ESPN: Late-round picks catch on at WR

[Chocolate Lab]

ABQ, of all those teams, only the Colts invested a lot in WRs draft pick-wise with Harrison and Wayne.

And you cheated by including TEs and RBs. We were only talking about WRs.

The real key to all those teams you mentioned is that they all have outstanding QB play. If you have that, you've got 90% of the problem solved.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

ABQ, of all those teams, only the Colts invested a lot in WRs draft pick-wise with Harrison and Wayne.

And you cheated by including TEs and RBs. We were only talking about WRs.

The real key to all those teams you mentioned is that they all have outstanding QB play. If you have that, you've got 90% of the problem solved.

I agree with your statement about QBs but I dont' agree with the rest. Even if you say your going to disallow TEs and RBs, which IMO is not an accurate representation of the truth, then you still need to weigh this against money spent in FA for WRs who have proven to be better then there draft status. I mean, sure TO was much better then where he was drafted but the investment in players like Joe Horn and Stallworth and TO is great. While it might not represent a draft pick, it does represent a decent amount of cap.

If you say that Indy is the only team that really invested heavely, then that's the opinion you have of the situation and that's fine but lets keep in mind here, we all play for that trophy. This year, that trophy lives in Indy.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

I agree with your statement about QBs but I dont' agree with the rest. Even if you say your going to disallow TEs and RBs, which IMO is not an accurate representation of the truth, then you still need to weigh this against money spent in FA for WRs who have proven to be better then there draft status.

I love the truth as much as the next guy, but article is about late-round WRs hitting, so that's what we were talking about.

I mean, sure TO was much better then where he was drafted but the investment in players like Joe Horn and Stallworth and TO is great. While it might not represent a draft pick, it does represent a decent amount of cap.

If you say that Indy is the only team that really invested heavely, then that's the opinion you have of the situation and that's fine but lets keep in mind here, we all play for that trophy. This year, that trophy lives in Indy.

But I was just talking about draft picks. Guys like T.O. and Glenn and Keyshawn are good players and cost their fair share, but let's face it, we got them off the scrap heap. There's some reason that even though Glenn and T.O. were *very* high draft picks, they were floating around on their third teams. I would argue that the Peppers and Wares and Merrimans and Paces and Ogdens don't ever see free agency.

As far as Indy goes, they have a good WR corps, but I'm not sure it's better than Arizona's. And we see how much Fitzgerald and Boldin, as good as they are, have improved the Cards' record.

 

[dboyz]

I think I would generally agree with not taking a WR high. You can get them later. However, there are times it makes sense.

Where would we have been without Irvin?

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

I love the truth as much as the next guy, but article is about late-round WRs hitting, so that's what we were talking about.

But I was just talking about draft picks. Guys like T.O. and Glenn and Keyshawn are good players and cost their fair share, but let's face it, we got them off the scrap heap. There's some reason that even though Glenn and T.O. were *very* high draft picks, they were floating around on their third teams. I would argue that the Peppers and Wares and Merrimans and Paces and Ogdens don't ever see free agency.

As far as Indy goes, they have a good WR corps, but I'm not sure it's better than Arizona's. And we see how much Fitzgerald and Boldin, as good as they are, have improved the Cards' record.

What's the point of discussing a subject if your basing it on half the info? You can't look at this and say you don't need to spend high picks on WRs if your not taking into consideration the fact that you are spending high picks on TEs and RBs who are accounting for a large percentage of a given teams offensive output in context with there passing game. It's just not a true representation of the facts. If your going to look at it in that manner, then you have to qualify the position with, "but you must spend high picks on TEs and RBs." See my point here?

I don't have a problem with the idea that late round picks hit but to say that you don't need to spend high picks on WRs is crazy IMO. The two positions are very different.

The discussion of DEs on this issue is irrelivant IMO. As you said before, we are talking about WRs. I also don't believe that you can discount Cap spent on WRs later. You point out that there is a reason teams let big time WRs go but there is also a reason teams spend big time cap on WRs to get them signed. IMO, there is no question, it's better to develope WRs rather then go out and pay them on the FA market. In the long run, it's going to save you money and eventually translate into benifit for your over all team.

If your going to say that you shouldn't spend high picks on WRs, then you have to buy into the idea that we should never have drafted Roy Williams where we did. You don't spend high picks on Safeties either. I guess I just don't believe in this line of thinking where WRs are concerned.

