ESPN MacMahon: Prediction of Pro Bowl Cowboys

[Go Big D!]

Witten is a liability in blocking and has trouble getting first downs? Where does this stuff come from?

From someone's posterior hole???

 

[perrykemp]

Where is all this "Rogers is have a better year then Romo" coming from? Their stats are almost identical.

Rogers has 5 more TDs, 1 less Interception, a Higher Completion %, More Yards, Higher Avg per Attempt, almost 5 more points on QB rating, 3 More Rushing TDs, and 200 more rushing yards.

Frankly, I don't see a single stat wher Romo is better than Rogers this year. Add to that Rogers won the head to head (which is meaningless) and I'd say it's pretty clear cut.

 

[Temo]

You may want to look at your left tackles again. You've selected a right tackle and the leading allower of sacks, hurries and QB hits in the NFL this season.

True on Stinchcomb, my fault on that. You could replace him with Jeff Backus or Flozell. I have no idea where you're getting your sacks, hurries, and QB hits stats from.

 

[Shinywalrus]

Yet you mentioned Bushrod for the saints when he has not been all that great the last few games? Not ragging on you here, I don't agree with your Witten assessment but was kind of shocked you would consider Bushrod as someone you would mention as a possible pro-bowler to name to oust Flo.

He was not one of the folks I would have named to the Pro Bowl, but just one of the others I mentioned belonged in the argument as a potential peer or superior this year to, say, Diehl and Flo.

Bushrod has been pretty darned solid for a lot of the year. I'm willing to give a guy a little bit of a pass for being embarassed by 94.

The real interesting point is, I think, that Flo, as an average tackle, is still in the top 6 or 7 in the NFC. He wouldn't even be a consideration in the AFC. An NFL-wide Pro Bowl list wouldn't include any NFC players at tackle.

 

[Shinywalrus]

True on Stinchcomb, my fault on that. You could replace him with Jeff Backus or Flozell. I have no idea where you're getting your sacks, hurries, and QB hits stats from.

Lots of game charters out there. Jordan Gross was solid as heck last year, but has been ***-awful horrible for most of this season.

 

[Shinywalrus]

Funny how people can watch the same games and come to completely different conclusions. Witten is a liability in blocking and has trouble getting first downs? Where does this stuff come from?

Witten has a lower First Down per Reception percentage than 28 tight ends in the NFC.

He has a lower Touchdown per Reception percentage than any tight end in the NFL with a touchdown reception.

These are not difficult statistics to find, but these are observations I'd made from watching games as well. Clearly, others have different opinions, but I feel like there are about 7 or 8 places we have excelled and Jason has excelled in past years that have been real weak spots for us this year.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Rogers has 5 more TDs, 1 less Interception, a Higher Completion %, More Yards, Higher Avg per Attempt, almost 5 more points on QB rating, 3 More Rushing TDs, and 200 more rushing yards.

Frankly, I don't see a single stat wher Romo is better than Rogers this year. Add to that Rogers won the head to head (which is meaningless) and I'd say it's pretty clear cut.

This post points it out pretty clearly IMO. The one thing I would probably differ in is the importance of the head to head. For each team, that game was huge because if the Packers lose it, they are probably out of the playoffs right now. Prior to that game, GB is coming off of two straight losses and there record is 4-4. Had they lost, they are 4-5 but instead, they reel off 7 straight wins and make the playoffs. On the other hand, had we won that game, we are now 11-4, NFC East Division Champs and probably the 2nd seed with a 1st Rd. bye. These two simple changes probably make Romo the shoe in for the Pro Bowl and Rogers the odd man out.

 

[brett2223]

Maybe i just have missed the plays your talking about but i have seen witten do some amazing blocking this season both in pass protection an running and i certainly wouldnt call him a liability IMO

Yeah seriously! Since when has witten become a liability???

 

[theogt]

Very polite of you.

Nonetheless, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that you do watch football, in which case you would recall that he made it in 2006 because NFC tight end play was horrendous, not because his lack of touchdown receptions was irrelevant. He is absolutely a red zone target, and tends to be toward the top in touchdowns in addition to his usually profligate yardage and reception totals.

