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Speed suddenly a question for Cal CB Hughes
A linebacker who weighs 255 pounds, runs the 40-yard dash in 4.4 seconds and has the upper-body strength to toss blockers has all of the tools to make an immediate impact. Add in coaches who believe they can help any player reach his potential, and it's easy to see why organizations place such a high premium on natural ability. But physical measurements clearly aren't everything, and there are those who feel that how fast a player runs on a track in sneakers isn't worth all the fuss.
Former NFL head coach Jerry Glanville mocked the combine workouts at one point, saying he didn't need to see guys paraded around in their underwear to know if they can play. It's a legitimate point considering the many workout warriors who have excelled at the combine but struggled in the NFL.
The problem is that the aforementioned views are too radical. Yes, the Mike Mamulas of the world make it clear that putting too much stock in a combine performance is dangerous, but it's important not to dismiss it completely. If an evaluator sees the combine as a tool and part of a larger process, it can prove valuable. Just ask the organizations in the market for a first-round corner this year.
A few weeks ago, this column discussed California CB Daymeion Hughes' strong performance at the Senior Bowl and how he showed better-than-expected man-to-man cover skills. In fact, it looked like he might have the skills to develop into a shut-down corner. However, a little more than a month later Hughes ran a pedestrian 4.65 in the 40 at the combine. Make no mistake, Hughes still has the toughness, instincts and big-play flair to start in the NFL. He made that clear during the season and at the Senior Bowl. The difference now, though, is that it's clear he's vulnerable to getting beat deep when left on an island, and he might be best suited to play in a Cover 2 scheme.
Football speed is certainly different than track speed. Guys like Jerry Rice have proven that. But you can bet Hughes' 40 time sent scouts back to the videotape to try to determine whether he truly does have NFL-caliber game speed. If they determine he doesn't, they can thank the combine for bringing that to light. It's just one part in the process, but it can be a very valuable part when you're talking about a first-round draft slot.
Florida QB Chris Leak
There is arguably no player who had more to prove during the interview process than Leak, because he had to convince organizations he can make the most of his limited natural ability. He should feel confident that he got his point across. Several teams came away from his interviews impressed by his strong grasp of the game and his competitiveness. Leak also moved well, showed a quick release and put excellent touch on his passes. With that in mind, the fact that he measured at less than six feet tall shouldn't hurt him as much as it would quarterbacks with a weaker résumé or intangibles.
Houston QB Kevin Kolb
Kolb didn't run as fast as he hoped to and had to field questions about whether or not he is a "system quarterback" because of a Houston scheme that simplifies the quarterback's reads. Only time will tell if he can adjust to a pro-style offense, but his ability to handle the situation in a mature manner reflects well on him. In addition, a strong showing in the three-cone drill makes the 40 time a lot easier to stomach. His ability to cut and accelerate suggests he'll be able to buy time in the pocket and make the first defender miss when he scrambles. As far as his arm is concerned, he was consistent and threw well on the run.
Pittsburgh QB Tyler Palko
There weren't many surprises from Palko. He ran well and showed good agility during drills. Unfortunately for him, many of the flaws he showed at the Senior Bowl resurfaced at the combine, and most notable among them is his release. Rather than releasing the ball over the top, his arm is sliding too far outside and down, causing the ball to come out at a lower point. Palko is just 6-foot-1, so it's reasonable to believe many of his passes will get tipped at the line of scrimmage. Of course, it doesn't help that Palko didn't turn heads with his arm strength or accuracy, either.
Florida State RB Lorenzo Booker
Booker had a lot to prove coming off a disappointing senior season and so-so Senior Bowl week, and the bottom line is he didn't get the job done. The most disheartening aspect of his showing in Indianapolis was his decision not to participate in any of the shuttle drills, which would have given him an opportunity to showcase his greatest strengths. Shuttles are designed to test the ability of a prospect to make sharp cuts and regain speed quickly. Though scouts are already well aware of Booker's ability to make defenders miss and run sharp routes, posting strong times in the shuttles could have helped him separate himself from some of the other backs in this class.
