Draft prediction

[Stash]

I get that. I'm musing about who could want to trade up before NO or Pitt if they think one of those two teams are going to take a QB with their first rounders. Who is in the market and who could make it worth for Dallas to allow them to move up?

It's too difficult to say when we have no idea who did what earlier in the draft and who's still available. Too many variables involved to form any sort of a conclusive idea. There is no shortage of teams who could be looking for a young, developmental quarterback, and that 5th year option lines up very well with developing players, especially at this biggest salaried position in football.

But I can definitely see Dallas being open to a move down if it presents itself, especially if they're not in love with the prospects available or feel that there's several they'd be happy with.

I actually agree about getting more picks this year since it's a good draft to address positions Dallas needs help at but other teams are also aware it's a deep class so grabbing someone's 2 and 3 might be harder than a 2 this year and a 1 next.

I don't see a "3" being more valuable than a "1" under any circumstances.

 

[HookEmCowboys]

It's too difficult to say when we have no idea who did what earlier in the draft and who's still available. Too many variables involved to form any sort of a conclusive idea. There is no shortage of teams who could be looking for a young, developmental quarterback, and that 5th year option lines up very well with developing players, especially at this biggest salaried position in football.

But I can definitely see Dallas being open to a move down if it presents itself, especially if they're not in love with the prospects available or feel that there's several they'd be happy with.

I don't see a "3" being more valuable than a "1" under any circumstances.

Obviously it's hard to predict that sort of stuff but this thread is supposed to be about draft predictions I'm of the mind that teams are likely going to value their picks this year and want to collect on the depth of the draft. If someone really wants a QB they can take them with their 1.

I also agree with you about Dallas being open to moving down depending on how the board shapes up. SJ has talked about not wanting to draft just for need, so it may be a BPA deal or choosing to slide back to grab a guy they had at a lower grade later plus an extra pick to add depth. I'd be happy with that.

Head to head, 1 > 3 obviously but going back to my original point about the depth this draft class I think teams will be stingier with their picks for this year and more willing to give up something they don't even have or know where it'll end up yet as to not miss out now.

Just my idea though, I'm not a GM

 

[Risen Star]

I don't see a "3" being more valuable than a "1" under any circumstances.

It's alarming how many fans do. That rightnow fix means next year's picks are less valuable.

That must mean this year's picks are less valuable than last year's too.

It's a special line of thinking.

 

[HookEmCowboys]

Maybe I'm not being clear enough. I am not arguing that a 3 is better than a 1. I am saying that if a team wants to move up this year, I believe they more likely would want to pay later than pay now, for the same reason you said Dallas would want more picks this year.

 

[rambo2]

Yeah, I corrected myself. Still think it's unlikely the Steelers take a QB first round simply because I don't believe they're at a point where they have decided Big Ben isn't good enough anymore. Offense wasn't their problem this past season or why the got whipped by the Pats. They need help in the secondary and lost several LBs in FA. So no, I doubt a QB is their pick.

If the Saints really want a QB they could just pick one with their first pick in the top 15. They also have holes everywhere on their roster and Brees was solid last year. Doubt a QB is their top priority.

The Steelers and the Saints want the rookie qb to sit behind their starters for a year and learn.

 

[rambo2]

I get that. I'm musing about who could want to trade up before NO or Pitt if they think one of those two teams are going to take a QB with their first rounders. Who is in the market and who could make it worth for Dallas to allow them to move up?

I actually agree about getting more picks this year since it's a good draft to address positions Dallas needs help at but other teams are also aware it's a deep class so grabbing someone's 2 and 3 might be harder than a 2 this year and a 1 next.

The Browns, 49ers, and Bears could all trade up for a qb.

 

[HookEmCowboys]

The Steelers and the Saints want the rookie qb to sit behind their starters for a year and learn.

I can see that. Better question is which team is in a good enough position to forego more pressing needs to draft a backup QB?

 

[rambo2]

I can see that. Better question is which team is in a good enough position to forego more pressing needs to draft a backup QB?

Both, look at teams that don't have any qbs and what happens to them over time. If you want to stay up there, you have to draft qbs like Green Bay did when they drafted Rodgers.

 

[StarBoyz83]

Don't see either team doing that. Both teams qbs will play another 3 years at least. Steelers for sure won't waste picks. Theyre the 2nd best team in the afc and are in win now mode.

 

[GhostOfPelluer]

I think we're in no man's land. I doubt Pittsburgh wants a QB that early so teams could want to jump ahead of NO to Atl spot or Pit themselves. Otherwise they may need to jump KC which would make our pick too late.

 

[Floatyworm]

If he ends up going in the first, then I will just resign myself to the fact that NFL talent evaluators are completely clueless about the QB position and really just are taking random crazy shots at them.

Webb reminds me of Tom Savage a few years ago and he was getting hyped by everybody unnecessarily. He ended up going about where he was originally projected to go.

Mahomes is the one QB I can see a team getting excited enough about to risk it.

weird I'm thinking just the opposite...

 

[Stash]

Maybe I'm not being clear enough. I am not arguing that a 3 is better than a 1. I am saying that if a team wants to move up this year, I believe they more likely would want to pay later than pay now, for the same reason you said Dallas would want more picks this year.

That's fine, but they wouldn't give up a #1 pick to do it for the ability to keep that 3rd rounder today. This draft might be deep, but it's not that deep.

And, again, I think that Dallas will be looking for payment now not later. If anything, I'd expect them to trade away their own 2018 draft capital before they accepted it from someone else.

