ESPN: Pro Football Prospectus 2008 projects Cowboys to slip *Merge*

[BDAWG]

My apologies if this has been posted.

I was just watching First Take and they had an interview with the author of Pro Football Prospectus 2008. Has anybody read this? Apparently they projected the Cowboys to win approx. 6 games.
They also project the Eagles to win the division.

Anyway, I was curious if anyone had the 2007 version of this book and if it projected us to 13-3.


Here's a link to an article about this ridiculous notion:
http://www.democratandchronicle.com...ID=/20080720/SPORTS0101/807200330/1007/sports

 

[Disturbed]

Are you sure this was not a re-run from a few years back....because that makes no sense this year.

I could see us winning fewer games due to our special teams poor play...but not significantly less.

 

[bobtheflob]

It's 8 wins actually. Six wins was for last year. So based on how far off they were a year ago, we should win 15 games this year!

 

[Chocolate Lab]

It's this year... Looks like it's based on (hoped for) injuries and TO and Pacman ruining our chemistry.



July 20, 2008

'Pro Football Prospectus 2008' projects Cowboys to slip

If you're a pro football fan, I highly recommend Pro Football Prospectus 2008 as the most informative and entertaining NFL read you can find at a newsstand or bookstore today. It is 490 pages jammed with stats, facts, analysis and informed opinions.

Warning to Dallas Cowboys fans: you won't like what you read.

One of my favorite features of Pro Football Prospectus is the "mean projection" number of wins for each of the 32 teams. The editors "play" thousands of simulated games and factor in assorted other things to come up with a "mean wins projection" for each team.

For the 2008 season, the team projected to slip the most is Dallas. The Cowboys, 13-3 last season, have a mean projection of 8.1 wins this year. Among other things, the editors point out the amazing injury-free run the Cowboys have enjoyed in recent seasons, the aging offensive line and the possibility of poor team chemistry with Adam Jones and Terrell Owens in the same locker room.

Pro Football Prospectus 2007 had a mean projection of 6.4 wins for last year's Cowboys. The editors had doubts about new coach Wade Phillips, Tony Romo's late-season slump in 2006, and the probability of more injuries. The editors are either courageous or stubborn to project an NFL-high drop of 4.9 wins for this season.

Here are the Pro Football Prospectus 2008 mean projections for victories this season, sorted by division. The figures listed are the mean wins projection for 2007 in parentheses, last year's actual record, and the 2008 mean projection in bold face:

NFC EAST

Philadelphia (11.0) 8-8 11.7 wins in 2008

NY Giants (7.0) 10-6 9.6 wins in 2008

Dallas (6.4) 13-3 8.1 wins in 2008

Washington (8.2) 9-7 6.9 wins in 2008

NFC NORTH

Green Bay (9.5) 13-3 11.5 wins in 2008

Minnesota (7.5) 8-8 10.1 wins in 2008

Chicago (8.3) 7-9 6.9 wins in 2008

Detroit (7.1) 7-9 4.3 wins in 2008

NFC SOUTH

Tampa Bay (9.0) 9-7 10.3 wins in 2008

Carolina (8.9) 7-9 9.5 wins in 2008

New Orleans (7.4) 7-9 8.3 wins in 2008

Atlanta (7.6) 4-12 3.5 wins in 2008 (fewest in NFL)

NFC WEST

Seattle (8.0) 10-6 10.5 wins in 2008

Arizona (6.0) 8-8 7.5 wins in 2008

San Francisco (8.1) 5-11 5.3 wins in 2008

St. Louis (5.8) 3-13 5.1 wins in 2008

AFC EAST

New England (12.1) 16-0 12.8 wins in 2008 (most in NFL)

Buffalo (6.2) 7-9 7.2 wins in 2008

NY Jets (8.8) 4-12 7.2 wins in 2008

Miami (5.6) 1-15 5.5 wins in 2008

AFC NORTH

Baltimore (9.0) 5-11 8.5 wins in 2008

Pittsburgh (9.1) 10-6 7.2 wins in 2008

Cincinnati (8.7) 7-9 6.8 wins in 2008

Cleveland (7.6) 10-6 6.3 wins in 2008

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis (8.8) 13-3 9.9 wins in 2008

