Emmitt, you can relax, LT is on the downside

[AbeBeta]

Dude, that is about a random comparison as I have ever read. The kind that just does not pop up without some past experience.

Guys that break records, break records unless they don't.

Walter Payton is probably my favorite running back of all time. If he could not beat what Emmitt did after the age of 30, then no one will. And Walter started off strong after the age of 30. He then fell off very quickly at age 33. That is what any running back is up against. It catches up with the best of them.

Walter Payton
Age 30
1684 yards

Age 31
1551 yards

Age 32
1333 yards

Age 33
533 yards
This was the strike shortened season of 1987, so he did this in 12 games. Still that works out to about 711 yards for a 16 game season, which was a big drop off. The 711 yards would still not have put Payton in the top ten for runners that season.

Walter did have that drop off at 33. He also split carries that year. But let me ask this. If Walter was pursuing a record, do you not think that (if he found it important) that he would have continued? After all, his 3.7 YPC certainly was better than Emmitt's AZ years - and his 30+ receptions that year more than doubled anything 22 did the 3 years previous.

That is, Walter looks like he had a bit more in his tank and likely could have given another year or two of similar productivity.

 

[RoadRunner]

That is, Walter looks like he had a bit more in his tank and likely could have given another year or two of similar productivity.

Emmitt could still have given another couple of 1000 yard seasons after he retired too.

Hell, in an alternate reality I have the record! See how easy these what ifs are?

 

[dfense]

That is the part we are all trying to tell you is monumental.

Play along. He's at 11,444 right now. Give him 100 yards per game for the final 4. He goes into 2009 at 11,844. Give him an amazing 1500 yards at 30 years old in 2009. That brings him to 13344. He is still 5011 yards short.

Give him 1500 more at 31. He's still 3511 short. To eclipse Emmitt he would need to play past 35 years old which is highly unlikely already. And he would have to average over 875 yards for 4 years and that is with giving almost 1000 yards over what he is producing RIGHT now at 29.

I'm hand delivering you nearly 1000 yards of theoretical "can he do it." Take away 600 yards of that and give him 2 years of 1200 yards (which is better than he is averaging right now) and he would need to average over 1000 yards per season up to the age of 36.

You'd have better luck trying to shove hot butter up an unchained rabid wildcat's trash with a hot poker under a Death Valley sun in July.

Wow, you've just incredibly confused me on my own original post.

 

[Hostile]

Wow, you've just incredibly confused me on my own original post.

Dang I'm good.

 

[AdamJT13]

At that point it is a matter of how long he wants to play in the league. I don't see playing past 35 as that much of a stretch -- Emmitt certainly could have gone past there -- but he didn't want to. If LT gets a bug in his bum about being the record holder, there is no telling how willing he would be to do the same and how long he might try to go.

I think you're overestimating teams' willingness to 1) pay an aging running back with 4,000 carries on his legs; and 2) actually give him the ball more than a few times a game. Remember, the Cardinals didn't want Emmitt back after his final season. It's not like he wasn't prodded to leave the game.

Shaun Alexander sure wants to keep playing, doesn't he? What did that get him, a midseason contract for the minimum salary and 11 whole carries before he got cut again? And he's only 31. Corey Dillon wants to play, too, but nobody has signed him since 2006. Wanting to play doesn't get you a contract, let alone hundreds of carries.

 

[THUMPER]

Actually, what is flawed logic is the post-30 analyses. We have data on how say Payton, Dorsett, and Smith performed after 30. All put up good yards. LT would have to surpass their performance.

However that that totally fails to take into account in each case is that the players decided when to walk away.

Take Emmitt for example. Why was 22's post-30 production so good? At least partially because AFTER breaking the record he was committed to continuing to play and gained nearly an additional 1200 yards in doing so. Emmitt certainly could have eeked out another year in AZ if he wanted. Why did he get those extra yards? Because he wanted to keep playing and extend his record. That isn't so much about being a great back anymore (although closing in on 1000 yards at 35 is damn good) - it is about wanting to continue to produce.

Which of course goes back to my original point. If LT wants it bad enough (and if he has a couple of really good years over the next 3) then he may well take the Emmitt route and stay in the league long after his best days are done to chase the record. I expect there will be plenty of crap teams like the Cards lining up to let him do so.

You continue to fail to take a couple of factors into consideration:

1. It isn't simply a matter of LT "wanting" it bad enough. There is some of that, as Barry obviously didn't want it badly enough, but it also requires a team to want HIM badly enough to pay him to play and to start him. Emmitt wanted to stay with the Cowboys but Parcells was unwilling to keep him around. Emmitt wanted to keep playing with the Cardinals after his final season but they were not willing to pay him anymore. He shopped himself around the league and no one was willing to sign him so he "retired". He still wanted to play, and had shown in his final season that he still had something left but not enough for teams to give a roster spot to a RB his age and with his miles. It takes two to tango, a team has to be willing to sign LT late in his career if he is to have any chance at all.

2. It also requires a team to be good late in his career for him to get the number of carries he would need. Walter's Bears were very good when he was in his 30s. The Cowboys were not great anymore but still decent. The Chargers seem to be going the wrong direction at this point which is not a good sign and will limit his carries as well as their willingness to keep paying him as skills decline.

3. As Adam keeps saying, it is one thing to have a record in reach, it is another thing to have it so far out that it becomes highly unlikely. That's now where Emmitt's record is for LT. To gain the amount of yards he needs as his skills decline and the team becomes less and less willing to pay him makes the record out of reach, regardless of how badly LT may want it.

I thought Adam's example of Ware and Ratliff both going for the single season sack record was excellent and shows why LT isn't likely to pass Emmitt.

