ESPN: Late-round picks catch on at WR

[Bob Sacamano]

Thiose arent numbers, thats a list. You have to look at all the passrushers drafted and compare it to that list and see what you come up with. At first glance that looks to be half as many people that are busts as WRs and I know alot of DE/OLB types are drafted in round one.

his #s show that 50% of the DEs taken in the 1st round from '96-'03 have busted

I have shown where over 50% of the OTs taken in the 1st round, in the same time-period, have busted

so the case can't just be made for WRs in the 1st having a greater chance of busting than other positions, so the later-round gems there should cause you to think twice about taking a WR in the 1st, as 2 other positions have a high bust rate of players chosen in the 1st round as well, and for every 1st round DE and OT bust, there is a later-round gem, just like there is for receivers

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I've seen this argument quite a bit, but it makes little sense. Yes, there is quite a bit of depth at the WR position, but that doesn't mean any of the good receivers will last to our 2nd or 3rd round pick.

Im just going by NFLDraftCoundowns gradings to make a quick opoint. i dont watch college football so when it comes to evaluating talent to a large extent Im dependent on others. This is jsut to make a point.

They have ten WRs listed as day one value. Compare that to 9 CBs, 6 RBs, 8 OTs, and 6 safties. Odds are that WR is the safest bet to wait on. Now there also seems to be a REALLY deep pool of DEs but our needs are a bit specific and I didnt go through the trouble of seeing who projected to 3-4 OLB.

You add to that the fact that there is a high bust rate of first round WRs and a large number of late round gems and i just dont like W R in the first.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

his #s show that 50% of the DEs taken in the 1st round from '96-'03 have busted

I have shown where over 50% of the OTs taken in the 1st round, in the same time-period, have busted

so the case can't just be made for WRs in the 1st having a greater chance of busting than other positions, so the later-round gems there should cause you to think twice about taking a WR in the 1st, as 2 other positions have a high bust rate of players chosen in the 1st round as well, and for every 1st round DE and OT bust, there is a later-round gem, just like there is for receivers

You can take Leonard Davis and Mark Columbo off your list there. Columbo is our starter and I didnt think Jordan Gross was that bad although I might be wrong. Ill look at the DEs here in a moment. Leonard Davis was a probowl alternate.

IR intentionally left the marginal guys off the list although he didnt want to youre putting everyone that isnt allpor on your list.

 

[Oh_Canada]

I am not sure about taking a wideout in this draft in the first round, since it is sooo deep this draft class. However, I look at a team like Indy and than compare them to New England and wonder if the difference between the two ultimately was at the wideout position. To say wide receiver in this day and age is less important and can easily be addressed in the later rounds is goofy. I think the Boys need to address the position in the first three rounds and one of Jason Hill, J.L Higgins, Craig Davis, Courtney Taylor or Brandon Myles would make for a nice addition.

 

[Oh_Canada]

Thiose arent numbers, thats a list. You have to look at all the passrushers drafted and compare it to that list and see what you come up with. At first glance that looks to be half as many people that are busts as WRs and I know alot of DE/OLB types are drafted in round one.

Those are the busts...the WR list included all of the players drafted.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Those are the busts...the WR list included all of the players drafted.

KK fair enough I had to look at his post again. Basically form what I can see form your three figures is that you guys are asying 50% of the OT and DE in those drafts are busts.

From IRs post there are 56% of those WRs that are not even in the league anymore and 66% that are busts.

That is a huge difference. 16%.

 

[Oh_Canada]

It's three or four player difference....percentages on such a small sample are almost irrelevant.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

KK fair enough I had to look at his post again. Basically form what I can see form your three figures is that you guys are asying 50% of the OT and DE in those drafts are busts.

From IRs post there are 56% of those WRs that are not even in the league anymore and 66% that are busts.

That is a huge difference. 16%.

all we're really saying is, the same could be said for every good OT, or DE, drafted in the 1st, there's a gem found later, could be said for WR too, it's just a big deal now because WRs like Marques Colston, taken at the very bottom of the draft, are having success

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

It's three or four player difference....percentages on such a small sample are almost irrelevant.

