DMN Blog: Five Downs With Football Outsiders (Roy, Pac, Felix, Romo)

[Audiman]

Do you want college football or are you judging it from the eyes of a NFL fan.

I'm sorry? did you mean "watch"? if so, then yes I do.

 

[DaBoys4Life]

I'm sorry? did you mean "watch"? if so, then yes I do.

Yea I meant watch my fault. It doesn't seem as if you do.

 

[Audiman]

Yea I meant watch my fault. It doesn't seem as if you do.

well hell, if you can judge what I watch and don't watch by my posts, how's my love life going? how tall am I and how much do I weigh?

 

[DaBoys4Life]

well hell, if you can judge what I watch and don't watch by my posts, how's my love life going? how tall am I and how much do I weigh?

It's easy to tell a fan of college football and a fan of the NFL. How they view players and such. The way you try to put down CJ is silly. Saying he is a #2 RB which in college doesn't mean much if you considering some of the duos that have been seen to name a few.

Ronnie Brown Cadillac Williams
Reggie Bush Lendale White
Darren McFadden Felix Jones
Marion Barber Laurence Maroney
Steve Slaton Noel Devine

 

[Temo]

I haven't seen their correlations, sample, or the accuracy of the raw data (which some seem to be questioning). But you said you can't attack a correlation based on the fact that there is a correlation, and I did. Statistically speaking, a perfect correlation of 1.0 is not valid if the sample size is insufficient. And if it's not valid, you can't draw any conclusions from it. But with the way this guy writes, often injecting subjective, opinionated thought into his argument which supposedly is based on his objective (albeit, horrifically simplistic) Speed Score makes me think this guy is nothing more than a biased weasel. :laugh2:

Not to mention, ScripioCowboy (sp?) pointed out his wrongful assumption that the likelihood of a certain outcome changes with repetition. Face it, the only thing his Speed Score points out is that he is not capable of putting together a calculation with anything other than the most basic and minimum number of variables. Capitalizing it doesn't make it more special, you know. :LOL

Well, his sample size included quite a few years of data, from his article in PFP. And speed score is only simple enough to do its job: to modify 40 times into something more useful. A .44 correlation is, in the end, not even near perfect... but it IS better than raw 40 yard scores.

As for his statements on injuries, I corrected him on this on FO (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2008/08/21/extra-points/6468/#comments) if you care to see it, and he took back the wording the his response, recognizing that he had not stated his point clearly.

As your statements on statistical correlations; a correlation is a number that describes the degree of relationship between two variables. In this case, speed score and NFL production. As speed score increases, NFL production increases, although only 44% of the variability is "explained" (again, here, my English vocab does not adequately describe the strength of the math, which is somewhat lower than the english would imply).

You cannot attack this correlation based on the fact that there is a correlation, sample size or no. You can deem a correlation to be worthless because the sample size sucks, but the fact that there is a mathematical correlation between the two variables is indisputable within the sample given. Is this a technicality, and a pretty semantic argument? Yea, it is. But I still stand by the accuracy of my previous statement.

 

[Temo]

I didn't have the charts handy at the time I replied. But here's a short list of things I've found already (I haven't compared everything yet, such as formations, rushers and blockers) --

-- Too many passes are listed as "charter did not list" the targeted defender. Given that there are options for when it's difficult to determine (including "hole in zone," "crowd" and even "unknown"), simply leaving out the information is inexcusable. Two of Terrell Owens' touchdown catches are listed as "charter did not list." Huh? Nobody even bothered to fill in the blank on a touchdown catch? And if you watch those two plays (1:21 of the second quarter against Washington and 9:58 of the second quarter against Green Bay), they're not difficult to figure out. He beat Shawn Springs 1-on-1 on a simple stop fade against Washington, and he beat Nick Collins for a 10-yarder against Green Bay (at worst, it should have been "hole in zone" as defender1 and Collins as defender2, given how badly Collins blew the coverage).

