team, and that they'd have more nagging injuries that kept players out for a few weeks at a time (as opposed to last year, when they had the season-long injuries to Jason Ferguson and Terry Glenn, but virtually nothing of the medium-length variety besides the early-season Terence Newman injury). I expected the Eagles to give them a close game in Week 17, and we've been saying the Eagles were a great team for the entire year, but I certainly didn't expect the shellacking that went down.
I want to look on the bright side, though. I'll say that the two most pleasant surprises were the play of Felix Jones (although I'm still cautious about considering his lack of involvement in the offense when he was healthy) and Jay Ratliff (who was simply awesome). Ratliff was so good that it makes you wonder how many talented players like Ratliff and Tony Romo are sitting at the bottom of NFL rosters, waiting for a chance they might never get to show off their abilities.
3) The Cowboys ranked second in the league with 33 turnovers committed. How directly correlated are turnovers to wins and losses?
It's got a correlation somewhere around .38, which for football is a pretty decent figure. What's more important in looking towards the future is the content of those turnovers, though.
Take the Ravens from 2006 through 2008. Their turnover differential went all the way from the best in football in 2006 (+17) to the worst in the league a year later (-17). In 2008, they were +13, third in the NFL.
The biggest change over these three years was on offense, specifically in 2007. It also didn't come in the passing game -- the Ravens' interception numbers have stayed between 11 and 14 each of the three years. In 2006, the Ravens recovered only five of the 25 fumbles their offense put on the grass. That's an astoundingly low figure, because as our research has shown, fumble recovery tends to be a relatively random act. (Remember Week 16 if you think that's impossible.) No team would ever be expected to recover such a tiny percentage of their own fumbles in a given season, and we expected the Ravens to do much better this year in picking up their own mistakes, which they have, recovering 14 of their 27 fumbles. In other words, just about 50 percent.
This year, by my count, Dallas recovered 17 of the 31 offensive fumbles they dropped this year. That's slightly higher than 50 percent. Because of that, we wouldn't expect the Cowboys to see a bounceback in their turnovers committed like we did for the Ravens a year ago.
4) The Cowboys aren't expected to make a big splash in free agency. Who are some players who could be bargains that might make sense for the Cowboys?
I think the first thing the Cowboys have to do is shore up the quarterback spot behind Tony Romo. I don't think that Romo's an injury-prone player, but he certainly plays a style that lends itself to being hurt. I think that everyone realized pretty quickly that Brad Johnson wasn't the answer behind Romo, but what made the problem worse was that Johnson was pretty much the antithesis of Romo stylistically; Johnson was immobile, while Romo's game -- and the Cowboys offense -- is built around mobility and scrambling.
With that in mind, I think Jeff Garcia feels like an obvious fit. He's a veteran you can get on a one-year deal for relatively cheap, he's likely to leave Tampa Bay, and he's a great match for Romo's style. The possibility exists that he could resign with Tampa or go somewhere to be a starter, but there's simply not many starting jobs out there. Outside of Garcia, someone like a Charlie Batch or even a Charlie Frye might be a good fit.
The rest of the offense is pretty sound. I don't know how much confidence Cory Procter has inspired at left guard, so although Kyle Kosier's returning, picking through the scraps of a deep guard class in free agency would seem like a good idea. A utility guard like Floyd Womack, Russ Hochstein, or Jason Whittle would offer some depth up and down the line.
The most pressing spot on defense is at middle linebacker, where Zach Thomas is likely to leave. Cowboys fans with dreams of Ray Lewis should probably wake up -- he's not leaving Baltimore. Among the cheaper options in the market are players like Eric Barton of the Jets and Andra Davis of the Browns (the latter of whom I believe is a free agent). Both have experience playing in the middle of a 3-4. Of course, the Cowboys could also choose to give that spot to Kevin Burnett or Bobby Carpenter. If Greg Ellis leaves, they'll also need to add some depth at outside linebacker, but there's little of that available in free agency. Clark Haggans is the only real 3-4 linebacker out there who fits into the Cowboys' budget at the moment.
The other spot open is at defensive end, where Chris Canty will be an unrestricted free agent barring a new deal. A year ago, replacing Canty with Jason Hatcher would've seemed like an obvious move; after a disappointing season, though, it seems logical to let Hatcher roam around again and try and acquire an end in free agency. Unfortunately, the pickings are slim -- overpaying for players like Bertrand Berry or Kevin Carter seems ill-advised. The Cowboys could consider Dwan Edwards, a Ravens defensive lineman who missed the entire season due to injury. Edwards is 315 pounds, though, meaning that the Cowboys would probably need to either have him drop weight or move Ratliff back to defensive end.
Even if Canty stays, the Cowboys will need to add depth behind Ratliff with the almost definite departure of Tank Johnson. Again, the pickings are slim, and with the Cowboys' success in locating average linemen in the draft, I'd expect them to use that route to supplement their tackles.
If the Cowboys do cut Roy Williams the safety, they could move Ken Hamlin into his spot and Anthony Henry to FS, or let Keith Davis start, but there are other options out there. Giants strong safety James Butler is likely to depart and make way for 2008 first-round pick Kenny Phillips, making him the most appealing unrestricted free agent at SS on the market. They could also go for Jaguars safety Gerald Sensabaugh, who's shown occasional signs of brilliance in Jacksonville.
5) What should the Cowboys target with their second-round pick? What should the Cowboys try to do in the draft as a whole?
OK. Although the Roy Williams trade has pretty disastrous consequences on this year's draft, remember that the Cowboys still have a third-round pick this year because of last year's trade with the Browns.
I wouldn't try and move up and acquire somebody because there's not a real obvious hole on the roster -- the Cowboys need depth more than anything else. With the #51 pick, I've seen some mock drafts pushing a cornerback the Cowboys way, but that's unlikely -- they're obviously tied into having Terence Newman on one side of the field, they spent a first-rounder on Mike Jenkins last year, and Orlando Scandrick's looked great in part-time play. If anything, cornerback is a spot where they could spend a late-round pick trying to find the next Scandrick.
I'd consider bringing in an outside linebacker like Clint Sintim of Virginia, who could also play end and spell either Spencer or Canty/Canty's replacement. Cincinnati end Connor Barwin, who had 10 sacks this year in his first year as a starter, could also be someone who fits the Cowboys scheme.
If they choose to bring in depth at nose tackle, Boston College's Ron Brace could work. Either way, expect the Cowboys to use these mid-round picks on players from big schools -- the Cowboys love to spend these sort of picks on guys from big colleges.
