Early Predictions for 2006

[Gamebreaker]

Among other things, the way the Skins have had 2 years now to address their biggest problem, their offensive line (specifically, the total lack of depth on the OL)... the Gibbs I remember from the first time around had his Hogs, one of the best offensive lines in the game at the time... that was a team that could suffer an injury to a starter, and plug in somebody almost as good... that Gibbs, and that Bugel, would have never been satisfied with the depth they have now...

So basically, you have nothing to base that assertion on. Gibbs drafted two lineman last year to address the OL. One is still a work in progress, the other had a season ending injury. Gibbs has made numerous signings since he took over for the OL.

Futhermore, the Hogs weren't exactly highly regarded before Gibbs and Bugel got ahold of them. Joe Jacoby went undrafted, Jeff Bostic was cut as a long snapper from the Eagles, George Starke was old as dirt, Russ Grimm and Mark May were the only players drafted by Gibbs. And only May was seen as a big prospect coming out of college. When Raleigh Mckenzie came in, he was drafted in the 11th round. You may remember how good the Hogs were, but you don't remember how they were obtained.

To say the Commanders haven't addressed the OL simply because they haven't gone out and signed big name lineman would fly in the face of what made Gibbs successful in the past. You never know, Bugel could coach Walter into being a good player. He did it for Dockery, who had his best season last year. Bostic was a long snapper, and he turned him into a Pro Bowl lineman. Do your history.

 

[Gamebreaker]

Uhhh, it's not OUR job to make YOUR arguments for you... if you have stats that counter the ones that we bring to the table, bring 'em on... show us the numbers...

I would never enter a discussion where I knew I was wrong, unlike some people around here. I would bring both sides of the argument to the table and explain why the positives outweigh negatives and I am right. If you can't do that, you obviously don't have much faith in your stance or you're ability to debate it.

 

[Gamebreaker]

If you're here to talk football, you're not a troll... if you're slinging sarcastic insults at the Boys and their fans, if you're just posting to provoke a reaction, then you're a troll...

So far, I don't really see you as a troll, but of course only you know what's in your heart...

And most of those Skins "trolls" NEVER bring any statistical arguments to back up their trollish opinions... you have at least tried to support your arguments with FACTS...

Thank you. The 'troll' statements annoy me because a number of members here have pulled it out when they've lost the debate and have nothing left to say. I'm glad someone here is trying to be objective in this thread.

 

[Gamebreaker]

Your guy does his job based on how well the others in front of him play. If your DL fails to keep the OL off of him, undoubtedly he will struggle.

Ware takes on OL nearly every play.

Bottom Line:

Ware is the superior player based on how he changes the game. Sure they are two different players. But right now, who would you rather have? A player that requires double teams and can get to the QB.....or a MLB that needs a good DL to be effective?

I'm not saying Marshall is a bad player. He wouldn't fit on our defense, but he's very solid....and solid only.

I have nothing else to say on this. Can we just agree to disagree, because neither of us will ever see both players switch roles and see how well one would do the other anyway.

 

[Gamebreaker]

Gamebreaker, you're quite level headed and reasonable... props for your ability to make a good argument, while at the same time being able to acknowledge when one of your antagonists makdes a good point too...

Thanks. Props from a Boyz fan, who knew? :laugh2:

 

[jrumann59]

You should really do your research and stop making ridiculous statements. Please prove how Carter played better in college than Jason Campbell.

Campbell's career college numbers were 496-779, a 63% completion percentage, for 6,512 yards, 40 touchdowns and 21 interceptions. I guess you'll be finding numbers to beat those, right?

