beware_d-ware
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The best way I've heard it put is that the NFL is good at judging tiers of players but bad at comparing players inside those tiers.
If you look at past drafts, there's a pretty steady drop off in hit rate between the first round, second round, mid rounds, and late rounds. The best players do tend to go early. But if you compare one player to the next guy drafted at his position, it's pretty much a coin flip who has the better career.
If you look at past drafts, there's a pretty steady drop off in hit rate between the first round, second round, mid rounds, and late rounds. The best players do tend to go early. But if you compare one player to the next guy drafted at his position, it's pretty much a coin flip who has the better career.