I have exactly what you have on my charts for those plays. Unfortunately, I volunteered for Jets and cowboys games for last season (I live in NYC and I'm a bit of a Jets fan as well). Guess whose game I was assigned that week? I did do my own charting for the cowboys game though and I had what you had (though I had just Nick Collins on the second... I never chart Hole in Zone AND a defender). Bad job by FO if their charting information is inadequate there though.

-- I disagree with a lot of the "targeted" defenders. Too many plays just list the guy who made the tackle or the guy who ended up being closest when the pass was caught instead of the guy responsible for the coverage. I know there's a certain degree of error on those type of things, but it's much bigger than I previously thought. Too many plays seem that the charter didn't bother to examine the coverage, but just marked down who seemed to be in the area at first glance.

Unfortunately, a lot of this is due to the TV tape. I know I had a hell of a time trying to figure out if a play was "Hole in zone" or just blown Man coverage when I only see a few screens of the play before the TV man decides he'd rather show me the cute girl in the front row with a Romo jersey on. A lot of the charters I know would KILL for coach's film on a weekly basis.

-- The figures in the charting data don't always match the figures in the book, and the figures in the book don't always match the other figures in the book. For example, Jacques Reeves is listed in the book as being targeted 107 times and allowing 7.7 yards per pass (the "unadjusted" figure given). In the back of the book, it says he allowed 818 yards. But 818/107 = 7.64, which rounds off to 7.6, not 7.7. And in the charting data, he's listed as "defender1" 112 times and "defender2" eight times, which would mean he was targeted 120 times, not 107. And if you add up the yardage on those plays, he allowed 884 yards in completions, plus a 14-yard pass interference penalty. Why are ALL of the numbers different? It's the same with other players, too. They list Jason David as allowing 1,051 yards, but also list him with 82 targets and 12.4 yards per attempt, which doesn't come out close to 1,051. Unless they're making other "adjustments" that they don't reveal, something isn't right.

The yardage difference is within 66 yards, and the targets within 5-13 (depending on which number you're looking at). Jason David's numbers are within 33 yards. This looks like they used adjusted numbers in some places and unadjusted elsewhere.

 

[Audiman]

It's easy to tell a fan of college football and a fan of the NFL. How they view players and such. The way you try to put down CJ is silly. Saying he is a #2 RB which in college doesn't mean much if you considering some of the duos that have been seen to name a few.

Ronnie Brown Cadillac Williams
Reggie Bush Lendale White
Darren McFadden Felix Jones
Marion Barber Laurence Maroney
Steve Slaton Noel Devine

CJ was a #1 RB for East Carolina, Felix Jones was the #2 RB for Arkansas behinda Darren McFadden(otherwise known as the best RB in the draft). I'll throw these stats out for you(keep in mind I'm only getting into rushing stats because that's what we're talking about):

Chris Johnson(2004-2007):
624 attempts, 2982 yds, 4.5 yds average

Felix Jones(2005-2007):
386 attemps, 2956 yds, 7.5 yds average

interesting, Felix backed up McFadden, missed a year, and still put up better numbers than Johnson. did I mention Felix had back to back 1,000+ yd seasons? Chris Johnson didn't even come close to that. oddly enough, Chris Johnson has similar college statistics to Julius Jones, and we all know how that turned out...

[sarcasm]but yeah, you're right. Chris Johnson is far more superior than Felix Jones. Felix should definately take some running lessons from Chris...[/sarcasm]

 

[DaBoys4Life]

CJ was a #1 RB for East Carolina, Felix Jones was the #2 RB for Arkansas behinda Darren McFadden(otherwise known as the best RB in the draft). I'll throw these stats out for you(keep in mind I'm only getting into rushing stats because that's what we're talking about):

Chris Johnson(2004-2007):
624 attempts, 2982 yds, 4.5 yds average

Felix Jones(2005-2007):
386 attemps, 2956 yds, 7.5 yds average

interesting, Felix backed up McFadden, missed a year, and still put up better numbers than Johnson. did I mention Felix had back to back 1,000+ yd seasons? Chris Johnson didn't even come close to that. oddly enough, Chris Johnson has similar college statistics to Julius Jones, and we all know how that turned out...

