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Dallas Cowboys: Let DeMarco Murray leave in free agency
Murray was the offensive player of the year in 2014, with a league-high and franchise-record 1,845 yards on the ground. He is about to become a free agent, though, and if the Cowboys are smart, they won't make a big effort to re-sign him.
Murray is one of seven Dallas starters on the cusp of free agency, including Dez Bryant, and the team only has about $7 million in projected cap space. The Cowboys can't keep everyone, and there's reason to think that they could run the ball well even without Murray, thanks to the league's best offensive line.
Murray was fifth in the NFL among running backs this season in DVOA (which measures a runner's production and efficiency on a per-carry basis), but Dallas led the league in Adjusted Line Yards (which attempts to measure a team's run blocking). At least four starters on that line will return in 2015, and none of those four will be older than 26. Murray might also be damaged goods. He racked up 392 carries in 2014, and runners who carry the ball that often havefrequently struggled with injuries in subsequent seasons.
There are no obvious replacements for Murray on the Dallas roster, especially after Joseph Randle's recent legal woes. The upcoming draft, though, is deep at the running back position. Melvin Gordon, Tevin Coleman, Buck Allen, Ameer Abdullah or T.J. Yeldon might be able to fill Murray's shoes, for pennies on the dollar.
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Philadelphia Eagles: Trade up in the draft for Marcus Mariota
When Chip Kelly arrived in Philadelphia in 2013, his unorthodox offensive system caught the league off guard and turned draft afterthought Nick Foles into a Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback for about three months. Given a full offseason to study Eagles game film, though, the rest of the league caught up, and in 2014 Foles looked like the mediocre passer he has always been. Philadelphia will need better quarterback play to get far in the playoffs.
Which brings us to Mariota, who played for Kelly at Oregon. College football has undergone some radical changes in the past four or five seasons, and that has made it more difficult to project how quarterback performance will translate from the amateur ranks to the pros. That said, Mariota shines in all the statistical categories that have indicated NFL success in the past. He started 41 NCAA games. He completed 67 percent of his passes in his career. He averaged 6.6 yards per carry and 54.6 rushing yards per game, so he has good mobility. But, unlike say Tim Tebow, he didn't run so often that it's hard to judge his passing prowess. And any concerns that Mariota might be a product of his system would be irrelevant in Philadelphia, which is running the same system anyway.
As an early guess, it would cost Philadelphia their top two draft picks this year (at a minimum) to move up from 20 and get Mariota. That's a small price to pay for the perfect quarterback for Kelly's offense.
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New York Giants: Abandon the running game
The Giants didn't do a lot well in 2014. According to DVOA, they were decent in passing offense (where they ranked 12th) and special teams (15th), but they were 21st or worse in rushing offense, rushing defense and passing defense.
They do have one star player, however: Odell Beckham Jr., who set a rookie record with 108.8 receiving yards per game, the first freshman to hit triple digits in more than half a century. Beckham finished with 394 receiving DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement), the second-best rookie season in our database (since 1989) behind Randy Moss -- and he did that despite missing the first quarter of the season. In fact, no receiver last year had more DYAR after Beckham hit the field in Week 5. A case can be made that in his first season, Beckham was already the best receiver in the league.
It only makes sense to get the ball to a talent like this as often as possible, and that means Eli Manning should be throwing 40 passes per game. It also means the Giants need to bolster their receiving corps. Rueben Randle makes a fine No. 2, but the Giants need more depth in caseVictor Cruz gets hurt again. Even more, New York needs a receiving option out of the backfield. Their success rate on throws to their running backs last year was a league-worst 28 percent. Washington's Roy Helu finished seventh among running backs in receiving DYAR last season, and would make a fine signing in free agency.
Note: Success rate is defined as passes which gained at least 45 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent on second down, or 100 percent on third or fourth down.)
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Washington Commanders: Commit to Robert Griffin III-- for one more year
In 31 NFL cities, advising teams to show faith in a talented young quarterback as he played through growing pains would be common sense, not a bold move. In D.C., though, common sense is a rare commodity (and yes, we're talking about football here).
Make no mistake, RG III played very badly in 2014. His DVOA was minus-34.1 percent, significantly worse than teammates Kirk Cousins (4.7 percent) or Colt McCoy (minus-15.7 percent). Griffin's ability to handle pressure and deliver on third downs collapsed in 2014. His sack rate was below 8 percent in each of his first two seasons, but it soared to 13.4 percent last year, highest of any quarterback with at least 200 passes since 2006. And in 71 third-down dropbacks, he was sacked 13 times and threw four interceptions, finishing last in the league in both DVOA (minus-99.4 percent) and conversion rate (25 percent). That might say more about the team than the player, though; Cousins and McCoy also had third-down DVOAs worse than any other starter in the league.
The team must take some responsibility for Griffin's regression. Yanking him in and out of the starting lineup has cost him valuable experience both in practice and games. It's easy to forget that he doesn't turn 25 until Feb. 12, and he has only started 36 NFL games (including the playoffs). There's still time to show progress in his fourth season, the last year of his rookie contract. Washington needs to give him a full season's worth of reps to show he has progressed. And if he hasn't, the Commanders can start looking for a new passer in 2016.
