Football Outsiders: Cowboy's "Freeze Draw"

[Tobal]

everyone struggles on 3rd and long. Every defense wants every offense in 3rd and long.

 

[theogt]

theo, you keep using stats that aren't relevant to what the author was talking about.

His stats on 3rd down and 6+ yards to go: (The author said he struggled on third and long)

57-101, 56.4%, 744 yards, 1 TD/3 INT's -- 70.7 QB Rating.


That's what he was referring to.

I don't like the way he worded it though, because Tony has no problem reading defenses no matter what the down or distance is.

I bet a lot of elite qb's have mediocre numbers on 3rd and long.

I just picked Philip Rivers off the top of my head because he's having a great year and these are his 3rd and 6+ yard stats:

45-82, 54.9 %, 778 yards, 3 TD's/5INT's -- 74.1 QB Rating.

As I said before, his comment isn't limited to just 3rd and long. He only uses 3rd and long as an example of a place where Tony's supposed weakness is exposed. If this was truly a weakness it would show up on other downs this year. And it would show up on his 3rd down stats in other years. But it only shows up on 3rd down stats in 2009.

My entire point is that the 3rd down stats in 2009 are the anomaly (which is why the other stats are relevant). If his deep ball statistics are good in every year for every down, except for this year on 3rd and long, you can't point to those statistics and say he has a weakness of "reading defenses" and "throwing from the pocket on deep drops."

The author probably just looked at those 3rd down stats and thought, "Oh I bet he has a weakness on deep drops and can't read defenses," which is utterly absurd.

 

[adbutcher]

Here are Tony's stats on downs with "long" to go (i.e., 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th downs with at least 7 yards to go.

290/453 (64%), 3860 yards (8.5 YPA), 15 TDs, 7 INTs, 95.5 QB rating.

Big weakness there.

Yea I know. Nice write up, it would be better if it wasn't filled with inaccuracies.

 

[adbutcher]

I have a hard time reading it when he does not even have simple facts straight.

1) Felix does not run the wildcat - Choice does

2) Our offense did not struggle at the beginning of the year - as a matter of fact I believe we were 2nd ranked for the first 8 games or so.

So, why would I put any stock in anything else he writes by watching a couple of games.

3rd and long......

We were good in 07 because Romo did not have a conscience in 2007, he would take chances and throw the ball all over the field and IMO was all world. I loved that Romo, there was not a play that he could not make and we converted all kinds of plays.

This year after the Giants game Romo scaled himself back a lot - you could see it for the first 3-4 games after that game how conservative he was in his throws. IMO he he just now getting to a great balance of making plays and also being judicious with the ball. It is not as exciting as
the Romo of 2007 and does not produce as many 3rd and long but you have less TO's.

The writer loss a lot of credibility. It was almost like he never watched the Boys play, similar to Peter King, lol.

 

[adbutcher]

we had a similar play back in the emmitt years: the lead draw. very effective i recall.

The lead draw was a monster!

 

[adbutcher]

The reasons other teams can't run it is they don't have Romo. Romo has tremendous ball-handling ability and excellent footwork. You combine that with a quick release and excellent subtle head and shoulder fakes and you see why defenses have such a hard time keying whether we are:

1. Dropping back for a regular pass

2. running a draw

3. faking a draw to run a pass

3. Setting up a draw, faking a pass and then running a draw

I do disagree with the assertion that Romo can't be a successful dropback passer. I think we did this to great success in 2007. We are also quite good with it in 2008 when the protection was there. I think we have gone to shorter routes this year to help out the OL who were asked to do too much previously. It also left us quite vulnerable to the blitz. Many of us have been critical of Garrett having too many slow developing pass plays that were leaving Romo vulnerable to big hits.

The other problem we had with long dropbacks that we haven't always had great route runners in TO and RW during Romo's stint here which makes it hard to execute the timing offense that Garrett wants. Next year, either RW is going to be better at running his routes or he will be on the bench, IMO. I think Crayton is in better shape and quicker than he was before and might be the possession receiver complement to Miles Austin. Kevin Ogletree looks like he can be the quick Terry Glenn-like route runner that we have lacked and he seems to possess more speed than Crayton.