 

[DC Cowboy]

By Len Pasquarelli
ESPN.com
Archive

Houston Texans star Andre Johnson, the leading receiver in the NFL in 2006 with 103 catches, is a former first-round draft choice and a two-time Pro Bowl performer and generally is regarded around the league as one of its emerging young stars.

The runner-up to Johnson last season with 98 catches, Mike Furrey of Detroit, was an undrafted free agent in 2000. He played in the short-lived XFL and the Arena Football League before making an NFL roster, was a safety for the St. Louis Rams before moving to wide receiver full time and had more tackles (59) than catches (21) entering the 2006 campaign.

Yet Furrey, a self-described "slow, possession-type white guy" of modest athletic capabilities, had only five fewer receptions than Johnson, registered the same average yards per catch and scored one more touchdown than his more-talented counterpart.

Given their similar accomplishments, Furrey and Johnson represent the difficult decision franchises face in the opening round of the draft every spring. And that conundrum -- whether to invest a first-round choice on a wide receiver or trust that a serviceable pass catcher will be available in a later round, as they typically are in every lottery -- is probably even more profound this year because of the presence of Calvin Johnson.

<snip>
Len Pasquarelli is a senior writer for ESPN.com.

LINK

So giving up two 1st for CJ is out of the question?

 

[ThreeSportStar80]

It doesn't get any simplier than that.

Yeah I agree, but it doesn't hurt when you've got the likes of T.O. and Glenn lining up each Sunday....

 

[Oh_Canada]

WR's drafted in the first round in the last 10 years from 1996-2003. I'll exclude 2003-2006, since I'll give guys three years of development before I call them busts.

Pete Warrick
David Boston
Troy Edwards
Tory Holt
Plaxico Burress
Travis Taylor
Sly Morris
RJ Soward
Kevin Dyson
Randy Moss
Marcus Nash
David Terrell
Koren Robinson
Rod Gardener
Santana Moss
Freddie Mitchell
Reggie Wayne
Dante Stallworth
Ashlie Lelei
Javon Walker
Ike Hilliard
Rediel Anthony
Yatil Green
Rae Carruth
Charles Rogers
Andre Johnson
Bryant Johnson

By my count 15 out of 27 that aren't even in the NFL anymore, and I'm being generous because I'm couting Koren Robinson as still in the league. I'm still leaving in guys who are career journeymen (Garndner), haven't lived up to expectations (Lelei), second stringers (Bryant Johnson) or guys playing on their 3rd team in three years (Stallworth). I'm talking 55% aren't even collecting an NFL paycheck.

I would only count 7 of those 27 as meeting or exceeding expectations, in my own personal job evaluation.

Jones, Cedric
Clemons, Duane
Jon Harris
Gardener, Daryl
Jones, Marcus
Kenny Holmes
Renaldo Wynn
Andre Wadsworth
Jason Peter
Ebenezer Ekuban
Courtney Brown
Erik Flowers
Justin Smith
Jamal Reynolds
Wendell Bryant

These guys were all drafted in the first round between 1996-2003. There were thirty ends drafted between those years....the numbers aren't really all that different.

 

[theogt]

You don't seem to mind using it. Would you like me to add Reidel Anthony and Ike Hillard to that list?

Mark Anderson and Marques Colston are a fair comparison compare as far as their impact. Marques Colston made the Pro Bowl and was an elite WR. Mark Anderson didn't even start last year. He racked up some nice sack totals as a situational package player, usually late in the game in blow outs (8.5 of his 12 sacks came with a point margin over 15 points).

Since its so hard to evaluate "busts", I'll let you do it on your own subjective nature...

WR's drafted in the first round in the last 10 years from 1996-2003. I'll exclude 2003-2006, since I'll give guys three years of development before I call them busts.

