Fix This and Cowboy Season Can Turn

[Plankton]

Yes...huge factor. Your data seems off to me in the GB game...we only had one turnover that I recall...the deflection off of T-Wil.

There were three turnovers on the last play of the game - two by Dallas, one by Green Bay

 

[percyhoward]

The GB gameplan was to limit Rodgers and dare the GB running game to beat them.

That was the right gameplan but without Lee or Paea it didn't quite work. They held Rodgers to 221 yards and almost won the game.

"Holding" Rodgers to 221 yards doesn't improve your chances of winning, it makes them worse. Unless that number goes below 175.

Rodgers' passing yards: Packers' W-L
275+ yards: 52-26 (.667)
225-274 yards: 25-11 (.694)
175-224 yds: 24-9 (.727)
<175 yards: 3-7 (.300)

The Cowboys almost won the game because the Dallas offense scored so many points.

 

[xwalker]

I've taken time to study coach's film and my conclusion: secondary has been pretty good. Someone else here (xWalker?) took the time to study it and concluded the same thing about the secondary.

Heath and Frazier are less than satisfactory but we will see more Woods and Awuzie (health permitting) in those roles.

Yes, the secondary now looks good enough.

Don't forget that Woods the Safety had to play slot CB against Denver and some snaps there in another game.

The secondary with Lewis, Brown, Scandrick, Jones and Heath is good enough if they resolve the other issues. They are working Woods/Frazier/Awuzie into the mix and some combo of those 3 will likely displace Heath at some point.

LB has been the biggest problem but hopefully Leey/Hitchens are back together the rest of the season.

The DL is probably a net plus with Irving back despite losing Paea. Even if Paea was still playing, he likely would only have played 1/3rd or less of the snaps now that Irving is back. They've often played both DTs as 3-techs in obvious passing situations anyway and Paea didn't play in the 3-man line.

I hate to pile on to one player, but when I review game footage, so many problems seem to involve Jaylon.

Jaylon's issue have been obvious in run defense but he has also been the help defender on many failed pass plays.

In 1 game I counted almost all of the receptions that appeared to be against Brown were actually due to Brown not getting inside help and most often the intended help defender was Jaylon. They had Brown playing outside leverage which means he must have help when the receiver breaks inside. I'm not sure how much of Jaylon's fails against the pass were physical and how much was mental.

I'm very optmistic going forward and my top worry is everyone staying healthy more than an lack of ability.

I actually think this defense will be better than last year's defense by the end of the sesson IF everyone stays healthy.

 

[waving monkey]

I doubt we solve the d-line with a mid-season trade. We'll be drafting re-enforcements I would think come spring.

I was a huge critic of the Jones regime back when they tried to fix things impulsively and with overpaid for free agents. They are --for the most part--doing it better now...staying young, using the draft, avoiding big name free agents that usually don't succeed. They will be rewarded and praised in coming years.

Dallas is poised to build a team that can enjoy sustained success.

Very reasonable

 

[Mr Cowboy]

I'm a firm believer in that if we scored more points than our opposition there's a good chance that we win the game.

Dilly, Dilly!

 

[T-RO]

Yes, the secondary now looks good enough.

Don't forget that Woods the Safety had to play slot CB against Denver and some snaps there in another game.

The secondary with Lewis, Brown, Scandrick, Jones and Heath is good enough if they resolve the other issues. They are working Woods/Frazier/Awuzie into the mix and some combo of those 3 will likely displace Heath at some point.

LB has been the biggest problem but hopefully Leey/Hitchens are back together the rest of the season.

The DL is probably a net plus with Irving back despite losing Paea. Even if Paea was still playing, he likely would only have played 1/3rd or less of the snaps now that Irving is back. They've often played both DTs as 3-techs in obvious passing situations anyway and Paea didn't play in the 3-man line.

I hate to pile on to one player, but when I review game footage, so many problems seem to involve Jaylon.

Jaylon's issue have been obvious in run defense but he has also been the help defender on many failed pass plays.

In 1 game I counted almost all of the receptions that appeared to be against Brown were actually due to Brown not getting inside help and most often the intended help defender was Jaylon. They had Brown playing outside leverage which means he must have help when the receiver breaks inside. I'm not sure how much of Jaylon's fails against the pass were physical and how much was mental.

I'm very optmistic going forward and my top worry is everyone staying healthy more than an lack of ability.

I actually think this defense will be better than last year's defense by the end of the sesson IF everyone stays healthy.

Superb post. But as we know...the "everything sucks" crowd might not be able to digest the high fiber.

 

[KingintheNorth]

So the apologist narrative has shifted from "Jeff Heath is a playmaker/gets turnovers" to "We'll be okay once Jeff Heath is phased out" ?

Brown is a problem too and Byron is playing out of position. We are two secondary players away from being "decent."

Everything doesn't suck by the way. Just the defense.

