Drafting a first round QB

[Diehardblues]

I would argue Cousins isn’t as good as Dak.

Even if you think he is, the Commanders results certainly isn’t a strong argument in favor of making that move.

There is risk to extending Dak. Absolutely there is.
Is that risk greater than letting him walk and using a bunch of draft picks to trade up for a QB?

I personally don’t think it is. I would rather the team use those picks to put a better defense behind him. But that’s just me.

There’s an argument for both. I’m ok with Dak unless we could get someone potentially better.

My problem is if we are a talent dependent team then we either need an Elite QB and or Defense.

Are we that All In on Dak we’re willing to give him 10 years? I’m not sure these 4 years makes me wanting 5 or 6 more?

 

[HungryLion]

There’s an argument for both. I’m ok with Dak unless we could get someone potentially better.

My problem is if we are a talent dependent team then we either need an Elite QB and or Defense.

Are we that All In on Dak we’re willing to give him 10 years? I’m not these 4 years makes me wanting 5 or 6 more?

Then again, If we are talent dependent, and need an elite QB. How often do the truly elite ones come around?

I would say there are what 4-5 truly elite ones in the league right now. Some of them have been around for close to 20 years already. Brady and Brees specifically.

That means a truly elite one comes around every 4-5 years on average? Give or take. Plus there’s other teams trying to get them also. So even when that one does come around, again you have to have the front office that can target them and then beat out other teams to get into position to draft them.

you could waste 10 years on Dak.
You could just as easily waste 10 years on the QB carousel.

There are franchises that have been riding the QB carousel for decades at a time and suffering the entire time too. Look at Washington. Look at the jets. Look at the bills. Look
At the dolphins. Look at Cincinnati. Just some examples.

 

[HungryLion]

Even though they drafted the guy in your avatar...?

they definitely get credit for the fact they scouted and had Dak in for workouts and ultimately were the first team willing to take him.

That being said, there was also heavy luck involved. If the chips fell a bit differently we would have had Paxton Lynch or Connor Cook. Both garbage.

 

[PJTHEDOORS]

There’s an argument for both. I’m ok with Dak unless we could get someone potentially better.

My problem is if we are a talent dependent team then we either need an Elite QB and or Defense.

Are we that All In on Dak we’re willing to give him 10 years? I’m not these 4 years makes me wanting 5 or 6 more?

Better than 70.6% completions (currently)? Better than the Dak who plays his best in 4th quarters, when the pressure is highest. Guess Aikman wouldn't be good enough for some fans, by those standards set for Dak.

 

[ElGatoGrande]

they definitely get credit for the fact they scouted and had Dak in for workouts and ultimately were the first team willing to take him.

That being said, there was also heavy luck involved. If the chips fell a bit differently we would have had Paxton Lynch or Connor Cook. Both garbage.

Andy Reid definitely gets the nod in QB evaluation though I doubt he would have picked Dak any higher.

 

[Diehardblues]

Then again, If we are talent dependent, and need an elite QB. How often do the truly elite ones come around?

I would say there are what 4-5 truly elite ones in the league right now. Some of them have been around for close to 20 years already. Brady and Brees specifically.

That means a truly elite one comes around every 4-5 years on average? Give or take. Plus there’s other teams trying to get them also. So even when that one does come around, again you have to have the front office that can target them and then beat out other teams to get into position to draft them.

you could waste 10 years on Dak.
You could just as easily waste 10 years on the QB carousel.

There are franchises that have been riding the QB carousel for decades at a time and suffering the entire time too. Look at Washington. Look at the jets. Look at the bills. Look
At the dolphins. Look at Cincinnati. Just some examples.

When I say Elite. I mean Elite talent. Anyone you draft obviously isn’t Elite at that point but they have the Elite prolific passing skills you’re ultimately looking for.

And I understand the negative examples. I guess it comes down to are you happy with where we are. Or are you willing to risk a potential setback for hitting the jackpot.

And why I might consider Tagging Dak and drafting a QB. We really need a better backup anyway. Nothing wrong with some insurance at the most important position. Amazing Dak hasn’t been injured yet.

