Early Predictions for 2006

[silverbear]

I love how every Boyz fan on here loves to quote stats to back up their arguments, yet ignores the stats that go against it. Stats like Washington having more tackles, more assisted tackles,

That just MIGHT be explained by the fact that the Skins had more plays run against them (981 to 946)...

more defensed passes, more interceptions, more plays behind the line of scrimmage.

Meanwhile, the Boys gave up fewer first downs per game (16.0 to 16.1), they had the better 3rd down conversion rate (34.6 to 36.5), allowed fewer rushing TDs (13 to 15), allowed fewer runs of 20 yards plus (7 to 11), and had more sacks (37 to 35)...

Hmmmm, if you put ALL the numbers together, I'd say there isn't a whole lot of difference between the two defenses... and that was with the Cowboys putting in a whole new defense, one unlike anything they'd ever run before...

 

[SkinsFan26]

He was the ONLY WR in SF worth a damn. In Washington, he will be the #2 guy.

And Lloyd will get 800-1100 yards in Washington.

 

[silverbear]

Yet somehow, the Skins "trolls" never know what they're talking about.

If you're here to talk football, you're not a troll... if you're slinging sarcastic insults at the Boys and their fans, if you're just posting to provoke a reaction, then you're a troll...

So far, I don't really see you as a troll, but of course only you know what's in your heart...

And most of those Skins "trolls" NEVER bring any statistical arguments to back up their trollish opinions... you have at least tried to support your arguments with FACTS...

 

[The30YardSlant]

And Lloyd will get 800-1100 yards in Washington.

So Moss will have 1500 yards, Llyod will have 1000 yards, and Randle El will have 700 yards

That's 3200 yards. I guess by your logic, Brunell will not be throwing to anyone else all year. Not Portis, not Cooley, not anybody.

Here's what will really happen. Moss will get about 1400 yards, Llyod will get 600-700 and Randle El will get about 400

 

[Bizwah]

I was comparing their value for their teams. You know, I never called you a homer. But I can definitely say it is homerish to call a player who runs the whole defense and STILL makes plays as simply a "complimentary piece", simply because he isn't a big name.





Great. He does his job, I never stated otherwise.



This is his role, what else is supposed to do? It seems to me you just prefer Ware's role over Marshall's, and that is why you feel he is a better player. They did their jobs exactly how they were supposed to. I don't think if Ware was thrust into Marshall's role he'd have done half as well. He would've been out of position half of the time, filling the wrong gap on running plays, or outright getting beat in coverage. Yet this is just IMO, because it's very likely Ware will never be asked to play MLB.

Your guy does his job based on how well the others in front of him play. If your DL fails to keep the OL off of him, undoubtedly he will struggle.

Ware takes on OL nearly every play.

Bottom Line:

Ware is the superior player based on how he changes the game. Sure they are two different players. But right now, who would you rather have? A player that requires double teams and can get to the QB.....or a MLB that needs a good DL to be effective?

I'm not saying Marshall is a bad player. He wouldn't fit on our defense, but he's very solid....and solid only.

 

[silverbear]

For one, we're comparing what both players did in two totally different roles. It's foolish to say Ware could do Marshall's job, because we really have no idea about Ware's football smarts. GW's middle linebacker has to know the playbook like his ABC's and make major adustments on the field. Ware, being a former DE, has never been put in that position and it's foolish to say he could do a great job of it.

I agree that nearly every GM would take Ware over Marshall, but not because of their performances in 2005. They would because Marshall went undrafted, and Ware was highly regarded. They would because Marshall has been in the league for a number of years, and Ware is going into his sophmore season. It's expected that Ware will just improve off his already impressive rookie season. There really isn't any discussion in that regard, yet that doesn't diminsh the wonderful job Marshall did last year.

Gamebreaker, you're quite level headed and reasonable... props for your ability to make a good argument, while at the same time being able to acknowledge when one of your antagonists makdes a good point too...

 

[silverbear]

A team can't have stars at every position, much less 2nd stringers.

Who's talkin' about "stars"?? Once again, you drag in a transparent straw man, to try to derail this little debate onto turf that you find more to your liking...

The Skins do have one of the best O-lines in football and have added some depth this offseason.

No, they don't, and no, they haven't... they have a GOOD offensive line, but it features exactly one player who has EVER been in the Pro Bowl... and what they've added for depth is a joke...