Look at the 2006 NFC tight ends he had to compete with - Gonzalez was still in the AFC with Gates and Winslow, and Cooley, LJ Smith and Shockey were far less effective blockers and had horrible hands, dropping an absurd number of passes.

The Cowboys have a lower red zone conversion percentage than each of Atlanta, San Francisco and Minnesota.

The Cowboys are second to last in the NFL in 4th down conversion rates. They are mediocre in third down conversions despite a strong offense, worse than both Minnesota and Atlanta, but better than San Francisco, which has a below average offense otherwise.

A tight end must help his team in these situations, and Witten typically does. Even last year, Dallas was in the top 10 in Red Zone scoring %, third down conversions and fourth down conversions!

I'm not going to accuse you of ignorance, because I think Witten is a very high quality tight end that deserves consideration, and because it's a childish argumentation technique. I just think there are enough reasons in favor of other performers at the position in the NFC this year.

This is mind boggling. How can anyone be so dense? You're blaming Witten for the offensive statistics being less than spectacular when Witten's individual statistics are through the roof.

Witten is tied for 2nd in first downs. Yet Witten gets blamed for our failure to convert on 3rd and 4th downs?

Jason Witten is "a redzone target?" He averages 3.7 TDs per season. He has never been and never will be a redzone target. And yet he always has and always will be a no-brainer for the pro bowl.

Your statement was absurd. You got called out on it. Now own up to it. There is no "agree to disagree"; your position is objectively wrong.

 

[Doomsday]

Rogers has 5 more TDs, 1 less Interception, a Higher Completion %, More Yards, Higher Avg per Attempt, almost 5 more points on QB rating, 3 More Rushing TDs, and 200 more rushing yards.

Frankly, I don't see a single stat wher Romo is better than Rogers this year. Add to that Rogers won the head to head (which is meaningless) and I'd say it's pretty clear cut.

Unless you throw in the fact that the opponents Rodgers has faced have lost over 30 more games then the one's Romo has faced or the fact that the Packers are 2-4 vs quality opponents and have feasted on bottom tier teams all season.

 

[brett2223]

Witten has a lower First Down per Reception percentage than 28 tight ends in the NFC.

He has a lower Touchdown per Reception percentage than any tight end in the NFL with a touchdown reception.

These are not difficult statistics to find, but these are observations I'd made from watching games as well. Clearly, others have different opinions, but I feel like there are about 7 or 8 places we have excelled and Jason has excelled in past years that have been real weak spots for us this year.

You also have to think without T.O. this year and no number 1 wideout they were doubling witten... Now with miles in the fold they can't do that. But anyone with a football sense would know as soon as T.O. was released they were gonna double witten. That is what made Witten open as much as he was other teams paying to much attention to T.O. Now you can't tell me there is another tightend in football being double teamed like him!

 

[Temo]

Lots of game charters out there. Jordan Gross was solid as heck last year, but has been ***-awful horrible for most of this season.

Well, I disagree with your "lots of game charters" then. Gross has been middling in pass protection and absolutely dominant in run blocking.

 

[Temo]

Witten has a lower First Down per Reception percentage than 28 tight ends in the NFC.

He has a lower Touchdown per Reception percentage than any tight end in the NFL with a touchdown reception.

These are not difficult statistics to find, but these are observations I'd made from watching games as well. Clearly, others have different opinions, but I feel like there are about 7 or 8 places we have excelled and Jason has excelled in past years that have been real weak spots for us this year.

Witten is 2nd in total value in the NFC in receiving, and he's a way better blocker than Shiancoe.

He's had a down year compared to previous years, but not by much.

 

[Shinywalrus]

Yeah seriously! Since when has witten become a liability???

Just my view. I think if you watch the Commanders game in its entirety, you'll see a tight end who needs to get back to the basics that made him such a tremendously balanced player.

Look at MBIII's TD run. Great blocking by the O-Line, but Witten barely keeps McIntosh from working inside. Sets himself poorly, doesn't get in the pads right.

