Dropoff after 400 Touch Season (It's a Big One)

[Nation]

In considering whether or not to sign DeMarco Murray The Cowboys will be faced with a ton of production to replace should they move on from the running back. Murray's 2014 campaign was a 449 touch season with 2,261 yards from scrimmage, 4.7 Yards Per Carry, and 13 Total TDs. However, Dallas must make that Yes/No value decision based on what Murray is likely to bring the team in 2015, not based on what he did in 2014.

I took a look at all 400+ touch seasons for running backs since 2003 and the dropoff in the following season is pretty dramatic as the chart below details. Murray has earned the right for his name to be mentioned among the great backs on this list, but even these great backs had their issues after that kind of workload. And while it is easy to throw out a "Yeah, But" when it comes to the capability of the Cowboys offensive line keep in mind that no great running back sees 400 touches without a great offensive line of their own, and the dropoffs after a major workload were universal.

Projecting Murray's numbers using these past results would mean the following:

If we project Murray's 2015 based on the average dropoff, we would expect his 2015 to consist of 346 touches, for 1,441 scrimmage yards, a 3.9 yards per carry, and 5.5 total touchdowns.

If we project Murray's 2015 based on the median dropoff, we would expect his 2015 to consist of 343 touches, for 1,406 scrimmage yards, a 3.9 yards per carry, and 5 total touchdowns.

These results have made me think the same thing I've always thought on the matter. Murray's 2014 numbers cannot be easily replaced in 2015, but they are also highly unlikely to be replaced by Murray himself. We are better off spending our money on the defensive line, retaining Dez, and making sure we have ourselves a RT. Williams, Randle, Dunbar, and a 3rd/4th round pick from a deep running back class can cover Murray's expected 2015 numbers.

 

[Cowboy_Mo88]

Yea but we all seem to forget injuries aside prior to 2014 murray wasn't a featured back and how many touches does he have in his career up to this point? Not a lot as we were prominently a passing team and how many of us here wanted us to run the ball? Almost everyone so in reference to this I say it really is a non issue as he dosnt have the wear and tear on his body so far as any normal hb would .

 

[Nation]

Yea but we all seem to forget injuries aside prior to 2014 murray wasn't a featured back and how many touches does he have in his career up to this point? Not a lot as we were prominently a passing team and how many of us here wanted us to run the ball? Almost everyone so in reference to this I say it really is a non issue as he dosnt have the wear and tear on his body so far as any normal hb would .

He wasn't a feature back because he got hurt every year

 

[Cowboy_Mo88]

That's my point and so how can the drop off be so big if he only in his career up to this year carried ball 20 times or more how many times like what 13? So the body doesn't have the toll of ap or other backs and that is why you keep him at a decent price.

 

[Nightman]

In considering whether or not to sign DeMarco Murray The Cowboys will be faced with a ton of production to replace should they move on from the running back. Murray's 2014 campaign was a 449 touch season with 2,261 yards from scrimmage, 4.7 Yards Per Carry, and 13 Total TDs. However, Dallas must make that Yes/No value decision based on what Murray is likely to bring the team in 2015, not based on what he did in 2014.

I took a look at all 400+ touch seasons for running backs since 2003 and the dropoff in the following season is pretty dramatic as the chart below details. Murray has earned the right for his name to be mentioned among the great backs on this list, but even these great backs had their issues after that kind of workload. And while it is easy to throw out a "Yeah, But" when it comes to the capability of the Cowboys offensive line keep in mind that no great running back sees 400 touches without a great offensive line of their own, and the dropoffs after a major workload were universal.

Projecting Murray's numbers using these past results would mean the following:

If we project Murray's 2015 based on the average dropoff, we would expect his 2015 to consist of 346 touches, for 1,441 scrimmage yards, a 3.9 yards per carry, and 5.5 total touchdowns.

If we project Murray's 2015 based on the median dropoff, we would expect his 2015 to consist of 343 touches, for 1,406 scrimmage yards, a 3.9 yards per carry, and 5 total touchdowns.

