Drafting a first round QB

[817Gill]

What the hell? Some of y'all are not that smart when emotions get involved. Saying you want someone drafted in the draft doesn't equal they want someone to win now. It just doesn't no matter how you try to frame it. It just means exactly what you said that people would take a new QB in the draft. Chances are very low you'd win right now talking about a SB with a rookie QB so don't get how the heck you came to that conclusion regarding win now. I don't care who it is Dak isn't it but y'all are scarred to replace him. Maybe you think he is the one and if so ok but I disagree. I think he's average and only really good with top level talent around him. When more is asked of him as a QB he stinks.

What emotions lol you are making random points. No one is talking about the team years down the road. You might be the dude talking to himself about the cowboys in 10 years but the most of us debate if Dak is good enough to win this team a super bowl how it is currently constructed. A roster widely regarded as one of the most talented rosters in the league.

Along with that is Dak’s impeding free agency. Again, when people indicate moving on from him and drafting someone they intend to say that the new draftee will be better. Thus giving the team a better chance to get to the next level. You think people are pining to draft a qb for what it may look like 5 years down the road?

All these conversations are related to this team winning as soon as possible, while staying competitive for the near future. Drafting a quarterback to elevate this team in 3-4 years is not what most people are referring to when having this convo. Who knows what the roster will look like then?

 

[jnday]

Newton has been incredibly inconsistent in his career. I gave him the nod due to the MVP season and making it to a Super Bowl.

But the exact arguments over who is better or not isn’t the main point of the thread.

Shouldn’t be an argument, they are close to being the same player, with many of the same faults.

 

[Starforever]

Most of those QBs were drafted by the worst teams in football.

Dak was drafted into championship level offensive personnel.

It matters.

If Dak was drafted by the Jets or Browns, he'd already be on his third team by now.

Funny, you said championship level, and I bet it was said with a straight face. This team has been questionable, since 1997. Ahem, agenda driven statement...

 

[DandyDon52]

As everyone knows there has been much debate over whether the Cowboys should extend Dak’s contract.

some believe the cowboys should let Dak walk and select a QB in the first round.

this thread is not intended to be a debate over how good Dak ultimately is. I just want to explore the history of drafting QB’s in the first round and see how often QB’s selected in the first round end up being better than Dak has been thus far.

I made a post on this previously in another thread a while back, but feel like it could be its own thread and is worth discussing more.

So, I am going to break down QB’s drafted in the first round from 2007 until 2017. That is 11 drafts total. I am not including QB’s from the two most recent drafts, because I feel it is too soon to make an accurate judgment on how good those QB’s are.

I am going to list every QB taken in the first round and also mark if they were top 5 or not.

2017-
Trubisky (top 5), Mahomes, Deshaun Watson.

2016- Goff (top 5), Wentz (top 5), Paxton Lynch

2015- Jameis Winston (top 5). Mariota (top 5).

2014- Blake Bortles (top 5), Manziel, Bridgewater

2013- Ej Manuel

2012- Luck (top 5), Griffin III (top 5), Tannehill, Weeden

2011- Cam Newton (top 5), Locker, Gabbert, Ponder

2010- Bradford (top 5), Tebow

2009- Stafford (top 5), Sanchez (top 5), Freeman

2008- Matt Ryan (top 5), Joe Flacco

2007- JaMarcus Russel (top 5), Brady Quinn


That is 29 total QB’s taken.

Now I realize that which of those QB’s is better than Dak and which ones aren’t, is open for some debate. I would list it like this:

QB’s better than Dak:
Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan

that is 5 of the last 29 that have been better than Dak.

QB’s in the same tier as Dak:
Goff, Wentz, Stafford, Flacco

That is 4 QB’s who are around the same tier as Dak overall.

Again, this is open for debate. But I think it’s a pretty fair list. There are a few you could argue if you want.


So of 29 QB’s taken, 5 have been clearly better. That is 17%

4 have been about the same as Dak. That is 14%

So you have a 17% chance of getting a QB better than Dak. And a 14% chance of getting one just as good.

That means you have a 69% chance of ending up with a QB that is not even as good as Dak has been.

Broken down further. 3 of the ones who have been better, were top 5 picks.

3 of the ones on the same level as Dak were top 5 picks.

15 of the 29 QB’s first round were drafted outside of the Top 5 picks. Only 3 of those 15 have been as good or better than Dak. That’s 20%

Only 20% of the QB’s drafted beyond top 5 has been as good or better than Dak.


What does this all mean?

In my opinion, what this means is, even though Dak is not an elite QB. Replacing him and getting an elite QB, or one better than him is FAR from a guaranteed thing. You have an 69% chance of drafting a QB who ends up not being even as good as Dak is.

The chances of getting a QB better than Dak plummets even further If you are taking one outside of the top 5. As we all know, high end QB prospects get taken very early in the draft.