OK, lemme rephrase that-- Tyson Walter is a joke... I've seen the guy play for years, and I can testify to that with complete confidence... Pucillo, he may be OK, but he really doesn't have a particularly impressive resume at this point... and the rest of your backups, well, they are dreck, plain and simple:

OG Jon Alston, 0 NFL games played...

OG Jim Jones, 0 NFL games played...

OG Ikechukwu Ndukwe, 0 NFL games played...

OT Jim Molinaro, 14 NFL games played, 0 starts... got into 11 games as a rookie, only 3 his second year... this suggests the coaches weren't all that thrilled with what he gave him the year before (though of course, part of the reason for that is the health of their OTs all last year)...

That's 4 backups, with a total of 14 NFL games played, and nary an NFL start among them... on a normal team, 3 of those guys would be likely early cuts, but the Skins will be forced to keep some of them around...

So, the BEST backup you have is Pucillo... contrast that to the Cowboys' backups:

OT Marc Colombo... 23 NFL games played, 7 starts... a former first round draft pick, his career has been derailed by injury... I'd be worried about him if was a starter, he does seem kind of brittle, but he can step in short term and do you a better job... given that the Skins' only backup OTs are Walter and Molinaro, I can categorically say that Colombo is better than either of them...

C/OG Andre Gurode... 60 NFL games played, 44 starts... he might wind up beating out Al Johnson, but given that Al started 31 of the last 32 games at center, I'm listing him as the starter for now... but either way, they're superior to what the Skins can line up as a backup at C...

OG Stephen Peterman... 3 NFL games played, 0 starts... if he doesn't step it up in camp this year, he might not make the 53 man roster...

C/OG Matt Tarullo... 0 NFL games played, 0 starts... not a sure bet the make the 53 man roster...

OG Cory Procter... 0 NFL games played, 0 starts... I'll be quite surprised if he makes the team...

OG Shannon Snell... 0 NFL games played, 0 starts...

Colombo and Gurode are better than any backup lineman the Skins have, Peterman is as good, Tarullo, Procter and Snell probably don't factor into the equation... and the Boys might just bring in another FA offensive lineman to improve their depth, and are VERY likely to draft one in the first 3 rounds of the upcoming draft...

At least the Skins have a talented set of starters on the O-line.

That much, I'll give you... and if those starters stay REAL healthy, your offense will be potent...

I just doubt that they can stay as healthy as they did last year... and if they don't, your offense will soon start to struggle...

 

[silverbear]

You really should take some notes from Silver Bear.

That catches me by surprise, I didn't think you had a very high opinion of my debating style...

But thanks for the compliment...

 

[silverbear]

That's not trolling, it's very close to being true if not true.

True or not, and I appreciate that you've shown some flexibility in your wording, if the intent is to provoke folks, then it's trolling...

Most of the time, I think you try to avoid trolling, but from time to time, I'm guessing when you're ticked at HH, you wander over the line... just remember that what will get you respect in here is to state your arguments with respect...

I don't go to other teams' message boards often, but when I do, I try to give respect... and not only do I generally get respect in return, I actually make a few friends along the way... heck, I have some of the more fanatic Iggles fans from their newsgroup who give me grief when I haven't posted over there in a while... IGGLES FANS??

Now, I don't suck up, I still speak my mind... but I strive to state my case reasonably, and I strive to listen to the arguments made countering that case... and when a legitimate point is raised, I acknowledge it...

As a result, I rarely get accused of trolling... if the truth were to be known, I think you're probably all right, you just need to stop letting some of our regulars in here jerk your chain...

I like talking football with fans of other teams, if those fans are decent guys... I dislike jerks, intensely...

 

[BigDFan5]

While we're at this relentless debate, I'm going to address a common misconception on this board.

Antwaan Randle El will be a huge addition for the Skins. He will get a few ST TD's. He will throw a few TD's. He will catch a few TD's. Someone at extremeskins put together a video. Have a look and tell me that he will not be an impact player next year.

http://s50.yousendit.com/d.aspx?id=358D2LASDJTAK31H16XMM6CDMM

Another common misconception

El had 1 TD last season

He has passed for 2 TDs in HIS WHOLE CAREER

He has returned 1 kickoff for a TD in HIS WHOLE CAREER

Punt returns is where he is dangerous returning 4 for TDs in his career

Last season he accounted for 4 total TD's and 3 lost fumbles, you guys gave him 30 million

 

[silverbear]

Brandon Lloyd was a pretty decent receiver against the Boys last year. He put up very respectable numbers on the 49ers. If he was the #1 anywhere else, say Minnesota, he would have been a 1200 yard 8 TD guy, without question.