These results have made me think the same thing I've always thought on the matter. Murray's 2014 numbers cannot be easily replaced in 2015, but they are also highly unlikely to be replaced by Murray himself. We are better off spending our money on the defensive line, retaining Dez, and making sure we have ourselves a RT. Williams, Randle, Dunbar, and a 3rd/4th round pick from a deep running back class can cover Murray's expected 2015 numbers.

In 1994 Emmitt had 450 touches for 2000 yds and 25 TDs at age 25
He came back in 1995 and had 520 touches for 2500 yds and 31 TDs and a Super Bowl

How do we know we've seen Murray's best year yet?

 

[RoboQB]

You anti-Murray guys are killing me... we don't need Murray to repeat "numbers"... we need our opponents to
respect what we are capable of in the run game.... no way a rookie and two part time players command that respect...
and by the way, if Murray stays and averages 3.9 ypc or less, as you say, I'll eat my hat.

 

[TwoDeep3]

Seems to me several of the running backs had over 1500 yards, which is enough.

 

[jrumann59]

Seems to me several of the running backs had over 1500 yards, which is enough.

That is total yards. The closest example would be Larry Johnson who had 500 touches going into his heavy year. The stats show that LJ slowed down even in his 457 touch season, rushing he need 80 more carries to surpass his previous season's total and his YPC dropped almost full yard is his huge workload season from the year before. Stats show that Emmitt Smith and Tiki Barber are more exceptions than the rule.

 

[waving monkey]

It is a fairly relevant issue.
Murray is good RB but he was rode hard and it wouldn't be prudent to overlook the issue.
Murray is a ggod story and good guy who will require some real dollars
This RB class looks so good.

 

[TwoDeep3]

I wonder how many people in this thread who find this something to worry about in regard to Murray also think AP is a good idea?

I am not concerned about Murray dropping off. He can post between 1400 and 1500 and that is enough.

Hand wringing over Murray ignores who the guy is and his character.

 

[jrumann59]

I wonder how many people in this thread who find this something to worry about in regard to Murray also think AP is a good idea?

I am not concerned about Murray dropping off. He can post between 1400 and 1500 and that is enough.

Hand wringing over Murray ignores who the guy is and his character.

I really do not care one way or the other, Murray or AP, the issue with murray is, he is injury prone he has been injured every year he has been in the league, if last year was not a contract year I do not believe he would have played with a broken hand.

 

[TwoDeep3]

I really do not care one way or the other, Murray or AP, the issue with murray is, he is injury prone he has been injured every year he has been in the league, if last year was not a contract year I do not believe he would have played with a broken hand.

Peterson has been in the league twice as long as Murray. He has substantially more carries than Murray. He has completed three out of eight years playing a fill season.

Injury prone is something made up. There is no such thing. Fans talk about injury prone and being brittle. Mediots talk about this.

 

[jrumann59]

Peterson has been in the league twice as long as Murray. He has substantially more carries than Murray. He has completed three out of eight years playing a fill season.

Injury prone is something made up. There is no such thing. Fans talk about injury prone and being brittle. Mediots talk about this.

What would you call murray, injury coincidental. Yes AP has only played 3 full seasons out of 7 the eight he was suspended/comm list. Personally I could care less if either are on the team or not both come with issues. Denying that the term injury prone is real and is "made" up by the media is besides the fact, murray has not gone a full season without something, and he most likely would not have made it through the season last year if it was not a contract year. If murray isn't injury prone I guess sean lee is not injury prone also. All things being equal AP i would take a chance on AP at 2 million a year for 2-3 years than murray at 5-6 million 4-5 years.

 

[TwoDeep3]

What would you call murray, injury coincidental. Yes AP has only played 3 full seasons out of 7 the eight he was suspended/comm list. Personally I could care less if either are on the team or not both come with issues. Denying that the term injury prone is real and is "made" up by the media is besides the fact, murray has not gone a full season without something, and he most likely would not have made it through the season last year if it was not a contract year. If murray isn't injury prone I guess sean lee is not injury prone also. All things being equal AP i would take a chance on AP at 2 million a year for 2-3 years than murray at 5-6 million 4-5 years.

I would not call him anything. A made up term by the press does not make it real. Your suggesting it is beside the fact then negates your comments in your first response to me as attested to the quote below.

