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Grading this draft class

Discussion in 'Draft Zone' started by DanA, Feb 14, 2020.

  1. DanA

    DanA Well-Known Member

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    The more I look at this draft the more I think we're not in a great spot. IMO we are just outside the range of blue-chip players. I could see one of two reaches leaving

    Blue Chip (11):
    QB: Burrows, Tua
    OT: Becton, Weifs
    WR: Lamb, Juedy
    DT: Brown, Kinlaw
    DE: Young
    CB: Okudah
    LB: Simmons

    1st round Grades (5):
    QB: Herbert
    OT: Thomas, Wills,
    DE: Epenesa
    S: Delpit

    1st/2nd round (12):
    QB: Love
    OT: Jones, Jackson
    WR: Ruggs, Shenault, Raegor, Higgins, Jefferson,
    CB: Fulton, Henderson*
    S: McKinney
    DE/OLB: Chaisson

    *Have to look into tackling effort issues

    Top 50 (12):
    RB: Swift
    CB: Arnette, Diggs, Gladney, Danzler, Igbinoghene
    WR: Aiyuk, V.Jefferson
    LB: Murray, Queen
    DE/OLB: Gross-Matos, Lewis
     
    timb2 likes this.
  2. cnuball21

    cnuball21 Well-Known Member

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    I'm confused Dan...you've got more blue chippers than 1st rounders? I agree with you 99% of the time but think it should be switched. IMO, you get 5-8ish blue chippers in each draft.

    I can't speak to the OTs bc I haven't watched any, but IMO:

    Joe
    Young
    Okudah
    Jeudy
    Lamb
    Simmons

    Brown is really close IMO, but for a DT to be a blue chipper he needs to have massive sack, pressure and TFL numbers which he does not. He's a clear top 10 for me, and Kinlaw is just behind him in the top 15 if there aren't injury concerns.
     
  3. beware_d-ware

    beware_d-ware Well-Known Member

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    Haven't watch any offensive linemen either, but this is how I'd break it down

    Blue Chip, Can't-Miss, Guaranteed Star
    Joe Burrow (he doesn't feel like it, but when you start looking down the list of names, he's the best quarterback prospect in at least 5 years)
    Chase Young
    Okudah
    Simmons

    Zero questions (this + blue chip is probably the equivalent of an NFL team's first round grades)
    QB: Tua
    RB: N/A
    WR: Jeudy, Ruggs,
    OT: Just going to steal Dan's names and say Willis, Thomas, Bacton and Wirfs
    OG: N/A
    TE: N/A
    DE: N/A
    DT: Brown, Kinlaw
    LB: N/A
    CB: N/A
    S: N/A

    Easy-projection starter material, or massive-upside, reasonable risk gambles
    QB: Herbert
    RB: Swift, Dobbins, Taylor, Edwards-Helaire
    WR: Lamb, Reagor, Higgins
    TE: N/A
    OT: Stole all of Dan's names earlier
    OG: Ditto
    OC: N/A
    DE: Chaisson, YGM, Epenesa
    DT: N/A
    LB: Queen, Murray
    CB: Diggs, Fulton
    S: Delpit, McKinney, Winfield



    I think Dan's right that we are outside of the true studs, if you will, but I also think this is a very deep draft and there's a lot of players in that tier right after them who look pro-ready.

    I went through something similar. After seeing him in the Alabama game, I was on the "top 5, god of football" hype train, but after seeing more of his tape, I had to pump the brakes. He is huge and just surreally strong for a college player, but he doesn't penetrate the way you need a top 5 pick to. Bama's fixation on power running played directly to his strengths as a defender and let him show off in that game.

    I don't think there's any chance that he fails in the NFL, worse case scenario is that he's like Vita Vea or Dexter Lawrence, but he doesn't break the meter like Chase Young or Okudah do. I mean, I think Marcus Mosher said you want a DE that averages 1 TFL per game. Chase Young averaged twice that, and he's probably going to test as a 95+ percent NFL athlete. If you're graphing measurable vs production, Chase Young is so far off in the top right corner that he's nearly off the chart. Brown is great, but he's not on that same level.
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2020
  4. Oh_Canada

    Oh_Canada Well-Known Member

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    I agree with most of this, however Raegor, Ruggs and Henderson are first rounders all day for me.
     
  5. cnuball21

    cnuball21 Well-Known Member

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    I agree with most, but do you really have Ruggs over Lamb?

    I’ve got Lamb about 20 slots higher.
     
    dallas72 likes this.
  6. conner01

    conner01 Well-Known Member

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    I think the strength of this draft is more depth than super stars
    Very deep WR class
    Very weak TE class
    Solid DB class
    Not too bad oline
    QB not that great to me
     
  7. DanA

    DanA Well-Known Member

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    It's 90% the same. We are debating 2-3 guys and where to draw the line on blue-chip. I personally think this draft drops off a cliff after Kinlaw at 11 accepting that Herbert/Tua as QB's are graded differently.