Dallas Cowboys: Let DeMarco Murray leave in free agency
Murray was the offensive player of the year in 2014, with a league-high and franchise-record 1,845 yards on the ground. He is about to become a free agent, though, and if the Cowboys are smart, they won't make a big effort to re-sign him.
Murray is one of seven Dallas starters on the cusp of free agency, including Dez Bryant, and the team only has about $7 million in projected cap space. The Cowboys can't keep everyone, and there's reason to think that they could run the ball well even without Murray, thanks to the league's best offensive line.
Murray was fifth in the NFL among running backs this season in DVOA (which measures a runner's production and efficiency on a per-carry basis), but Dallas led the league in Adjusted Line Yards (which attempts to measure a team's run blocking). At least four starters on that line will return in 2015, and none of those four will be older than 26. Murray might also be damaged goods. He racked up 392 carries in 2014, and runners who carry the ball that often havefrequently struggled with injuries in subsequent seasons.
There are no obvious replacements for Murray on the Dallas roster, especially after Joseph Randle's recent legal woes. The upcoming draft, though, is deep at the running back position. Melvin Gordon, Tevin Coleman, Buck Allen, Ameer Abdullah or T.J. Yeldon might be able to fill Murray's shoes, for pennies on the dollar.
-
Philadelphia Eagles: Trade up in the draft for Marcus Mariota
When Chip Kelly arrived in Philadelphia in 2013, his unorthodox offensive system caught the league off guard and turned draft afterthought Nick Foles into a Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback for about three months. Given a full offseason to study Eagles game film, though, the rest of the league caught up, and in 2014 Foles looked like the mediocre passer he has always been. Philadelphia will need better quarterback play to get far in the playoffs.
Which brings us to Mariota, who played for Kelly at Oregon. College football has undergone some radical changes in the past four or five seasons, and that has made it more difficult to project how quarterback performance will translate from the amateur ranks to the pros. That said, Mariota shines in all the statistical categories that have indicated NFL success in the past. He started 41 NCAA games. He completed 67 percent of his passes in his career. He averaged 6.6 yards per carry and 54.6 rushing yards per game, so he has good mobility. But, unlike say Tim Tebow, he didn't run so often that it's hard to judge his passing prowess. And any concerns that Mariota might be a product of his system would be irrelevant in Philadelphia, which is running the same system anyway.
As an early guess, it would cost Philadelphia their top two draft picks this year (at a minimum) to move up from 20 and get Mariota. That's a small price to pay for the perfect quarterback for Kelly's offense.
-
New York Giants: Abandon the running game
The Giants didn't do a lot well in 2014. According to DVOA, they were decent in passing offense (where they ranked 12th) and special teams (15th), but they were 21st or worse in rushing offense, rushing defense and passing defense.
They do have one star player, however: Odell Beckham Jr., who set a rookie record with 108.8 receiving yards per game, the first freshman to hit triple digits in more than half a century. Beckham finished with 394 receiving DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement), the second-best rookie season in our database (since 1989) behind Randy Moss -- and he did that despite missing the first quarter of the season. In fact, no receiver last year had more DYAR after Beckham hit the field in Week 5. A case can be made that in his first season, Beckham was already the best receiver in the league.
It only makes sense to get the ball to a talent like this as often as possible, and that means Eli Manning should be throwing 40 passes per game. It also means the Giants need to bolster their receiving corps. Rueben Randle makes a fine No. 2, but the Giants need more depth in caseVictor Cruz gets hurt again. Even more, New York needs a receiving option out of the backfield. Their success rate on throws to their running backs last year was a league-worst 28 percent. Washington's Roy Helu finished seventh among running backs in receiving DYAR last season, and would make a fine signing in free agency.
Note: Success rate is defined as passes which gained at least 45 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent on second down, or 100 percent on third or fourth down.)
-
Washington Commanders: Commit to Robert Griffin III-- for one more year
In 31 NFL cities, advising teams to show faith in a talented young quarterback as he played through growing pains would be common sense, not a bold move. In D.C., though, common sense is a rare commodity (and yes, we're talking about football here).
Make no mistake, RG III played very badly in 2014. His DVOA was minus-34.1 percent, significantly worse than teammates Kirk Cousins (4.7 percent) or Colt McCoy (minus-15.7 percent). Griffin's ability to handle pressure and deliver on third downs collapsed in 2014. His sack rate was below 8 percent in each of his first two seasons, but it soared to 13.4 percent last year, highest of any quarterback with at least 200 passes since 2006. And in 71 third-down dropbacks, he was sacked 13 times and threw four interceptions, finishing last in the league in both DVOA (minus-99.4 percent) and conversion rate (25 percent). That might say more about the team than the player, though; Cousins and McCoy also had third-down DVOAs worse than any other starter in the league.
The team must take some responsibility for Griffin's regression. Yanking him in and out of the starting lineup has cost him valuable experience both in practice and games. It's easy to forget that he doesn't turn 25 until Feb. 12, and he has only started 36 NFL games (including the playoffs). There's still time to show progress in his fourth season, the last year of his rookie contract. Washington needs to give him a full season's worth of reps to show he has progressed. And if he hasn't, the Commanders can start looking for a new passer in 2016.
