Dropoff after 400 Touch Season (It's a Big One)

[Phoenix]

Yea but

I see what you did there

 

[Nation]

Now allow me to make this clear - again, since I have stated this over and over.

Money is not an issue for me. Being a play maker is. Murray is not Emmitt, but the closest thing since Emmitt. All the hand wringing about money ignores a fact of life which is staring all of you wannabe GM's in the face.

Romo has a small window and it's get it now or never with that player. So you put the best options around him and push all in. You don't monkey with success in hope of saving a dime, or that magically you will find a viable alternative later.

The time is now, not three years from now.

Right but unfortunately as us "wannabe GM's" know the salary cap does exist, which means you have to make a decision to how you invest in the defense, right tackle, retaining Dez, and running back. Murray did not save our defense from being picked apart in the first half of the Detroit playoff game and the second half of the Green Bay playoff game. It isn't about saving money to replace Murray with a draft pick or cheaper option. It is whether the money saved at that position can be allocated to finding defensive linemen who can disrupt Aaron Rodgers in a playoff game. Hell just finding someone who could get close enough to cough on the guy would have been an improvement in the fourth quarter of that game.

 

[jrumann59]

Now unless you work for Madame Cleo, or Dionne Warwick's psychic hotline, I'd suggest you have no real idea what tomorrow brings for either Murray or Lee. None of the synonyms/adjectives you suggested from the dictionary/thesaurus are cast in stone. Prone has an arbitrary nature to its meaning. I think likely is one of the better exemplars of this. Because even using its definition, there is an outcome which is included in defining likely - the word you offered as support - indicating injury will not happen or the definition would be concrete and another word used. Likely is a bit stronger than perhaps, but has the either or component which makes the outcome questionable.

Prone -

Example 1 - Fans on an NFL football message boards are prone to exaggerate maladies to support their notions of changing success into the unknown in hopes of finding something better.

Example 2 - The grass is always greener.

Just as a side note - I write for a living. So words are tools in my tool box. I also do not believe in luck. it too is an arbitrary and none quantifiable value assigned to things people cannot explain.

Well you split hairs all you want, When you are more surprised a player finishes a season without a significant injury and time lost is a pretty serious con against that player. Look at the boards here people already are thinking lee will be lucky to get half a season due to the likelihood he will get hurt AGAIN. Banking on someone to stay healthy when the precedence shows the inverse is dumb business at this point in Murray's career last season was an outlier since. Like I said both Murray and AP have their warts and if I had to choose one with a gun to my head I would go AP if I had to make a choice with nothing on the line I would choose neither.

 

[TwoDeep3]

Right but unfortunately as us "wannabe GM's" know the salary cap does exist, which means you have to make a decision to how you invest in the defense, right tackle, retaining Dez, and running back. Murray did not save our defense from being picked apart in the first half of the Detroit playoff game and the second half of the Green Bay playoff game. It isn't about saving money to replace Murray with a draft pick or cheaper option. It is whether the money saved at that position can be allocated to finding defensive linemen who can disrupt Aaron Rodgers in a playoff game. Hell just finding someone who could get close enough to cough on the guy would have been an improvement in the fourth quarter of that game.

I acknowledge the salary cap exists.

I also understand the best option in the last 18 years is here and now, and reworking whom you must to have a cohesive offense and fit in these defensive players coveted is maintaining what we all witnessed in 2014. There are no guarantees, but the plug and play mentality of some about the offense ignores special players. Murray is special.

 

[TwoDeep3]

Well you split hairs all you want, When you are more surprised a player finishes a season without a significant injury and time lost is a pretty serious con against that player. Look at the boards here people already are thinking lee will be lucky to get half a season due to the likelihood he will get hurt AGAIN. Banking on someone to stay healthy when the precedence shows the inverse is dumb business at this point in Murray's career last season was an outlier since. Like I said both Murray and AP have their warts and if I had to choose one with a gun to my head I would go AP if I had to make a choice with nothing on the line I would choose neither.

Some of these same people thought, and still maintain Quincy Carter was a pro quarterback and only needed a team surrounding him.

 

[jrumann59]

Some of these same people thought, and still maintain Quincy Carter was a pro quarterback and only needed a team surrounding him.

He was a pro QB maybe not a good one maybe not a smart one but he was a professional QB.

 

[Dave_in-NC]

He was a pro QB maybe not a good one maybe not a smart one but he was a professional QB.

That might be a bit of a stretch lol. I think you can eliminate the words maybe.