Here is Q-Balls stats from 3 years of College

------G/GS--Att--Cmp--Pct.--Yds---INT--TD
1998-11/11--290--176-.607--2484----9---12
1999-11/11--380--216-.568--2713----6---17
2000-07/07--183---91-.497--1250---10----6
Total 29/29--853--483-.566--6447---25---35

Q-Ball Avg stat per game
---------------29--17-.586--222-----.8---1.2
Here are J. Campbells

------G/GS--Att--Cmp--Pct.--Yds---INT--TD
2001-09/09--142--89--.627--1117-----4---4
2002-13/13--149--94--.631--1215-----5--11
2003-13/13--293-181--.618--2267-----8--10
2004-13/13--270-188--.696--2700-----7--20
Total 48/48--854-552--.646--7299----24--45

J. Campbell avg per game
--------------18--12--.666---150----.5---1

To me they look very similar though it is hard to tell because Q-Ball was on worse teams. Hopefully J Campbell isn't nearly the headcase Q-Ball was.

 

[jrumann59]

After looking at my numbers we can do either take J Campbells average and see what they would be over 29 games or Q_ball's over 48. Lets see we will do both.

Q-Ball first over 48 games like J Campbell

his line would read:

-Att----Comp---PCT----Yds----TD--INT
1421----816---.574---10,656---57--38

Now J Campbell over 29 games
-Att----Comp---PCT----Yds----TD--INT
522-----348---.666---4350----29--15

Using this method and going by their career averages Q-Ball would have destroyed J Campbell's nubers over 4 years and 48 games and beat his numbers if J-Campbell only played 29 games like Q-Ball did. I know it isn't fair but Q-Ball out performed Jason in all categoies except INT, Completion %. So I would say they are very comparable QB's in college even though Q-Ball accomplished his stas after throwing for the cubs.

 

[silverbear]

It would be nice if I wasn't stereotyped and generalized with every Skins fan you encountered last season.

That wasn't intended to assign blame to you personally, that was the generic "you"... it was a comment on the inconsistent arguments you get from a lot of Skins fans, arguments that flip-flop with remarkable frequency...

But even so, I don't care for it when I'm stereotyped either, so I'll try to find another way to phrase that argument in the future...

On regards to continuity, we're returning 18 out of 22 starters and all of the core players who were instrumental in our success last season will still be there. Where is the lack of continuity?

Actually, I personally think that the "continuity" concept is overrated in the NFL... every year, teams move players on and off their roster, in fact the norm is about a 20-25 percent turnover...

There is no such thing as 'buying a championship', unless Snyder goes to the league and offers a large amount for a Lombardi Trophy. Which Snyder hasn't done, which means he's done nothing different from any other team in this league.

You started out with a good point, then you carried it too far... Snyder hasn't done anything different from any other team in the league?? You know another team that will have one draft pick in the first four rounds of this draft?? Or a team that has already traded away a pick in the next draft during the course of the preseason...

Of course Danny Boy is doing things differently, he's basically scrapping the draft as a means of improving the team... the Skins drafted 4 players in 2004, 2 of whom have actually contributed to the team at this point... they drafted 6 last year, 1 of whom contributed, 1 of whom they hope will be their QB of the future... so, in 2 years of drafting, they've added 3 contributors, 1 who might well be a future contributor... and though this is a little off the argument, nobody they've drafted after the 2nd round has made much of a contribution to date... given that they only have a 2nd round pick in this year's draft, it's quite likely that they're not gonna get much help in this draft with an assortment of 5th through 7th round picks...

With the salary cap, you NEED to use the draft to build a long-term winner... Danny Boy doesn't do that... I'd say that's doing things differently...

BTW, I don't refer to Snyder that way to piss you off, he's just the one thing about the Skins that I DO loathe, I think he's a miserable excuse for a human being, and I can't bring myself to give him any respect... so 90 per cent of the time, he's Danny Boy to me...

 

[silverbear]

That is your opinion, not a fact. No one knows why Goodwin wasn't signed, and unless you were at Commander Park when he made his visit, I'd expect you not to assume the reason and only deal with facts.

Oh, I think making assumptions in this situation is perfectly reasonable... the Skins' track record is, when they bring a guy in for a visit, he almost always signs... that Goodwin didn't suggests only a few possible scenarios:

1) They gave him a physical while he was there, and a red flag showed up... if that was the case here, the guy's made visits elsewhere since dropping by Commanders Park, and if he were damaged goods, we would likely have heard about it...