 

[ksg811]

If any trade movement is happening, it's going be into the top of the 2nd with Cleveland, SF, or Chicago moving up for a QB to compliment their 1st round pick(s). They get a 5th year option and Dallas takes a small dip, takes a similar quality player and picks up an extra 4th. If either Pittsburgh or NO is moving up, it's ahead of the Cowboys to snatch a defensive player, not a trade with a QB.

Another option would be trading around in the middle rounds. With likely 4 compensatory picks coming next year (my prediction is a 4, 2 5ths and a 6th), that provides excess capital to move around between rounds 3-5 to acquire specific targets.

 

[Alexander]

weird I'm thinking just the opposite...

Then I know I am on the right track.

 

[Sydla]

I think it takes a 2018 first to to get us to move out of the first. Possible if a team wants a QB, but not unlikely

Maybe if a team later in the 2nd round is trying to move up but a team in the first 5-10 picks in the 2nd round won't be giving up a future 1st rounder.

 

[HookEmCowboys]

That's fine, but they wouldn't give up a #1 pick to do it for the ability to keep that 3rd rounder today. This draft might be deep, but it's not that deep.

And, again, I think that Dallas will be looking for payment now not later. If anything, I'd expect them to trade away their own 2018 draft capital before they accepted it from someone else.

You're talking out of both sides of your mouth and we're going in circles now.

1's are never as valuable as 3's but Dallas would want a 3 now over a future 1?

Two 3's today vs two 1's tomorrow.

We'll agree to disagree I guess.

 

[Idgit]

...I don't see a "3" being more valuable than a "1" under any circumstances.

You're right, but for argument's sake, next year's picks are generally devalued a round as a rule of thumb in trading. So, that makes the normalized trade value a 2 for a three. Then you could see a case where a bad team this year (say, picking top five each round) thinks they'll be picking a lot later next year because clearly they're a team on the rise. so a late 2 for an early three is what we're talking about. Still doesn't close the gap, but then let's also say this draft is deeper in players with 2nd round grades than next year's draft....

Can't quite get there, but you can get pretty close.

That said, of course you're right. If we drop back, it'll be less than 15 spots and to add another 3rd or 4th round pick. It's nice to be at the back of that first round, though, where the QBs come back into play and the 5th year option is attractive for teams looking to trade back up into the first day.

 

[Stash]

You're talking out of both sides of your mouth and we're going in circles now.

1's are never as valuable as 3's but Dallas would want a 3 now over a future 1?

Two 3's today vs two 1's tomorrow.

We'll agree to disagree I guess.

No, I'm staying consistant. You're the guy trying to put 1st rounders and 3rd rounders on the same level.

I'll certainly "agree to disagree" with that.

 

[Stash]

You're right, but for argument's sake, next year's picks are generally devalued a round as a rule of thumb in trading. So, that makes the normalized trade value a 2 for a three. Then you could see a case where a bad team this year (say, picking top five each round) thinks they'll be picking a lot later next year because clearly they're a team on the rise. so a late 2 for an early three is what we're talking about. Still doesn't close the gap, but then let's also say this draft is deeper in players with 2nd round grades than next year's draft....

Can't quite get there, but you can get pretty close.

That's the standard, a 2nd rounder this year would cost you next year's 1st rounder. But there's no way anyone does that for a 3rd rounder this year, no matter how deep the draft. And a team looking to add needed pieces now isn't interested in future promissory notes either. They'll trade their own future picks, but they're not taking them from someone else.

That said, of course you're right. If we drop back, it'll be less than 15 spots and to add another 3rd or 4th round pick. It's nice to be at the back of that first round, though, where the QBs come back into play and the 5th year option is attractive for teams looking to trade back up into the first day.

That's what I'm thinking, unless there's a player there that they truly love. If they think there's a catalytic pass rusher or potential starting cornerback, I'd expect that they'd stay out and take them. If they have a group they rate closely, I think they'd listen to offers to move down and acquire more picks. I won't be shocked if we don't make a pick on Day One.

 

[Alexander]

We are about a month out and I think some things are coming into clear focus at least from what I see with the tea leaves.

Dallas tends to draft for "roles" when they lose players. That is one reason why you see bit players that are viewed as non-critical hang around, like Dunbar and Hayden.

• Pass rush will not be nearly the priority we thought it should be. For the people expecting a bunch of "rushmen" to be added, it is probably better right now to save yourself the angst and buckle your seat belt. Unless there is a "war daddy" that makes it to 28, we will likely see a different direction in the first round. Probably a corner and a slim chance of a safety. That would be unfortunate, but that is the way it is looking. I can easily see them taking a look at the returning incumbents, see a full meeting room and then start rationalizing. Well, Taco Charlton is not really better than this player or that player. Oh, this player is undersized, would never play all three downs, he'd never get on the field enough.
• Secondary will be the number priority. If they keep saying that after the draft they will be "better" than last year, then only place where that mindset fits with simple body count is the secondary. Two corners to take the spots of Claiborne and Carr, maybe a safety to take the vacated Church role. That is practically half the draft picks and they will be okay with that, amazingly.
• Offense will take a big back burner, with TE first. Then maybe the third down back. The OT situation will probably be allowed to let ride since they feel comfortable handing the RT job over to Green with Bell "competing".
• Forget positions like DT, backup QB and even WR in this draft. The roster is "set". "We like what we have in player X." The usual.

Not really pleased with the outlook, but it is what they are publicly displaying. Unless they are really just super duper covert this year, I expect pretty much all of the above.