Hidden stats that will likely decide our improvement in 2026

[Diehardblues]

I’ll be pleased if our defense is as good as 3 straight 12 win seasons.

 

[Diehardblues]

If I recall correctly in our last 3 playoff seasons when we had the lead early our winning percentage was fairly high.

Our offense didn’t play as well from behind and our run defense was more exposed when opponent was ahead.

When we had lead early could pound the rock on offense and defense could pin their ears back on defense with pass rush.

 

[Tractor1]

Football's not complicated. Win on 3rd down and you win the game.

 

[Bobhaze]

Football's not complicated. Win on 3rd down and you win the game.

From the Op:

• The team scoring first in NFL games wins 64% of the time.
• The team leading at the half wins 75% of the time. (We trailed in 20 of 34 games the last 2 seasons at the half)
• The team leading after 3 quarters wins 90% of the time. (We trailed in 21 of 34 games last 2 seasons after 3 qtrs.)

That’s all pretty simple too.

 

[zekecowboy]

It’s no secret that the 2026 season will hinge in large part on the expected improvement of our historically bad defense the last two seasons. For the second year in a row and for the 16th time in the last 26 seasons, the Cowboys did not make the playoffs.

We obviously have a lot of areas for improvement. Besides the glaringly obvious key stat improvements needed this year (like yards per play, points per game, turnovers per game, etc) we have some lesser known but equally critical improvements needed to make the playoffs in 2026.

So what are those hidden stats?

• Be the team who scores first - WHY? In the NFL, teams who score first win 64% of the time. In 2024 and ‘25, the Cowboys had a collective record of 14-19-1. We scored first in only 16 of those 34 games. That MUST improve.
• Be the team ahead at halftime - WHY? Teams leading at the half win 75% of the time. In 2024, we trailed at the half 10 times, losing 9 of those games. In 2025, we also trailed at the half 10 times, losing 8, winning 1 (in OT) and tying the other.
• Have the lead going into the 4th qtr - WHY? Teams leading at the end of 3 qtrs win 90% of the time! In 2024 the Cowboys trailed at the end of the 3rd qtr 11 times, losing 10 of those games, and got outscored 82-28 in 3rd qtrs. In 2025 we also trailed 10 games after 3 qtrs, going 1-8-1 in those games.
• Based on the above stats, we MUST improve scoring on offense in the 1st and 3rd qtrs. Our scoring by qtr numbers - our worst scoring qtr was the first quarter (avg only 4.5 pts) and the best was the 2nd qtr (avg 10.5 pts) We sucked to start games and also sucked immediately after halftime. This is where we must improve.
• We must improve defensively by not allowing the opponent to score on their first possessions at the beginning of the game and after halftime. Our defense allowed the opponent to score on their opening drive of the game and the first drive of the 2nd half nearly 60% of the time. Cut that down to about 20-25% and we are vastly improved.

From a big picture standpoint, the first thing that jumps out to me is how we start games on both sides of the ball. Falling behind early puts instant pressure on the offense but conversely, getting a lead early gives us a very realistic chance to win games.

If the defense can just stop giving up opening drive TDs and a scoring drive TDs right after halftime, we will have an immediate chance to turn this around.

RE:

• We must improve defensively by not allowing the opponent to score on their first possessions at the beginning of the game and after halftime. Our defense allowed the opponent to score on their opening drive of the game and the first drive of the 2nd half nearly 60% of the time. Cut that down to about 20-25% and we are vastly improved.

DALLAS MUST HAVE BETTER HALFTIME ADJUSTMENTS.

 

[Tractor1]

Last season ('25) the better teams were allowing a 3rd down conversion rate of 32-35%. In contrast the Cowboys were allowing a worst ever 54% at mid-season. They improved to 41% overall, but that was still in the bottom tier. Simplicity is in the numbers. If you can’t get off the field on 3rd down your chances of success suffer.

 

[Bobhaze]

Last season ('25) the better teams were allowing a 3rd down conversion rate of 32-35%. In contrast the Cowboys were allowing a worst ever 54% at mid-season. They improved to 41% overall, but that was still in the bottom tier. Simplicity is in the numbers. If you can’t get off the field on 3rd down your chances of success suffer.

Agreed. We also gave up 6 yards per play. Last in the NFL. Almost humorous - the Cowboys had fewer 3rd down chances than many teams because their opponents so often converted on 2nd down.

 

[gtb1943]

Agreed. We also gave up 6 yards per play. Last in the NFL. Almost humorous - the Cowboys had fewer 3rd down chances than many teams because their opponents so often converted on 2nd down.