Then it was silly for you to post yours in the first place. First you say that the numbers are similar then you come back and say that the numbers dont matter. Contradict much?

And is it true that there are no Cheezits in Canada?

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

all we're really saying is, the same could be said for every good OT, or DE, drafted in the 1st, there's a gem found later, could be said for WR too, it's just a big deal now because WRs like Marques Colston, taken at the very bottom of the draft, are having success

Im not even saying that about the later rounds summer. What im saying is that the bust rate is 16% higher for first round WRs than it is for OTs and DEs given your figures.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Im not even saying that about the later rounds summer. What im saying is that the bust rate is 16% higher for first round WRs than it is for OTs and DEs given your figures.

sorry, I thought we were still on that topic

but it's still a great figure for 1st round OTs and DEs busting as well

btw, call me Bob

 

[Oh_Canada]

Then it was silly for you to post yours in the first place. First you say that the numbers are similar then you come back and say that the numbers dont matter. Contradict much?

And is it true that there are no Cheezits in Canada?

Huh? My numbers had NOTHING to do with percentages.

What the hell is a Cheezit?

 

[theogt]

Im not even saying that about the later rounds summer. What im saying is that the bust rate is 16% higher for first round WRs than it is for OTs and DEs given your figures.

Are you really taking that number as accurate?

 

[InmanRoshi]

Those are the busts...the WR list included all of the players drafted.

Plus its including players like Daryl Gardener .. who a) was a defensive tackle, and b) went to a couple of Pro Bowls. That's a bust? Heck, I was counting any WR who even sniffed a Pro Bowl as a success story. I think there were only about 6 in the 27 listed.


About half of the OT "busts" listed are currently starting for NFL teams, several of them at better than average players.
If you've been nominated to a couple of Pro Bowl alternates in five years you're a bust at OT (Leonard Davis). You're a stunning success that's beaten all the odds if you're even drawing an NFL paycheck in five years if you're a WR.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Since 1982 these are all the WR, DE and OT drafted in the first. Next to their names is either bust or boom. In order to be a bust you had to not make it to season 5, not start for the majority of their career or thier numbers sucked.

WR

Anthony Hancock bust
Lindsay Scott bust
Perry Tuttle bust
Mike Quick boom
Willie Gault boom
Irving Fryar boom
Kenny Jackson bust
Clyde Duncan bust
Louis Lipps boom
Al Toon boom
Eddie Brown boom
Jerry Rice boom
Jessie Hester bust
Mike Sherrard bust
Tim McGee boom
Haywood Jeffries boom
Ricky Nattiel boom
Mark Ingram boom
Tim Brown boom
Sterling Sharpe boom
Michael Irvin boom
Anthony Miller boom
Aaron Cox bust
Wendell Davis bust
Eric Metcalf bust
Hart Lee Dykes bust
Andre rison boom
Shawn Collins bust
Herman Moore boom
Alvin Harper boom
Mike Pritchard bust
Randall Hill bust
Desmond Howard bust
Curtis Conway bust
Sean Dawkins boom
OJ McDuffie boom
Charles Johnson bust
Johnnie Morton boom
Thomas Lewis bust
Derrick Alexander boom
Michael Westbrook bust
Joey Galloway boom
JJ Stokes bust
Key Johnson boom
Terry Glenn boom
Eddie Kennison boom
Marvin Harrison boom
Eric Moulds boom
Ike Hilliard boom
Yatil Green bust
Reidel anthony bust
Rae Carruth bust
Kevin Dyson bust
Randy Moss boom
Marcus Nash bust
Torry Holt boom
Davis Boston bust
Troy Edwards bust
Peter Warrick bust
Plax Burress boom
Travis Taylor bust
Sylvester Morris bust
RJ Soward bust
David Terrell bust
Koren Robinson bust
Rod Gardener bust
Sanatana Moss boom
Freddie Mtchell bust
Reggie Wayne boom
Donte Stallworth bust mediocre
Ashley Lelie boom
Javon Walker boom