2) Goodwin came in and made a jerk of himself... that has happened before, but if it was the case here, you can bet we would have read about it in the Post or the Times... they reported on his signing, of course they would have wanted to report on why the Skins chose to pass on him...

3) Goodwin took a look around, and decided he didn't like what he saw... given that he needs a job, and Danny Boy pays REAL good, and given that there was a role for him on the team, what with the utter lack of quality depth, and given that Gibbs and Bugel are known to be players' coaches, does that make any sense to you??

4) Goodwin wanted too much money... tending to support that theory are the reports that the Skins have about 4.5 mil in cap room left, and are running out of contracts to renegotiate, combined with reports that Gibbs wants to find a starting-caliber OLB and another decent DB (wouldn't have thought there was a pressing need at OLB, but I do recognize the need for more depth at LB)...

So, I considered all those possibilities, along with the obvious fact that Goodwin was their first choice... then I looked at the two guys who they brought in instead, guys who aren't anywhere NEAR as good as Goodwin, and I jumped to the "assumption" that cap constraints kept them from pulling this one off...

An assumption, yes, but one rooted in logical analysis... it might annoy you, but I will from time to time make such assumptions... but I will if called upon defend the thought processes that led to those assumptions, as I have here...

 

[silverbear]

So basically, you have nothing to base that assertion on. Gibbs drafted two lineman last year to address the OL. One is still a work in progress, the other had a season ending injury.

Actually, the other seems to have had a CAREER ending injury, at least in Washington... Wilson doesn't seem to show up on their roster at this point... the other has played in 14 games in two seasons thus far, with no starts... worse, his playing time DECLINED in his second season...

Gibbs has made numerous signings since he took over for the OL.

Yeah, he has, but rather questionable moves for the most part... Rabach was brought in to replace Raymer... Casey is an upgrade over the guy he replaced, but he's a long way from the elite centers in the league... and he's the BEST player they've brought in...

Walter is a total joke, but I guess y'all are gonna have to find that out for yourself... Pucillo is the definition of a fringe player... he has gotten significant playing time in two different seasons, 2003 (where he started 12 times for the Bills) and last year (where he got 6 starts for the Lions)...

In 03, the Bills ranked 30th in the NFL, averaging 271.8 yards per game in total offense... in 05, the Browns ranked 27th, averaging 284.8 ypg... bad offenses seem to follow him around...

OK, obviously he wasn't the ONLY reason for those bad offenses, but it's equally clear that neither team had a very good offensive line... we also know that Pucillo last 3 years with Buffalo, a team that has struggled on offense over that time, so they either cut him, or made no effort to re-sign him when he got a restricted free agent offer... and the team that DID sign him parted company with him after just one season... this does not suggest that those teams thought very highly of him...

So bottom line, other than the single act of signing Rabach (a move I'd grade as a C move), Gibbs' response to the Skins' depth problem has been to bring in 4 bottom of the barrel guys, late round draft picks and fringe veterans (or worse)...

To say the Commanders haven't addressed the OL simply because they haven't gone out and signed big name lineman would fly in the face of what made Gibbs successful in the past. You never know, Bugel could coach Walter into being a good player.

The proof is in the performance, pal, and we all saw what happened to the Skins' offense when the first injuries struck... it wasn't pretty, and should be all the proof YOU need to convince you that their backups aren't real good... and if you're counting on Bugel to make a silk purse out the sow's ear that is Tyson Walter, well, all I can say is good luck to you...

You don't seem to like me stereotyping you with other Skins fans, but I have to note, in debate after debate after debate with Skins fans the last 2 years on the OL, I've heard "Gibbs can fix it, he can coach 'em up", or "Buges can fix it, he can coach 'em up"...

You guys seem think those two are infallible, that they can turn any stiff into a good player, and that's just laughable... I will state on the record right now that unless Gibbs can find a way to get his hands on one or two QUALITY backups before the regular season rolls around (and I don't see how he can, with his current cap situation and limited draft options), the Skins will be screwed if the injury bug bites on that OL...

