I think all the anti-20% crowd wants to focus on is money vs Super Bowls. There is so much more that real GM's have to consider....but that crowd doesnt want to talk about that. They just want to point to a player and say overpaid.
How long has this been talked about now in the internet age? Its been at least 10 years now. Does that crowd not think Front Offices are aware of what fan forums and couch GM's are saying about QB pay? Does this crowd really think Front Offices are that unaware? There are 32 teams with multiple people in each Front Office at competitive jobs and salaries which cause those individuals to constantly be looking for ideas. Why have the 32 Front Offices not veered off course and followed the incessant shouting to not pay QB's who havent won a Super Bowl? Why? Can anyone reasonably answer this question without being lazy and just saying "They're stupid, thats why"
There are factors that real GM's have to take into consideration that couch GM's refuse to consider. But that crowd doesnt want to here that and just wants to argue until the end of time about it. Yet none of the people in that crowd have Front Office positions or any significant position.
You're not wrong, but it still doesn't make overpaying QBs the right move to make either. I think the issue has to do with owners being content with winning seasons over championships as that keeps selling tickets, meanwhile GMs tend to have short leashes in todays game and one wrong move, especially about a QB could lead to a 3-14 year that gets you fired. This is the piece that surprises me about the Cowboys as their GM has the ultimate job security.
Many teams have started to veer off track though. Indy has been going the discount QB route for a few years now. Vegas just dumped their big money QB. Seattle moved on from Russell Wilson and had success with his backup. Green Bay seems to have grown tired of the Aaron Rodgers games, and Lamar Jackson is being allowed to test the market. It used to be a very rare thing to see a name QB actually hit either the trade or free agency market, now it happens every single year.
I think it's a fascinating conversation that gets even more interesting now that the league has expanded the playoffs to 14 teams where 9 wins should get you in more often than not. I'm sure some teams will think they can be in the playoffs every year with a quality QB, meanwhile others may say better stay in the hunt year after year with dedicating more resources to other positions.
Looking at the results we really don't have a clear answer either. Last years conference championship games offered 3 QBs on rookie deals, but the team to win it all was a big dollar QB. Most teams that made it had QBs on rookie deals (Baltimore, Miami, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Philly, SF, LA, NYG). Some had big dollar deals (Dallas, KC, Minnesota, Buffalo). Others had unusual situations (Tampa, which Brady is notorious for taking less money. Seattle who used a veteran backup)
I think the Lamar Jackson situation going on right now is a very interesting one to keep an eye on. It seems especially interesting with how many teams are reportedly not interested too. I just look at what Denver gave up just a year ago for Russel Wilson and thought there would be no shortage of interested teams in Lamar.