Miami RB Tyrone Moss
The combine couldn't have gone much worse for Moss, who posted a poor 40 time and chose not to participate in the 60-yard shuttle or three-cone drill because of a tight hamstring. Even more disturbing, he turned in some of the slowest 20-yard splits. That means he lacks the burst teams look for at his position. To be blunt, scouts should have walked away seeing him as a one-dimensional power back who can't turn the corner, make defenders miss or, right or wrong, stay healthy. That's not to say that there isn't a place for him in the NFL, but his path won't be as easy as it appeared to be two years ago.
Notre Dame WR Rhema McKnight
McKnight chose not to run the 40 at the RCA Dome, but that's likely because Notre Dame's Pro Day came less than a week later. After all, running on a familiar surface in familiar surroundings should improve a prospect's chances of success. However, McKnight ran slower than expected (4.56 and 4.53) and doesn't appear to have the jets necessary to stretch the field at the NFL level. On a more positive note, McKnight showed he can be a productive No. 3 or possibly No. 2 by positing quick shuttle times and flashing the ability to run crisp short-to-intermediate routes.
Fresno State WR Paul Williams
The combine showed that Williams is tall, strong and fast enough to make an impact in the NFL, but he didn't have great 20-yard splits, and that should raise a red flag for some scouts. Williams' slow start means he likely would need a clean release at the line to get open deep, because he doesn't accelerate quickly enough to recover when he gets slowed down. His inability to shift into a second gear also showed itself when he had problems running under passes thrown downfield.
Georgia TE Martrez Milner
Milner's combine was a microcosm of his career thus far. He did just enough to solidify himself as one of the top five or six tight ends in his class but not enough to warrant moving him up draft boards at this point. His 40 time showed teams he's fast enough to work the seam. He used the broad jump to show he has sufficient explosiveness. And he displayed sound upper body strength on the bench. In other words, he looked like he could develop into a decent starter or a quality backup, but most teams aren't willing to take a player that fits that description on the first day.
Texas OG Justin Blalock
Teams in need of a guard should have Blalock near the top of their wish lists following his showing at the combine. Blalock ran well and looked agile after weighing in at an imposing 320 pounds. His performance on the bench press also caught scouts eye: 40 reps at 225 pounds. Only Texas Tech's Manuel Ramirez matched that effort. Now teams should feel that much more comfortable with Blalock's ability to deliver a violent initial punch and lock into the defender's frame. These are key traits for a dominant NFL offensive lineman.
Tennessee OG Arron Sears
A right knee injury prevented Sears from running, and he benched the requisite 225 pounds a very average 21 times, so he clearly didn't wow scouts. However, teams shouldn't make too much of Sears' experience in Indianapolis, because he made such a positive impact on scouts and coaches during his strong Senior Bowl week. If he can get healthy and run well at Tennessee's pro day March 21, he should be considered one of the top offensive guard prospects come draft day.
Michigan DE/OLB LaMarr Woodley
On the Friday before the combine, Woodley aggravated the hamstring injury that forced him to miss the bulk of Senior Bowl week, and he chose not to work out as a result. It's an unfortunate turn of events for him, but it could be worse. There were rumors that Woodley had not been working out well and that he wouldn't have participated at the combine even if he had been healthy. The hamstring injury, if nothing else, provides a convenient excuse. Still, if he's to quash those rumors and stop his draft stock from slipping, he needs to have a strong pro day in Michigan on March 16.
West Virginia LB Kevin "Boo" McLee
McLee was not invited to the combine, but players who don't attend the combine get drafted every year, so don't ticket him for rookie free-agent status just yet. That said, he would obviously help his cause with a strong pro day March 8.
Auburn DC David Irons
Just because a prospect isn't being put through the paces on the field and in the weight room doesn't mean he isn't being evaluated. Teams take a close look at how a player handles the pressure and attention off the field, and Irons certainly made a splash with the press. He got more than a few laughs at the expense of his brother, running back Kenny Irons, and appeared certain of himself at all times. The good news is most teams want their corners to play with a swagger, because corners who lose their confidence and dwell on mistakes are ruthlessly picked on by offensive coordinators. The bad news is, teams are scared to death of drafting a player who could turn into a locker-room distraction.
Don't misunderstand, though. Irons didn't make any inflammatory comments, and what he said shouldn't help or hurt him too much, but it could have a slight impact. Irons didn't set the world on fire physically, looking average on the bench and during agility drills. On the other hand, he didn't hurt himself either, as he ran the 40 in 4.44 seconds.
Steve Muench has evaluated both NFL and college players for Scouts Inc. since 2002.
