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Tier 1
T-1. Rodgers
T-2. Brady
3. Luck
4. Roethlisberger
5. P.Manning
6. Brees
Tier 2
7. Rivers
8. Wilson
9. Tony Romo
Average rating: 1.83 | Change in rating: +18%
2014 Rank: T-8
Romo produced like a top-tier quarterback last season when the Cowboys supported him with a dominant ground game, averaging 31.5 drop-backs per game, down from 40.9 over the past two seasons combined. The new approach put less pressure on Romo to make riskier throws.
"Last year's formula was outstanding for him and I'm wondering why they have not done that forever," an offensive coordinator said. "I do not care how sexy he looks throwing, he is a 2 to me because I know if it ends up in his hands, it is 50-50 [whether] he is going to make the big mistake."
The numbers don't necessarily support Romo being unreliable in crunch time. In fact, since 2011, Romo ranks second to Brees in Total QBR among 11 qualifying quarterbacks during fourth quarters and overtimes with the score tied or his team trailing by no more than eight points. His .500 winning percentage in those games (16-16 record) is best in the league over that span among those 11 quarterbacks.
"Solid 2 all day long," an offensive coach said. "Last year, he played like a 1 because they ran it and kept it out of his hands. That helped him and his interceptions went under 10. Romo, Flacco and [Matt] Ryan are just such solid 2s, but it seems to me Romo has done more."
Three defensive coordinators placed Romo in the top tier, as did one head coach, one offensive coordinator, a salary-cap manager and a director of analytics.
"Unequivocally, he is a top 6-7 quarterback," a personnel director said. "What they did offensively was perfect for him this past year where they had a strong run game and they could create space for people. Romo can find people and make all the throws. He had only one year where he threw a ton of picks. He has thrown picks at inopportune times, but it is not like Jay Cutler where he's in the 14-15 range per season. Romo can make a play to win the game."
A GM placed Romo in the second tier based on some of the mistakes Romo has made, but he also thought the Cowboys would be lost without him, as they were against Arizona last season.
"You never really want to put it on his shoulders game in and game out," a personnel director said. "They have done that in the past and it did not work out as well. When you give him the tools and add some run game and protection, he is much better."
10. Flacco
11. Ryan
T-12. E.Manning
Average rating: 2.17 | Change in rating: +2.7%
2014 Rank: T-8
Manning received 10 votes in the third tier, matching the total for the 11 quarterbacks listed ahead of him in the rankings. He was still solidly in the second tier, with some league insiders saying he was trending up at age 34.
"He had the drop-off in 2013, but I thought he really started to come on last year," a personnel director said. "Finally getting him weapons and guys with speed is really going to help him going forward. He is now throwing timing routes that he had not done before in his career. I like him. He has a poise about him. I do not think he is a 1. He has played like 1 in the playoffs at times. I'd be surprised if he did not have a good year this year."
A defensive coordinator with NFC East experience said he thought Manning had not changed much over the years. He said perceptions about Manning as an up-and-down player had more to do with changes to the defense and running game. Still, an offensive coordinator called Manning "an interception machine." Manning does have a league-high 185 interceptions since his 2004 rookie season. That includes a league-high 159 since Jay Cutler entered the league in 2006 (Cutler has 130, the third-highest total since then).
"I've seen him play some bad football," a head coach said. "Based on this scale, to keep it consistent, I think you have to give him a 2. The guy can go win a championship, but if we are talking quarterback evaluation, a 1 can go win it for you every week. Eli has been a 1 the right time of year."
A personnel director also drew the Cutler comparison, saying a team asking Manning to carry its offense with a pass-happy approach would get "more Cutler than consistent play" and that, like other players in the second and third tiers, Manning needs a combination of running game and defense to succeed. There is no shame in that, but it's what separates the best from the good enough.
One offensive coach on Stafford: "Stafford could be like Aaron Rodgers if he had the burning passion and if he had Mike McCarthy from Day 1." AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin
T-12. Stafford
14. Newton
Tier 3
15. Palmer
16. A.Smith
17. Tannehill
T-18. Kaepernick
T-18. Dalton
T-20. Carr
T-20. Cutler
22. Foles
T-23. Bradford
Average rating: 3.23 | Change in rating: -3.6%
2014 Rank: T-21
Bradford fell a bit in the rankings based on his inability to stay healthy in recent seasons, making just seven of 32 potential starts since 2013.
