Free/Parnell and Cowboys Predictable on Offense

[xwalker]

I reviewed all of the runs to the right to see if there was an issue when Parnell played the 2nd half.

Blue indicates that Free/Parnell might have had an issue on this play.

The total yardage running right was 20 with Free in the game and 13 with Parnell in the game. They had the biggest run right with Parnell in the game (14 yards).

I'll make a 2nd post in this thread that shows something I noticed when doing this evaluation. The Cowboys have absolute predictability based on the shotgun formation. If Murray is in the game and it's shotgun, it is always a pass. If Romo is under Center it's not absolute, but it's very high probability of a run. The Eagles mix up run/pass in shotgun/under-center.

 

[xwalker]

The Cowboys have absolute predictability based on the shotgun formation. If Murray is in the game and it's shotgun, it is always a pass. If Romo is under Center it's not absolute, but it's very high probability of a run. The Eagles mix up run/pass in shotgun/under-center.

Red is a run from shotgun.
Blue is a pass from shotgun.
Green is a pass from under center.
Black is a run from under center.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

So if I understand what you are saying here, without the 14 yard run, the running game towards Parnell actually would have resulted in a negative yardage situation?

 

[gimmesix]

X, the only thing I question about your evaluation is that you seem to assume that a lot of the runs are supposed to go inside or outside when the blocking doesn't hold up to the right side. One of the strengths of this running game has been the linemen's ability to get on blocks and sustain them to allow Murray to find the seam and hit it. I don't know how Parnell did with that because I haven't examined his play yet, but it seems to me that at least with Free, Murray has a better feel for how the blocking is going to unfold and what cut he needs to make.

Not saying Murray always makes the right cut because you listed at least one with Free in the game where Murray cut the wrong way, but part of Murray's success is probably attributable to him understanding how his linemen are going to block for him. Don't know if he has the same feel for Parnell simply because he hasn't played behind him as much.

 

[Crown Royal]

Tough to evaluate the right side of the line after both Free and Martin got injured, considering that those two positions needs to work together.

 

[xwalker]

X, the only thing I question about your evaluation is that you seem to assume that a lot of the runs are supposed to go inside or outside when the blocking doesn't hold up to the right side. One of the strengths of this running game has been the linemen's ability to get on blocks and sustain them to allow Murray to find the seam and hit it. I don't know how Parnell did with that because I haven't examined his play yet, but it seems to me that at least with Free, Murray has a better feel for how the blocking is going to unfold and what cut he needs to make.

Not saying Murray always makes the right cut because you listed at least one with Free in the game where Murray cut the wrong way, but part of Murray's success is probably attributable to him understanding how his linemen are going to block for him. Don't know if he has the same feel for Parnell simply because he hasn't played behind him as much.

That's a good point; although, in this game I would say the Murray's decision was based more on other blocks than on Free's or Parnell's blocks in most of the runs to the right.

This biggest issue in this game was the Eagles played the run first. They committed to run defense from the beginning to the end of the game. They paid the price with their CB 1-on-1 on Dez.

It really helped the Eagles play run defense because Cowboys were very predictable in run/pass.

The biggest problem I saw in these runs to the right was the backside blocking. You'll see the in the last 4 runs to the right, that the tackler came from the backside.

Another interesting side note is that Free/Parnell were normally blocking the DE but against the Commanders (another 3-4 team) Parnell was often blocking the OLB.

 

[xwalker]

Tough to evaluate the right side of the line after both Free and Martin got injured, considering that those two positions needs to work together.

Any thoughts on my 2nd post (predictable offense)?

Does the color formatting make it easy to see what is happening?

 

[Future]

Any thoughts on my 2nd post (predictable offense)?

Does the color formatting make it easy to see what is happening?

One of the interesting things about Dallas' offense this year is that it is still pretty much as predictable as it has ever been. However, improved line play and perhaps the maturity of some receivers is making the passing game better and there is the constant threat of the run game. Even if you know Dallas is in a passing formation, you can't just leave 5 guys in the box because they can switch to a run.

I've always hated this scheme because its was so reactive to what defenses do. It still is now, but the run game is so good that the defense has to pick their poison, rather than defend the pass and stop the run with fewer guys in the box.

 

[Zordon]

i mentioned this in the game thread, good to have some proof. their dline is good, not that good. the way they were coming down hill in the 2nd half you could tell they were being tipped on run plays. whether it be scheme/personnel, something was giving it away. i wish we could send this to the team, although with some self-scouting they should figure it out themselves.

 

[Crown Royal]

Any thoughts on my 2nd post (predictable offense)?

Does the color formatting make it easy to see what is happening?

Too many dimensions involved to draw a simple conclusion. I'd have to sit and really study that table to make sense of it.

My gut tells me that yes - we usually are passing out of shotgun and the league kind of knows that. But there have been some called runs out of shotgun this year that have been successful too.

 

[Crown Royal]

I should add that I'm not too concerned with being predictable on offense. This coaching staff values player execution over advanced tactics, I think. And right now they have the personnel to succeed. If it's first down and you're playing against the cowboys - expect us to run.

 

[xwalker]

One of the interesting things about Dallas' offense this year is that it is still pretty much as predictable as it has ever been. However, improved line play and perhaps the maturity of some receivers is making the passing game better and there is the constant threat of the run game. Even if you know Dallas is in a passing formation, you can't just leave 5 guys in the box because they can switch to a run.

I've always hated this scheme because its was so reactive to what defenses do. It still is now, but the run game is so good that the defense has to pick their poison, rather than defend the pass and stop the run with fewer guys in the box.

It just seems like they made it difficult for themselves, especially ruunning the ball. If Romo is under center and Murry is the RB, then the Eagles can overlaod against the run with minimal concern about the Cowboys passing.

