Emmitt, you can relax, LT is on the downside

[AbeBeta]

Even if he does that (it's unlikely), he'll still be 33 years old and more than 3,000 yards behind Emmitt's record. The list of feature backs who were still going at age 33 has only one name on it: Emmitt Smith. And Tomlinson will have to keep going much longer than Emmitt did, even with your lofty expectations for his next three seasons.

But hey, the last guy who was supposed to break Emmitt's record fell short by only 4,254 yards. Who knows, maybe Tomlinson can get closer than that.

So your argument boils down to this "It would take a record breaking effort to break Emmitt's record"

I'm certainly not saying LT breaking the record is a given. I am saying that you are putting him in the can too early. A good finish to this season -- do recall that there are 4 games left and a good couple of years in the seasons that follow put him much closer.

The issue of being 33 comes back to my point -- how much does he want the record. Emmitt was a guy who was able to get a job at an advanced age - less because he was still a great back, more because he wanted to keep going. If LT has the desire what is to keep him from doing the same?

 

[AdamJT13]

So your argument boils down to this "It would take a record breaking effort to break Emmitt's record"

Obviously. But the key is by HOW MUCH Tomlinson would have to break Emmitt's record for rushing yards after turning 30, especially given how nobody else has ever come close to it, and only one other feature back has even gotten three-quarters of the way there. It's not like Tomlinson merely has to do what nobody else has ever done, he has to do far more than anyone else has ever done.

The issue of being 33 comes back to my point -- how much does he want the record. Emmitt was a guy who was able to get a job at an advanced age - less because he was still a great back, more because he wanted to keep going. If LT has the desire what is to keep him from doing the same?

The same thing that has kept every feature back in NFL history from doing it.

 

[Hostile]

LT has 11,444 yards. He will be 30 when next season starts. I have noticed that after 6 years in the NFL most RBs start to decline. When they reach 30 the decline really happens.

He is 6911 yards behind Emmitt. He can shave another 300 to 400 yards off this year. Figure he will be 6500 behind him and 30 years old to start next year.

I don't believe he can catch him unless 2009 is a huge year for him. It would take a Herculean effort and him playing and contributing way past his value.

 

[Da Hammer]

i predicted LT's decline before the season started not that it was really me going that far out their. its just he's at the age where the body for a RB just doesnt quite react as well as it used to to all the big hits that they receive over the course of a game and year. Also have to factor in that LT is not exactly the toughest player u will ever watch. Compared to Emmitt who might be the toughest RB ive ever seen! It will be decades IMO before anyone even comes close to break his record!

 

[AbeBeta]

Obviously. But the key is by HOW MUCH Tomlinson would have to break Emmitt's record for rushing yards after turning 30, especially given how nobody else has ever come close to it, and only one other feature back has even gotten three-quarters of the way there. It's not like Tomlinson merely has to do what nobody else has ever done, he has to do far more than anyone else has ever done.

The same thing that has kept every feature back in NFL history from doing it.

Again, to break a record you are saying he'd have to do something no one else had done before. Are you missing the circular nature of your logic here?

Yes, it would be an amazing feat. But we aren't talking about just any feature back, we are talking about the best back of this generation. Projecting what the best player will do based on what the average player had done is often a risky proposition.

And again, I think you continue to write off LT too early. If next year at this time he's only 1000 yards closer then he's likely done. But if he plays well in the next 4 games and had that "return to form" year in 2009, then we've got a very different story.

 

[AbeBeta]

LT has 11,444 yards. He will be 30 when next season starts. I have noticed that after 6 years in the NFL most RBs start to decline. When they reach 30 the decline really happens.

He is 6911 yards behind Emmitt. He can shave another 300 to 400 yards off this year. Figure he will be 6500 behind him and 30 years old to start next year.

I don't believe he can catch him unless 2009 is a huge year for him. It would take a Herculean effort and him playing and contributing way past his value.

It sure will take a huge effort. However, that's what players who break records like this do.

The 30 mark is huge -- however at 30 Emmitt went for almost 1400 yards then did 1200 at 31 - those were the years that really made the record for him. Any back who wants to come close is going to have to do something special at 30+ - and as I've noted earlier if SD can limit his touches in the passing game (he'll likely end this season with more career catches than Emmitt) then they are going to extend his life as a runner.

