ESPN Power Index: 2024 projection, Super chances (Cowboys rank 4th, behind 49ers, Chiefs and Lions)

[big dog cowboy]

Amassing wins in the regular season against crap opponents is all great but doesn't really mean anything. No one look at the Cowboys and thinks that they can hang with teams like the Chiefs and the 9-ers.

That sounds great and all but has nothing to do with the post I was replying too.

 

[HungryLion]

Good for you.

Thanks Stephen

 

[MikeT22]

Trust me. They are good.

lol

 

[Cowfan75Lives]

The question is not if we improved (we haven't); the question is how much has the rest of the East improved. If the No-Names and Giants still stink, we have an outside chance at hanging around the rim. If they don't, we're looking at a top 5 draft pick in 2025.

 

[RoboQB]

Pollyannish fans are the worst.

"12 wins... maybe, eventually, one day they'll win a playoff game".

Dallas had about a decade worth of luck and karma happen in the final month of the '23 season. The Eagles collapse, the ending of the Lions game, etc. Then they threw it all away in the 1st quarter of their home playoff game.
ESPN knows what everyone else in media knows. Keep Dallas in every storyline. NFL Network actually used to have an unwritten rule of mentioning the Cowboys at the top of every hour. (Kurt Warner blurted it out on air.)

 

[rambo2]

The question is not if we improved (we haven't); the question is how much has the rest of the East improved. If the No-Names and Giants still stink, we have an outside chance at hanging around the rim. If they don't, we're looking at a top 5 draft pick in 2025.

Double digit wins.

 

[triplets_93]

My goodness........talking about wide-margin, this projection vs Cowboy fans (LOL)

• Is our talent level much better than Cowboy fans wanna believe?
• Is it possible the lack of free agent signings ( participation) won't have as much neg impact as many believe?

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...-projections-super-bowl-chances-playoff-draft

NFL Football Power Index: 2024 projections, Super Bowl chances​

The San Francisco 49ers might have lost Super Bowl LVIII to the Kansas City Chiefs, but they enter 2024 as the best team in football and favorites to win Super Bowl LIX, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). The 49ers' edge in quality over the Baltimore Ravens and Chiefs is narrow, but because San Francisco plays in the weaker NFC, its championship chances (16%) are notably higher than any other club's.

The Football Power Index is our ratings and projection model for NFL teams. In the preseason, the model's overall predictive ratings are based primarily on win totals from ESPN BET in conjunction with each team's schedule -- along with factors such as the strength difference between a team's starting and backup quarterback and a revamped special teams rating based primarily on new predictive kicker ratings. We use these team ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, creating our projections.

During the season, ratings evolve based on how teams perform on offense, defense and special teams -- along with quarterback performance and changes. In addition to updated ratings, game predictions are also affected by home-field advantage and rest differentials.

Let's dive into the 2024 season.........

The thing is, you have get to the SB, to have a chance to win the SB.

 

[triplets_93]

It's that time of the year again. lol

I think I'd like for Jason Garrett to come back. I enjoyed not going deep in the playoffs more with Jason than I do with Fat Mike. Jason's pathetic losses were more satisfying somehow.

 

[Fastpitch Dad]

You don’t think the defense improves with Bland getting better, Diggs returning, Kendricks at linebacker? There’s room to improve.

I hope so, I'm tired of not advancing further.

I really think Kendricks helps a lot, but a bit concerned about Diggs coming back at his usual self. And I hope he is done making business decisions on tackling now that he's paid.

Also hope the new chubby kid can help in the middle.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

the question is how much has the rest of the East improved.

This is a fair question .........but even if they are improved, is it enough? The Giants improved a bit but by their admission, they don't trust Daniel Jones. The Commanders have a rookie QB....nuff said. As for the Eagles, they are loaded, but they have two new coordinators with different schemes. I think they will go as far as Hurts can take them.....the league has figured out, that the more you take away his legs, the less effective he is. Notice a recent comment from Jordan Davis regarding new DC Vic Fangio.......we will see how it works out but I have read nuggets he has some problems communicating with today's players and young coaches. It's one of the reasons why he left the Dolphins. But the end you have to favor the Eagles to win the division.

As for the Cowboys........as stated in a few threads, we are still a top-10 team but injuries will be the key to our season.



Not the least of which has been Vic Fangio taking over as defensive coordinator.
It's an addition to the coaching staff that will not just change the Eagles' defensive scheme, but the tenor of the squad altogether.
"No bull----. There's no bull----," Eagles defensive tackle Jordan Davis said Thursday when asked for the difference between Fangio and previous Philly DCs. "I hope y'all can bleep that out. It's really no B.S. with him. It's straight ball. Some people like it.