It's the same prediction I made the last 2 years, and as I've endlessly noted, I was right then, too... both times, I really, really expected Gibbs to address that weakness aggressively, because I think he thinks like I think, that the secret to playing winning football is building a good, preferably dominating, offensive line... and because most every team suffers injuries in the trenches in the course of a season, that means having at least decent quality backups in place...

Combine that with a severe lack of quality depth in the secondary, and a shaky situation at quarterback (this year), and you have the 3 areas of the team that could blow up on them, and ruin their season... I know that in this age of the salary cap, all teams have weak spots, even the ones that eventually hoist the Lombardi Trophy... but these weaknesses are SO glaring, I really can't believe Gibbs hasn't done more to address them...

 

[silverbear]

I would never enter a discussion where I knew I was wrong,

I believe that... obviously, the guys who advanced those arguments didn't do their homework... which is where you get the chance to beat up on them by bringing those facts to the table...

unlike some people around here. I would bring both sides of the argument to the table and explain why the positives outweigh negatives

I'll do that too, but there aren't many like us around... like I said, rather than being annoyed by those who give you half the story, you should start smiling, thinking about how you're fixin' to embarrass the livin' bejesus out of them... LOL...

 

[silverbear]

Thank you. The 'troll' statements annoy me because a number of members here have pulled it out when they've lost the debate and have nothing left to say. I'm glad someone here is trying to be objective in this thread.

Been on these boards a looooong time, and I long ago learned that some fans of other teams are trolls, some fans are looking to talk football... to me, the key is whether or not that poster regularly engages in inflammatory, insulting behavior to provoke a reaction...

You don't... we did have one in here a few days ago, and I got in some minor trouble with one of our mods for jumpin' in his face... I have also been a troll baiter for a looooong time, LOL, but they don't want that in here...

I don't seem to see that particular troll in here any more, leading me to wonder if one of our mods didn't deal with him... I wouldn't like it if we became like extremeskins, where I could get banned for expressing any of the opinions I've debated with you in here, even if I was being honest and civil, but I do appreciate it if obvious trolls who are just here to stir the fecal matter are sent packing...

Don't worry about those who try to label you a troll, hoss, they're just conscious that they're losing their argument to you... console yourself with the knowledge that those in here who have the ability to be fair-minded don't see you that way...

 

[silverbear]

Thanks. Props from a Boyz fan, who knew? :laugh2:

You should be sad that the presence of a reasonable, fair-minded Skins fan in here is reason for comment... LOL...

I like good fans of other teams, guys I can talk football with... not too long ago, I would have said that you were the kind of guy I could have a beer or six with at a bar talkin' football, but that was before diabetes turned me into a brand-new teetotaler...

 

[silverbear]

This thread has been lousy for my sleep, but great for my post count, LOL...

 

[SkinsFan26]

That catches me by surprise, I didn't think you had a very high opinion of my debating style...

But thanks for the compliment...

Of course I respect your posting style. You take the time to form coherent thoughts and 99% of the time you speak the truth. The other 1% of the time, I'll agree to disagree with you b/c I think the Skins are the better team and you think the Boys are the better team.

 

[SkinsFan26]

Your point is not invalid, but maybe your rhetoric is bit hyperbolic, a bit over the top... think you could reconsider the word "desperate", and come up with something more accurate??

I think that Jerry gambled, for sure... but I think that he likes doing that... this is the guy who traded for Charles Haley, who went out and gave Deion an obscene contract... and though I know he burns to win, I think it's extreme to characterize this move as "desperation"... after all, he did get a really good, really productive wide receiver (who just happens to be a world-class jerk as well)... and a desperate man wouldn't have written such a smart contract, he would have just thrown the money at TO, consequences be d***ed...

True, but TO is in another league of jerk compared to CH and DS.

 

[Gamebreaker]

After looking at my numbers we can do either take J Campbells average and see what they would be over 29 games or Q_ball's over 48. Lets see we will do both.

