Gadfly22
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In 2009, RW was targeted as receiver 86 times and made 38 receptions -- i.e., he caught 44% of the passes thrown to him.
Now a lot depends on the QB, the throw, the situation, etc. But looking back over his history, RW caught 44% of the passes thrown to him in 2008, 60.5% in 2007 (his best percentage), 54% in 2006, 48% in 2005 and 46% in 2004 (his rookie year).
Ogletree caught 7 of 8 passes in 2009 (87.5%) but that's a really small sample and not a fair comparison.
Austin caught 81 of 124 in 2009 -- 65%.
What's "normal"? I don't think there is a "normal" since a West Coast WR might catch a much higher percentage of shorter, quicker routes. But take Anquan Boldin as a comparable -- a quality receiver, #2 to Fitzgerald, being thrown to by an accurate QB in a non-West Coast offense.
Boldin recorded 84/127 (66%) in 2009, 86/126 (68%) in 2008, 71/99 (71.7%) in 2007, 83/152 (54.6%) in 2006, 102/171 (59.6%) in 2005, 56/104 (53.8%) in 2004 and 101/165 (61%) in 2003.
In short, as a rule of thumb, I think you have to expect a starting WR to catch about 60% of the passes thrown his way -- maybe 65% in a good year.
Roy Williams has hit the 60% mark only once in his career -- barely, in 2007. He generally hovers around 50% and below. So I wouldn't expect a huge turnaround in his dependability in 2010. He's just not that kind of receiver.
If you want someone closer to dependable, start Crayton -- 37/67 (55%) in 2009, 39/70 (55.7%) in 2008, 50/81 (61.7%) in 2007, 36/48 (75%) in 2006, 22/35 (62.8%) in 2005 and 12/15 (80%) in 2004.
Now a lot depends on the QB, the throw, the situation, etc. But looking back over his history, RW caught 44% of the passes thrown to him in 2008, 60.5% in 2007 (his best percentage), 54% in 2006, 48% in 2005 and 46% in 2004 (his rookie year).
Ogletree caught 7 of 8 passes in 2009 (87.5%) but that's a really small sample and not a fair comparison.
Austin caught 81 of 124 in 2009 -- 65%.
What's "normal"? I don't think there is a "normal" since a West Coast WR might catch a much higher percentage of shorter, quicker routes. But take Anquan Boldin as a comparable -- a quality receiver, #2 to Fitzgerald, being thrown to by an accurate QB in a non-West Coast offense.
Boldin recorded 84/127 (66%) in 2009, 86/126 (68%) in 2008, 71/99 (71.7%) in 2007, 83/152 (54.6%) in 2006, 102/171 (59.6%) in 2005, 56/104 (53.8%) in 2004 and 101/165 (61%) in 2003.
In short, as a rule of thumb, I think you have to expect a starting WR to catch about 60% of the passes thrown his way -- maybe 65% in a good year.
Roy Williams has hit the 60% mark only once in his career -- barely, in 2007. He generally hovers around 50% and below. So I wouldn't expect a huge turnaround in his dependability in 2010. He's just not that kind of receiver.
If you want someone closer to dependable, start Crayton -- 37/67 (55%) in 2009, 39/70 (55.7%) in 2008, 50/81 (61.7%) in 2007, 36/48 (75%) in 2006, 22/35 (62.8%) in 2005 and 12/15 (80%) in 2004.
