Garrett: we don’t use those numbers during a game

[Diehardblues]

Totally agree!!

These analytic stats are compiled from gutsy decisions which don’t reflect the different aspects in a particular game as described.

They are just numbers after the fact.

 

[aikemirv]

In those conditions the smartest thing to do in traffic is not field the ball.

Can’t do that for kockoffs

 

[Diehardblues]

Can’t do that for kockoffs

I know but you can fair catch them.

 

[Aviano90]

Maybe this has been answered but what I can find is the following:

Win Probability of going for it on 4th down = 18.8%
Win Probability of FG attempt = 16.7%

Does anybody know the win probabilities if the following occurred:
Turnover on downs = ???
Successful FG attempt = ???

 

[AlienBoy]

The biggest intangible everyone is forgetting is momentum. You can't deny that emotion plays a great part in this game. What happens to your team if you go for it and don't make it? Players lose any momentum they may have built on the drive and the other team is at a very high point after making a defensive stop. At that point, they have come away with ZERO points and know if they have any chance of winning, they must make a stop, then drive down the field knowing they've been stopped every single time. Its very likely that the opposing team is at a very high emotional state after the stop and they drive down the field for more points. We've seen it happen plenty of times.

Taking the 3 points leaves both sides at their same emotional states, if anything, the offense may get a boost knowing they got some points and their next drive could be the game winning drive.

One other point in this argument. I am all for having analytics available. Knowing probabilities could help make a decision, but you can't let it drive your decisions. You're "gut" and experience is more important in situations. With this coaching staff though, I don't know if that's a good thing, lol! In any case, the argument here is the analytics showed if you went for it your chances would've increased the chance of winning, but by how much? According to the argument on the Fan, it was close to 1%. This is an insignificant number. This was basically a 50/50 call.

 

[HungryLion]

Maybe this has been answered but what I can find is the following:

Win Probability of going for it on 4th down = 18.8%
Win Probability of FG attempt = 16.7%

Does anybody know the win probabilities if the following occurred:
Turnover on downs = ???
Successful FG attempt = ???

I don’t. But when he is making that decision the coach doesn’t know if they will turnover the ball on downs or if the FG will be successful.

Of course you wouldn’t go for it on 4th down if you know that you will fail to convert.

 

[Aviano90]

I don’t. But when he is making that decision the coach doesn’t know if they will turnover the ball on downs or if the FG will be successful.

Of course you wouldn’t go for it on 4th down if you know that you will fail to convert.

The difference between attempting it on 4th and attempting a FG was an added 2.1 win percentage.

Harbaugh said “So what’s the added win percentage of going for it? He’ll give it to me like one, two, three, four, five, six, up to whatever. Then you just decide if you want to do it. It’s not strictly based [on the numbers]. I listen to it. If he starts telling me 3 and 4 percent, I get really interested. If it’s 1 or 2 percent, I’m still interested — especially if it’s short, if I think we can get it.”

I'm wondering what the risk is for the remainder of the game if we failed to get the first down (because i think that is the most likely scenario) compared to kicking the FG. What would the win percentages say then? I think that also should factor into the decision, don't you? For example, if it says cutting it to 4 point lead increases win percentage to 19% vs win percentage decreasing to 8% if you fail to convert on 4th down. Wouldn't you like that information to be taken into account as well when making your decision?

 

[HungryLion]

The difference between attempting it on 4th and attempting a FG was an added 2.1 win percentage.

Harbaugh said “So what’s the added win percentage of going for it? He’ll give it to me like one, two, three, four, five, six, up to whatever. Then you just decide if you want to do it. It’s not strictly based [on the numbers]. I listen to it. If he starts telling me 3 and 4 percent, I get really interested. If it’s 1 or 2 percent, I’m still interested — especially if it’s short, if I think we can get it.”

I'm wondering what the risk is for the remainder of the game if we failed to get the first down (because i think that is the most likely scenario) compared to kicking the FG. What would the win percentages say then? I think that also should factor into the decision, don't you? For example, if it says cutting it to 4 point lead increases win percentage to 19% vs win percentage decreasing to 8% if you fail to convert on 4th down. Wouldn't you like that information to be taken into account as well when making your decision?