Q-Ball first over 48 games like J Campbell

his line would read:

-Att----Comp---PCT----Yds----TD--INT
1421----816---.574---10,656---57--38

Now J Campbell over 29 games
-Att----Comp---PCT----Yds----TD--INT
522-----348---.666---4350----29--15

Using this method and going by their career averages Q-Ball would have destroyed J Campbell's nubers over 4 years and 48 games and beat his numbers if J-Campbell only played 29 games like Q-Ball did. I know it isn't fair but Q-Ball out performed Jason in all categoies except INT, Completion %. So I would say they are very comparable QB's in college even though Q-Ball accomplished his stas after throwing for the cubs.

To extrapolate Quincy's numbers over that many games, considering how inconsistent his career turned out to be is definitely not fair. It's giving Quincy an unfair advantage, and basically guessing on whether Quincy could play at a consistent rate for 19 more games. Something Quincy showed he couldn't do.

It is better, and easier, to just average out all of their games and see who's stats were better. Averaging out the games, as a whole, eliminates the problem of who played more games. Under this criteria:

Carter averaged 47 more passes a season, yet only averaged 5 more passes. Campbell averaged a completion percentage that was 10% higher. Despite averaging 47 more passes, Carter still couldn't average even 100 yards more than Campbell. Campbell also averaged more touchdowns and less interceptions. I didn't even bother adding in the rushing touchdowns Campbell provided, that Quincy didn't at all.

In no way did Carter have a better college career than Campbell. To average throwing more passes a season, and still barely average more completions and yards, and even less touchdowns and more interceptions simply shows it.

 

[Gamebreaker]

That wasn't intended to assign blame to you personally, that was the generic "you"... it was a comment on the inconsistent arguments you get from a lot of Skins fans, arguments that flip-flop with remarkable frequency...

But even so, I don't care for it when I'm stereotyped either, so I'll try to find another way to phrase that argument in the future...

That's fine with me. Just as long as you understood where I was coming from.

Actually, I personally think that the "continuity" concept is overrated in the NFL... every year, teams move players on and off their roster, in fact the norm is about a 20-25 percent turnover...

I disagree. I think continuity is a key aspect of a team's success. The more a team plays in a system and becomes comfortable with it, the higher their likelihood of being able to make plays without having to think about it. You used the Patriots and Steelers as an example of clubs to model your team after, but the main reason drafting well helped these teams is the amount of time those drafted players spent in that particular system. It's invaluable. I don't feel the 'lack of continuity' argument applies the Commanders because if you look at their core players, all of them are going into their third year in this system or more.

You started out with a good point, then you carried it too far... Snyder hasn't done anything different from any other team in the league?? You know another team that will have one draft pick in the first four rounds of this draft?? Or a team that has already traded away a pick in the next draft during the course of the preseason...

This is something that Gibbs and co. were known for in his first stint as head coach. The draft had more rounds back then, but Gibbs was known for taking players who failed on other teams or rookie free agents and turning them into solid players. As far as signing players, he's overpaid for a couple of guys. This is true, yet he hasn't cheated the system the way the Niners got caught doing in the past.

With the salary cap, you NEED to use the draft to build a long-term winner... Danny Boy doesn't do that... I'd say that's doing things differently...

This is the way Gibbs has wanted things done. There is a high number of starters or reserves that were either 5th-7th round picks or undrafted, especially on the defense. Now I could definitely see your point more if they were unable to get good production out of these lower round picks, but they have. It's also a given, because Gibbs has a history of turning lower round picks/undrafted free agents into productive players. So he can afford to give up higher round draft picks to acquire experienced players. It all balances out. Is this different from the rest of the league? Definitely. Is it buying a championship? Absolutely not.

BTW, I don't refer to Snyder that way to piss you off, he's just the one thing about the Skins that I DO loathe, I think he's a miserable excuse for a human being, and I can't bring myself to give him any respect... so 90 per cent of the time, he's Danny Boy to me...

As a person, I can't stand Snyder. I've met many people who worked in the organization before he took over and they all have the same opinion of him. I know he isn't a saint. Yet I have to admire his willingness to do whatever it takes for his team to succeed. He does whatever Gibbs wants. Whoever Gibbs wants to sign, Snyder's checkbook is ensures that player becomes a Commander.