36 of 73 or 49% busts

DE
Ken Sims bust
Jeff Bryant boom
Glenn Collins bust
Mike Pitts boom
Jim Jeffcoat boom
Rick Bryan boom
Alphonso Carriker boom
Ron Faurot bust
Pete Koch bust
Bruce Smith boom
Chris Doleman boom
Ron Holmes boom
Kevin Brooks bust
Darryl Sims bust
Jon Hand boom
Leslie Oneal boom
Gerald Robinson boom
Tim Green boom
Eric Dorsey bust
Bob Buczkowski bust
Reggie Rogers bust
John Bosa bust
Jason Buck boom
Tony Woods boom
Aundray Bruce boom
Neil Smith boom
Aaron Jones boom
Derrick Thomas boom
Burt Grossman boom
Trace Armstrong boom
Jeff Lageman boom
Wayne Martin boom
Bill Hawkins bust
Keith McCants boom
Anthony Smith boom
Marco Coleman boom
Alonzo Spellman boom
Chris Mims boom
Robert Porcher boom
John Copeland boom
Eric Curry bust
Bryant Young boom
Joe Johnson boom
Shante Carver bust
Derrick Alexander boom
Kevin Carter boom
Mike Mamula bust
Hugh Douglas boom
Simeon Rice boom
Cedric Jones bust
Regan Upshaw boom
Duane Clemons boom
Marcus Jones boom
Reinald Williams bust
Kenard Lang bust
Kenny Holmes boom
Renaldo Wynn bust
Joe Harris bust
Trevor Pryce boom
Andre Wadsworth bust
Grant Wistrom boom
Jason Peter bust
Jevon Kearse boom
Ebenezer Ekuban boom
Lamar king bust
Patrick Kerney boom
Courtney Brown bust
Shaun Ellis boom
John Abraham boom
Erik Flowers bust
Justin Smith boom
Richard Seymour boom
Andre Carter boom
Jamal Reynolds bust
julius Peppers boom
Dwight Freeney boom
Bryan Thomas bust
Charles Grant boom

26 of 78 busts or 33% busts

OT
Luis Sharpe boom
Chris Henton bust
Jimbo Covert boom
Dean Steinkuhler boom
Jon Alt boom
Brian Blados boom
Lokmas Brown boom
Ken Ruettgers boom
Kevin Allen bust
Jim Lachey boom
Wil Wolford boom
John Clay bust
Harris Barton boom
Bruce Armstrong boom
Paul Gruber boom
Tony Mandarich bust
David Williams boom
Tom Ricketts bust
Richmond Webb boom
Charles McRae bust
Antone Davis boom
Stan Thomas bust
Pat Harlow boom
Bob Whitfield boom
Ray Roberts boom
Leon Searcy boom
Jon Fina boom
Willie Roaf boom
Lincoln Kennedy boom
Brad Hopkins boom
Ernest Dye bust
Bernard Williams bust
Wayne Gandy boom
Aaron Taylor bust
Todd Steussie boom
Tony Boselli boom
Korey Stringer boom sad one though
Billy Milner bust
Blake Brokermeyer bust
Trazelle Jenkins bust
Jonathon Ogden boom
Willie Anderson boom
John Michels bust
Jamain Stephens bust
Andre Johnson bust
Orlando Pace boom
Walter Jones boom
Tarik Glenn boom
Kyle Turley boom
Tra Thomas boom
Victor Riley boom
John Tait boom
Luke Petitgout boom
LJ Shelton boom he started for 7 years and only missed 8 games
Aaron Gibson bust
Chris Samuels boom
Stockar McDougal bust
Leonard Davis boom
Kenyatta Walker bust
Jeff Backus boom
Mike Williams bust
Bryant McKinnie bust
Levi Jones boom
Marc Columbo boom

21 of 64 busts or 33% busts

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Are you really taking that number as accurate?

No but im taking my numbers as accurate as i did them myself.

Interesting enough the split is still 16%. Half of all the WRs in the last 25 years have busted bad. Where as only 1 in 3 of the other two positions.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

good job

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

good job

If youre tlaking to me then thank you

After doing this I REALLY hate the idea of a WR in the first. A 50% bust rate is horrific and its been worse in recent years. OT DT S CB RB LB please.