I really do not care one way or the other, Murray or AP, the issue with murray is, he is injury prone he has been injured every year he has been in the league, if last year was not a contract year I do not believe he would have played with a broken hand.

Your suggestion on what he would or would not do had this not been a contract year ignores the team was still in the hunt to seal a spot in the play-offs and win the East. So while you make suppositions on what he would do in your mind, his character suggests what he would have done to make the play-offs is quite the opposite.

No, Sean Lee is not injury prone. He has been injured, but him having a propensity to injury cannot be proven by his history. Especially when one year he had someone step on his foot which cost him games.

So after you tell me you don't care about Murray or AP, you then offer a set of circumstances which you assign the salary that is ridiculous.

You and me and all the people on this site have nothing to do with the salary of the players.

So from reading your posts I gather you do believe in the term injury prone, you would take AP over Murray, if you can get him to play for next to nothing.

I can't deal in anything but what I szee. And that is a player who is a leader, a play maker, and a touch S.O.B. that has chemistry with this team. All the other things you offer have meaning to you, but don't dwell in the house of fact.

 

[RoboQB]

Funny how Adrian Peterson is not on this beautifully put together chart...rushing yards alone in 2008 was 1760, "only" 1383 in 2009...
2097 in 2012 and a "drastic" drop to 1266 in 2013........ stats are just numbers that can be used to manipulate either side of an argument.

And you couldn't even put Emmitt on this chart because he would blow it up!.... I love the term "exception to the rule"...
since everyone is clairvoyant in the anti-Murray camp... I'm guessing this is pre-determined...what happens if he puts up 2 or 3 Pro Bowl
years together? Does that make him an exception to the rule as well? Yes, it does.... but nobody knows that ahead of time.

But lets look ahead to the anti-Murray future...... when its 3rd or 4th and goal in a tight game... we have our big stud rookie 1st rd pick
who hasn't yet hit the rookie wall with an injury, or the great Ryan Williams or (gasp!) Joseph Randle.... and they get stuffed a yard behind the LOS.

All of the sudden we are back to 50 passes a game because we can't trust our RBs when it counts.... then Romo gets crushed on a blitz that
wasn't picked up by (insert your RB choice here) and is out for a few games... That's 3+ games with you-know-who at QB... all the while our
defense is on the field for 35-40 minutes a game because we are going 3 and out half the time, or worse.

Then suddenly our 2014 season looks like a flash in the pan and we fade back to mediocrity.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

In 1994 Emmitt had 450 touches for 2000 yds and 25 TDs at age 25
He came back in 1995 and had 520 touches for 2500 yds and 31 TDs and a Super Bowl

How do we know we've seen Murray's best year yet?

Yes. Let's compare Murray to one of the greatest RBs of all time. That's the kind of production we should count on.

 

[Sarge]

He wasn't a feature back because he got hurt every year

Funny how people don't talk about this as much as they do. It's a factor.

 

[Hoofbite]

Be more interested in how they did in the seasons that followed, not just the one year. I would hope nobody wants to sign Murray because of how they think he might do next year alone.

Another thing I see is that some players had previously hit 400 touches but the time span doesn't go back far enough.

LT and Edge had 400 touch seasons before the listed season. So did Curtis Martin and Ricky Williams.

Might be better to look at average numbers following the first 400 touch season.

You have some players who had 2, 3, or 4 such seasons but the last season in which they had 400 touches fit into the time frame.

 

[Longboysfan]

You anti-Murray guys are killing me... we don't need Murray to repeat "numbers"... we need our opponents to
respect what we are capable of in the run game.... no way a rookie and two part time players command that respect...
and by the way, if Murray stays and averages 3.9 ypc or less, as you say, I'll eat my hat.

Ahhhh... Just so we know in advance. Do you take sweet or spicy barbecue sauce with it.
Just so we cover all bases.

 

[Nation]

These statistics are meant to make a fan of a player say "Yeah but no way this would happen to _____"

You don't get on the list without being great to begin with so a fan of a player is not going to buy into regression being a certainty. But the list is full of nothing but great players, and regression was a certainty for all of them.