I wouldn't be surprised if Romo doesn't push the passing game even further in 2010. 4800 yards would not be out of the question, IMO. I really thnk this offense could average more than 32 ppg with some more consistency in red zone execution.

Bravo!

 

[Bob Sacamano]

breaking up adbutcher postpadpolooza

 

[adbutcher]

breaking up adbutcher postpadpolooza

Thank you Bob, I can always count on you.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Thank you Bob, I can always count on you.

esp in a fight

 

[TD-33]

theo, you keep using stats that aren't relevant to what the author was talking about.

His stats on 3rd down and 6+ yards to go: (The author said he struggled on third and long)

57-101, 56.4%, 744 yards, 1 TD/3 INT's -- 70.7 QB Rating.


That's what he was referring to.

I don't like the way he worded it though, because Tony has no problem reading defenses no matter what the down or distance is.

I bet a lot of elite qb's have mediocre numbers on 3rd and long.

I just picked Philip Rivers off the top of my head because he's having a great year and these are his 3rd and 6+ yard stats:

45-82, 54.9 %, 778 yards, 3 TD's/5INT's -- 74.1 QB Rating.

Fair enough but consider rivers is having a sensational year and may be the best at converting 3rd downs this season.
Despite his glaring disadvantage. ----> http://img269.*************/img269/3959/zv3dxi.gif

 

[adbutcher]

esp in a fight

Me and Bob back to back in a dark alley. I think I will also need eyes in the back of my head.

 

[Temo]

Here's Romo on deep passes thrown at least 21 yards in the air.

145/230, 1909 yards, 13 TDs, 4 INTs, 100.8 QB rating.

Their statement that Romo has "an inability to read defenses and throw from the pocket on a deep drop" is patently absurd.

He completed 63% of his passes that went more than 21 yards in the air? Can I see a source on that? Your stats imply that Romo had AT LEAST 3045 of his 4483 yards through the air. That's a lot...

According to Yahoo, the Cowboys had about 2153 YAC on the season. Your numbers don't add up. I believe they're the stats for all pass plays that went for at least 21 yards.

And again, I didn't say that he couldn't pass downfield, just that he's not a 7-step-drop, read-and-react type of thrower. He can still pass downfield with a fair deal of accuracy on "choreographed" plays, such as Austin's double-moves.

 

[theogt]

He completed 63% of his passes that went more than 21 yards in the air? Can I see a source on that? Your stats imply that Romo had AT LEAST 3045 of his 4483 yards through the air. That's a lot...

According to Yahoo, the Cowboys had about 2153 YAC on the season. Your numbers don't add up. I believe they're the stats for all pass plays that went for at least 21 yards.

And again, I didn't say that he couldn't pass downfield, just that he's not a 7-step-drop, read-and-react type of thrower. He can still pass downfield with a fair deal of accuracy on "choreographed" plays, such as Austin's double-moves.

I copied the wrong stats -- that was attempts 21 and higher.

Here are his stats for passes that went over 21 yards in the air.

9/31, 370 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INTs, 103 QB rating.

 

[theogt]

Romo's career stats for throws over 21 yards:

77/208, 2839 yards, 31 TDs, 14 INTs, 96.5 QB rating.

Clearly a "weakness."

 

[percyhoward]

According to profootballweekly.com, Romo tied with Carson Palmer for most 3rd-and-long conversions in 2009. They each made 29 first downs on 3rd and 8+.

Romo also finished with a higher conversion rate on 3rd-and-long than any of the QB's who were voted to the Pro Bowl in the NFC.

The writer is an idiot.

 

[theogt]

According to profootballweekly.com, Romo tied with Carson Palmer for most 3rd-and-long conversions in 2009. They each made 29 first downs on 3rd and 8+.

Romo also finished with a higher conversion rate on 3rd-and-long than any of the QB's who were voted to the Pro Bowl in the NFC.

The writer is an idiot.

Well, that conveys the point much better.