Pete Warrick
David Boston
Troy Edwards
Tory Holt
Plaxico Burress
Travis Taylor
Sly Morris
RJ Soward
Kevin Dyson
Randy Moss
Marcus Nash
David Terrell
Koren Robinson
Rod Gardener
Santana Moss
Freddie Mitchell
Reggie Wayne
Dante Stallworth
Ashlie Lelei
Javon Walker
Ike Hilliard
Rediel Anthony
Yatil Green
Rae Carruth
Charles Rogers
Andre Johnson
Bryant Johnson

By my count 15 out of 27 that aren't even in the NFL anymore, and I'm being generous because I'm couting Koren Robinson as still in the league. I'm still leaving in guys who are career journeymen (Garndner), haven't lived up to expectations (Lelei), second stringers (Bryant Johnson) or guys playing on their 3rd team in three years (Stallworth). I'm talking 55&#37; aren't even collecting an NFL paycheck.

I would only count 7 of those 27 as meeting or exceeding expectations, in my own personal job evaluation.

This is all fine and dandy but it tells us nothing. We also need to know (1) the bust rate of WRs taken in the later rounds, (2) the overall value of WRs taken in the 1st round and later rounds (to get a sense of the possible returns, because determingin risk without knowledge of returns is useless), (3) the bust rate of other positions taken in the 1st and later rounds, (4) the overall value of other positions etc., etc., etc...

I think you get the point, which is: Determining whether taking a WR in the 1st is wise or not would be a massive undertaking. I'm sure that scouting departments have actually done so, and the fact that they continue to draft WRs in the 1st round is indicative of their view of the results.

 

[lkelly]

the Boys have really never had 2 potential HOF WRs at the same time- with the exception of when we had Pearson and Hill.

How about Irvin and Jimmy Smith?

One could make the argument...

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Jones, Cedric
Clemons, Duane
Jon Harris
Gardener, Daryl
Jones, Marcus
Kenny Holmes
Renaldo Wynn
Andre Wadsworth
Jason Peter
Ebenezer Ekuban
Courtney Brown
Erik Flowers
Justin Smith
Jamal Reynolds
Wendell Bryant

These guys were all drafted in the first round between 1996-2003. There were thirty ends drafted between those years....the numbers aren't really all that different.

good research

Mike Williams
Jordan Gross
George Foster
Kwame Harris
Marc Colombo
Leonard Davis
Kenyatta Walker
Stockar McDougle
LJ Shelton
Aaron Gibson
Victor Riley
John Michels
Jamain Stephens
Andre Johnson

some 1st round OTs, also from '96-'03, out of 27 draft picks

we can safely assume that the draft is a crap-shoot for players picked in the 1st round for any position, anyway you slice it

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Does anyone even know what is being argued anymore?

Forget bust rates and look at it a different way: Say you hit on a player who becomes a top-5 or top-10 player in the league at his position. Would you rather have one of the best passrushers, defensive tackles, or left tackles? Or one of the best WRs?

 

[theogt]

Does anyone even know what is being argued anymore?

Forget bust rates and look at it a different way: Say you hit on a player who becomes a top-5 or top-10 player in the league at his position. Would you rather have one of the best passrushers, defensive tackles, or left tackles? Or one of the best WRs?

I've addressed this. You have to look at overall value of a position compared to the risk. There are a lot of variables here that I doubt anyone (of us posters) truly knows.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Does anyone even know what is being argued anymore?

Forget bust rates and look at it a different way: Say you hit on a player who becomes a top-5 or top-10 player in the league at his position. Would you rather have one of the best passrushers, defensive tackles, or left tackles? Or one of the best WRs?

I get what you're saying, but you have to look at the draft though, and who the prospects are, this year, the stock of NTs and LTs is very thin, you have 2 NTs who are worth 1st day picks, Alan Branch and Paul Soliai, only Branch being worth a 1st round pick, and then 2 LTs, Levi Brown and Joe Thomas, as being the only OTs worth a 1st round pick, while there are plenty of good, productive college pass-rushers who are worth a 1st round pick such as Jarvis Moss, Anthony Spencer, Gaines Adams, Jamaal Anderson, Adam Carriker etc, and my God, look at all the 1st round receiver candidates: Calvin Johnson, Robert Meachem, Dwayne Bowe, Ted Ginn Jr., Calvin Jarrett, heck, even Sidney Rice and Anthony Gonzalez may sneak into the 1st round

you don't just look at the value of the position, but the value of the players at those positions

 

[Chocolate Lab]

I've addressed this. You have to look at overall value of a position compared to the risk. There are a lot of variables here that I doubt anyone (of us posters) truly knows.

Well what fun is that?