    And I'd take Kinlaw/Brown before Juedy/Lamb and have to think hard about Simmons.

    In this draft, I personally think you want to be drafting top 10, or trading back to gain picks in the late 2nd/early 3rd or even 4th round. In terms of position strength I would rank it:
    Day 1 options
    Best
    1. OT
    2. WR

    Worst -
    1. OG/OC
    2. RB
    3. DE

    Day 2 options
    Best
    1. WR
    2. CB

    Worst:
    1. QB
    2. DE

    Day 3 options
    Best
    1. WR
    2. TE

    Worst:
    1. DE
    2. DT
     
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  8. cnuball21

    cnuball21 Well-Known Member

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    Who would you trade up for and what kind of pick would be willing to give up to get there?
     
  9. dallas72

    dallas72 Well-Known Member

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    Agree..Lamb could be a true #1...Ruggs is more like a D Jackson...alot of speed, not great routes maybe 35-40 catches a year
     
  10. dallas72

    dallas72 Well-Known Member

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    D Brown ..but there is Kinlaw( not sure about medical)...Elliott in 2-3rd rounds ....WR & CB deep draft ..slot of talent 1-3 rounds
     
  11. Creeper

    Creeper Well-Known Member

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    This draft class is a lot deeper and stronger than last year's draft class. Take a look back at the 2019 draft and you'll see what I mean.
     
  12. cnuball21

    cnuball21 Well-Known Member

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    Agree 100%. I think Ruggs can a very solid #2 compliment WR. Not a 1.
     
  13. cnuball21

    cnuball21 Well-Known Member

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    As of now it’s Brown and Simmons for me. I’d part ways with our 3rd.

    Im also coming around to the argument of having 3 great WRs. I saw a twitter stat recently showing the last 10 SB winners all being in the top 5/8ish of passing. You could talk me into Jeudy/Lamb just because I think they are elite WR prospects.
     
  14. Risen Star

    Risen Star Likes Collector Zone Supporter

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    It's a 16 player draft.
     
  15. visionary

    visionary Well-Known Member

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    As a general rule for the draft, if you’re not in the top 10, you trade up into the top 10 for only elite QB (if you don’t have one), elite DE or elite LOT

    that’s it

    therefore the only one I would trade up for would be to 5 for Tua if we haven’t signed Dak
     
  16. DanA

    DanA Well-Known Member

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    I would give up:
    - A 4th for Simmons, Jeudy, Lamb
    - A 3rd for Kinlaw, Brown or Okudah
    - A 2nd for Young
    - A 1st for Burrows
     
  17. beware_d-ware

    beware_d-ware Well-Known Member

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    The way I see it, Ruggs is pretty much a lock to succeed. Brett Kollman did a really good video recently with DK Metcalf, where he showed with WRs who threaten corners vertically (mostly hulking, stiffer WRs like Dez, Calvin Johnson, and well, Metcalf), they don't need to run a huge route tree to make it. If you can beat them on a nine route and they back off, you only need to be able to run a few basic things like a hitch, post or slant to either steal the free yards they're giving up in cushion or catch them when they panic and start bailing.

    Ruggs is fast enough to threaten any NFL corner vertically, and he's tougher and more physical than any other 4.2-ish freaky speed guy I can think of outside of Tyreek Hill. I think he's got an easy route to 1,000 yard seasons.

    The biggest issue I have with Lamb is that he's really thin, and I don't think he's that fast. My guess is he'll run somewhere around a 4.5 at the Combine, and 180 lbs and 4.5 speed is not a great combination. If he scorches the track at the Combine then I'll give him a pass, but as of right now I'd consider it a question mark.

    The level of defensive talent he faced in the Big 12 is also a question mark, as the playoff game vs LSU showed that the talent levels over there just don't compare to the big 4 or 5 CFB power brokers. That being said, Lamb was still able to get 120 yards even with a team literally imploding around him, so that is major points in his favor.

    There's a lot to like with Lamb, but I don't consider him bust-proof in the same way as say Jeudy.
     
  18. cnuball21

    cnuball21 Well-Known Member

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    Lamb could run low 4.5s and is still draft him in the top 10. He’ll also continue to grow into his frame.

    Dude runs quality routes, has good quickness and has elite ball skills / catch radius / body control.
     
  19. DanA

    DanA Well-Known Member

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    I think he's faster than that (mid 4.4's) but he is thin. He's fantastic tracking the ball though, I agree with that,
     
  20. DanA

    DanA Well-Known Member

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    I see Lamb as a Dez Bryant/Michael Thomas type and my no.1 ahead of Jeudy. He's the type of guy I'd cringe seeing matched up on Awuzie. Juedy has a higher floor but I like Lamb and think he's going to have a bigger influence in the RedZone.
     

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