Drafting a first round QB

[HungryLion]

So you draft one in the 1st every year by the third year you've got one at least as good as Dak and a chance to be better.

I'd be someone who drafted a crapton of QBs until I found one. Similar to how the Seahawks did after Carroll took over pre-Russell Wilson.

And as an aside Brady is leaving NE next year lol

That sounds like a good way to drastically reduce the overall talent level of your team. Throwing away first rounders.

I don’t remember the Seahawks going draft crazy with QB’s. Didn’t they sign Matt Flynn prior today drafting Russell with a 3rd rounder?

 

[dfense]

2013 thru 2015 were some lean QB years.

 

[HungryLion]

2013 thru 2015 were some lean QB years.

There is definitely peaks and valleys.

 

[bsbellomy]

As everyone knows there has been much debate over whether the Cowboys should extend Dak’s contract.

some believe the cowboys should let Dak walk and select a QB in the first round.

this thread is not intended to be a debate over how good Dak ultimately is. I just want to explore the history of drafting QB’s in the first round and see how often QB’s selected in the first round end up being better than Dak has been thus far.

I made a post on this previously in another thread a while back, but feel like it could be its own thread and is worth discussing more.

So, I am going to break down QB’s drafted in the first round from 2007 until 2017. That is 11 drafts total. I am not including QB’s from the two most recent drafts, because I feel it is too soon to make an accurate judgment on how good those QB’s are.

I am going to list every QB taken in the first round and also mark if they were top 5 or not.

2017-
Trubisky (top 5), Mahomes, Deshaun Watson.

2016- Goff (top 5), Wentz (top 5), Paxton Lynch

2015- Jameis Winston (top 5). Mariota (top 5).

2014- Blake Bortles (top 5), Manziel, Bridgewater

2013- Ej Manuel

2012- Luck (top 5), Griffin III (top 5), Tannehill, Weeden

2011- Cam Newton (top 5), Locker, Gabbert, Ponder

2010- Bradford (top 5), Tebow

2009- Stafford (top 5), Sanchez (top 5), Freeman

2008- Matt Ryan (top 5), Joe Flacco

2007- JaMarcus Russel (top 5), Brady Quinn


That is 29 total QB’s taken.

Now I realize that which of those QB’s is better than Dak and which ones aren’t, is open for some debate. I would list it like this:

QB’s better than Dak:
Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan

that is 5 of the last 29 that have been better than Dak.

QB’s in the same tier as Dak:
Goff, Wentz, Stafford, Flacco

That is 4 QB’s who are around the same tier as Dak overall.

Again, this is open for debate. But I think it’s a pretty fair list. There are a few you could argue if you want.


So of 29 QB’s taken, 5 have been clearly better. That is 17%

4 have been about the same as Dak. That is 14%

So you have a 17% chance of getting a QB better than Dak. And a 14% chance of getting one just as good.

That means you have a 69% chance of ending up with a QB that is not even as good as Dak has been.

Broken down further. 3 of the ones who have been better, were top 5 picks.

3 of the ones on the same level as Dak were top 5 picks.

15 of the 29 QB’s first round were drafted outside of the Top 5 picks. Only 3 of those 15 have been as good or better than Dak. That’s 20%

Only 20% of the QB’s drafted beyond top 5 has been as good or better than Dak.


What does this all mean?

In my opinion, what this means is, even though Dak is not an elite QB. Replacing him and getting an elite QB, or one better than him is FAR from a guaranteed thing. You have an 69% chance of drafting a QB who ends up not being even as good as Dak is.

The chances of getting a QB better than Dak plummets even further If you are taking one outside of the top 5. As we all know, high end QB prospects get taken very early in the draft.

So in my opinion, if the Cowboys do try and replace Dak with a first round QB. We have to remember that the chances are very good, that the QB won’t even be as good as Dak has been.

It’s not just about “let’s take a 1st round QB”. It has to be the RIGHT prospect.

We must also remember that to get a top 5 pick to have the best odds of landing a QB better than Dak. The Cowboys would have to either tank a season, or trade MULTIPLE first round picks, to move up into the top 5.