There's no scientific answer anyway; it's all opinion. There are exceptions to every rule, of course, but I'll take the great OT, DE, DT, or even CB over the great WR pretty much every time.

 

[theogt]

Well what fun is that?

There's no scientific answer anyway; it's all opinion. There are exceptions to every rule, of course, but I'll take the great OT, DE, DT, or even CB over the great WR pretty much every time.

I'm not sure it's entirely opinion. I think there's enough data that you could make some very educated guesses, but I don't think any of us have the time or will to do such an analysis. The sad thing is that guys that are paid to do this kinda thinking (i.e., sports writers) don't think they have to either. That's probably excusable, though, because they're writing for the least common demoninator (i.e., Johnny Q. Public).

 

[AsthmaField]

I've said for a long time that if I were GM of a team, I'd like to go QB, OT, DE (in a 4-3), DT, OLB (in a 3-4), or CB in round 1. Those guys are just harder to come by and are more difficult to find outside of round 1 than WR, TE, C, G, FB, RB and S.

That doesn't mean I wouldn't draft one of those positions in the first round though. Landry, Peterson, Calvin Johnson... I'd jump on those three if I had the chance.

Still, everything else being equal, I'd try to go QB, OT, DE (in a 4-3), DT, OLB (in a 3-4), or CB in round 1.

If you break down the history, I think you'd find more of those positions going round 1 than you would WR, TE, C, G, FB, RB and S. With a note that the RB's going outside of round 1 is a relatively newer thing.

That's the way I see it.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

You don't seem to mind using it. Would you like me to add Reidel Anthony and Ike Hillard to that list?

Mark Anderson and Marques Colston are a fair comparison compare as far as their impact. Marques Colston made the Pro Bowl and was an elite WR. Mark Anderson didn't even start last year. He racked up some nice sack totals as a situational package player, usually late in the game in blow outs (8.5 of his 12 sacks came with a point margin over 15 points).

Since its so hard to evaluate "busts", I'll let you do it on your own subjective nature...

WR's drafted in the first round in the last 10 years from 1996-2003. I'll exclude 2003-2006, since I'll give guys three years of development before I call them busts.

Pete Warrick
David Boston
Troy Edwards
Tory Holt
Plaxico Burress
Travis Taylor
Sly Morris
RJ Soward
Kevin Dyson
Randy Moss
Marcus Nash
David Terrell
Koren Robinson
Rod Gardener
Santana Moss
Freddie Mitchell
Reggie Wayne
Dante Stallworth
Ashlie Lelei
Javon Walker
Ike Hilliard
Rediel Anthony
Yatil Green
Rae Carruth
Charles Rogers
Andre Johnson
Bryant Johnson

By my count 15 out of 27 that aren't even in the NFL anymore, and I'm being generous because I'm couting Koren Robinson as still in the league. I'm still leaving in guys who are career journeymen (Garndner), haven't lived up to expectations (Lelei), second stringers (Bryant Johnson) or guys playing on their 3rd team in three years (Stallworth). I'm talking 55% aren't even collecting an NFL paycheck.

I would only count 7 of those 27 as meeting or exceeding expectations, in my own personal job evaluation.

Great post. WR in the latter half of the first with the depth of this years class makes little sense to me. I would love to see a WR in the 2nd or third however.

 

[theogt]

Great post. WR in the latter half of the first with the depth of this years class makes little sense to me. I would love to see a WR in the 2nd or third however.

I've seen this argument quite a bit, but it makes little sense. Yes, there is quite a bit of depth at the WR position, but that doesn't mean any of the good receivers will last to our 2nd or 3rd round pick. Four or five will be taken in the 1st and 2-4 more will be taken by our 2nd pick.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Jones, Cedric
Clemons, Duane
Jon Harris
Gardener, Daryl
Jones, Marcus
Kenny Holmes
Renaldo Wynn
Andre Wadsworth
Jason Peter
Ebenezer Ekuban
Courtney Brown
Erik Flowers
Justin Smith
Jamal Reynolds
Wendell Bryant

These guys were all drafted in the first round between 1996-2003. There were thirty ends drafted between those years....the numbers aren't really all that different.

Thiose arent numbers, thats a list. You have to look at all the passrushers drafted and compare it to that list and see what you come up with. At first glance that looks to be half as many people that are busts as WRs and I know alot of DE/OLB types are drafted in round one.