News: DMN: Will McClay on his confidence in Cowboys' running back-by-committee approach

[Dave_in-NC]

Am I the only one who doesn't like running back by committee?

No right there with you. But I don't think it will be that extreme.

 

[Dave_in-NC]

I know this has been rehashed, but nobody wins because of their running games anymore.

You miss last season? That's exactly how the Cowboys won.

 

[BlindFaith]

Conversion percentage on
3rd and...
short (1-2) 70.0% 5th
medium (3-6) 50.7% 8th
long (7-9) 40.5% 7th
very long (10+) 29.3% 6th

Can you provide the number of attempts for each of the above and how they compare to the other teams mentioned?

 

[Proximo]

No right there with you. But I don't think it will be that extreme.

Agreed. I still think we'll have a "lead" RB emerge, it just won't be as ridiculous as last year where they'll end up with a billion carries. I think you'll see the "relief" back come in more, and to be honest, we might have benefited from a little more "relief" back action last year.

 

[Ken]

McFadden had 155 carries last year and came out fine, and that was behind a horrific OL. I honestly don't think he's nearly as fragile as most here believe - I think it's just a lot easier to let an injury keep you out of a game if you have nothing to play for. When you've got a big contract and the team is playing for draft position sitting out with an injury is a lot easier than when the team has playoff seeding on the line. 7 years of hopelessness with the Raiders might make an injury seem bigger than it would on a team that is fighting for home field throughout the playoffs. Maybe McFadden is as brittle as many here think, but I'd bet he could have suited up and played in many of those Raiders games if they actually meant something.

I agree. I believe that the injury prone label is over used. Sometimes and most times, its just bad luck. I only get concerned with guys with injuries when they have gotten their pay days and all of the sudden hang nails keep them out of games.

LIke with McFadden, the guy has had legitimate injuries and could not play.

See no further than Murray last year. If it wasn't a contract year and wasn't chasing a record and wasn't on a great team, he would have sat....again.

It happens...why play hurt and ruin your career for a garbage team?

 

[big dog cowboy]

Tell me where it ever worked here?

Doesn't mean it can't.

 

[xwalker]

Am I the only one who doesn't like running back by committee?

Depends on the committee.

I also don't like having all my eggs in one basket. One injury, and you're up a creek.

I agree with erod. It depends on how you define committee and being totally dependent on 1 RB is not a great concept either.

Last year (percent of carries):
Murray 83%
Randle 11%
Dunbar 6%

Is this RRBC?
Randle 60%
McFadden + Dunbar 40%

 

[xwalker]

I agree. I believe that the injury prone label is over used. Sometimes and most times, its just bad luck. I only get concerned with guys with injuries when they have gotten their pay days and all of the sudden hang nails keep them out of games.

LIke with McFadden, the guy has had legitimate injuries and could not play.

See no further than Murray last year. If it wasn't a contract year and wasn't chasing a record and wasn't on a great team, he would have sat....again.

It happens...why play hurt and ruin your career for a garbage team?

Career average games played per season:
McFadden 12
Murray 13

People are up in arms about McFadden's injury history but lament not spending big money to retain Murray.

 

[theogt]

I think it's more fun having dominant back. Of course, you have to actually have one of those--and one who can do it multiple years hopefully.
Even Philly plans to use a committee (RBC) this year.

RBC is the general way the league has been going with a few exceptions.

We looked at the last 9 SB winners and I think it was 7 had mostly a RBC approach.
Seattle (Lynch) and Baltimore (Rice), I think, were the only true exceptions.

But yeah, it's more fun watching a bad-*** RB (and line) demoralizing another team.

Even for Baltimore's Super Bowl season, 2012, Rice had only 58% of the team's rush attempts. And Lynch had only 59% of the Seahawks' attempts in 2014. That compares to Murray having 77% of Dallas' rush attempts in 2014.

 

[Iago33]

You miss last season? That's exactly how the Cowboys won.

Where's Adam when you need him... we won because of our passing efficiency compared to our defensive passing efficiency. One could argue that our running helped our defense, but it's hard to show direct correlation.

 

[Dave_in-NC]

Where's Adam when you need him... we won because of our passing efficiency compared to our defensive passing efficiency. One could argue that our running helped our defense, but it's hard to show direct correlation.

I don't disagree, but you just have to look at the games. Our ability to run helped out Romo big time. Romo's best season came hand in hand with the best rushing season of his career.

 

[Ken]

Career average games played per season:
McFadden 12
Murray 13

People are up in arms about McFadden's injury history but lament not spending big money to retain Murray.

Exactly!

Look at a guy like Lee...has has a run of legitimate injuries amd he is labeled as glass. Real, legitimate, serious injuries.

No one would question his toughness or his passion for the game but people say he is brittle.

I predict that he will play all 16 and then some this year.

 

[Iago33]

I don't disagree, but you just have to look at the games. Our ability to run helped out Romo big time. Romo's best season came hand in hand with the best rushing season of his career.

It also came with the best OLine he's ever had. I would like to see them run effectively and use it to keep balance. But I still think effective passing and defending the pass has the most correlation to winning. My eyes tell me running helps our defense and our passing game, but I can't support that with evidence. I just think people have gone overboard about the importance of running the ball after our overall success last year.