So in my opinion, if the Cowboys do try and replace Dak with a first round QB. We have to remember that the chances are very good, that the QB won’t even be as good as Dak has been.

It’s not just about “let’s take a 1st round QB”. It has to be the RIGHT prospect.

We must also remember that to get a top 5 pick to have the best odds of landing a QB better than Dak. The Cowboys would have to either tank a season, or trade MULTIPLE first round picks, to move up into the top 5.

And even after all that, If that top 5 pick busts or isn’t any better than Dak. You have wasted a bunch of draft capital, and are no better off at the position than you currently are. Or even worse, your QB sucks and you have to draft another QB a few years later again, all the while having a team that can’t win.

I have said in the past, that I would not necessarily just be opposed to letting Dak walk. But as the history shows, replacing Dak could be much much more difficult than just throwing a first round pick at the QB position. There are a ton of QB’s taken high, who never amount to anything.

good post, The other thing is the HC and coaching staff and GM factor in, along with the defense and other offensive players as to how good a QB will do.
Look at Goff, with 1 HC he was a bust, then new HC and staff due to GM making the change, and boom goff was in the SB.
How good would Dak be if he was in KC?? Would Mahomes be as good here with JG and staff and our playbook and wr?
I have said for awhile now that the jones boys drafting a good QB is very unlikely , and like you say getting to pick in top 5 is not
easy, but to get a good qb that is where you need to pick.
Dallas could have had Garapolo, but were not even interested in him , so what does that tell you ??

 

[HungryLion]

Shouldn’t be an argument, they are close to being the same player, with many of the same faults.

They have some similarities sure. But they aren’t really close to being the same player.

Dak is much more accurate than Cam.

Cam is a more dangerous runner.

 

[Techsass]

In the 2016 draft, the Cowboys only took Dak after trying to trade up for Paxton Lynch (1st round) then Connor Cook (3rd). They fell into Dak by accident.

Go back a bit in time, when Jerry moved to get Quincy Carter. They fell into Romo by accident.

Then let's not forget Jerry wanted Johnny Football, but was finally talked out of it by everyone in the room.

"Dump Dak and draft a 'franchise' QB!"

It sounds so easy, but remember who will be doing the picking.

Aikman is the only good QB we've actually picked in the draft since Landry. Tony & Dak were unexpected gifts. I don't think either was expected to become the starting QB when they were drafted.

 

[HungryLion]

Good thread and you were correct to error on the side of NOT over-rating Dak relative to other QBs in order to make the point.

Drafting a QB with a top 10 pick is a huge gamble.

Most teams do it based on when they have a top 10 pick and when they need a QB, NOT when the QBs in the draft are the best or best fit of the QBs a few years prior or a few years after that particular draft.

One year in history Payton Manning was the #1 QB but another year it was Eli Manning. That's a huge difference but both required the #1 overall pick.

At this point neither Goff or Wentz appear to be "great" or top 5 QBs of the decade types.

Football fans could debate indefinitely about where each current NFL QB ranks.

Guys like Andrew Luck*, Cam Newton & Matt Ryan all have excellent physical talent but I'm not certain if any of them are or were "winners".

Dak on the other hand (to me) has the characteristics of a "winner".

Neither Dak or Romo were the prototype NFL QB like Aikman.
- Aikman was basically a robot designed to play QB (6-4, cannon arm and extremely accurate with a Witten/S.Lee type of focus on football).

Fit is a huge issue also. Aikman and Dez would never in the history of ever have been compatible, but Romo allowed Dez to become a superstar.
- Aikman thrived on structure.
- Romo thrived on lack of structure.
- Dak thrives on structure.

I have ZERO doubts that Dak can win Super Bowls with the right combination of coaching staff and teammates.

Availability is also a huge issue. We all laugh at Eli, but he only missed 1 start from 2005 to 2018 and the 1 missed start was at age 36. He also has 2 SB wins.

Dak has been much more available than QBs like Wentz.

From a probability perspective, the odds are far greater of winning Super Bowls with Dak than they are if Dak departed and the Cowboys drafted another QB even if that QB is #1 overall.

Good points @xwalker


I hadn’t considered the angle of teams taking whether QB is available with a top pick, the year they have a top pick, regardless of who that QB is. But you’re right. Most teams don’t PLAN on having top 5-10 picks every year. So if they have a top 5 pick, and need a QB, and one is there. Often they are drafting them no matter what. Even if they don’t necessarily fit the mold of what they’re trying to do.

That does add an additional layer to whether or not a QB is successful, even beyond the supporting cast. As often fitting a square peg into a round hole, scheme wise, is a recipe for disaster.