 

[jrumann59]

That might be a bit of a stretch lol. I think you can eliminate the words maybe.

He was paid to play Qb so that makes him a pro. Pretty straight and simple. I know the "maybe" qualifiers were not needed but i know we have a few QC fans floating about.

 

[Verdict]

Yea but we all seem to forget injuries aside prior to 2014 murray wasn't a featured back and how many touches does he have in his career up to this point? Not a lot as we were prominently a passing team and how many of us here wanted us to run the ball? Almost everyone so in reference to this I say it really is a non issue as he dosnt have the wear and tear on his body so far as any normal hb would .

Do you think that a team keying on them and making someone else beating them could possibly have some bearing on that? I do. Injury to the player is obviously a consideration as well. Do you really believe that Murray is a greater injury risk AFTER the season because he carried the ball so many times his year? I doubt that. If he is healthy now, it is irrelevant how many times he carried the ball last year. So essentially, the team has to do its due diligence and then decide if it wants to spend what it will take to sign him, or not. I think Murray is likely to be the leagues leading rusher again if he runs behind this line. What is that worth? I think Peterson, or shady McCoy would also be a league leading rusher behind this line. Best mode? Maybe but he is getting up there in age. The problem with McCoy is that he is a lot like McFadden, a quick hitter but I'm not sure he would survive the season running the ball in the manner that we run it.

 

[Nightman]

Yes. Let's compare Murray to one of the greatest RBs of all time. That's the kind of production we should count on.

Did Emmitt ever get 1800 yds? The answer is no but he had a terrible OL to work with.

 

[jrumann59]

Did Emmitt ever get 1800 yds? The answer is no but he had a terrible OL to work with.

To be fair Emmitt played in a run first era, and dallas ran a lot. the NFL now it is stop the pass to keep the games close not stop the run.

 

[Doomsday101]

To be fair Emmitt played in a run first era, and dallas ran a lot. the NFL now it is stop the pass to keep the games close not stop the run.

people say that yet some teams are running teams. Dallas went from being the 31st ranked team in rushing attempts with 336 and 586 passes to being the 2nd most rushing in the NFL in 2014 with 508 rushes while only throwing it 476 and the result was the best season we have had in a long time.

 

[Dave_in-NC]

To be fair Emmitt played in a run first era, and dallas ran a lot. the NFL now it is stop the pass to keep the games close not stop the run.

I'm pretty sure we have changed that in Dallas

 

[Wood]

LT 2006 campaign was just stupid good.

 

[Redball Express]

In considering whether or not to sign DeMarco Murray The Cowboys will be faced with a ton of production to replace should they move on from the running back. Murray's 2014 campaign was a 449 touch season with 2,261 yards from scrimmage, 4.7 Yards Per Carry, and 13 Total TDs. However, Dallas must make that Yes/No value decision based on what Murray is likely to bring the team in 2015, not based on what he did in 2014.

I took a look at all 400+ touch seasons for running backs since 2003 and the dropoff in the following season is pretty dramatic as the chart below details. Murray has earned the right for his name to be mentioned among the great backs on this list, but even these great backs had their issues after that kind of workload. And while it is easy to throw out a "Yeah, But" when it comes to the capability of the Cowboys offensive line keep in mind that no great running back sees 400 touches without a great offensive line of their own, and the dropoffs after a major workload were universal.

Projecting Murray's numbers using these past results would mean the following:

If we project Murray's 2015 based on the average dropoff, we would expect his 2015 to consist of 346 touches, for 1,441 scrimmage yards, a 3.9 yards per carry, and 5.5 total touchdowns.

If we project Murray's 2015 based on the median dropoff, we would expect his 2015 to consist of 343 touches, for 1,406 scrimmage yards, a 3.9 yards per carry, and 5 total touchdowns.

These results have made me think the same thing I've always thought on the matter. Murray's 2014 numbers cannot be easily replaced in 2015, but they are also highly unlikely to be replaced by Murray himself. We are better off spending our money on the defensive line, retaining Dez, and making sure we have ourselves a RT. Williams, Randle, Dunbar, and a 3rd/4th round pick from a deep running back class can cover Murray's expected 2015 numbers.

I'm in total agreement here.

You can not pay for future performance..it must be earned.

Which is why a good part of any big payout must be incentive earned.

This goes for Dez as well as Murray.

Pay them $10-15 mil..each..

but let it be based on the numbers they reach on the field.