LINK
A linebacker who weighs 255 pounds, runs the 40-yard dash in 4.4 seconds and has the upper-body strength to toss blockers has all of the tools to make an immediate impact. Add in coaches who believe they can help any player reach his potential, and it's easy to see why organizations place such a high premium on natural ability. But physical measurements clearly aren't everything, and there are those who feel that how fast a player runs on a track in sneakers isn't worth all the fuss.
Former NFL head coach Jerry Glanville mocked the combine workouts at one point, saying he didn't need to see guys paraded around in their underwear to know if they can play. It's a legitimate point considering the many workout warriors who have excelled at the combine but struggled in the NFL.
The problem is that the aforementioned views are too radical. Yes, the Mike Mamulas of the world make it clear that putting too much stock in a combine performance is dangerous, but it's important not to dismiss it completely. If an evaluator sees the combine as a tool and part of a larger process, it can prove valuable. Just ask the organizations in the market for a first-round corner this year.
A few weeks ago, this column discussed California CB Daymeion Hughes' strong performance at the Senior Bowl and how he showed better-than-expected man-to-man cover skills. In fact, it looked like he might have the skills to develop into a shut-down corner. However, a little more than a month later Hughes ran a pedestrian 4.65 in the 40 at the combine. Make no mistake, Hughes still has the toughness, instincts and big-play flair to start in the NFL. He made that clear during the season and at the Senior Bowl. The difference now, though, is that it's clear he's vulnerable to getting beat deep when left on an island, and he might be best suited to play in a Cover 2 scheme.
Football speed is certainly different than track speed. Guys like Jerry Rice have proven that. But you can bet Hughes' 40 time sent scouts back to the videotape to try to determine whether he truly does have NFL-caliber game speed. If they determine he doesn't, they can thank the combine for bringing that to light. It's just one part in the process, but it can be a very valuable part when you're talking about a first-round draft slot.
Florida QB Chris Leak
There is arguably no player who had more to prove during the interview process than Leak, because he had to convince organizations he can make the most of his limited natural ability. He should feel confident that he got his point across. Several teams came away from his interviews impressed by his strong grasp of the game and his competitiveness. Leak also moved well, showed a quick release and put excellent touch on his passes. With that in mind, the fact that he measured at less than six feet tall shouldn't hurt him as much as it would quarterbacks with a weaker résumé or intangibles.
Houston QB Kevin Kolb
Kolb didn't run as fast as he hoped to and had to field questions about whether or not he is a "system quarterback" because of a Houston scheme that simplifies the quarterback's reads. Only time will tell if he can adjust to a pro-style offense, but his ability to handle the situation in a mature manner reflects well on him. In addition, a strong showing in the three-cone drill makes the 40 time a lot easier to stomach. His ability to cut and accelerate suggests he'll be able to buy time in the pocket and make the first defender miss when he scrambles. As far as his arm is concerned, he was consistent and threw well on the run.
Pittsburgh QB Tyler Palko
There weren't many surprises from Palko. He ran well and showed good agility during drills. Unfortunately for him, many of the flaws he showed at the Senior Bowl resurfaced at the combine, and most notable among them is his release. Rather than releasing the ball over the top, his arm is sliding too far outside and down, causing the ball to come out at a lower point. Palko is just 6-foot-1, so it's reasonable to believe many of his passes will get tipped at the line of scrimmage. Of course, it doesn't help that Palko didn't turn heads with his arm strength or accuracy, either.
Florida State RB Lorenzo Booker
Booker had a lot to prove coming off a disappointing senior season and so-so Senior Bowl week, and the bottom line is he didn't get the job done. The most disheartening aspect of his showing in Indianapolis was his decision not to participate in any of the shuttle drills, which would have given him an opportunity to showcase his greatest strengths. Shuttles are designed to test the ability of a prospect to make sharp cuts and regain speed quickly. Though scouts are already well aware of Booker's ability to make defenders miss and run sharp routes, posting strong times in the shuttles could have helped him separate himself from some of the other backs in this class.
Miami RB Tyrone Moss
The combine couldn't have gone much worse for Moss, who posted a poor 40 time and chose not to participate in the 60-yard shuttle or three-cone drill because of a tight hamstring. Even more disturbing, he turned in some of the slowest 20-yard splits. That means he lacks the burst teams look for at his position. To be blunt, scouts should have walked away seeing him as a one-dimensional power back who can't turn the corner, make defenders miss or, right or wrong, stay healthy. That's not to say that there isn't a place for him in the NFL, but his path won't be as easy as it appeared to be two years ago.
