First-and-goal at the 1-yard line, with three seconds left in the first half.

[The30YardSlant]

Unless I'm down several scores, I'm taking the FG

 

[JD_KaPow]

Normally, I say go for it on 4th-and-goal from the 1. Part of the calculus there is that, even if you don't make it, the other team has to start pinned against their end zone. In that situation, on average, my team is the most likely team to score next.

At the end of the half, that part of the equation - pinning the other team deep - goes away, which makes it a closer decision. In that case, I think it depends much more on other factors: how much confidence do I have in my offense's ability to punch it in vs. their defense? Have I already fallen far behind? Am I playing a team that's simply a lot better than my team (in which case I'm willing to take more chances)? Etc.

 

[ufcrules1]

You almost always take the sure points!

 

[SC Cowboyfan]

How many time outs do I have?
Seriously, I'd take the FG.

 

[JoeCorrado]

Put in the most important calculation for reaching the "decision" and you can expect an answer.

At home:

Winning- against an even or lessor team; FG

Winning close against a better team; TD

Losing close to any team where a FG ties, or gets us a lead; FG

Losing more than 3, less or equal to 7 against a better team; TD

On the road-

TD - a FG keeps the crowd in it unless we are already winning... in which case a FG is as good as a TD if it puts us even or tied. But on the road against a better team where a FG gets us tied or the lead- of course a FG. blah, blah, blah..

I really would want to know more variables. What week of the season? Our standings? Their run defense in close, our run game? blah, blah, blah.

Why not ask about about when to use a time out?

 

[Tricericon]

Personnel are important, but the objective needs to be maximizing the points scored.

Taking the field goal to be a 99% shot, we get an expected value of 2.97 points from that.

Assuming the XP will be good at the same rate, we would need a ~43% chance of converting the touchdown to have a higher expected points ratio. Unless my personnel are terrible (NFL average 4th and 1 conversion is at 70%+, although it's harder at the goalline), this is an absolute no-brainer.

I should also note that if this is with 5 minutes left in the half instead of one second the field position advantage relative to a kickoff makes this even more of a no-brainer.

Except in late game situations where a field goal will either put you ahead or clinch, you should never, ever kick from the opposing one.

 

[Dodger]

Except in late game situations where a field goal will either put you ahead or clinch, you should never, ever kick from the opposing one.

I'm really surprised that more people don't agree with this.

 

[guag]

lol. Pooch punt from the opponent's 1?

ha, real life LOL just now.

 

[Clove]

I go with the guaranteed points, the field goal. There are times to gamble and times to play it safe. If we have an offense that's moving the ball up and down the field with ease, then I would probably go for the TD knowing that if I didn't get it, no problem since I'll be back there after half, on more than one occasion.

 

[Blast From The Past]

What's the score?!?

Im taking the FG almost every time

Yea, taken the 3 here too.

 

[Idgit]

Assuming I don't have known problems blocking in short yardage situations, I go for 7 from the 1 yard line in the first half, every time.