Jacksonville (11.8) 11-5 9.2 wins in 2008

Houston (6.0) 8-8 8.9 wins in 2008

Tennessee (6.1) 10-6 6.7 wins in 2008

AFC WEST

San Diego (8.6) 11-5 11 wins in 2008

Denver (8.7) 7-9 8.7 wins in 2008

Kansas City (5.2) 4-12 6.6 wins in 2008

Oakland (6.5) 4-12 3.9 wins in 2008

My takes: The editors must be counting on a big comeback by Philadelphia QB Donovan McNabb. This is the first year I have doubts about him. His mobility made him special. Now he's ordinary. ... If Dallas doesn't win at least 10 games, I'll be shocked. ... The editors (and many other NFL observers) like Tampa Bay more than I do. ... Seattle is very fortunate to be in the NFC West. ... 7.2 for the Bills is reasonable to me. I think they'll have 7 to 9 wins. ... Cleveland has a difficult schedule, but the projected 6.3 is too low. 8-8 wouldn't surprise me. ... Tennessee is quite likely to slip and I can't see Houston better than .500. ... San Diego should go 6-0 in the division and win at least 12 games.

 

[Disturbed]

They have a point on the injury front, we are seeing this already in preseason, so that may be an issue this year. And our special teams really suck (thanks coach Read). Each of these could lower our win total a little -- but I don't see us slipping to 8-8. And our team should be a little more talented this year...

I don't really care if we go 10-6 or 14-2, as long as we win late in the season and in the playoffs when it counts. Coach Landry used to say that if you can't win in December then the season is over (not good enough to win in the playoffs) and this has held true for the past couple of years.

 

[NoLuv4Jerry]

Again, I will keep saying it...if this defense plays better than it did last year (and it should)...this offense will score 24 - 30 points a game (depending on the quality of the opposition). That is enough to win 10 - 12 games a year. If this offense score 21 - 24 points a game against UPPER ECEHLON teams, and that is not good enough to win....then this team has no chance of being anything other than it was last year.

 

[Zimmy Lives]

My apologies if this has been posted.

I was just watching First Take and they had an interview with the author of Pro Football Prospectus 2008. Has anybody read this? Apparently they projected the Cowboys to win approx. 6 games.
They also project the Eagles to win the division.

Anyway, I was curious if anyone had the 2007 version of this book and if it projected us to 13-3.


Here's a link to an article about this ridiculous notion:
http://www.democratandchronicle.com...ID=/20080720/SPORTS0101/807200330/1007/sports

What does Magic 8-Ball say?

 

[zeromaster]

If these boys bet the way they write then the street corner beggars are in for some company pretty soon.

 

[TheCount]

Are people still playing the locker room cancer card with T.O.? Holy crap.

And now Pacman is a locker room cancer as well?

I don't see is winning 13 again, but as long as we make the playoffs, I could really care less when the final regular season record is.

 

[bbgun]

8-8? I guess we can all go home now. See ya next year, gents.

 

[LucaBrasi]

Projecting Baltimore with more wins than us? Yeah right.

 

[BDAWG]

It's 8 wins actually. Six wins was for last year. So based on how far off they were a year ago, we should win 15 games this year!

Oh ok, I didn't realize the 6 wins was from last year. Well that answers my question. The guy was pretty much talking out his ***.

He did say the only reason they were projecting the Cowboys slip was because of the lack of depth through out the team, and the fact he thinks TO will be getting hurt. Which would really hurt us if that happened.

 

[theebs]

these are the people who put out stats which are shoved down our throat by many on here on every issue.

Glorified bloggers. I always see them citing game film. I still have never seen them say if it is game film or the tv broadcast.

Are any of the guys that put that out even former scouts or nfl people?

Obviously as you can tell I put pretty much nothing into those stat books.

 

[Zaxor]

WHAT???? injury free....crap are they talking about

last year alone we lost out starting NT for the year in the very 1st game
our 2nd WR was missing the entire year.. we lost our starting FB for over half the season we lost both of our starting CB for a good portion of the year along with injuries severe enough to miss games from TO & Andre

As you see we had our fair share of injuries...now were there teams out there that lost more... sure there was... but I am guessing Dallas falls right around the average in the league...