If LT does come back and has a few outstanding seasons and the Chargers come back and start winning more games then he may have a shot at it but the signs are that neither is likely to happen.

What Emmitt accomplished was incredible!

 

[AbeBeta]

I think you're overestimating teams' willingness to 1) pay an aging running back with 4,000 carries on his legs; and 2) actually give him the ball more than a few times a game. Remember, the Cardinals didn't want Emmitt back after his final season. It's not like he wasn't prodded to leave the game.

Shaun Alexander sure wants to keep playing, doesn't he? What did that get him, a midseason contract for the minimum salary and 11 whole carries before he got cut again? And he's only 31. Corey Dillon wants to play, too, but nobody has signed him since 2006. Wanting to play doesn't get you a contract, let alone hundreds of carries.

Alexander and Dillon are not valid comparisons. Neither are chasing records nor are either the caliber of back that LT is. Guys like Walter Payton and Emmitt Smith are. Could those guys have gotten work past 33? Emmitt did. Payton likely could have seen at least one more season after 33. Even being less effective both were better than the majority of backs in the league.

If LT is chasing a record then one of the 32 teams could see bringing him in as a positive. And if that team relieves him of the burden of having to see time in the playoffs then he's got an even better situation (for pursuing a record at least).

 

[AbeBeta]

You continue to fail to take a couple of factors into consideration:

1. It isn't simply a matter of LT "wanting" it bad enough. There is some of that, as Barry obviously didn't want it badly enough, but it also requires a team to want HIM badly enough to pay him to play and to start him. Emmitt wanted to stay with the Cowboys but Parcells was unwilling to keep him around. Emmitt wanted to keep playing with the Cardinals after his final season but they were not willing to pay him anymore. He shopped himself around the league and no one was willing to sign him so he "retired". He still wanted to play, and had shown in his final season that he still had something left but not enough for teams to give a roster spot to a RB his age and with his miles. It takes two to tango, a team has to be willing to sign LT late in his career if he is to have any chance at all.

2. It also requires a team to be good late in his career for him to get the number of carries he would need. Walter's Bears were very good when he was in his 30s. The Cowboys were not great anymore but still decent. The Chargers seem to be going the wrong direction at this point which is not a good sign and will limit his carries as well as their willingness to keep paying him as skills decline.

3. As Adam keeps saying, it is one thing to have a record in reach, it is another thing to have it so far out that it becomes highly unlikely. That's now where Emmitt's record is for LT. To gain the amount of yards he needs as his skills decline and the team becomes less and less willing to pay him makes the record out of reach, regardless of how badly LT may want it.

I thought Adam's example of Ware and Ratliff both going for the single season sack record was excellent and shows why LT isn't likely to pass Emmitt.

If LT does come back and has a few outstanding seasons and the Chargers come back and start winning more games then he may have a shot at it but the signs are that neither is likely to happen.

What Emmitt accomplished was incredible!

What Emmitt accomplished was incredible. But what was incredible about it was that it looked like he was done at 28. He'd come off a couple of down seasons and most folks had written him off. He came back in a more limited role which had him far less involved in the passing game. Being limited in that manner allowed him to become more specialized (i.e., if he got hit it was almost always on a run). He averaged 1300 yards a season over the next three years, putting the record firmly in his reach. That average was only a 6% drop in production over the previous 8 seasons.

IF - and its a big IF - LT has a similar outcome (provided that he gets say another 400 yards this season) of rushing for 94% of his previous season averages over the next 3 years. Then he ends up at about 2200 yards from the record. That 2200 yards incidentally is just about what Emmitt produced in his final three years.

The only difference here is that LT is going to be a year older. Again, big challenge with somewhat long odds. But the idea that LT can be written off at this point remains premature.

Now if LT comes back next year with a 900 yard season then Emmitt can stop worrying.

 

[cowboys2233]

I think you're overestimating teams' willingness to 1) pay an aging running back with 4,000 carries on his legs; and 2) actually give him the ball more than a few times a game. Remember, the Cardinals didn't want Emmitt back after his final season. It's not like he wasn't prodded to leave the game.

Shaun Alexander sure wants to keep playing, doesn't he? What did that get him, a midseason contract for the minimum salary and 11 whole carries before he got cut again? And he's only 31. Corey Dillon wants to play, too, but nobody has signed him since 2006. Wanting to play doesn't get you a contract, let alone hundreds of carries.

Plus, Emmitt has been the only football player to win the title on Dancing with the Stars.

Let's face it -- Emmitt just has that "it" factor.

 

[AbeBeta]

Plus, Emmitt has been the only football player to win the title on Dancing with the Stars.

Let's face it -- Emmitt just has that "it" factor.

You are right about that. LT doesn't have that "it" factor. Doubt it will develop either because a leopard can't change its stripes.

 

[Hostile]

What Emmitt accomplished was incredible. But what was incredible about it was that it looked like he was done at 28. He'd come off a couple of down seasons and most folks had written him off. He came back in a more limited role which had him far less involved in the passing game. Being limited in that manner allowed him to become more specialized (i.e., if he got hit it was almost always on a run). He averaged 1300 yards a season over the next three years, putting the record firmly in his reach. That average was only a 6% drop in production over the previous 8 seasons.

IF - and its a big IF - LT has a similar outcome (provided that he gets say another 400 yards this season) of rushing for 94% of his previous season averages over the next 3 years. Then he ends up at about 2200 yards from the record. That 2200 yards incidentally is just about what Emmitt produced in his final three years.

The only difference here is that LT is going to be a year older. Again, big challenge with somewhat long odds. But the idea that LT can be written off at this point remains premature.

Now if LT comes back next year with a 900 yard season then Emmitt can stop worrying.

Anything less than 1500 yards next year and he can probably stop worrying.