Yakuza Rich;5016406 said:
You're basically right in the main concept of what has to happen.
But, sports leagues will always seek out the largest bidder. FOX was supposed to have no chance in college football with ABC/ESPN and CBS having college football wrapped up. But, when FOX got the opportunity to broadcast college football nationally they were able to wrap up a deal. I believe that the other sports will follow and at least give FOX the opportunity to acquire the programming rights. FOX already has baseball and football anyway.
I'm more concerned that FOX will think they have to follow ESPN's exact model and more or less become an ESPN clone. What it needs to do is differentiate itself from ESPN and make viewers believe that the quality of programming is superior to ESPN. If they try to copy ESPN, then they run into the problem of only getting viewers for games on TV instead of missing out on the huge media market which ESPN has a monopoly on.
YR
The "model" as far as on-air presentation doesn't matter. It's whether you have the events that people want to watch.
Fox's first crack at this failed for two reasons. One, Murdoch (which is rare for him) didn't have the stomach to lose money they way they ended up losing it. Two, they didn't have contracts with the major conferences and sports to provide events.
Now, they are in competition with NBC Sports Network and CBS Sports Network in addition to ESPN for the events. ESPN's model has created an astronomical financial advantage for bidding on events. Fox, for this launch, will get $0.31 per subscriber per month for the carriage of the channel (which works out to being $2.7M per month). NBCSN and CBSSN average roughly the same (NBCSN is in around 82 million homes, CBSSN is in around 63 million homes). ESPN is in over 100 million homes, and gets the biggest per subscriber rate in the industry - roughly $5.00 per sub (this is to carry all of the ESPN portfolio). That works out to them making over $500M per month just on subs. This is with no advertising sales.
Very hard to compete with them on rights fees with that kind of ledger.