I hope I'm wrong as well. I really do. I think the US has the determination to qualify. If it came down to the US vs Honduras, I don't like the US's chances. I don't know though. It won't be as easy as the US would like it to be.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(CONCACAF)#First_round
The US received a bye to the 3rd round of the CONCACAF qualifiers along with Mexico, Jamaica, Costa RIca, and Honduras due to world rankings.
Currently, the US is in 4th (which will change as the qualifiers are played). The 4th place AFC country, the 4th place CONCACAF country, the 5th place South American team, and the winner of the Oceania Federation qualifiers would be in that playoff with, of course, two of the four advancing in victory to the WC. The winner of Groups B and E will be first according to this table, and the winner of A and F will be 3rd on the table. As of now, Canada is in the lead in Group B, and Nicaragua is in 1st in Group E. I fully expect Canada to win that tussle. As for Group A, first place is currently held by Antigua and Barbuda. Group F is currently led by Saint Kitts and Nevis. Additionally, Canada only has Suriname left to play who are in 2nd in that group. I fully expect Canada to win that. Nicaragua only has Belize left, who I expect them to beat. However, if they lose and Haiti wins, then Haiti would take the lead. You can see the rest of it in the above link.
Depending on how it plays out, the US is going to have quite the tussle. I completely forgot about Jamaica. They'll be dangerous for the US too.