And even after all that, If that top 5 pick busts or isn’t any better than Dak. You have wasted a bunch of draft capital, and are no better off at the position than you currently are. Or even worse, your QB sucks and you have to draft another QB a few years later again, all the while having a team that can’t win.

I have said in the past, that I would not necessarily just be opposed to letting Dak walk. But as the history shows, replacing Dak could be much much more difficult than just throwing a first round pick at the QB position. There are a ton of QB’s taken high, who never amount to anything.

Curious where Derek Carr is. He's been much better this season under Gruden and to me he's creeping back into that middle tier. Also why exclude 2018, you've got a couple QBs in there that are probably middling territory. Kyler Murray too, dude has been really good.

 

[bsbellomy]

That sounds like a good way to drastically reduce the overall talent level of your team. Throwing away first rounders.

I don’t remember the Seahawks going draft crazy with QB’s. Didn’t they sign Matt Flynn prior today drafting Russell with a 3rd rounder?

Yeah I'm not actually suggesting using first rounders every year, but I wouldn't be afraid to draft a guy with premium picks if I thought he was a good QB just because we had a decent one.

I don't have data on the Seahawks I just remember them going through a number of guys before Wilson. They did sign Flynn to a big contract but they didn't stick with him long when it was clear he wasn't good.

 

[HungryLion]

Curious where Derek Carr is. He's been much better this season under Gruden and to me he's creeping back into that middle tier. Also why exclude 2018, you've got a couple QBs in there that are probably middling territory. Kyler Murray too, dude has been really good.

derek Carr was a second rounder.

I also explained why I left out 2018 and 2019.

if you wanted to include 2018 you would have Mayfield, Allen, Darnold, Rosen, and Jackson.

3 of them are definitely not playing as well as Dak right now. 4 is arguable.

Jackson is playing really well.
Baker played well the second half of last year but has been struggling this year.
Again I think it’s too soon to fairly judge them though.

Darnold, Allen and Rosen have all been struggling.

 

[bsbellomy]

derek Carr was a second rounder.

I also explained why I left out 2018 and 2019.

if you wanted to include 2018 you would have Mayfield, Allen, Darnold, Rosen, and Jackson.

3 of them are definitely not playing as well as Dak right now. 4 is arguable.

Jackson is playing really well.
Baker played well the second half of last year but has been struggling this year.
Again I think it’s too soon to fairly judge them though.

Darnold, Allen and Rosen have all been struggling.

Josh Allen is really underrated though and he is definitely surrounded by trash. He would be a lot better here.

My bad on Carr, I could have sworn he was a first rounder, but he was close lol.

 

[HungryLion]

Josh Allen is really underrated though and he is definitely surrounded by trash. He would be a lot better here.

My bad on Carr, I could have sworn he was a first rounder, but he was close lol.

No. Allen isn’t underrated. People complain about Dak’s accuracy. Allen is far less accurate.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Both Cam and Ryan have and did put their team on their backs to the team to a Superbowl. So until Dak can even get the Cowboys to a NFC title game, I say Cam and Ryan are better.
As far as the post to spark this, great post. Agree !

Well Trent Dilfer and Eli Manning took their teams to the Super Bowl too so does that mean they are better than Dak? If this was 3 years ago I think I'd agree with you. But how long do you call them championship quarterbacks when their teams have perennial stunk since then.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

No. Allen isn’t underrated. People complain about Dak’s accuracy. Allen is far less accurate.

Allen "looks" the part so he doesn't have accuracy issues lol.

 

[HungryLion]

Allen "looks" the part so he doesn't have accuracy issues lol.

Allen May very well develop. But right now all he does is make his first read and if it’s not open, he scrambles.

his athletic ability is absolutely incredible. But he is still very very raw as a QB.

 

[xwalker]

As everyone knows there has been much debate over whether the Cowboys should extend Dak’s contract.

some believe the cowboys should let Dak walk and select a QB in the first round.

this thread is not intended to be a debate over how good Dak ultimately is. I just want to explore the history of drafting QB’s in the first round and see how often QB’s selected in the first round end up being better than Dak has been thus far.

I made a post on this previously in another thread a while back, but feel like it could be its own thread and is worth discussing more.