 

[Gamebreaker]

Oh, I think making assumptions in this situation is perfectly reasonable... the Skins' track record is, when they bring a guy in for a visit, he almost always signs... that Goodwin didn't suggests only a few possible scenarios:

1) They gave him a physical while he was there, and a red flag showed up... if that was the case here, the guy's made visits elsewhere since dropping by Commanders Park, and if he were damaged goods, we would likely have heard about it...

2) Goodwin came in and made a jerk of himself... that has happened before, but if it was the case here, you can bet we would have read about it in the Post or the Times... they reported on his signing, of course they would have wanted to report on why the Skins chose to pass on him...

3) Goodwin took a look around, and decided he didn't like what he saw... given that he needs a job, and Danny Boy pays REAL good, and given that there was a role for him on the team, what with the utter lack of quality depth, and given that Gibbs and Bugel are known to be players' coaches, does that make any sense to you??

4) Goodwin wanted too much money... tending to support that theory are the reports that the Skins have about 4.5 mil in cap room left, and are running out of contracts to renegotiate, combined with reports that Gibbs wants to find a starting-caliber OLB and another decent DB (wouldn't have thought there was a pressing need at OLB, but I do recognize the need for more depth at LB)...

So, I considered all those possibilities, along with the obvious fact that Goodwin was their first choice... then I looked at the two guys who they brought in instead, guys who aren't anywhere NEAR as good as Goodwin, and I jumped to the "assumption" that cap constraints kept them from pulling this one off...

An assumption, yes, but one rooted in logical analysis... it might annoy you, but I will from time to time make such assumptions... but I will if called upon defend the thought processes that led to those assumptions, as I have here...

Good post. I don't disagree with anything you wrote. Just that I have a habit of waiting until the official word is out instead of drawing my own conclusions without knowing it as a fact. Believe me, I've made the same assumptions about Goodwin leaving Commander Park without signing a contract.

 

[silverbear]

That's fine with me. Just as long as you understood where I was coming from.

Like I said, I've made the same complaint before, so yeah, I know where you're coming from...

This is something that Gibbs and co. were known for in his first stint as head coach. The draft had more rounds back then, but Gibbs was known for taking players who failed on other teams or rookie free agents and turning them into solid players. As far as signing players, he's overpaid for a couple of guys. This is true, yet he hasn't cheated the system the way the Niners got caught doing in the past.

No, he hasn't... the salary cap won't let you cheat, really...

Now I could definitely see your point more if they were unable to get good production out of these lower round picks, but they have. It's also a given, because Gibbs has a history of turning lower round picks/undrafted free agents into productive players.

He hasn't gotten much out of his late rounders the last 2 years... and it doesn't look like any of them will be significant contributors any time soon (I wouldn't give up on Robert McCune yet, though)... Skins fans had better hope he does better with his late round picks this year, 'cause that's about all you guys have...

So he can afford to give up higher round draft picks to acquire experienced players. It all balances out. Is this different from the rest of the league? Definitely. Is it buying a championship? Absolutely not.

Did I say it was?? Nope, all I said was the Skins are doing things differently than most every other team in the NFL these days...

I think you take that "buying a championship" thing too literally, really... what that is, is a rather insulting shorthand for relying heavily on free agency to restock your roster... and of course, unless the Skins DO win a championship, it's pretty asinine for anybody to say that's what Danny Boy's doing...

As a person, I can't stand Snyder. I've met many people who worked in the organization before he took over and they all have the same opinion of him.

That's my problem with him, right there... it has nothing to do with football at all... I started hating him when I read about how he fired a security game after the first Dallas loss at RFK, for "slouching"... obviously, he was just pissed about the game, so he goes and puts a man trying to make a living on the unemployment line??

Then, I read about him disrupting an owner's meeting by taking a call on his cell phone, there in the meeting, and proceeding to ream some poor employee at at the top of his lungs, using language that would even make ME blush (and I'm semi-legendary on these message boards for my vulgarity, LOL)...

I just think that Danny Boy is an abusive jerk, and somebody oughta knock him on his little butt the next time he pulls that garbage... I'd kick in for that guy's legal defense fund...