 

[percyhoward]

PFF's rankings don't jive with the actual end results of our secondary play. They are at the bottom for giving up TDs. Opposing QBs have a very high QB rating against us. Advanced stats like FO has our pass D as one of the worst in football.

We do have one of the league's worst pass defenses, but that doesn't necessarily make our secondary among the worst.

Defense vs Types of Receivers
vs #1WR 15th
vs #2WR 21st
vs other WR 15th
vs TE 29th
vs RB 32nd

by Target Depth
deep 19th
short 29th

 

[xwalker]

"Holding" Rodgers to 221 yards doesn't improve your chances of winning, it makes them worse. Unless that number goes below 175.

Rodgers' passing yards: Packers' W-L
275+ yards: 52-26 (.667)
225-274 yards: 25-11 (.694)
175-224 yds: 24-9 (.727)
<175 yards: 3-7 (.300)

The Cowboys almost won the game because the Dallas offense scored so many points.

So your conclusion is that allowing more yards is better than allowing less yards...

 

[Verdict]

That's an offseason move. I am just talking about what to do now.

I thought you asked how to turn things around! Lol. That may be out best move.

 

[Verdict]

In discussing the secondary, I know some of the stats don't bear it out, but I've seen players who are better than what the stats show. As soon as the play calls/scheme aligns with their abilities, the stats will catch up.

Also, I don't know this, but I would have to wonder how the play would be without having to keep a peripheral concern for the linebacker shortcoming. I know, I know, this one is an apologetic reach for the safety play. That is one area where I believe the talent just does not measure up, but I reserve final judgement until we see this game with the proper linebackers healthy.

I think it's a fair question. The defensive backs don't operate in a vacuum. The defense operates as a unit. It's hard to evaluate one area of the defense if another area is atrocious.

 

[xwalker]

So the apologist narrative has shifted from "Jeff Heath is a playmaker/gets turnovers" to "We'll be okay once Jeff Heath is phased out" ?

Brown is a problem too and Byron is playing out of position. We are two secondary players away from being "decent."

Everything doesn't suck by the way. Just the defense.

Who said Heath was a play-maker?

 

[percyhoward]

So your conclusion is that allowing more yards is better than allowing less yards...

My point was that "holding" Rodgers (or any QB) to 200 yards doesn't improve your chances of winning, as you implied that it did. The NFL stopped using passing yards to determine its passing leaders back in the 1940's. If you want to measure the defense's performance against Rodgers, forget the yards and look at his 122.9 passer rating.

Since 2010, teams whose QB has a 120-125 rating are 98-24, no matter how many yards they threw for.

 

[xwalker]

I certainly don't take it as "gospel." But it's far better than casual fans here watching a game with a six-pack in their belly.

Trust your own eyes or individuals that your trust.

PFF pays fans/bloggers to watch the broadcast (Not All-22) and submit reports.

 

[Hardline]

I'm a big believer that Passing Offense and Passing Defense determines games.

However, there is a threshold where the running game can take over and win games. If you can gain--or if you yield--near 6 yards a game...that's usually going to swing a game.

Teams consistently sitting at 2nd and 4...are going to shred you.

In our 3 losses the Dallas D has allowed this to happen:

Broncos...5 yards per carry
Rams...5.5 yards per carry
Packers....6.4 yards per carry

Our secondary has been decent. (Linebackers in pass defense is a different story) But the front 7 has been a train-wreck in terms of run defense.

On Sunday--for the first time--we'll have Lee, Hitchens and Irving all suited up. The time is now to start stopping the run and if the boys can do it...the narrative of the season will change.

The running game has a bigger impact on winning games.

 

[T-RO]

We do have one of the league's worst pass defenses, but that doesn't necessarily make our secondary among the worst.

Defense vs Types of Receivers
vs #1WR 15th
vs #2WR 21st
vs other WR 15th
vs TE 29th
vs RB 32nd

by Target Depth
deep 19th
short 29th

Exactly. In descending order of strength our pass defense looks like this:
-Corners...good
-Safeties...could use improvement, but Xavier or Awuzie might provide
-Linebackers...bad so far (with Lee and Hitchens missing action)

 

[T-RO]

The running game has a bigger impact on winning games.

Uh...no.

It's been well documented that teams who have better QB efficiency than the opposing team's QB win about 75%(+) of games. This data holds up season after season. This has been talked about in great depth on this forum and the matter isn't worth re-hashing again.

 

[percyhoward]

Defense vs Types of Receivers
2017 rank (2016 rank)
vs #1WR 15th (9th)
vs #2WR 21st (18th)
vs other WR 15th (8th)
vs TE 29th (30th)
vs RB 32nd (18th)

by Target Depth
deep 19th (4th)
short 29th (29th)

 

[T-RO]

There were three turnovers on the last play of the game - two by Dallas, one by Green Bay

OK... thanks.

Obviously we can safely view those as meaningless.

 

[KingintheNorth]

Who said Heath was a play-maker?

Almost every fan boy on this site, all off-season long.

There may have been one or two Robert Blanton fans, possibly relatives.