I think there might be some other things there doing that even make it predictable is they are running right or left because the Eagles often appeared to get a jump in the correct direction.

 

[Crown Royal]

It just seems like they made it difficult for themselves, especially ruunning the ball. If Romo is under center and Murry is the RB, then the Eagles can overlaod against the run with minimal concern about the Cowboys passing.

I think there might be some other things there doing that even make it predictable is they are running right or left because the Eagles often appeared to get a jump in the correct direction.

Without being at Valley Ranch, I get the feeling that Garrett has extreme confidence in his offensive coaching staff and personnel overall. I really think they devise a gameplan of plays that they feel will work and that they will execute and just go into the game with the expectation of getting it done. You really do have to choose what you value during the week and where you will spend your time - adding wrinkles to confuse the other team and which ones, or focus on execution.

By the way - you are right about formation, but strategically I think they DEFINITELY caught the Eagles off guard. We played 7 empty backfield plays and at really odd times on early downs. We had a lot more inside breaking routes, and used witten WAY more than we have in the past. While you are right that once we presented our personnel and set, the play call was a little obvious, that doesn't mean it is what the Eagles practiced for all week. They ran enough to keep the Eagles convicted in selling out against the run, but converted a ton of inside the numbers passes to move the chains and then destroyed them over the top when they dared us to.

I guess you can make the distinction between strategic and tactical predictability. The Cowboys are generally very predictable tactically - if they are in 12 personnel, you'd better put money on a running play. But, you are left to guess at the game overall on whether we are going to attack certain areas of the field, because be aware that the personnel exists to do almost anything we want to anywhere on the field. Pick your poison and hope you practiced for the right thing.

 

[cowboys2233]

Any thoughts on my 2nd post (predictable offense)?

Does the color formatting make it easy to see what is happening?

Only that the more predictable it becomes, the more of a surprise it is when we do something different out of the formation. Without predictability, there can be no surprise.

 

[Tabascocat]

The Cowboys do have tendencies, strong tendencies to run the same plays over and over with minimal variation. I have been saying this for awhile now.........they are predictable to a fault and it will cost them sooner than later.

Example: If you see Harris in the offense, bet the house that he is getting the ball. The same applies to Dunbar but not near the 99.9% that Harris gets it.

Shotgun, it will be a pass 90% of the time. Romo under center on 1st or 2nd down(less than 6 yards), will probably be a run, most likely to the right side.

It is all fine and dandy until teams stop the run on a consistent basis. I know, win your match-ups and the rest will play out. But, if we had a more dynamic and innovative passing offense to go along with the running game, there is no reason we can't have a top 1 or 2 offense.

We need more screens, slants, seams, motion, maybe even an option route on occasion. How about rolling Romo out some, he is dynamic when he has to leave the pocket.

Since Romo isn't even a threat to run, that is one less worry other teams have to deal with and allows them to concentrate on stopping the run.

The offense is ok now but it can be quite a bit better IMO. Once injuries mount, lose a couple of lineman, etc........we will need a better passing game to make up for it.

 

[Crown Royal]

Only that the more predictable it becomes, the more of a surprise it is when we do something different out of the formation. Without predictability, there can be no surprise.

They called a play action pass out of a heavy run formation once. I think Romo got sacked.

 

[Crown Royal]

The Cowboys do have tendencies, strong tendencies to run the same plays over and over with minimal variation. I have been saying this for awhile now.........they are predictable to a fault and it will cost them sooner than later.

Example: If you see Harris in the offense, bet the house that he is getting the ball. The same applies to Dunbar but not near the 99.9% that Harris gets it.

Shotgun, it will be a pass 90% of the time. Romo under center on 1st or 2nd down(less than 6 yards), will probably be a run, most likely to the right side.

It is all fine and dandy until teams stop the run on a consistent basis. I know, win your match-ups and the rest will play out. But, if we had a more dynamic and innovative passing offense to go along with the running game, there is no reason we can't have a top 1 or 2 offense.

We need more screens, slants, seams, motion, maybe even an option route on occasion. How about rolling Romo out some, he is dynamic when he has to leave the pocket.

Since Romo isn't even a threat to run, that is one less worry other teams have to deal with and allows them to concentrate on stopping the run.

The offense is ok now but it can be quite a bit better IMO. Once injuries mount, lose a couple of lineman, etc........we will need a better passing game to make up for it.

I disagree on Harris- he plays a reasonable number of run plays because he's a pretty good run blocker.

Regarding your comment on stopping the run - Philly actually did a decent job limiting the run, but they required numbers in personnel to do it (not to take away a heck of a job by their DL to ruin our zone running).

I don't think there is a team in the league that can consistently stop the Cowboy's run game with less than 8 in the box. So I guess I'm not disagreeing with you, I am siding with the Cowboys. Yes - it's predictable, and yes maybe you'll stop it. But if stopping it takes 8 or more then be prepared to deal with Tony and Dez.

 

[big dog cowboy]

i mentioned this in the game thread, good to have some proof. their dline is good, not that good. the way they were coming down hill in the 2nd half you could tell they were being tipped on run plays. whether it be scheme/personnel, something was giving it away.

It was crystal clear something was wrong. Because you are 100% right that the Eagles run defense was waiting for Murray that 2nd half.

 

[Tabascocat]

I disagree on Harris- he plays a reasonable number of run plays because he's a pretty good run blocker.

Yes, he has been over the last couple of games. But, before that, he wasn't involved in too much run blocking.

Add: should have been clearer, when I see Harris in on a passing play, he gets the ball.

 

[Crown Royal]

Put another way @dexternjack, if a team is good enough to beat the cowboys Run game with only 7 AND stop the pass, no amount of scheming is going to help us that much. THat's one heck of a defense!