And if he turns out to be a stud , worse case scenario we will get draft capital in a trade from him if we end up retaining Dak. If not hopefully a solid backup. And if Dak had more struggles then we might have our answer.

The way we’ve wasted our top picks in recent years on DL I’d be willing to use a 1st or 2nd on a solid backup QB and someone to challenge Dak in the event.

 

[408Cowboy]

One of the better threads I've read lately. The odds really aren't in your favor if you're picking late in the round and giving up the picks necessary to move up could be debilitating. I don't think Dak has hit his ceiling yet. He's had bad stretches but also shown growth and an ability to bounce back along the way.

 

[Diehardblues]

Better than 70.6% completions (currently)? Better than the Dak who plays his best in 4th quarters, when the pressure is highest. Guess Aikman wouldn't be good enough for some fans, by those standards set for Dak.

Not if the results weren’t any better. Aikman was bashed early and late in his career.

It’s always about the team results when you’re the QB. Same it was for Merideth, Morton, White and Romo. Is Dak going to be another one of those or Staubach and Aikman who both won early in their careers.

That’s fine if your ok with another 10 years like we just had. For me, I’m willing to risk hitting the jackpot. That’s just my personal preference. Especially with this dysfunctional organization which I have no confidence they can uplift lesser talent.

 

[Diehardblues]

Maybe you think we’ve already hit the Jackpot with Dak. I was hopeful his Rookie season but the more I’ve seen him I’m not as sold especially when the Tab is due on new contract.

And he’s looked much better and more consistent this year. But ultimately the results need to come in. I’m not sure we’ll ever be able to afford him the surround talent he has now once we pay him?

So, the argument could be made to roll the dice , pay him and see what happens.

I don’t have much faith this organization will do all the right things to win it all anyway . So maybe if we remain relevant is the best we can hope for which means more of the same.

 

[Oz-of-Cowboy-Country]

A team could go the Parcells route. Build up on defense, get a good running back and bring in a bus driver at QB. Just saying.

 

[Philmonroe]

As everyone knows there has been much debate over whether the Cowboys should extend Dak’s contract.

some believe the cowboys should let Dak walk and select a QB in the first round.

this thread is not intended to be a debate over how good Dak ultimately is. I just want to explore the history of drafting QB’s in the first round and see how often QB’s selected in the first round end up being better than Dak has been thus far.

I made a post on this previously in another thread a while back, but feel like it could be its own thread and is worth discussing more.

So, I am going to break down QB’s drafted in the first round from 2007 until 2017. That is 11 drafts total. I am not including QB’s from the two most recent drafts, because I feel it is too soon to make an accurate judgment on how good those QB’s are.

I am going to list every QB taken in the first round and also mark if they were top 5 or not.

2017-
Trubisky (top 5), Mahomes, Deshaun Watson.

2016- Goff (top 5), Wentz (top 5), Paxton Lynch

2015- Jameis Winston (top 5). Mariota (top 5).

2014- Blake Bortles (top 5), Manziel, Bridgewater

2013- Ej Manuel

2012- Luck (top 5), Griffin III (top 5), Tannehill, Weeden

2011- Cam Newton (top 5), Locker, Gabbert, Ponder

2010- Bradford (top 5), Tebow

2009- Stafford (top 5), Sanchez (top 5), Freeman

2008- Matt Ryan (top 5), Joe Flacco

2007- JaMarcus Russel (top 5), Brady Quinn


That is 29 total QB’s taken.

Now I realize that which of those QB’s is better than Dak and which ones aren’t, is open for some debate. I would list it like this:

QB’s better than Dak:
Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan

that is 5 of the last 29 that have been better than Dak.

QB’s in the same tier as Dak:
Goff, Wentz, Stafford, Flacco

That is 4 QB’s who are around the same tier as Dak overall.

Again, this is open for debate. But I think it’s a pretty fair list. There are a few you could argue if you want.


So of 29 QB’s taken, 5 have been clearly better. That is 17%

4 have been about the same as Dak. That is 14%

So you have a 17% chance of getting a QB better than Dak. And a 14% chance of getting one just as good.

