Dropoff after 400 Touch Season (It's a Big One)

[Crown Royal]

That is why it's silly to try and predict what will Murray will do based on what others haven't done and completely ignoring the instances where the RB improved or nearly matched his previous best.

The best comparison I see is Ladainian Tomlinson, who was still young and part of a capable offense. And honestly, if I can get from Murray between 2014 -2018 what they got out of Tomlinson between 2003-2006....I think I'd be OK with it lol.

 

[Nation]

You know what I would like to see added to these statistics?

• Age of player for each data point ( you mean 32 year old Curtis Martin will likely drop off from 31 year old Curtis Martin)?
• Passing ability of each team for each data point (it isn't hard to stop Jamal Lewis when Kyle Boller is the QB, or Stephen Jackson when an old injured Mark Bulger is your passer)
• The offensive line turnover year over year (Not listed, but do you think it's an accident that Shaun Alexander started declining around the time Steve Hutchinson left the team? For that matter their entire offense did)?
• Other considerations (Larry Johnson seems to be the darling example of these stats, but consider that he was part of a terrible 2007 squad that fielded Damon Huard as a QB, he got injured, and they had zero offensive capability. The next season his YPC was actually up but with little opportunity, and he got suspended)

Not many of the RBs on this list match Murray's situation. The RBs were either older, were part of otherwise putrid or declining offenses with OL turnover or had personal issues. The ONLY thing you can point at Murray and say that he would be liable to repeat is the injury portion. He is young, part of a very strong offense overall with a great QB and WR corps, and very little OL turnover. I love statistics as much as anyone in the world, but I really feel like a lot of information is ignored when I see this put up.

I didn't think age was a determining factor given that most on the list were Murray's age or younger at the time of their 400 touch season, and Tiki Barber being one of the oldest had one of the smallest dropoffs.

The closest comparison to Murray in terms of age, passing ability on his team, zero offensive line turnover, and no major other consideration, is the 2003 season of Ahman Green. Green saw a decline in touches of 106, Yards from Scrimmage of 812, and a large drop in Yards Per Carry of 0.8. His total touchdowns dropped from 20 to 8.

 

[Crown Royal]

I didn't think age was a determining factor given that most on the list were Murray's age or younger at the time of their 400 touch season, and Tiki Barber being one of the oldest had one of the smallest dropoffs.

The closest comparison to Murray in terms of age, passing ability on his team, zero offensive line turnover, and no major other consideration, is the 2003 season of Ahman Green. Green saw a decline in touches of 106, Yards from Scrimmage of 812, and a large drop in Yards Per Carry of 0.8. His total touchdowns dropped from 20 to 8.

Very good points all around.