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

I think I'd like for Jason Garrett to come back. I enjoyed not going deep in the playoffs more with Jason than I do with Fat Mike. Jason's pathetic losses were more satisfying somehow.

It was about the same.

 

[Vtwin]

You said they were top contenders last year due to “experts”…..

Yet, most had them at best 3rd in the NFC and behind Chiefs, Bills, Bengals……

3rd best isn't considered a top contender? LOL

You're just arguing to argue at this point.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

3rd best isn't considered a top contender? LOL

You're just arguing to argue at this point.

So the 6th best team in the NFL is a top contender? It’s whatever it seems you’re back peddling when you resort to the “you’re just arguing to argue” line.

 

[removed_20241105]

Found another hater. Oh boy.

Hater?
How adorable.

 

[Vtwin]

So the 6th best team in the NFL is a top contender? It’s whatever it seems you’re back peddling when you resort to the “you’re just arguing to argue” line.

So just to be clear, and for the record for all to see, your position is that the Cowboys being considered as legitimate, (aka top) contenders to compete for the SB going into each of at least the last two seasons if not the last three, is not accurate?

You're really willing to put that in writing?

Imagine thinking the widely predicted top 3 team in the conference is not thought of as a legitimate contender in a pre-season ranking.

 

[cmoney23]

My goodness........talking about wide-margin, this projection vs Cowboy fans (LOL)

• Is our talent level much better than Cowboy fans wanna believe?
• Is it possible the lack of free agent signings ( participation) won't have as much neg impact as many believe?

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...-projections-super-bowl-chances-playoff-draft

NFL Football Power Index: 2024 projections, Super Bowl chances​

The San Francisco 49ers might have lost Super Bowl LVIII to the Kansas City Chiefs, but they enter 2024 as the best team in football and favorites to win Super Bowl LIX, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). The 49ers' edge in quality over the Baltimore Ravens and Chiefs is narrow, but because San Francisco plays in the weaker NFC, its championship chances (16%) are notably higher than any other club's.

The Football Power Index is our ratings and projection model for NFL teams. In the preseason, the model's overall predictive ratings are based primarily on win totals from ESPN BET in conjunction with each team's schedule -- along with factors such as the strength difference between a team's starting and backup quarterback and a revamped special teams rating based primarily on new predictive kicker ratings. We use these team ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, creating our projections.

During the season, ratings evolve based on how teams perform on offense, defense and special teams -- along with quarterback performance and changes. In addition to updated ratings, game predictions are also affected by home-field advantage and rest differentials.

Let's dive into the 2024 season.........

Thanks for sharing! My first instinct when I see something like this is... "What did they predict last year? How accurate was that?"

I went back and looked. Superbowl:

1	Eagles	14%
2	Chiefs	13%
3	49ers	11%
4	Bills	9%
5	Bengals	9%
6	Cowboys	7%
7	Lions	4%

Chiefs and 9ers in the bowl, and honestly, if not for one of the biggest collapses in recent memory from the Eagles they kinda nailed it.

SIDE NOTE: I find it funny, the Eagles were 10-1 at one point and completely collapsed with an embarrassing loss to the Bucs (The same Bucs team we throttled the year before, with Tom Brady at the helm, that doesn't even count as a win in most haters eyes) and no one even talks about them. SMH

 

[Proof]

We are better than a lot of people in here want to admit

Free agency won’t have a negative impact to the extent many believe.

We are not the 4th best team in the nfl. We are closer to 7 or 8. ESPN is clueless - Vegas odds are a bit more accurate.

it's factoring in strength of conference. afc teams have to go through a gauntlet lowering their odds. article doesn't say they are the 4th best team.

 

[Bobhaze]

These “index predictions” are mostly designed to stir interest in the upcoming season more than intended to be an actual accurate prediction.

More than anything else for me, it’s hard to “believe” in this team as currently constructed. Can they surprise me and be better than what I see on paper? Yes of course. And I hope that’s the case. But if I’m being honest I don’t see this team now as being better than the team that got crushed at home in the wild card round last year. Hope I’m wrong.

 

[JBS]

it's factoring in strength of conference. afc teams have to go through a gauntlet lowering their odds. article doesn't say they are the 4th best team.

That’s fine. We don’t have the 4th best chance no matter how you slice it

 

[Hadenough]

I use to look at this nonsense a few years ago and it changes dramatically week to week. It is only used for people who might want to bet. That being said the Packers and Lions have a better chance of getting to the SB because they don't fold like a chair when they play the 49ers.