So, I am going to break down QB’s drafted in the first round from 2007 until 2017. That is 11 drafts total. I am not including QB’s from the two most recent drafts, because I feel it is too soon to make an accurate judgment on how good those QB’s are.

I am going to list every QB taken in the first round and also mark if they were top 5 or not.

2017-
Trubisky (top 5), Mahomes, Deshaun Watson.

2016- Goff (top 5), Wentz (top 5), Paxton Lynch

2015- Jameis Winston (top 5). Mariota (top 5).

2014- Blake Bortles (top 5), Manziel, Bridgewater

2013- Ej Manuel

2012- Luck (top 5), Griffin III (top 5), Tannehill, Weeden

2011- Cam Newton (top 5), Locker, Gabbert, Ponder

2010- Bradford (top 5), Tebow

2009- Stafford (top 5), Sanchez (top 5), Freeman

2008- Matt Ryan (top 5), Joe Flacco

2007- JaMarcus Russel (top 5), Brady Quinn


That is 29 total QB’s taken.

Now I realize that which of those QB’s is better than Dak and which ones aren’t, is open for some debate. I would list it like this:

QB’s better than Dak:
Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan

that is 5 of the last 29 that have been better than Dak.

QB’s in the same tier as Dak:
Goff, Wentz, Stafford, Flacco

That is 4 QB’s who are around the same tier as Dak overall.

Again, this is open for debate. But I think it’s a pretty fair list. There are a few you could argue if you want.


So of 29 QB’s taken, 5 have been clearly better. That is 17%

4 have been about the same as Dak. That is 14%

So you have a 17% chance of getting a QB better than Dak. And a 14% chance of getting one just as good.

That means you have a 69% chance of ending up with a QB that is not even as good as Dak has been.

Broken down further. 3 of the ones who have been better, were top 5 picks.

3 of the ones on the same level as Dak were top 5 picks.

15 of the 29 QB’s first round were drafted outside of the Top 5 picks. Only 3 of those 15 have been as good or better than Dak. That’s 20%

Only 20% of the QB’s drafted beyond top 5 has been as good or better than Dak.


What does this all mean?

In my opinion, what this means is, even though Dak is not an elite QB. Replacing him and getting an elite QB, or one better than him is FAR from a guaranteed thing. You have an 69% chance of drafting a QB who ends up not being even as good as Dak is.

The chances of getting a QB better than Dak plummets even further If you are taking one outside of the top 5. As we all know, high end QB prospects get taken very early in the draft.

So in my opinion, if the Cowboys do try and replace Dak with a first round QB. We have to remember that the chances are very good, that the QB won’t even be as good as Dak has been.

It’s not just about “let’s take a 1st round QB”. It has to be the RIGHT prospect.

We must also remember that to get a top 5 pick to have the best odds of landing a QB better than Dak. The Cowboys would have to either tank a season, or trade MULTIPLE first round picks, to move up into the top 5.

And even after all that, If that top 5 pick busts or isn’t any better than Dak. You have wasted a bunch of draft capital, and are no better off at the position than you currently are. Or even worse, your QB sucks and you have to draft another QB a few years later again, all the while having a team that can’t win.

I have said in the past, that I would not necessarily just be opposed to letting Dak walk. But as the history shows, replacing Dak could be much much more difficult than just throwing a first round pick at the QB position. There are a ton of QB’s taken high, who never amount to anything.

Good thread and you were correct to error on the side of NOT over-rating Dak relative to other QBs in order to make the point.

Drafting a QB with a top 10 pick is a huge gamble.

Most teams do it based on when they have a top 10 pick and when they need a QB, NOT when the QBs in the draft are the best or best fit of the QBs a few years prior or a few years after that particular draft.

One year in history Payton Manning was the #1 QB but another year it was Eli Manning. That's a huge difference but both required the #1 overall pick.

At this point neither Goff or Wentz appear to be "great" or top 5 QBs of the decade types.

Football fans could debate indefinitely about where each current NFL QB ranks.

Guys like Andrew Luck*, Cam Newton & Matt Ryan all have excellent physical talent but I'm not certain if any of them are or were "winners".

Dak on the other hand (to me) has the characteristics of a "winner".