Notre Dame WR Rhema McKnight
McKnight chose not to run the 40 at the RCA Dome, but that's likely because Notre Dame's Pro Day came less than a week later. After all, running on a familiar surface in familiar surroundings should improve a prospect's chances of success. However, McKnight ran slower than expected (4.56 and 4.53) and doesn't appear to have the jets necessary to stretch the field at the NFL level. On a more positive note, McKnight showed he can be a productive No. 3 or possibly No. 2 by positing quick shuttle times and flashing the ability to run crisp short-to-intermediate routes.
Fresno State WR Paul Williams
The combine showed that Williams is tall, strong and fast enough to make an impact in the NFL, but he didn't have great 20-yard splits, and that should raise a red flag for some scouts. Williams' slow start means he likely would need a clean release at the line to get open deep, because he doesn't accelerate quickly enough to recover when he gets slowed down. His inability to shift into a second gear also showed itself when he had problems running under passes thrown downfield.
Georgia TE Martrez Milner
Milner's combine was a microcosm of his career thus far. He did just enough to solidify himself as one of the top five or six tight ends in his class but not enough to warrant moving him up draft boards at this point. His 40 time showed teams he's fast enough to work the seam. He used the broad jump to show he has sufficient explosiveness. And he displayed sound upper body strength on the bench. In other words, he looked like he could develop into a decent starter or a quality backup, but most teams aren't willing to take a player that fits that description on the first day.
Texas OG Justin Blalock
Teams in need of a guard should have Blalock near the top of their wish lists following his showing at the combine. Blalock ran well and looked agile after weighing in at an imposing 320 pounds. His performance on the bench press also caught scouts eye: 40 reps at 225 pounds. Only Texas Tech's Manuel Ramirez matched that effort. Now teams should feel that much more comfortable with Blalock's ability to deliver a violent initial punch and lock into the defender's frame. These are key traits for a dominant NFL offensive lineman.
Tennessee OG Arron Sears
A right knee injury prevented Sears from running, and he benched the requisite 225 pounds a very average 21 times, so he clearly didn't wow scouts. However, teams shouldn't make too much of Sears' experience in Indianapolis, because he made such a positive impact on scouts and coaches during his strong Senior Bowl week. If he can get healthy and run well at Tennessee's pro day March 21, he should be considered one of the top offensive guard prospects come draft day.
Michigan DE/OLB LaMarr Woodley
On the Friday before the combine, Woodley aggravated the hamstring injury that forced him to miss the bulk of Senior Bowl week, and he chose not to work out as a result. It's an unfortunate turn of events for him, but it could be worse. There were rumors that Woodley had not been working out well and that he wouldn't have participated at the combine even if he had been healthy. The hamstring injury, if nothing else, provides a convenient excuse. Still, if he's to quash those rumors and stop his draft stock from slipping, he needs to have a strong pro day in Michigan on March 16.
West Virginia LB Kevin "Boo" McLee
McLee was not invited to the combine, but players who don't attend the combine get drafted every year, so don't ticket him for rookie free-agent status just yet. That said, he would obviously help his cause with a strong pro day March 8.
Auburn DC David Irons
Just because a prospect isn't being put through the paces on the field and in the weight room doesn't mean he isn't being evaluated. Teams take a close look at how a player handles the pressure and attention off the field, and Irons certainly made a splash with the press. He got more than a few laughs at the expense of his brother, running back Kenny Irons, and appeared certain of himself at all times. The good news is most teams want their corners to play with a swagger, because corners who lose their confidence and dwell on mistakes are ruthlessly picked on by offensive coordinators. The bad news is, teams are scared to death of drafting a player who could turn into a locker-room distraction.
Don't misunderstand, though. Irons didn't make any inflammatory comments, and what he said shouldn't help or hurt him too much, but it could have a slight impact. Irons didn't set the world on fire physically, looking average on the bench and during agility drills. On the other hand, he didn't hurt himself either, as he ran the 40 in 4.44 seconds.
Steve Muench has evaluated both NFL and college players for Scouts Inc. since 2002.
LINK