It’s also a highlight of why it’s hard to find your QB. Say you do tank a season and have a top 5 pick. But there isn’t a QB worth taking that fits what you do? now you need to tank another season? Or another season? You could need to tank for 2-3 years before finding “your guy” as most drafts don’t have truly elite prospects beyond the first or second pick. Unless of course you’re willing to trade away a bunch of first rounders to move up. But then you make it harder to maintain the rest of the team around them.

then you have to develop the QB. Nobody should expect any rookie QB to be ready to win a championship in their first year. Even the most special ones needed 2-3 years to get there. Before you know it, you’ve now spent over half a decade between tanking and developing a QB. All the while the supporting cast you had, some of them
Age, some of them get injured, some of them leave in FA.

All those reasons make it an incredibly complicated thing. That’s why I think a team that’s ready to try and win now, and has a 2-3 year window like I believe the Cowboys do, it doesn’t make sense to move on. IMO.

 

[Pants]

last time I checked, Dak has the highest QBR in the league at the moment and that is with Garrett taking over play-calling (presumably) in the 3 losses (at least in the first half when they we using linehan's playbook)....

IMO, drafting a QB high is hit-or-miss, especially seeing the list in the OP; other than a select few from that list (Mahomes, for example), I would not take any of them over Dak....the QB is only as good as his surrounding parts and as good as his durability....Dallas has chosen to bring in the surrounding parts around Dak instead of grabbing a QB in round 1....the talent level is there for Dallas at the moment...but, had they done something to go get a QB, they might not have pros Zach Martin, Ty Smith, the beard, Byron Jones, and of course, Zeke and LVE more recently - that is 6 pro-bowlers in the last 9 drafts (and we traded out one of those years for another pro-bowler in Coop)...so, I like the direction that Dallas has taken in the first round and was kinda relieved when they didn't trade it away for Adams since I know that they will likely get great value for that spot....Dallas lucked into Dak after missing on a few guys in that draft so keep Moore calling his plays and give red a sandwich and let him sit on the sidelines quietly...I say sign the guy long-term as long as the amount is not oppressive to keeping the latelent level where it is, and keep building around him (might want to use that #32 pick in April to get a LT)

 

[Vintage]

Says the know-nothing clown who said Colt McCoy and Tyrod Taylor are just as good as Dak.

The same Dak whose team is in 1st place (yet again), whose QBR is #1 in the NFL and whose passer rating is #8 in the NFL.

Dak has taken a MASSIVE **** on your face and has thoroughly ruined this era of Cowboys football for you. You’re his little *****.

Is this the only thing you post nowadays?

 

[Philmonroe]

What emotions lol you are making random points. No one is talking about the team years down the road. You might be the dude talking to himself about the cowboys in 10 years but the most of us debate if Dak is good enough to win this team a super bowl how it is currently constructed. A roster widely regarded as one of the most talented rosters in the league.

Along with that is Dak’s impeding free agency. Again, when people indicate moving on from him and drafting someone they intend to say that the new draftee will be better. Thus giving the team a better chance to get to the next level. You think people are pining to draft a qb for what it may look like 5 years down the road?

All these conversations are related to this team winning as soon as possible, while staying competitive for the near future. Drafting a quarterback to elevate this team in 3-4 years is not what most people are referring to when having this convo. Who knows what the roster will look like then?

Im not making random points you just making up stuff because you’re in your feelings. I said nobody is saying a rookie is a win now option and you trying to skirt around that fact. Dak isn’t good enough to do much of anything if everything isn’t perfect.

I don’t take 5 years genius for a better player than Dak to reveal themselves. That’s that emotional disingenuous stuff I’m talking about. Did it take Mahommes that long to be better than Daks football father Alex Smith? It doesn’t take 3-4 years but the keep average Dak crew stay exaggerating the numbers.

 

[Sandyf]

Interesting to say the least and opinions are opinions like them or not. Out of the 29 listed, I would probably only take Watson and Mahomes over Dak. Many reasons why others don't fit for me such as Goff who look like a bust until McVay came along or Wentz who seems to be injured way to much. Have to look at the team and what the team puts around the guy. The NFL has changed over the last 12 years quite a bit so frankly I would want a mobile guy and one that can stay relative healthy.

The other item is where you draft and it plays a huge part along with scouting. There is no way that Mahomes or Watson should have lasted until around 10th pick.

 

[Cowboysheelsreds053]

This team is not spending a first rounder on a QB.

 

[SlammedZero]

Funny, found this slideshow this morning and enjoyed going through it. Definitely shows you how hard it is to hit on a good one.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nf...-in-this-decade/ss-AAJaDWH?li=BBnb7Kz#image=1

 

[HungryLion]

Funny, found this slideshow this morning and enjoyed going through it. Definitely shows you how hard it is to hit on a good one.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nf...-in-this-decade/ss-AAJaDWH?li=BBnb7Kz#image=1

Thanks for sharing. Yes. There’s a whole lot of garbage on that list before you start getting to ones who are worth keeping.