A stat that is not kept where you can find it is offensively and defensively getting a first down on second down. These show teams that are exceptionally good and REALLY BAD.

 

[DallasEast]

It's on Jerry and his lack of accountability. That has permeated the whole culture of the franchise. That's why we are a slow starting team, and a bad playoff team. Nobody really cares, because the guy who should care more than anyone is happy with his 30+ year drought, and thinks he's doing a good job.

Dallas has had a revolving door at head coach since Jimmy Johnson. In my opinion, the only rosters, who were a measurable reflection of their head coach's demand for consistent, four-quarter, gritty football, played under Bill Parcells. All others managed overseeing spurts of the same during the course of the regular season, of which some ended with playoff berths.

The Parcells' teams were more a reflection of their head coach than what the other coaches fielded. All others have been a mirror of Jerry Jones' boastful persona of what championship-competing football should be. That has been a longstanding problem since owners do not lead teams to Lombardi trophies. Head coaches do.

 

[pitt33]

Is there any mystery who one of the best members is in the CZ?

I submit the above post as proof. Great job Bob!!!!!!

If anything, Bullet does his homework.

I’m too lazy in retirement.

Keep after it Bob.

 

[visionary]

Is there any mystery who one of the best members is in the CZ?

I submit the above post as proof. Great job Bob!!!!!!

Exactly
It would nice if other staff members also made an effort instead of just hanging around the “Other Topics zone”

 

[shabazz]

Is there any mystery who one of the best members is in the CZ?

I submit the above post as proof. Great job Bob!!!!!!

Yeah but he left out the most elusive and hidden stat...."The team with the most points at the end of the game, wins"

Do better Bob

 

[Bobhaze]

Yeah but he left out the most elusive and hidden stat...."The team with the most points at the end of the game, wins"

Do better Bob

I also forgot to mention the team with the most wins will be the highest seed, and the team that wins all their playoff games is the champ.

Sometimes it’s all right in front of me and I still forget.

 

[shabazz]

I also forgot to mention the team with the most wins will be the highest seed, and the team that wins all their playoff games is the champ.

Sometimes it’s all right in front of me and I still forget.

But on the real, great write up!

 

[nalam]

It’s no secret that the 2026 season will hinge in large part on the expected improvement of our historically bad defense the last two seasons. For the second year in a row and for the 16th time in the last 26 seasons, the Cowboys did not make the playoffs.

We obviously have a lot of areas for improvement. Besides the glaringly obvious key stat improvements needed this year (like yards per play, points per game, turnovers per game, etc) we have some lesser known but equally critical improvements needed to make the playoffs in 2026.

So what are those hidden stats?

• Be the team who scores first - WHY? In the NFL, teams who score first win 64% of the time. In 2024 and ‘25, the Cowboys had a collective record of 14-19-1. We scored first in only 16 of those 34 games. That MUST improve.
• Be the team ahead at halftime - WHY? Teams leading at the half win 75% of the time. In 2024, we trailed at the half 10 times, losing 9 of those games. In 2025, we also trailed at the half 10 times, losing 8, winning 1 (in OT) and tying the other.
• Have the lead going into the 4th qtr - WHY? Teams leading at the end of 3 qtrs win 90% of the time! In 2024 the Cowboys trailed at the end of the 3rd qtr 11 times, losing 10 of those games, and got outscored 82-28 in 3rd qtrs. In 2025 we also trailed 10 games after 3 qtrs, going 1-8-1 in those games.
• Based on the above stats, we MUST improve scoring on offense in the 1st and 3rd qtrs. Our scoring by qtr numbers - our worst scoring qtr was the first quarter (avg only 4.5 pts) and the best was the 2nd qtr (avg 10.5 pts) We sucked to start games and also sucked immediately after halftime. This is where we must improve.
• We must improve defensively by not allowing the opponent to score on their first possessions at the beginning of the game and after halftime. Our defense allowed the opponent to score on their opening drive of the game and the first drive of the 2nd half nearly 60% of the time. Cut that down to about 20-25% and we are vastly improved.

From a big picture standpoint, the first thing that jumps out to me is how we start games on both sides of the ball. Falling behind early puts instant pressure on the offense but conversely, getting a lead early gives us a very realistic chance to win games.

If the defense can just stop giving up opening drive TDs and a scoring drive TDs right after halftime, we will have an immediate chance to turn this around.