That means you have a 69% chance of ending up with a QB that is not even as good as Dak has been.

Broken down further. 3 of the ones who have been better, were top 5 picks.

3 of the ones on the same level as Dak were top 5 picks.

15 of the 29 QB’s first round were drafted outside of the Top 5 picks. Only 3 of those 15 have been as good or better than Dak. That’s 20%

Only 20% of the QB’s drafted beyond top 5 has been as good or better than Dak.


What does this all mean?

In my opinion, what this means is, even though Dak is not an elite QB. Replacing him and getting an elite QB, or one better than him is FAR from a guaranteed thing. You have an 69% chance of drafting a QB who ends up not being even as good as Dak is.

The chances of getting a QB better than Dak plummets even further If you are taking one outside of the top 5. As we all know, high end QB prospects get taken very early in the draft.

So in my opinion, if the Cowboys do try and replace Dak with a first round QB. We have to remember that the chances are very good, that the QB won’t even be as good as Dak has been.

It’s not just about “let’s take a 1st round QB”. It has to be the RIGHT prospect.

We must also remember that to get a top 5 pick to have the best odds of landing a QB better than Dak. The Cowboys would have to either tank a season, or trade MULTIPLE first round picks, to move up into the top 5.

And even after all that, If that top 5 pick busts or isn’t any better than Dak. You have wasted a bunch of draft capital, and are no better off at the position than you currently are. Or even worse, your QB sucks and you have to draft another QB a few years later again, all the while having a team that can’t win.

I have said in the past, that I would not necessarily just be opposed to letting Dak walk. But as the history shows, replacing Dak could be much much more difficult than just throwing a first round pick at the QB position. There are a ton of QB’s taken high, who never amount to anything.

All this jibba Jabba to say you're scarred to pick a QB because you might do worse than you already have? Lol How about if you look at it as you basically have a 1 in 3 chance to get Dak production or better instead of that scared stuff you putting out? I'm pretty sure most of y'all live your actual lives like this too and its not a good way to live. A good friend of mine said a long time ago that mentality is the reason you really don't have to worry about much competition in this world. Too many people are focused on losing instead of potentially winning.

 

[Batman1980]

Get Lincoln Riley in here now before Garrett does to our young core what he already did to Dez, Romo, Ware, Witten, Bryant and Lee.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Honestly, I think we're past the question of keeping Dak. He's staying, and he's staying for years. He's also going to be paid a fortune. Only question left is can you put enough around him to win.

I think enough is already here and you could win with the right coaching. But there's a good chance we never find that out.

 

[Silly]

Cam Newton must have got his bell rung. He is now dressing like Klinger.

 

[Zman5]

Dak has had a good supporting cast but he had a significant disadvantage playing under JG/Linehan compare to Goffe and Wentz.

Both Goff and Wentz had good supporting cast and much better offensive coaches to start their careers.

 

[jnday]

I hope it doesn’t come to that. Honestly, I don’t want it to break down into a argument over how good Dak is or whatever.

I just wanted to have an honest look at what the odds of adequately replacing him really is.

As the post shows, the chances of landing an elite QB even with a first round QB, are pretty damn slim.

You have to consider that just about every QB that us drafted in the first round goes to horrible teams. Some of those teams have ruined several great QB prospects because they have year after year some of the worst teams in the league. These QB prospects are stuck with these horrible teams throughout their rookie contracts and by that time these QBs have been totally ruined by bad coaching and management. Some of these same teams are coach killers as well and no coach or QB has much of a future after their contract with teams like the Browns, Jets or Bucs. On the other hand, the Pats always seems to get good QB play, even from their back-ups. It is not fair to judge the success of a lot of these top QB prospects drafted high when they might have 2-3 different coaches that they play under in their rookie deal. These same teams are known for never accumulating talent on the team that would make an incoming rookie QB have any chance of success. It is easy to see that a rookie QB can step in and play very well when surrounded by the talent that Dallas currently has. Dak has had success at times and he certainly is not as talented as many of the first round QBs that are taken.