 

[Hostile]

It sure will take a huge effort. However, that's what players who break records like this do.

The 30 mark is huge -- however at 30 Emmitt went for almost 1400 yards then did 1200 at 31 - those were the years that really made the record for him. Any back who wants to come close is going to have to do something special at 30+ - and as I've noted earlier if SD can limit his touches in the passing game (he'll likely end this season with more career catches than Emmitt) then they are going to extend his life as a runner.

Like I said, most RBs start to decline at year 6. Noticeable decline. Emmitt did for TDs, not for yards.

LT will finish this year with around 1000 to 1100 yards. That is a far cry from 2 years ago. Going into next year he will be 30 and around 6500 yards shy of the record. If he has a great year. Let's say 1500 yards. That would still make him 5000 yards shy at 31 going into 2010.

Yeah, nothing is impossible. I'm not seeing it.

 

[joseephuss]

Again, to break a record you are saying he'd have to do something no one else had done before. Are you missing the circular nature of your logic here?

Yes, it would be an amazing feat. But we aren't talking about just any feature back, we are talking about the best back of this generation. Projecting what the best player will do based on what the average player had done is often a risky proposition.

And again, I think you continue to write off LT too early. If next year at this time he's only 1000 yards closer then he's likely done. But if he plays well in the next 4 games and had that "return to form" year in 2009, then we've got a very different story.

I don't see the circular logic or the comparison to what the average player has done.

If LT gains 5889 yards after the age of 30 he will still be short of Emmitt's record. Him gaining 5889 yards after the age of 30 is something that only one guy in NFL history has done. That is comparing LT to one of the best backs of his generation. Not to mention that two other great backs, Walter Payton and Tony Dorsett also could not accomplish what Emmitt did after the age of 30.

This is no comparison to the average player. The average running back plays 3 seasons. These guys are the best of the best.

LT is one of my favorite players. I don't see him breaking the record. I do think the probability is very low. Age is something that is difficult to overcome. Sure he is playing with a nagging injury. That tends to happen to older players. It is harder for them to overcome nagging injuries than when they were younger.

 

[AdamJT13]

Again, to break a record you are saying he'd have to do something no one else had done before. Are you missing the circular nature of your logic here?

No, you're missing the fact that he would have to do FAR MORE than anyone else has ever done.

For Ware to get the (official) single-season sacks record, he needs eight sacks in four games. That's been done before. For Ratliff to get it, he needs 17 sacks in four games. That's far more than anyone else has ever had. See the difference?

 

[AbeBeta]

No, you're missing the fact that he would have to do FAR MORE than anyone else has ever done.

And you miss the fact that people who break records do MORE than anyone else has ever done. That's what makes it a record.

Again, as a I said, I'm not convinced he can break the record. But I do think it is far too early to count him out.

 

[AbeBeta]

I don't see the circular logic or the comparison to what the average player has done.

If LT gains 5889 yards after the age of 30 he will still be short of Emmitt's record. Him gaining 5889 yards after the age of 30 is something that only one guy in NFL history has done. That is comparing LT to one of the best backs of his generation. Not to mention that two other great backs, Walter Payton and Tony Dorsett also could not accomplish what Emmitt did after the age of 30.

You see - that's the point. He'd have to do something that only one other player has done - that's what people who break records do.

Again, counting him out because of a single down season when his team flat out stinks strikes me as premature. As does comparing his performance to guys who played 20 years ago under completely different conditions.

 

[joseephuss]

And you miss the fact that people who break records do MORE than anyone else has ever done. That's what makes it a record.

Again, as a I said, I'm not convinced he can break the record. But I do think it is far too early to count him out.

I started counting LT out last year. He had good final totals for the 2007 season, but he was very inconsistent the whole year. He looked as if he was already slowing down last season, so it was no surprise that his totals for this year would be down.

 

[joseephuss]

You see - that's the point. He'd have to do something that only one other player has done - that's what people who break records do.

Again, counting him out because of a single down season when his team flat out stinks strikes me as premature. As does comparing his performance to guys who played 20 years ago under completely different conditions.

That is flawed logic.