"I thought he was a 2 coming out because I did not see the big arm," a head coach said. "No one could tell from his pro day because [agent] Tom Condon wouldn't let him throw any deep comebacks. He has the intangibles, but you have to give him a 3 or 4 just because he is always hurt. Frankly, you probably want him to be your backup, just for his availability."
A defensive coordinator said he thought Bradford could flourish playing in Philadelphia because the Eagles' play-action game could buy him time he did not have in St. Louis. This coordinator added that Bradford would be an upgrade from Foles and Sanchez in terms of accuracy, but with the injury concerns, he placed Bradford only in the third tier.
"There is no quarterback I loved more than him coming out," a different head coach said. "I am pulling for him. If he can stay healthy, he can be so accurate. Keep him as a 3 but only because of the injury factor."
One personnel director on Bridgewater: "He is one of those guys who is a jack of all trades, master of none." AP Photo/Ann Heisenfelt
T-23. Bridgewater
25. Mariota
26. Winston
27. Bortles
28. RG3
Average rating: 3.91 | Change in rating: -30.5%
2014 Rank: T-19
One head coach wound up being the easiest grader overall -- and it wasn't even close -- placing 30 of the 32 quarterbacks in the top two tiers. The lone exceptions? Matt Cassel (Tier 3) and Griffin (Tier 4), which pretty much sums up where people around the league see Griffin at this stage of his career.
"Five, and there's no coming back," one offensive coach said. "He is done. The reason why is, the injury slowed his legs, and his ego will not allow him to hit rock bottom and actually grind his way back up the right way."
Multiple voters hit on that theme.
"To get better in this league, you have to have a degree of humility," a personnel director said. "Griffin sees himself like Peyton, in that light. When he looks in the mirror, he is seeing things that everybody else is not seeing. That is why I was surprised when they gave him the fifth-year [option] and said it was an easy decision."
Griffin did receive a lone second-tier vote from a GM who took a longer-range view.
"I know how hard it is for a quarterback to go into a system for the first time," he said. "I go back to Brett Favre. He was a 1, but he goes to the Jets and he was probably a 2 or a 3. Then he went to a familiar system in Minnesota and was a 1 again. With Griffin, I'm taking into account the new offense, the new personality at head coach, coming off an injury. He showed his rookie year that he could be a 1. He is a young guy. I'm going to give him the benefit because of that."
29. McCown
30. Hoyer
31. Cassel
32. G.Smith
T-1. Rodgers
T-2. Brady
3. Luck
4. Roethlisberger
5. P.Manning
6. Brees
Tier 2
7. Rivers
8. Wilson
9. Tony Romo
Average rating: 1.83 | Change in rating: +18%
2014 Rank: T-8
Romo produced like a top-tier quarterback last season when the Cowboys supported him with a dominant ground game, averaging 31.5 drop-backs per game, down from 40.9 over the past two seasons combined. The new approach put less pressure on Romo to make riskier throws.
"Last year's formula was outstanding for him and I'm wondering why they have not done that forever," an offensive coordinator said. "I do not care how sexy he looks throwing, he is a 2 to me because I know if it ends up in his hands, it is 50-50 [whether] he is going to make the big mistake."
The numbers don't necessarily support Romo being unreliable in crunch time. In fact, since 2011, Romo ranks second to Brees in Total QBR among 11 qualifying quarterbacks during fourth quarters and overtimes with the score tied or his team trailing by no more than eight points. His .500 winning percentage in those games (16-16 record) is best in the league over that span among those 11 quarterbacks.
"Solid 2 all day long," an offensive coach said. "Last year, he played like a 1 because they ran it and kept it out of his hands. That helped him and his interceptions went under 10. Romo, Flacco and [Matt] Ryan are just such solid 2s, but it seems to me Romo has done more."
Three defensive coordinators placed Romo in the top tier, as did one head coach, one offensive coordinator, a salary-cap manager and a director of analytics.
"Unequivocally, he is a top 6-7 quarterback," a personnel director said. "What they did offensively was perfect for him this past year where they had a strong run game and they could create space for people. Romo can find people and make all the throws. He had only one year where he threw a ton of picks. He has thrown picks at inopportune times, but it is not like Jay Cutler where he's in the 14-15 range per season. Romo can make a play to win the game."
A GM placed Romo in the second tier based on some of the mistakes Romo has made, but he also thought the Cowboys would be lost without him, as they were against Arizona last season.
"You never really want to put it on his shoulders game in and game out," a personnel director said. "They have done that in the past and it did not work out as well. When you give him the tools and add some run game and protection, he is much better."