Neither Dak or Romo were the prototype NFL QB like Aikman.
- Aikman was basically a robot designed to play QB (6-4, cannon arm and extremely accurate with a Witten/S.Lee type of focus on football).

Fit is a huge issue also. Aikman and Dez would never in the history of ever have been compatible, but Romo allowed Dez to become a superstar.
- Aikman thrived on structure.
- Romo thrived on lack of structure.
- Dak thrives on structure.

I have ZERO doubts that Dak can win Super Bowls with the right combination of coaching staff and teammates.

Availability is also a huge issue. We all laugh at Eli, but he only missed 1 start from 2005 to 2018 and the 1 missed start was at age 36. He also has 2 SB wins.

Dak has been much more available than QBs like Wentz.

From a probability perspective, the odds are far greater of winning Super Bowls with Dak than they are if Dak departed and the Cowboys drafted another QB even if that QB is #1 overall.

 

[817Gill]

How many posters have said “draft a guy to win now”? Seems like a bogus argument using a very slim or non existent poster base that said such. I see when people want to prove a point they get real disingenuous just to do so when imo if your logic is sound you don’t have to do such.

Plenty of posters want the team to let Dak go at the end of his deal. Doesn’t that imply that those same posters also want us to draft a qb in the ensuing draft? No one has been pining for us to sign Bridgewater or Dalton.

Unless we draft the first QB ever to lead his team to a SB his rookie year, we would have to wait a few years until the guy can play at an elite level. By then, who knows what the personnel on this team will look like.

Mahomes types are once in a generation and he sat a year. Rodgers sat 2 years. Who in the next two drafts is capable of being that type of player? You want us to drag our feet and throw our hat in the Trevor Lawrence race?

 

[817Gill]

Yeah I'm not actually suggesting using first rounders every year, but I wouldn't be afraid to draft a guy with premium picks if I thought he was a good QB just because we had a decent one.

I don't have data on the Seahawks I just remember them going through a number of guys before Wilson. They did sign Flynn to a big contract but they didn't stick with him long when it was clear he wasn't good.

Nah that’s not entirely true. Flynn was in line to start and never got the chance due to Wilson’s rookie preseason. Russell never even gave Flynn a shot to show if he was capable.

 

[Hadenough]

As everyone knows there has been much debate over whether the Cowboys should extend Dak’s contract.

some believe the cowboys should let Dak walk and select a QB in the first round.

this thread is not intended to be a debate over how good Dak ultimately is. I just want to explore the history of drafting QB’s in the first round and see how often QB’s selected in the first round end up being better than Dak has been thus far.

I made a post on this previously in another thread a while back, but feel like it could be its own thread and is worth discussing more.

So, I am going to break down QB’s drafted in the first round from 2007 until 2017. That is 11 drafts total. I am not including QB’s from the two most recent drafts, because I feel it is too soon to make an accurate judgment on how good those QB’s are.

I am going to list every QB taken in the first round and also mark if they were top 5 or not.

2017-
Trubisky (top 5), Mahomes, Deshaun Watson.

2016- Goff (top 5), Wentz (top 5), Paxton Lynch

2015- Jameis Winston (top 5). Mariota (top 5).

2014- Blake Bortles (top 5), Manziel, Bridgewater

2013- Ej Manuel

2012- Luck (top 5), Griffin III (top 5), Tannehill, Weeden

2011- Cam Newton (top 5), Locker, Gabbert, Ponder

2010- Bradford (top 5), Tebow

2009- Stafford (top 5), Sanchez (top 5), Freeman

2008- Matt Ryan (top 5), Joe Flacco

2007- JaMarcus Russel (top 5), Brady Quinn


That is 29 total QB’s taken.

Now I realize that which of those QB’s is better than Dak and which ones aren’t, is open for some debate. I would list it like this:

QB’s better than Dak:
Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan

that is 5 of the last 29 that have been better than Dak.

QB’s in the same tier as Dak:
Goff, Wentz, Stafford, Flacco

That is 4 QB’s who are around the same tier as Dak overall.

Again, this is open for debate. But I think it’s a pretty fair list. There are a few you could argue if you want.