Let me put it this way. Before the age of 30 Emmitt put up 12,566 yards. If LT finished this season with 1000 yards that will give him 11,650 yards before the age of 30. Guys that break records tend to be ahead of the record pace they are chasing. Walter Payton had 11,625 yards before he turned 30 and as you can see Emmitt was ahead of that pace.

LT is not even on pace for the record yet he is somehow going to pick up the pace in his latter years. Highly unlikely. That is not how records are broken unless your name is Barry Bonds and your hat size has grown three sizes.

 

[AdamJT13]

And you miss the fact that people who break records do MORE than anyone else has ever done. That's what makes it a record.

I'm not missing anything. Like I've been saying, Tomlinson doesn't just have to do more -- he has to do FAR more.

It's like Brees needing 5,880 yards instead of 5,088, or Ware needing 28 sacks instead of 23, or Romo needing 59 TD passes instead of 51, or Marvin Harrison needing 600 catches instead of 460. Breaking the record is hard enough, but to surpass it by that much is virtually impossible.

 

[Hostile]

That is flawed logic.

Let me put it this way. Before the age of 30 Emmitt put up 12,566 yards. If LT finished this season with 1000 yards that will give him 11,650 yards before the age of 30. Guys that break records tend to be ahead of the record pace they are chasing. Walter Payton had 11,625 yards before he turned 30 and as you can see Emmitt was ahead of that pace.

LT is not even on pace for the record yet he is somehow going to pick up the pace in his latter years. Highly unlikely. That is not how records are broken unless your name is Barry Bonds and your hat size has grown three sizes.

I agree.

 

[AbeBeta]

That is flawed logic.

Let me put it this way. Before the age of 30 Emmitt put up 12,566 yards. If LT finished this season with 1000 yards that will give him 11,650 yards before the age of 30. Guys that break records tend to be ahead of the record pace they are chasing. Walter Payton had 11,625 yards before he turned 30 and as you can see Emmitt was ahead of that pace.

LT is not even on pace for the record yet he is somehow going to pick up the pace in his latter years. Highly unlikely. That is not how records are broken unless your name is Barry Bonds and your hat size has grown three sizes.

Actually, what is flawed logic is the post-30 analyses. We have data on how say Payton, Dorsett, and Smith performed after 30. All put up good yards. LT would have to surpass their performance.

However that that totally fails to take into account in each case is that the players decided when to walk away.

Take Emmitt for example. Why was 22's post-30 production so good? At least partially because AFTER breaking the record he was committed to continuing to play and gained nearly an additional 1200 yards in doing so. Emmitt certainly could have eeked out another year in AZ if he wanted. Why did he get those extra yards? Because he wanted to keep playing and extend his record. That isn't so much about being a great back anymore (although closing in on 1000 yards at 35 is damn good) - it is about wanting to continue to produce.

Which of course goes back to my original point. If LT wants it bad enough (and if he has a couple of really good years over the next 3) then he may well take the Emmitt route and stay in the league long after his best days are done to chase the record. I expect there will be plenty of crap teams like the Cards lining up to let him do so.

 

[AbeBeta]

I'm not missing anything. Like I've been saying, Tomlinson doesn't just have to do more -- he has to do FAR more.

It's like Brees needing 5,880 yards instead of 5,088, or Ware needing 28 sacks instead of 23, or Romo needing 59 TD passes instead of 51, or Marvin Harrison needing 600 catches instead of 460. Breaking the record is hard enough, but to surpass it by that much is virtually impossible.

-- see my post on the post-30 productivity.

 

[Hostile]

Actually, what is flawed logic is the post-30 analyses. We have data on how say Payton, Dorsett, and Smith performed after 30. All put up good yards. LT would have to surpass their performance.

However that that totally fails to take into account in each case is that the players decided when to walk away.

Take Emmitt for example. Why was 22's post-30 production so good? At least partially because AFTER breaking the record he was committed to continuing to play and gained nearly an additional 1200 yards in doing so. Emmitt certainly could have eeked out another year in AZ if he wanted. Why did he get those extra yards? Because he wanted to keep playing and extend his record. That isn't so much about being a great back anymore (although closing in on 1000 yards at 35 is damn good) - it is about wanting to continue to produce.