10. Flacco
11. Ryan
T-12. E.Manning
Average rating: 2.17 | Change in rating: +2.7%
2014 Rank: T-8
Manning received 10 votes in the third tier, matching the total for the 11 quarterbacks listed ahead of him in the rankings. He was still solidly in the second tier, with some league insiders saying he was trending up at age 34.
"He had the drop-off in 2013, but I thought he really started to come on last year," a personnel director said. "Finally getting him weapons and guys with speed is really going to help him going forward. He is now throwing timing routes that he had not done before in his career. I like him. He has a poise about him. I do not think he is a 1. He has played like 1 in the playoffs at times. I'd be surprised if he did not have a good year this year."
A defensive coordinator with NFC East experience said he thought Manning had not changed much over the years. He said perceptions about Manning as an up-and-down player had more to do with changes to the defense and running game. Still, an offensive coordinator called Manning "an interception machine." Manning does have a league-high 185 interceptions since his 2004 rookie season. That includes a league-high 159 since Jay Cutler entered the league in 2006 (Cutler has 130, the third-highest total since then).
"I've seen him play some bad football," a head coach said. "Based on this scale, to keep it consistent, I think you have to give him a 2. The guy can go win a championship, but if we are talking quarterback evaluation, a 1 can go win it for you every week. Eli has been a 1 the right time of year."
A personnel director also drew the Cutler comparison, saying a team asking Manning to carry its offense with a pass-happy approach would get "more Cutler than consistent play" and that, like other players in the second and third tiers, Manning needs a combination of running game and defense to succeed. There is no shame in that, but it's what separates the best from the good enough.
One offensive coach on Stafford: "Stafford could be like Aaron Rodgers if he had the burning passion and if he had Mike McCarthy from Day 1." AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin
T-12. Stafford
14. Newton
Tier 3
15. Palmer
16. A.Smith
17. Tannehill
T-18. Kaepernick
T-18. Dalton
T-20. Carr
T-20. Cutler
22. Foles
T-23. Bradford
Average rating: 3.23 | Change in rating: -3.6%
2014 Rank: T-21
Bradford fell a bit in the rankings based on his inability to stay healthy in recent seasons, making just seven of 32 potential starts since 2013.
"I thought he was a 2 coming out because I did not see the big arm," a head coach said. "No one could tell from his pro day because [agent] Tom Condon wouldn't let him throw any deep comebacks. He has the intangibles, but you have to give him a 3 or 4 just because he is always hurt. Frankly, you probably want him to be your backup, just for his availability."
A defensive coordinator said he thought Bradford could flourish playing in Philadelphia because the Eagles' play-action game could buy him time he did not have in St. Louis. This coordinator added that Bradford would be an upgrade from Foles and Sanchez in terms of accuracy, but with the injury concerns, he placed Bradford only in the third tier.
"There is no quarterback I loved more than him coming out," a different head coach said. "I am pulling for him. If he can stay healthy, he can be so accurate. Keep him as a 3 but only because of the injury factor."
One personnel director on Bridgewater: "He is one of those guys who is a jack of all trades, master of none." AP Photo/Ann Heisenfelt
T-23. Bridgewater
25. Mariota
26. Winston
27. Bortles
28. RG3
Average rating: 3.91 | Change in rating: -30.5%
2014 Rank: T-19
One head coach wound up being the easiest grader overall -- and it wasn't even close -- placing 30 of the 32 quarterbacks in the top two tiers. The lone exceptions? Matt Cassel (Tier 3) and Griffin (Tier 4), which pretty much sums up where people around the league see Griffin at this stage of his career.
"Five, and there's no coming back," one offensive coach said. "He is done. The reason why is, the injury slowed his legs, and his ego will not allow him to hit rock bottom and actually grind his way back up the right way."
Multiple voters hit on that theme.
"To get better in this league, you have to have a degree of humility," a personnel director said. "Griffin sees himself like Peyton, in that light. When he looks in the mirror, he is seeing things that everybody else is not seeing. That is why I was surprised when they gave him the fifth-year [option] and said it was an easy decision."
Griffin did receive a lone second-tier vote from a GM who took a longer-range view.
"I know how hard it is for a quarterback to go into a system for the first time," he said. "I go back to Brett Favre. He was a 1, but he goes to the Jets and he was probably a 2 or a 3. Then he went to a familiar system in Minnesota and was a 1 again. With Griffin, I'm taking into account the new offense, the new personality at head coach, coming off an injury. He showed his rookie year that he could be a 1. He is a young guy. I'm going to give him the benefit because of that."
29. McCown
30. Hoyer
31. Cassel
32. G.Smith