Reward them with a Kings Ransom...

but only if they reach certain levels of performance spelled out in their contracts.

We can not afford to do as in the past..

paying up front for retroactive performances and then watching while they go down with injuries and lack of effectiveness.

I love both of these guys and they are certainly a direct product of Romo and the OL we have established.

Remove these factors if they leave..

and their performances will be no where near what they have been.

Stay at a reasonable deal..

and they get to continue building their careers here.

To me..it's a simple call.

The business of football demands moving on from high risk deals if you want to continue to advance the team.

We have never learned this axiom in years past.

It's time to do it.

Hopefully under Garrett..this fundamental will get traction.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

I'm in total agreement here.

You can not pay for future performance..it must be earned.

Which is why a good part of any big payout must be incentive earned.

This goes for Dez as well as Murray.

Pay them $10-15 mil..each..

To commit even $10 mil per season to Murray would be goofy.

 

[Redball Express]

To commit even $10 mil per season to Murray would be goofy.

I'm with you but I think Jerrah is going to find a way to keep Murray and I think it's going to be some kind of big payout to do it.

That's just what he does..find a way.

I wish he listens to his son Stephen and keeps the checkbook in the drawer.

But Jerrah doesn't do that.

Romo is a prime example.

What's going to really hurt is 2-3 years from now when Frederick and Martin end their current deals and want to line up the Brink's truck to their front door with new deals like Smith's after all this praise has been heaped on them for being the salvation of the franchise.

Yikes.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

I'm with you but I think Jerrah is going to find a way to keep Murray and I think it's going to be some kind of big payout to do it.

That's just what he does..find a way.

I wish he listens to his son Stephen and keeps the checkbook in the drawer.

But Jerrah doesn't do that.

Romo is a prime example.

Romo's contract extension is now a couple years old... I think the current mindset of the team is different. Case in point the Ware release of last offseason. "Old" Jerry wouldn't have released him.

 

[Crown Royal]

You know what I would like to see added to these statistics?

• Age of player for each data point ( you mean 32 year old Curtis Martin will likely drop off from 31 year old Curtis Martin)?
• Passing ability of each team for each data point (it isn't hard to stop Jamal Lewis when Kyle Boller is the QB, or Stephen Jackson when an old injured Mark Bulger is your passer)
• The offensive line turnover year over year (Not listed, but do you think it's an accident that Shaun Alexander started declining around the time Steve Hutchinson left the team? For that matter their entire offense did)?
• Other considerations (Larry Johnson seems to be the darling example of these stats, but consider that he was part of a terrible 2007 squad that fielded Damon Huard as a QB, he got injured, and they had zero offensive capability. The next season his YPC was actually up but with little opportunity, and he got suspended)

Not many of the RBs on this list match Murray's situation. The RBs were either older, were part of otherwise putrid or declining offenses with OL turnover or had personal issues. The ONLY thing you can point at Murray and say that he would be liable to repeat is the injury portion. He is young, part of a very strong offense overall with a great QB and WR corps, and very little OL turnover. I love statistics as much as anyone in the world, but I really feel like a lot of information is ignored when I see this put up.

 

[Nightman]

You know what I would like to see added to these statistics?

• Age of player for each data point ( you mean 32 year old Curtis Martin will likely drop off from 31 year old Curtis Martin)?
• Passing ability of each team for each data point (it isn't hard to stop Jamal Lewis when Kyle Boller is the QB, or Stephen Jackson when an old injured Mark Bulger is your passer)
• The offensive line turnover year over year (Not listed, but do you think it's an accident that Shaun Alexander started declining around the time Steve Hutchinson left the team? For that matter their entire offense did)?
• Other considerations (Larry Johnson seems to be the darling example of these stats, but consider that he was part of a terrible 2007 squad that fielded Damon Huard as a QB, he got injured, and they had zero offensive capability. The next season his YPC was actually up but with little opportunity, and he got suspended)

Not many of the RBs on this list match Murray's situation. The RBs were either older, were part of otherwise putrid or declining offenses with OL turnover or had personal issues. The ONLY thing you can point at Murray and say that he would be liable to repeat is the injury portion. He is young, part of a very strong offense overall with a great QB and WR corps, and very little OL turnover. I love statistics as much as anyone in the world, but I really feel like a lot of information is ignored when I see this put up.

That is why it's silly to try and predict what will Murray will do based on what others haven't done and completely ignoring the instances where the RB improved or nearly matched his previous best.