Which of course goes back to my original point. If LT wants it bad enough (and if he has a couple of really good years over the next 3) then he may well take the Emmitt route and stay in the league long after his best days are done to chase the record. I expect there will be plenty of crap teams like the Cards lining up to let him do so.

That is the part we are all trying to tell you is monumental.

Play along. He's at 11,444 right now. Give him 100 yards per game for the final 4. He goes into 2009 at 11,844. Give him an amazing 1500 yards at 30 years old in 2009. That brings him to 13344. He is still 5011 yards short.

Give him 1500 more at 31. He's still 3511 short. To eclipse Emmitt he would need to play past 35 years old which is highly unlikely already. And he would have to average over 875 yards for 4 years and that is with giving almost 1000 yards over what he is producing RIGHT now at 29.

I'm hand delivering you nearly 1000 yards of theoretical "can he do it." Take away 600 yards of that and give him 2 years of 1200 yards (which is better than he is averaging right now) and he would need to average over 1000 yards per season up to the age of 36.

You'd have better luck trying to shove hot butter up an unchained rabid wildcat's trash with a hot poker under a Death Valley sun in July.

 

[joseephuss]

That is the part we are all trying to tell you is monumental.

Play along. He's at 11,444 right now. Give him 100 yards per game for the final 4. He goes into 2009 at 11,844. Give him an amazing 1500 yards at 30 years old in 2009. That brings him to 13344. He is still 5011 yards short.

Give him 1500 more at 31. He's still 3511 short. To eclipse Emmitt he would need to play past 35 years old which is highly unlikely already. And he would have to average over 875 yards for 4 years and that is with giving almost 1000 yards over what he is producing RIGHT now at 29.

I'm hand delivering you nearly 1000 yards of theoretical "can he do it." Take away 600 yards of that and give him 2 years of 1200 yards (which is better than he is averaging right now) and he would need to average over 1000 yards per season up to the age of 36.

You'd have better luck trying to shove hot butter up an unchained rabid wildcat's trash with a hot poker under a Death Valley sun in July.

Dude, that is about a random comparison as I have ever read. The kind that just does not pop up without some past experience.

Guys that break records, break records unless they don't.

Walter Payton is probably my favorite running back of all time. If he could not beat what Emmitt did after the age of 30, then no one will. And Walter started off strong after the age of 30. He then fell off very quickly at age 33. That is what any running back is up against. It catches up with the best of them.

Walter Payton
Age 30
1684 yards

Age 31
1551 yards

Age 32
1333 yards

Age 33
533 yards
This was the strike shortened season of 1987, so he did this in 12 games. Still that works out to about 711 yards for a 16 game season, which was a big drop off. The 711 yards would still not have put Payton in the top ten for runners that season.

 

[AbeBeta]

That is the part we are all trying to tell you is monumental.

Play along. He's at 11,444 right now. Give him 100 yards per game for the final 4. He goes into 2009 at 11,844. Give him an amazing 1500 yards at 30 years old in 2009. That brings him to 13344. He is still 5011 yards short.

Give him 1500 more at 31. He's still 3511 short. To eclipse Emmitt he would need to play past 35 years old which is highly unlikely already. And he would have to average over 875 yards for 4 years and that is with giving almost 1000 yards over what he is producing RIGHT now at 29.

I'm hand delivering you nearly 1000 yards of theoretical "can he do it." Take away 600 yards of that and give him 2 years of 1200 yards (which is better than he is averaging right now) and he would need to average over 1000 yards per season up to the age of 36.

You'd have better luck trying to shove hot butter up an unchained rabid wildcat's trash with a hot poker under a Death Valley sun in July.

Yes, that part is monumental but again, breaking records generally requires monumental efforts. Emmitt came back strong after a down year and many folks were having this same discussion about him at the time. Emmitt, at 30, then had arguably his best season since 1995 (when he was 26). If LT does come back strong then he can be in striking distance - as I've noted it would take a considerable performance over the next few years. If he does as well as 22 did over the same ages, he's got about 3000 yards left going into a season at age 33.

At that point it is a matter of how long he wants to play in the league. I don't see playing past 35 as that much of a stretch -- Emmitt certainly could have gone past there -- but he didn't want to. If LT gets a bug in his bum about being the record holder, there is no telling how willing he would be to do the same and how long he might try to go.