So of 29 QB’s taken, 5 have been clearly better. That is 17%

4 have been about the same as Dak. That is 14%

So you have a 17% chance of getting a QB better than Dak. And a 14% chance of getting one just as good.

That means you have a 69% chance of ending up with a QB that is not even as good as Dak has been.

Broken down further. 3 of the ones who have been better, were top 5 picks.

3 of the ones on the same level as Dak were top 5 picks.

15 of the 29 QB’s first round were drafted outside of the Top 5 picks. Only 3 of those 15 have been as good or better than Dak. That’s 20%

Only 20% of the QB’s drafted beyond top 5 has been as good or better than Dak.


What does this all mean?

In my opinion, what this means is, even though Dak is not an elite QB. Replacing him and getting an elite QB, or one better than him is FAR from a guaranteed thing. You have an 69% chance of drafting a QB who ends up not being even as good as Dak is.

The chances of getting a QB better than Dak plummets even further If you are taking one outside of the top 5. As we all know, high end QB prospects get taken very early in the draft.

So in my opinion, if the Cowboys do try and replace Dak with a first round QB. We have to remember that the chances are very good, that the QB won’t even be as good as Dak has been.

It’s not just about “let’s take a 1st round QB”. It has to be the RIGHT prospect.

We must also remember that to get a top 5 pick to have the best odds of landing a QB better than Dak. The Cowboys would have to either tank a season, or trade MULTIPLE first round picks, to move up into the top 5.

And even after all that, If that top 5 pick busts or isn’t any better than Dak. You have wasted a bunch of draft capital, and are no better off at the position than you currently are. Or even worse, your QB sucks and you have to draft another QB a few years later again, all the while having a team that can’t win.

I have said in the past, that I would not necessarily just be opposed to letting Dak walk. But as the history shows, replacing Dak could be much much more difficult than just throwing a first round pick at the QB position. There are a ton of QB’s taken high, who never amount to anything.

It's a double edge sword because if you pay Dak then the team around him will lose talent. If Dak were around 10 years ago it would be a no brainer to pay him. But since QB salaries have sky rocketed paying an avg to slightly above avg QB top 5 money is only going to hurt the team as a whole. I think when Dak gets paid and the dust settles down and the lose some FA players and Zeke has a little more wear and tear were going to see an 8-8 team with a QB making 34 mil a year. Without having an elite QB your best chance to win a SB is having a good QB on his rookie contract with a stacked team.

 

[Ring6]

Keep Dak AND draft one.

 

[Philmonroe]

Plenty of posters want the team to let Dak go at the end of his deal. Doesn’t that imply that those same posters also want us to draft a qb in the ensuing draft? No one has been pining for us to sign Bridgewater or Dalton.

Unless we draft the first QB ever to lead his team to a SB his rookie year, we would have to wait a few years until the guy can play at an elite level. By then, who knows what the personnel on this team will look like.

Mahomes types are once in a generation and he sat a year. Rodgers sat 2 years. Who in the next two drafts is capable of being that type of player? You want us to drag our feet and throw our hat in the Trevor Lawrence race?

What the hell? Some of y'all are not that smart when emotions get involved. Saying you want someone drafted in the draft doesn't equal they want someone to win now. It just doesn't no matter how you try to frame it. It just means exactly what you said that people would take a new QB in the draft. Chances are very low you'd win right now talking about a SB with a rookie QB so don't get how the heck you came to that conclusion regarding win now. I don't care who it is Dak isn't it but y'all are scarred to replace him. Maybe you think he is the one and if so ok but I disagree. I think he's average and only really good with top level talent around him. When more is asked of him as a QB he stinks.

 

[KB1122]

IMO, the first round is the place you get great quarterbacks. For the most part.

I'm generally in favor of churning the position until you have The Guy. I don't understand the Cowboys FO desire to commit so thoroughly to one dude.

I mean, if Roger Staubach had to beat out mutliple other quarterbacks, I don't know why Dak or Tony should be spared.

 

[FTWayne]

Um put Dak behind some of these guys bad offensive line. oh you can't so how can you compare them. smh

 

[KB1122]

Keep Dak AND draft one.

And take a flyer on Manziel. And try to lure Luck out of retirement.