It would be interesting to know. The more information the better. I trust factual data over redball’s gut. That’s for sure.

I also imagine that the win probability makes a big gain, if the cowboys were to hypothetically score a touchdown on that 4th and 7.

 

[Aviano90]

It would be interesting to know.

I also imagine that the win probability makes a big gain, if the cowboys were to hypothetically score a touchdown on that 4th and 7.

I'm sure it would but I think the odds of successfully converting on 4th down (TD or 1D) were extremely low.

I just found out the difference in win % of going for it vs. attempting the FG. I was surprised to see just how small the difference was considering the amount of conversation this decision has sparked. Even the coach used as a pioneer in using win% says he is still interested in 1-2% increase especially if its short and he thinks he can make it. That statement alone makes this entire conversation almost comical outside of Garrett not wanting the numbers during the game. The difference was negligible. People are acting as if it was a no-brainer and anyone with a difference of opinion is just a football idiot.

 

[IheartRomo]

This is breath-takingly ghastly. An outright embarrassingly misinformed thought.

Having data/analytics at your disposable provides invaluable information. You do not need to let the data dictate the decision 100% of the time, but it should always be taken into account. Ignoring it is willful ignorance that Jerry mistakenly seems to support.

 

[HungryLion]

I'm sure it would but I think the odds of successfully converting on 4th down (TD or 1D) were extremely low.

I just found out the difference in win % of going for it vs. attempting the FG. I was surprised to see just how small the difference was considering the amount of conversation this decision has sparked. Even the coach used as a pioneer in using win% says he is still interested in 1-2% increase especially if its short and he thinks he can make it. That statement alone makes this entire conversation almost comical outside of Garrett not wanting the numbers during the game. The difference was negligible and people are acting as if it was a no-brainer and anyone with a difference of opinion is just a football idiot.

The argument from me has always been about Garret not using the numbers at all during games though. Not specifically over that particular call.


Then again, the call is only getting questioned because the team lost. If the team would win more games, Garret wouldn’t get criticized as much.


So just win.

 

[aikemirv]

Maybe this has been answered but what I can find is the following:

Win Probability of going for it on 4th down = 18.8%
Win Probability of FG attempt = 16.7%

Does anybody know the win probabilities if the following occurred:
Turnover on downs = ???
Successful FG attempt = ???

That's a wash -

Then throw in our 3rd down conversion rate for the game,

Then throw in the weather conditions.

Garrett made the right call.

 

[Aviano90]

That's a wash -

Then throw in our 3rd down conversion rate for the game,

Then throw in the weather conditions.

Garrett made the right call.

Yeah, all things considered, I believe he made the right call, too. Even if someone believes otherwise, the small difference in win % certainly makes their hard core stance laughable. I assumed it was some big difference considering how passionate they have been that there was no other choice to make because the win % said so.

 

[aikemirv]

Yeah, all things considered, I believe he made the right call, too. Even if someone believes otherwise, the small difference in win % certainly makes their hard core stance laughable. I assumed it was some big difference considering how passionate they have been that there was no other choice to make because the win % said so.

I think the hard core stance is just their hatred of Garret. I don't have a problem with hating Garret, I just think it is silly to place blame where it is not valid. You got plenty to make your case. No need to look silly doing it.

 

[Aviano90]

I think the hard core stance is just their hatred of Garret. I don't have a problem with hating Garret, I just think it is silly to place blame where it is not valid. You got plenty to make your case. No need to look silly doing it.

Same here. I feel like I need a shower defending Garrett, but I'm not going to nitpick over which bad option he picked on 4th and 7.

 

[Diehardblues]

That's a wash -

Then throw in our 3rd down conversion rate for the game,

Then throw in the weather conditions.

Garrett made the right call.

Yea , I think I read in the Dallas paper the odds of scoring on 4th and 7 was less than 20%.