 

[TheSkaven]

Yes, everyone knows that drafting a quarterback is not easy business. As Bill Parcells used to say, you can't just pick up the phone and dial 1-800-QUARTERBACK. And what makes it worse is that the hit rate on 1st round picks for other positions is phenomenal, so if you used a high first on a QB that busts, you could have had a Pro Bowl player at another position.

Then, of course, once you draft a quarterback you need to groom him. Unless you find a generational quarterback like Peyton Manning, he won't be ready to play in year 1. Oh sure, you can play him in year 1, but he won't be ready. So you're burning valuable years of your franchise and wasting years of other players who may be in their prime.

Now that I've agreed with you, let me point out the obvious: Just because it's difficult, that doesn't mean you shouldn't try. We also know that the quarterback position is the most important position in the league. He is the only player on the field that touches the ball on every single offensive snap, so getting the right player here is essential.

The teams that have done this successfully are ones that gambled on multiple quarterbacks. There are so many examples, let me provide a few.

1) Everyone remembers Troy Aikman but the youngins here don't remember that Jimmy Johnson went out and also got Steve Walsh in the supplemental draft. He was fully prepared to go with whatever quarterback was better, and that is key. If you have a guy you drafted in the first round and another you drafted in the 4th, you have to play the better player regardless of where he was picked.

2) Another example that always sticks with me is Mark Brunell and Rob Johnson. Rob Johnson was selected 4th overall by the Jags, but the year before they had traded their 3rd and 5th round picks for Mark Brunell. Turns out Brunell was the better quarterback so they went with him and got rid of Johnson.

3) Bill Belichick. That's all that needs to be said. Even though he has had Tom Brady since 2000, that hasn't stopped him from drafting quality quarterbacks.

Anyway, my points are 1) Just because it's difficult, that doesn't mean you shouldn't try and 2) you should always be trying to upgrade the position; I like Dak Prescott, I want him here, but I see no reason not to find another quarterback as well. In the very worst case you found yourself a quality backup who can play if your QB1 goes down and becomes trade bait later.

 

[Kevinicus]

I would argue it’s the hardest position to fill in all of sports.

The number of QB’s drafted who never amount to anything is staggering.

This list is just first round picks. Many people consider second and third round picks to be premium picks where you expect to get a good player.

imagine how many 2nd and 3rd round QB’s have never amounted to even a decent starting QB in the last 10 years?

Not as staggering as those at other positions...but QBs aren't drafted as often.

 

[BHendri5]

Good post , I like your analysis, I disagree with you but good for a debate with knowledgeable posters and realistic ones, as well as just getting everyone’s opinion.

Here’s where I disagree with you, in my opinion there’s only 2 maybe 3 that are better than Dak from the list Stafford and Luck for sure and maybe Ryan, all 3 has the intangibles , mental capabilities as well as the physical but all three organizations didn’t or has not helped them. Luck was able to overcome that enough to always have his team in the post season conversations. Stafford has not been that skillful or lucky or had the personnel, but he’s dangerous and holds his own. Ryan has overcome enough to make it all the way to the SB, where once again his organization let him down.
Mahomes, and Deshaun Watson are on the same level with Dak. I would go so far as to say Dak is better than both when it comes to leadership. They have more Wow! Exciting plays than Dak , but Dak has his exciting plays too, he is more methodical than them , like Brady and Peyton. That is exciting in its own right depending on what you like most.
We will see how things go for Mahomes , however good Andy Reid is with QBs there’s a reason why he still comes up short of making or winning a SB. Watson has a foolish organization they still think the QB can get you there by himself mostly in their mind they believe he can overcome a suspect Offensive line by giving him the star WRs and RB.
Nah , I am good with Dak I believe he will have a better career than all of them.
Everyone else you listed is below Dak.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

As everyone knows there has been much debate over whether the Cowboys should extend Dak’s contract.

some believe the cowboys should let Dak walk and select a QB in the first round.

this thread is not intended to be a debate over how good Dak ultimately is. I just want to explore the history of drafting QB’s in the first round and see how often QB’s selected in the first round end up being better than Dak has been thus far.

