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Coaches and evaluators around the league offered diverse perspectives and predictions during conversations at the combine in Indianapolis.
Three votes for a QB at No. 4
A general manager, salary-cap manager and personnel director all thought the Cowboys should or would select a quarterback fourth overall.
"My gut says QB because they know Romo is coming to the end," the GM said. "They are hoping this is the last chance they get to take one early. My gut says they will like one of the two between [Jared] Goff and [Carson] Wentz, and they will take one and he will become the heir apparent."
This GM did not see a defensive player so dominant that the Cowboys would absolutely have to take him with the fourth pick. He noted that two of the top pass-rushers, Noah Spence and Joey Bosa, were defensive ends on the left side of the formation. Top rushers traditionally play the other side. "That says something in itself," the GM said.
The salary-cap manager thought there was roughly a 75 percent chance the Cowboys would select a quarterback with one of their top two draft picks. Within that, he saw the odds as about 50-50 that Dallas would take the quarterback fourth overall. This cap manager also thought the unrestricted free-agent market for quarterbacks could be more interesting than usual in 2016 with Brock Osweiler among the players potentially reaching the market. That could affect the draft.
The personnel director acknowledged the Cowboys' need for defensive help, but he also thought Dallas would be foolish to pass up a true franchise quarterback. The question, of course, is whether Dallas will rate any of the available quarterbacks highly enough to select one so early. Can an organization afford to park a highly drafted quarterback on the bench for multiple seasons?
"If you are Jerry Jones, yes, you can," the personnel director said, noting that Jones, as the Cowboys' owner, enjoys job security no other GM can surpass. "I could see Goff going to Cleveland and Dallas taking Wentz. Romo is not a china doll, but he is getting to that point. You saw how bad they were without him -- it was tough to win a game."
Counterpoint: No QB at No. 4
Romo's contract carries a $20.8 million cap charge consuming 13.4 percent of the newly established $155,270,000 allotment. This huge financial commitment to Romo separates the Cowboys from the teams that used top-five selections for quarterbacks 19 times in the past 15 drafts. Those teams' highest-priced veteran quarterbacks carried cap charges between $395,914 and $5.75 million. None of those charges consumed more than 5.4 percent of the salary cap.
Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers and JaMarcus Russell combined for only three rookie starts as top-five overall picks since 2001. Vick's Atlanta Falcons had veteran Chris Chandler signed to a deal that counted $4.1 million against the cap (4.7 percent of the allotment). Palmer's Cincinnati Bengals had Jon Kitna ($3.6 million cap hit, 5.4 percent). Rivers' San Diego Chargers had Drew Brees ($2.4 million, 4.1 percent). Russell's Oakland Raiders had Daunte Culpepper ($3.2 million, 3.8 percent).
None of the teams using top-five picks for quarterbacks was all-in on a veteran the way Dallas is all-in on Romo. That will make the Cowboys much more reluctant to use such a high choice for a player who ideally would not play soon.
"I really don't think they are going to take a quarterback because they will realize Goff is the only one and he is maybe gone by then," an offensive assistant coach said. "If they really need a quarterback, I bet they try to trade back. I doubt they take one in the second round because they won't get the one they want."
A veteran contract negotiator thought the Cowboys would be much more likely to sign a veteran backup than target another position with the fourth pick. "They are not willing to throw out Romo just yet," this negotiator said. "Now, would that stop them from paying $5 million for [a backup]? No."
http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2016/in...y-whether-cowboys-draft-quarterback-early-nfl
Three votes for a QB at No. 4
A general manager, salary-cap manager and personnel director all thought the Cowboys should or would select a quarterback fourth overall.
"My gut says QB because they know Romo is coming to the end," the GM said. "They are hoping this is the last chance they get to take one early. My gut says they will like one of the two between [Jared] Goff and [Carson] Wentz, and they will take one and he will become the heir apparent."
This GM did not see a defensive player so dominant that the Cowboys would absolutely have to take him with the fourth pick. He noted that two of the top pass-rushers, Noah Spence and Joey Bosa, were defensive ends on the left side of the formation. Top rushers traditionally play the other side. "That says something in itself," the GM said.
The salary-cap manager thought there was roughly a 75 percent chance the Cowboys would select a quarterback with one of their top two draft picks. Within that, he saw the odds as about 50-50 that Dallas would take the quarterback fourth overall. This cap manager also thought the unrestricted free-agent market for quarterbacks could be more interesting than usual in 2016 with Brock Osweiler among the players potentially reaching the market. That could affect the draft.
The personnel director acknowledged the Cowboys' need for defensive help, but he also thought Dallas would be foolish to pass up a true franchise quarterback. The question, of course, is whether Dallas will rate any of the available quarterbacks highly enough to select one so early. Can an organization afford to park a highly drafted quarterback on the bench for multiple seasons?
"If you are Jerry Jones, yes, you can," the personnel director said, noting that Jones, as the Cowboys' owner, enjoys job security no other GM can surpass. "I could see Goff going to Cleveland and Dallas taking Wentz. Romo is not a china doll, but he is getting to that point. You saw how bad they were without him -- it was tough to win a game."
Counterpoint: No QB at No. 4
Romo's contract carries a $20.8 million cap charge consuming 13.4 percent of the newly established $155,270,000 allotment. This huge financial commitment to Romo separates the Cowboys from the teams that used top-five selections for quarterbacks 19 times in the past 15 drafts. Those teams' highest-priced veteran quarterbacks carried cap charges between $395,914 and $5.75 million. None of those charges consumed more than 5.4 percent of the salary cap.
Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers and JaMarcus Russell combined for only three rookie starts as top-five overall picks since 2001. Vick's Atlanta Falcons had veteran Chris Chandler signed to a deal that counted $4.1 million against the cap (4.7 percent of the allotment). Palmer's Cincinnati Bengals had Jon Kitna ($3.6 million cap hit, 5.4 percent). Rivers' San Diego Chargers had Drew Brees ($2.4 million, 4.1 percent). Russell's Oakland Raiders had Daunte Culpepper ($3.2 million, 3.8 percent).
None of the teams using top-five picks for quarterbacks was all-in on a veteran the way Dallas is all-in on Romo. That will make the Cowboys much more reluctant to use such a high choice for a player who ideally would not play soon.
"I really don't think they are going to take a quarterback because they will realize Goff is the only one and he is maybe gone by then," an offensive assistant coach said. "If they really need a quarterback, I bet they try to trade back. I doubt they take one in the second round because they won't get the one they want."
A veteran contract negotiator thought the Cowboys would be much more likely to sign a veteran backup than target another position with the fourth pick. "They are not willing to throw out Romo just yet," this negotiator said. "Now, would that stop them from paying $5 million for [a backup]? No."
http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2016/in...y-whether-cowboys-draft-quarterback-early-nfl