 

[HellCrowe]

Exactly!

Look at a guy like Lee...has has a run of legitimate injuries amd he is labeled as glass. Real, legitimate, serious injuries.

No one would question his toughness or his passion for the game but people say he is brittle.

I predict that he will play all 16 and then some this year.

That's a big wager. Very very hopeful but let's look at stats.

http://neverhaditradio.sportsblog.com/posts/1965289/demarco_murray_v_darren_mcfadden_comparison.html

Minus the other things in the article look at the stats when compared side by side. Before last year Murray was injury prone. Whether bad luck or fragile everyone on here was worried about him staying healthy. Then we scramble around trying to figure who will or where can we get the same production. Then we just have Romo throw the ball more and we all know what happens from there.

Now look at Mcfadden. He actually did finish 16 games one year but only started 12 of those. It's misguided information when you say Demarco and Darren have compareable games played per season. Just because they last 12 games does not make them healthy.

It's a good thing he wil be sharing carries with Randle and Dunbar. Do I think he can carry the load? Im not putting money on it. I'm hoping a 1-2-3 punch can work but you cannot tell me the injury talk is over blown. It's not.

You know and I know that's why RBs have lesser of a value now than before due to the physicality of the position. Like I mentioned in another thread. There is thinking positives but let's not disregard these facts. Both Demarco and Darren have a long history of trying to be healthy to stay on the field. Let's not be blind by our optimism.

 

[BlindFaith]

It also came with the best OLine he's ever had. I would like to see them run effectively and use it to keep balance. But I still think effective passing and defending the pass has the most correlation to winning. My eyes tell me running helps our defense and our passing game, but I can't support that with evidence. I just think people have gone overboard about the importance of running the ball after our overall success last year.

The highest statistical correlation to winning - over 80% - is when a team runs the ball more than 30 times a game. Well, except the team that scores the most. They win 100% of the time.

 

[Ken]

That's a big wager. Very very hopeful but let's look at stats.

http://neverhaditradio.sportsblog.com/posts/1965289/demarco_murray_v_darren_mcfadden_comparison.html

Minus the other things in the article look at the stats when compared side by side. Before last year Murray was injury prone. Whether bad luck or fragile everyone on here was worried about him staying healthy. Then we scramble around trying to figure who will or where can we get the same production. Then we just have Romo throw the ball more and we all know what happens from there.

Now look at Mcfadden. He actually did finish 16 games one year but only started 12 of those. It's misguided information when you say Demarco and Darren have compareable games played per season. Just because they last 12 games does not make them healthy.

It's a good thing he wil be sharing carries with Randle and Dunbar. Do I think he can carry the load? Im not putting money on it. I'm hoping a 1-2-3 punch can work but you cannot tell me the injury talk is over blown. It's not.

You know and I know that's why RBs have lesser of a value now than before due to the physicality of the position. Like I mentioned in another thread. There is thinking positives but let's not disregard these facts. Both Demarco and Darren have a long history of trying to be healthy to stay on the field. Let's not be blind by our optimism.

I agree, if i was a betting man, i would take the injury.

BUT...while there is some level of homerism in my belief that Mcfadden will be fine this year, it is also that I have been a big fan of his for a long time. Drafted him in multiple fantasy leagues and was disappointed mostly because of injury. When he played, he was productive and a tough runner.

Lee i am confident will have a healthy year, he is due. I think Mcfadden may miss a game or two but we can live with that.

 

[percyhoward]

Can you provide the number of attempts for each of the above and how they compare to the other teams mentioned?

Dallas attempts (plays) on
3rd and...
short (1-2) 44 7th
medium (3-6) 71 9th
long (7-9) 37 23rd
very long (10+) 49 31st

As you would expect of one of the league's best offenses, the 3rd-down plays at short-to medium distance (115) outnumber the ones at long-to very long distance (86). But those 201 3rd down plays include both the successful plays and the failed ones. If you're trying to figure out where most of Dallas 3rd down success came from, then you're only interested in the conversions.

3rd Down Conversions on passing downs (3rd and 3+)
as a percentage of total 3rd-down conversions
Dallas 71 of 106 67.0%
NFL avg. 63.1 of 99.7 63.3%

Most teams relied more heavily on 3rd-and-short situations for their conversions than Dallas did in 2014. That's why 15 other teams averaged fewer yards to go on the 3rd downs they converted. In case anyone is interested, of the Cowboys' 71 conversions on 3rd and 3+ yards to go, 67 were passes, 3 were QB scrambles, and 1 was a RB run.

 

[percyhoward]

The highest statistical correlation to winning - over 80% - is when a team runs the ball more than 30 times a game. Well, except the team that scores the most. They win 100% of the time.

First, that isn't true. There are many, many other statistics with higher win correlations.

Second, you're confusing cause with effect. Teams that are winning run a lot in the 4th quarter, so you get correlation without causation. If more running really led to wins, all 32 teams would simply run more.

 

[Vanilla2]

I remember Dallas having success with the running back by committee with MB3 and gang

 

[HellCrowe]

I remember Dallas having success with the running back by committee with MB3 and gang

Not that telling. Made the playoffs once