I made a post on this previously in another thread a while back, but feel like it could be its own thread and is worth discussing more.

So, I am going to break down QB’s drafted in the first round from 2007 until 2017. That is 11 drafts total. I am not including QB’s from the two most recent drafts, because I feel it is too soon to make an accurate judgment on how good those QB’s are.

I am going to list every QB taken in the first round and also mark if they were top 5 or not.

2017-
Trubisky (top 5), Mahomes, Deshaun Watson.

2016- Goff (top 5), Wentz (top 5), Paxton Lynch

2015- Jameis Winston (top 5). Mariota (top 5).

2014- Blake Bortles (top 5), Manziel, Bridgewater

2013- Ej Manuel

2012- Luck (top 5), Griffin III (top 5), Tannehill, Weeden

2011- Cam Newton (top 5), Locker, Gabbert, Ponder

2010- Bradford (top 5), Tebow

2009- Stafford (top 5), Sanchez (top 5), Freeman

2008- Matt Ryan (top 5), Joe Flacco

2007- JaMarcus Russel (top 5), Brady Quinn


That is 29 total QB’s taken.

Now I realize that which of those QB’s is better than Dak and which ones aren’t, is open for some debate. I would list it like this:

QB’s better than Dak:
Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan

that is 5 of the last 29 that have been better than Dak.

QB’s in the same tier as Dak:
Goff, Wentz, Stafford, Flacco

That is 4 QB’s who are around the same tier as Dak overall.

Again, this is open for debate. But I think it’s a pretty fair list. There are a few you could argue if you want.


So of 29 QB’s taken, 5 have been clearly better. That is 17%

4 have been about the same as Dak. That is 14%

So you have a 17% chance of getting a QB better than Dak. And a 14% chance of getting one just as good.

That means you have a 69% chance of ending up with a QB that is not even as good as Dak has been.

Broken down further. 3 of the ones who have been better, were top 5 picks.

3 of the ones on the same level as Dak were top 5 picks.

15 of the 29 QB’s first round were drafted outside of the Top 5 picks. Only 3 of those 15 have been as good or better than Dak. That’s 20%

Only 20% of the QB’s drafted beyond top 5 has been as good or better than Dak.


What does this all mean?

In my opinion, what this means is, even though Dak is not an elite QB. Replacing him and getting an elite QB, or one better than him is FAR from a guaranteed thing. You have an 69% chance of drafting a QB who ends up not being even as good as Dak is.

The chances of getting a QB better than Dak plummets even further If you are taking one outside of the top 5. As we all know, high end QB prospects get taken very early in the draft.

So in my opinion, if the Cowboys do try and replace Dak with a first round QB. We have to remember that the chances are very good, that the QB won’t even be as good as Dak has been.

It’s not just about “let’s take a 1st round QB”. It has to be the RIGHT prospect.

We must also remember that to get a top 5 pick to have the best odds of landing a QB better than Dak. The Cowboys would have to either tank a season, or trade MULTIPLE first round picks, to move up into the top 5.

And even after all that, If that top 5 pick busts or isn’t any better than Dak. You have wasted a bunch of draft capital, and are no better off at the position than you currently are. Or even worse, your QB sucks and you have to draft another QB a few years later again, all the while having a team that can’t win.

I have said in the past, that I would not necessarily just be opposed to letting Dak walk. But as the history shows, replacing Dak could be much much more difficult than just throwing a first round pick at the QB position. There are a ton of QB’s taken high, who never amount to anything.

Simply too long for me to waste my time as assuming you're stressing that why risk taking a QB with a no 1 when we have a sure thing with Dak.
An average to BELOW average situation at QB I will add.
This country and Team was not built on settling for the average or mediocre and not seeking excellence.
We are America's team and currently, at QB we have a need to carry guy and not worthy of the position.
If there wasn't a Cap go-ahead and carry the Bum as Jerry could buy the Superbowl.
That same Cap still has Imposter Dak without a mega-deal and depending on what happens the rest of the way don't be surprised if you hear this in the 1st round of the draft in 2020,,,,

And the Dallas Cowboys the 9th overall pick select QB.......