 

[Hostile]

8-8? I guess we can all go home now. See ya next year, gents.

Don't forget to send a Christmas card. See you at my parole hearing in January.

 

[TwentyOne]

It's 8 wins actually. Six wins was for last year. So based on how far off they were a year ago, we should win 15 games this year!

actually i would calculate it this way:

First i put the predicted wins for us relativ to our real wins.

6/13 = 0,46.

Second i constitue that this ratio will be constant as long as the people who made/make the prediction are the same.

Now that means

8/x = 0,46

So inevitably x must be

x = 8 / 0,46 = 17,4.

BINGO! This means we are up for a perfect season.



ps: ok i think those 1.4 wins stem from our mediocre preseason :laugh1:

 

[Boyzmamacita]

They have a point on the injury front, we are seeing this already in preseason, so that may be an issue this year.

What point do they have? Last year, we had injuries to Ellis, T-New, Henry, TO and Terry Glenn. Every one of them is integral to this team and every one of them missed some game time, yet we were 13-3 anyway. The notion that we were lucky on the injury front is bull. Just like any other team, we can't withstand long-term injuries to certain players (Romo, TO, Ware, etc.), but that applies to every team, not just Dallas.

 

[theebs]

WHAT???? injury free....crap are they talking about

last year alone we lost out starting NT for the year in the very 1st game
our 2nd WR was missing the entire year.. we lost our starting FB for over half the season we lost both of our starting CB for a good portion of the year along with injuries severe enough to miss games from TO & Andre

As you see we had our fair share of injuries...now were there teams out there that lost more... sure there was... but I am guessing Dallas falls right around the average in the league...

You have to put it in perspective.

To bloggers and national writers the team is only suffering from injuries when romo, owens, witten or ware are hurt.

They probably dont know the backups anyway, so why would they care if they are hurt.

 

[Boyzmamacita]

You have to put it in perspective.

To bloggers and national writers the team is only suffering from injuries when romo, owens, witten or ware are hurt.

They probably dont know the backups anyway, so why would they care if they are hurt.

See my post above yours. We had plenty of injuries to starters, even if they weren't household names. Don't forget Fergie, who basically missed the whole season.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

As has been discussed in other threads, according to PFP they consider Dallas to be the least injured team in the NFL over the years. Thus, they use the logic called "gambler's fallacy" which states that since the Cowboys have had so few injuries over the past few years, they are more likely due for a lot of injuries to make up the difference. It's sort of like flipping a coin 10 times and on the first four flips you get heads and reasoning that you're more likely to get tails on the next flip to make up the difference. That's actually incorrect, you chance of hitting tails on that next flip is still 50%. And the same applies to the Cowboys, their likelihood of getting injuries is still the same as it ever was.

Also from reading PFP, their logic behind injuries is a bit weird. Essentially it seems that they believe a player missing 1 game is no big deal, but also a player missing an entire year due to injury isn't that big of a deal. Their logic appears to be that a player missing 3-6 games is more devastating than say Jason Ferguson missing the entire year. It's kind of the same thing we've been experiencing where for some reason people tend to forget that Ferguson was lost after week 1 and Glenn practically did not play all year long and Dallas still turned in a 13-3 season.

They also have a hard time gauging Romo because they base a lot of their player projections on past players with similar profiles. But Romo is a bit of a different type of QB since he was a 4 year project that was still set up to be the franchise QB.

I've studied a lot of the teams since 2000 and Dallas should be pretty decent as long as Romo stays healthy or unless his play dips for some odd reason. Usually good teams that have a good, young QB like Romo only dip when he gets injured or if the O-Line gets banged up badly and then he winds up getting decked and playing most of the season hurt. So the Kosier injury gives reason for some concern, but since he's a guard and not a tackle (particularly a left tackle), odds are Romo will be fine.

Also, PFP predicted the Eagles to go to the Super Bowl this year as well. Which is funny since this team has two aging offensive tackles that never get injured, a QB who is officially injury prone, and a tailback that they rely on who has been banged up over the years.






YAKUZA