Given that he's never had more than 750 yards in any season, and that he's never had more than 6 TDs in any season, I'd say there's a LOT of question about that one... in fact, I'd say it's rather silly to project those kinds of numbers onto him...

Particularly not when he was the Niners' number one receiver, and will be the number two for the Skins...

Randle El is more than a #3 receiver.

He'll be the number 3 receiver for the Skins, unless Brandon Lloyd is a LOT worse than your projections... his career numbers are that of a number 3 receiver too... again, you seem to be anticipating that just because these two signed with the Skins, they'll suddenly crank out career-best numbers, indeed numbers FAR better than anything they've produced before...

Perhaps a certain amount of that is understandable, after y'all watched Santana Moss put up career numbers last year, but it's illogical to assume that because he did, they will too... consider that they also signed David Patten last year, and he was a disappointment for them (even before he got hurt)... so just because the Skins picked them, it doesn't automatically mean that they made the right decision...

I think a reasonable expectation for Lloyd and Randle El, assuming neither has to miss much time, is 75-100 catches... which will, of course, be an upgrade for the Skins, but not nearly the upgrade you seem to think they'll provide... and of course, if they put up those kinds of numbers, that will mean that Moss and Cooley won't catch quite as many balls as they did last year... which might be a good thing, a more diversified passing attack, so don't think I'm insulting them...

 

[silverbear]

Desperation for a SB, not to improve the WR group.

Your point is not invalid, but maybe your rhetoric is bit hyperbolic, a bit over the top... think you could reconsider the word "desperate", and come up with something more accurate??

I think that Jerry gambled, for sure... but I think that he likes doing that... this is the guy who traded for Charles Haley, who went out and gave Deion an obscene contract... and though I know he burns to win, I think it's extreme to characterize this move as "desperation"... after all, he did get a really good, really productive wide receiver (who just happens to be a world-class jerk as well)... and a desperate man wouldn't have written such a smart contract, he would have just thrown the money at TO, consequences be d***ed...

 

[silverbear]

Relax man, let them have their moment in the sun. God knows it only happens once or so a decade.

I'm relaxed, I just find it funny how, after years of the extremest frustration, the Skins grab 2 wins against the Boys, and suddenly they're on a streak like the Boys enjoyed against them...

This is, of course, quite comical...

 

[silverbear]

Blah blah...

English translation-- I don't have any effective counter for Bear's stats, so I'll just blow them off with a "blah blah"...

I love how you guys hate having to deal with statistical fact... you try to tell me they don't tell the whole story, but y'know, I have found over the years that if you know what you're looking for, you CAN analyze a team pretty accurately by looking at the stats sheet...

the Steelers run a little different offense than the Chiefs or Commanders. The Skins wouldn't have signed him if he wasn't going to be a big part of the offense. True.

So, you're standing by your claim of a "few" TDs on special teams, and a "few" TDs throwing the ball?? OK, we'll file that away, and get back to you at the end of the season... if the guy has scored 6 TDs combined in those 2 areas, I'll concede that I was wrong... will you be equally honest when (not if) he doesn't put up the kinds of numbers you're suggesting he will??

 

[silverbear]

He had 800 in SFran.

No, he didn't... his best year was last year, when he had 733 yards...

Only a Cowboys fan would say that he couldn't get more elsewhere.

Only a Skins fan would say that just because he's become a Commander, he'll automatically post numbers nearly 40 percent better than he's ever posted before... David Patten didn't, in fact he put up subpar numbers for him...

And why would ANYBODY expect him to put up such improved numbers, when he's going from being his team's primary target, their number one receiver, to being the number two receiver for the Skins... he has a LOT more talent around him that can catch the ball than he had with the Niners, those guys will get their touches, and that will come at the expense of Lloyd...

Really, you seem to believe that Lloyd is fated to be next Santana Moss, with your talk about 1200 yard seasons... that is a totally unrealistic expectation, the kind of thing that gets a buy branded a homer...

 

[silverbear]

combine with the way the Skins are being built, yes. It won't be one-sided again for a long time. Therefore, a change in the trend has begun.

Oh, you're saying the trend is toward a more competitive series...

I don't have a problem with that, I thought that you were talking about the Skins starting a string of domination to rival the one the Cowboys recently enjoyed...