Bob, our D of last few years was a sieve, I would be happy to see a few punts from opponents, because anytime D comes on it has become an automatic score for the opponent. If that changes , everything will follow , also our D lead by slowpoke Dak will have to get hot fast and strike, We can’t wait until 3rd qtr to string together good plays .

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

It’s no secret that the 2026 season will hinge in large part on the expected improvement of our historically bad defense the last two seasons. For the second year in a row and for the 16th time in the last 26 seasons, the Cowboys did not make the playoffs.

We obviously have a lot of areas for improvement. Besides the glaringly obvious key stat improvements needed this year (like yards per play, points per game, turnovers per game, etc) we have some lesser known but equally critical improvements needed to make the playoffs in 2026.

So what are those hidden stats?

• Be the team who scores first - WHY? In the NFL, teams who score first win 64% of the time. In 2024 and ‘25, the Cowboys had a collective record of 14-19-1. We scored first in only 16 of those 34 games. That MUST improve.
• Be the team ahead at halftime - WHY? Teams leading at the half win 75% of the time. In 2024, we trailed at the half 10 times, losing 9 of those games. In 2025, we also trailed at the half 10 times, losing 8, winning 1 (in OT) and tying the other.
• Have the lead going into the 4th qtr - WHY? Teams leading at the end of 3 qtrs win 90% of the time! In 2024 the Cowboys trailed at the end of the 3rd qtr 11 times, losing 10 of those games, and got outscored 82-28 in 3rd qtrs. In 2025 we also trailed 10 games after 3 qtrs, going 1-8-1 in those games.
• Based on the above stats, we MUST improve scoring on offense in the 1st and 3rd qtrs. Our scoring by qtr numbers - our worst scoring qtr was the first quarter (avg only 4.5 pts) and the best was the 2nd qtr (avg 10.5 pts) We sucked to start games and also sucked immediately after halftime. This is where we must improve.
• We must improve defensively by not allowing the opponent to score on their first possessions at the beginning of the game and after halftime. Our defense allowed the opponent to score on their opening drive of the game and the first drive of the 2nd half nearly 60% of the time. Cut that down to about 20-25% and we are vastly improved.

From a big picture standpoint, the first thing that jumps out to me is how we start games on both sides of the ball. Falling behind early puts instant pressure on the offense but conversely, getting a lead early gives us a very realistic chance to win games.

If the defense can just stop giving up opening drive TDs and a scoring drive TDs right after halftime, we will have an immediate chance to turn this around.

interesting, but to me those are outcomes of actual issues. for example, why can't we stop teams from scoring first when they have the ball first? when you dig, you see we had trouble on 3rd and 4th downs allowing teams to convert to first downs and keep the drive alive.

now, regarding your first bullett. you mentioned 14-19-1 and how many of those games we had the ball first? how many of those then did we score.

if the defense doesn't improve its 3rd down efficiency then none of it matters. last year we were one of the worst teams in the league allowing teams to keep drives alive. against GB, 4th down was in play every series without second thought. they knew we give up a big play to keep the drive alive.

 

[DarkVader33]

interesting, but to me those are outcomes of actual issues. for example, why can't we stop teams from scoring first when they have the ball first? when you dig, you see we had trouble on 3rd and 4th downs allowing teams to convert to first downs and keep the drive alive.

now, regarding your first bullett. you mentioned 14-19-1 and how many of those games we had the ball first? how many of those then did we score.

if the defense doesn't improve its 3rd down efficiency then none of it matters. last year we were one of the worst teams in the league allowing teams to keep drives alive. against GB, 4th down was in play every series without second thought. they knew we give up a big play to keep the drive alive.

Not to mention the horrible 2nd down efficiency. Way too many third and shorts and heck, way too many first downs converted on 2nd downs.

 

[kskboys]

We have started slow virtually the entire last decade

and our D is the same way

To me the single most important stat on both sides of the ball is third down conversions

Extremely important.

 

[kskboys]

Bob, you ought to be out of breath after that spill. The only stat that matters is having the more points when the 4th quarter clock expires. That's all that need be said. You're wasting your breath with all that other minutia.

No it's not. All that matters is figuring out how to get there.

ATL lost a super bowl using your philosophy. NE won 7 using a polar opposite philosophy.

 

[dupree89]

I’m too lazy in retirement.

me too. I am in my recliner with my rescue beagle sleeping on my lap. Meanwhile, bob is pounding away on the keyboard doing google searches and has 7 spreadsheets open, getting us valuable info so we can better form our opinions.

we thank bob for his work.