Look at the third quarter 4th and 1 stuff. Cornelius Griffin lets Bigg take a dive and shoves Witten into the dirt. Bizarrely poor effort. Meanwhile, Bennett drives back Alexander, a 285 lb DT, 3 yards off the LOS.

The worst is the 3rd and 1 in the 4th. Watch the little safety (I think it's Moore) creep up to the LOS. Witten takes a horrible angle, doesn't set, doesn't seal, and climbs onto the guy's back as he drills Barber short of the marker. Meanwhile, Bennett sets perfectly and makes a great block to open the hole that Witten's effort closed. (It would have stayed open if Barber got the ball closer to the LOS, but that's another issue!)

I don't know why this is controversial.

 

[theogt]

Just my view.

Yeah, we get that this opinion is just in your view. Because it's not in reality, or anyone else's opinion.

 

[Shinywalrus]

This is mind boggling. How can anyone be so dense? You're blaming Witten for the offensive statistics being less than spectacular when Witten's individual statistics are through the roof.

Witten is tied for 2nd in first downs. Yet Witten gets blamed for our failure to convert on 3rd and 4th downs?

Jason Witten is "a redzone target?" He averages 3.7 TDs per season. He has never been and never will be a redzone target. And yet he always has and always will be a no-brainer for the pro bowl.

Your statement was absurd. You got called out on it. Now own up to it. There is no "agree to disagree"; your position is objectively wrong.

That's just not true.

Fact: Witten's 1st downs per reception percentage is lower than ANY year in his career. Dramatically lower, in fact. It is 50%, compared with 61.7%, 58.3%, 57.8%, and 60.6% in his previous seasons.

Fact: Witten is a red zone target with an average of 4.8 TDs per year when you exclude this season, but importantly, those TDs have occurred at a substantially higher rate during actual RED ZONE possessions, a key distinction from catches by, say, Miles Austin, which tend to be longer plays that aren't reflected in the Cowboys deplorable red zone conversion rate.

Fact: Witten's Y/Target and Y/Reception are nearly a full yard lower than at any point in his career. His average yardage per reception this season is 10.8, compared with 11.8, 11.9, 11.8, and 11.5 in previous seasons.

The ONLY arguments you've put forth in favor of Witten's inclusion are yards and receptions, both of which are reasonable but a function of the offense and available weapons. The above, coupled with Gonzalez's addition to the NFC roster this season, makes Witten's candidacy very debatable.

It's simple - when Witten gets the ball, he's been less likely to turn it into a productive football play in 2009 than he has in 2008. Blocking is much tougher to quantify, but it's my opinion that his play has declined in 2009. That, of course, is something we can agree or disagree on.

You can't deny that YPC, YPA, 1st Downs / Reception, and TDs are all relevant. How can you say that the above arguments are objectively wrong?

 

[Shinywalrus]

Yeah, we get that this opinion is just in your view. Because it's not in reality, or anyone else's opinion.

I'm sorry, but I provided examples. What is it you're looking for? Please address them or stop with the snide comments. The only thing I've seen from you in this thread is the claim that yards and receptions are the only thing in the entire universe that matter.

I'm putting forth another differing argument, and I'm getting a bit weary of being respectful with you, to be honest.

Why can't Cowboys fans have an intelligent discussion about a player we love without deevolving into disrespectful and ad hominem discourse?

 

[Temo]

Shiny, you've stated how Witten has regressed from last year. Now prove to me that Gonzalez is better.

 

[Shinywalrus]

Witten is 2nd in total value in the NFC in receiving, and he's a way better blocker than Shiancoe.

He's had a down year compared to previous years, but not by much.

Historically I would agree with you on blocking, but I'm not seeing it this year.

In terms of FO's statistics, they include a great deal of system and QB accuracy bias in the value they assign. But as you see, they cluster Witten quite closely with Celek, Gonzalez and Shiancoe. Hence my confusion at why this is such a controversial topic. No one is arguing that Witten for Pro Bowl is lunacy, just that there are very good reasons why there are better candidates in the NFC. I don't see anything in the FO numbers to dispute that.

 

[Aikbach]

Romo will get in the Pro Bowl. Favre won´t show up in that game, he never does.

If Dallas is in the Super Bowl Romo had better be absent himself.