[sarcasm]but yeah, you're right. Chris Johnson is far more superior than Felix Jones. Felix should definately take some running lessons from Chris...[/sarcasm]

Chris Johnson missed most of his JR season with a neck injury and he was sharing carries also. what year did Felix sit out ? Why did you leave out TD's and receiving stats?

 

[dbair1967]

Chris Johnson missed most of his JR season with a neck injury and he was sharing carries also.

seriously dude...its way past time to get over this

David

 

[DaBoys4Life]

seriously dude...its way past time to get over this

David

I'm over it, its not my fault this guy keeps bring this stuff up.

 

[Audiman]

Chris Johnson missed most of his JR season with a neck injury and he was sharing carries also. what year did Felix sit out ? Why did you leave out TD's and receiving stats?

are you seriously this stupid?

Felix shared carries with Darren McFadden and missed the ENTIRE FRESHMEN YEAR. I left out TDs because McFadden(#1 Arkansas RB) got most of the redzone carries. I left out receiving stats because you said Felix Jones couldn't run as well as Chris Johnson. also, Arkansas is a run first offense.

anymore BS you want to throw at me?

 

[DaBoys4Life]

are you seriously this stupid?

Felix shared carries with Darren McFadden and missed the ENTIRE FRESHMEN YEAR. I left out TDs because McFadden(#1 Arkansas RB) got most of the redzone carries. I left out receiving stats because you said Felix Jones couldn't run as well as Chris Johnson. also, Arkansas is a run first offense.

anymore BS you want to throw at me?

his freshman year was the 626 yards he put up......

 

[DaBoys4Life]

are you seriously this stupid?

Felix shared carries with Darren McFadden and missed the ENTIRE FRESHMEN YEAR. I left out TDs because McFadden(#1 Arkansas RB) got most of the redzone carries. I left out receiving stats because you said Felix Jones couldn't run as well as Chris Johnson. also, Arkansas is a run first offense.

anymore BS you want to throw at me?

since you seem to twist the things I say around answer these 4 question.

Who had more rushing yards?
Who had more receiving yards?
Who had more TD's ?
How is CJ not the more complete back ?

 

[Audiman]

since you seem to twist the things I say around answer these 4 question.

Who had more rushing yards?
Who had more receiving yards?
Who had more TD's ?
How is CJ not the more complete back ?

Jones missed his freshmen year, I believe. regardless, Jones still played for less amount of time, rushed for almost the same career yards, and had a lot less attempts. also, like I said in the other thread, Arkansas is a RUN FIRST offense. they're two completely different offenses.

 

[AdamJT13]

Jones missed his freshmen year, I believe. regardless, Jones still played for less amount of time, rushed for almost the same career yards, and had a lot less attempts. also, like I said in the other thread, Arkansas is a RUN FIRST offense. they're two completely different offenses.

Felix graduated from high school in the spring of 2005. In the fall of 2005, he was a first-team All-America kickoff returner for Arkansas as a freshman. So no, he didn't miss his freshman season. He did, however, skip his senior season.

Chris Johnson stayed for his senior season and got almost half of his career yards and more than half of his career touchdowns that season. In his first three seasons, Johnson rushed 388 times for 1,559 yards (4.02 YPC). In Felix's first (and only) three seasons, he rushed 386 times for 2,956 yards (7.66 YPC).

 

[AdamJT13]

The yardage difference is within 66 yards, and the targets within 5-13 (depending on which number you're looking at). Jason David's numbers are within 33 yards.

That's not very precise, if you ask me. It's either sloppy work or they're not disclosing all of the times they "adjust" the numbers for some reason. (And using adjusted success percentage without disclosing the raw success percentage is inexcusable.)

This looks like they used adjusted numbers in some places and unadjusted elsewhere.

Their AYPA numbers are off by even more.