I don't see either team getting to that point again anytime soon; in fact, I still can't figure out how in God's name we were able to extend that one as far as we did, often we were the clearly weaker team...

I just misunderstood you on this one... my bad...

 

[silverbear]

And Lloyd will get 800-1100 yards in Washington.

Well, that's down from your ORIGINAL claim... something about 1200 yards, IIRC...

I've made my predictions already, between Lloyd and Randle El, I anticipate 75-100 catches... given each guy's career yards per catch averages (a combined 13.2 YPC), that would work out to maybe 1000-1350 yards between them... 8-10 TDs combined...

The only way I see those numbers improving significantly is if Santana Moss were to get hurt fairly early in the season...

 

[Gamebreaker]

With all those FAs in 2000, what was your record? Exactly. Saying that it was good because they helped the defense is like saying you brought in a chandelier and some nice furniture to fix up one room of a haunted house. The house is still a piece of crap, just a little less crappy.

So Bruce Smith, Deion Sanders, and Mark Carrier were supposed to play offense too? Just give up. Your reasoning changes more than the Bush Administration.

And I'm not going to go find Quincy Carter's stats, I dont need to.

Oh yes, you do. To prove one player had a better college career than another, you would need to actually provide that player's statistics to back it up. The fact that you refuse to do so only shows you have as little faith in your argument as I do.

Numbers mean almost nothing in college. Andre Ware (considering I doubt you know who he is since you have obviously never watched college football, you can feel free to ask for an explantion) put up record numbers at Houston. He was maybe the biggest bust in NFL history. Danny Wuerful? Ryan Leaf? Any QB who's ever played for Texas Tech (That's a school in Lubbuck, Texas with a pass happy offense, think Steve Spurrier)? Whta have any of these guys ever done in the NFL after lighting it up in college?

You are so pathetic. We were never talking about the NFL. Stop backpedaling and trying to come up with irrelevant points and just address the issue. YOU said Quincy Carter had a better college career than Jason Campbell. This is false, EVERYONE knows it's false, including you. So somehow this has WHAT to do with the NFL? Keep spinning, man. I'm loving it over here.

The rest of your post was nonsense, it's not worth responding to. It's all your opinion, and you brought no evidence to back it up. Why bother countering an argument that you can't even prove. Only an idiot what say those things about those players, you definitely have that hyperbole thing down pat.

 

[Gamebreaker]

I think he was making a more general point, that in the past the Skins' spending sprees haven't translated into success on the field... and while there are obviously differences in the specifics of each year's situations, as a generic argument it is not without merit...

Especially when all we heard from you Skins fans last year was how their sudden restraint in free agent spending was proof that Gibbs was having a positive effect on Danny Boy, teaching him restaint and the value of making shrewder personnel decisions... you talked about how constantly shuffling players on a wholesale basis was damaging to "continuity" and "cohesiveness", and how Danny Boy seemed to have FINALLY learned that less...

Then this year, Gibbs is actually buying into Danny Boy's old philosophy, and you guys are now crowing about how you're adding all this new talent... fpr the strangest reason, I can't seem to find ONE of you who are still backing that "continuity" theory...

It would be nice if you guys would pick one argument, and stick with it...

It would be nice if I wasn't stereotyped and generalized with every Skins fan you encountered last season. How long have I been a member here? Thank you. You are very liberal with the word "you." You won't find me saying all of you cowboys fans think Ware is better than Washington just because one of you do. On regards to continuity, we're returning 18 out of 22 starters and all of the core players who were instrumental in our success last season will still be there. Where is the lack of continuity?

Furthermore, when he jumps around from point to point, never actually defending his argument when I counter it. It shows he really doesn't have any merit at all. There is no such thing as 'buying a championship', unless Snyder goes to the league and offers a large amount for a Lombardi Trophy. Which Snyder hasn't done, which means he's done nothing different from any other team in this league.

 

[Gamebreaker]

Actually, the Skins would have preferred to sign Jonathan Goodwin, and he would have been a MUCH better option... but because of what they've splurged on thus far in the offseason, they just didn't feel like they could afford to meet his asking price... so their overpaying at other positions has already hampered their ability to upgrade at a position of need...

That is your opinion, not a fact. No one knows why Goodwin wasn't signed, and unless you were at Commander Park when he made his visit, I'd expect you not to assume the reason and only deal with facts.