Hidden stats that will likely decide our improvement in 2026

I also forgot to mention the team with the most wins will be the highest seed, and the team that wins all their playoff games is the champ.

Sometimes it’s all right in front of me and I still forget.
:flagwave:
And that water is wet and the sky is sometimes blue and you can't breathe on Mars!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
me too. I am in my recliner with my rescue beagle sleeping on my lap. Meanwhile, bob is pounding away on the keyboard doing google searches and has 7 spreadsheets open, getting us valuable info so we can better form our opinions.

we thank bob for his work. :bow:
I'd say that means sending him some strippers and good whiskey!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
It’s no secret that the 2026 season will hinge in large part on the expected improvement of our historically bad defense the last two seasons. For the second year in a row and for the 16th time in the last 26 seasons, the Cowboys did not make the playoffs.

We obviously have a lot of areas for improvement. Besides the glaringly obvious key stat improvements needed this year (like yards per play, points per game, turnovers per game, etc) we have some lesser known but equally critical improvements needed to make the playoffs in 2026.

So what are those hidden stats?

  • Be the team who scores first - WHY? In the NFL, teams who score first win 64% of the time. In 2024 and ‘25, the Cowboys had a collective record of 14-19-1. We scored first in only 16 of those 34 games. That MUST improve.
  • Be the team ahead at halftime - WHY? Teams leading at the half win 75% of the time. In 2024, we trailed at the half 10 times, losing 9 of those games. In 2025, we also trailed at the half 10 times, losing 8, winning 1 (in OT) and tying the other.
  • Have the lead going into the 4th qtr - WHY? Teams leading at the end of 3 qtrs win 90% of the time! In 2024 the Cowboys trailed at the end of the 3rd qtr 11 times, losing 10 of those games, and got outscored 82-28 in 3rd qtrs. In 2025 we also trailed 10 games after 3 qtrs, going 1-8-1 in those games.
  • Based on the above stats, we MUST improve scoring on offense in the 1st and 3rd qtrs. Our scoring by qtr numbers - our worst scoring qtr was the first quarter (avg only 4.5 pts) and the best was the 2nd qtr (avg 10.5 pts) We sucked to start games and also sucked immediately after halftime. This is where we must improve.
  • We must improve defensively by not allowing the opponent to score on their first possessions at the beginning of the game and after halftime. Our defense allowed the opponent to score on their opening drive of the game and the first drive of the 2nd half nearly 60% of the time. Cut that down to about 20-25% and we are vastly improved.
From a big picture standpoint, the first thing that jumps out to me is how we start games on both sides of the ball. Falling behind early puts instant pressure on the offense but conversely, getting a lead early gives us a very realistic chance to win games.

If the defense can just stop giving up opening drive TDs and a scoring drive TDs right after halftime, we will have an immediate chance to turn this around.
I like this....great work, but I wonder if we can simplify it to the better team wins most of the games.
I'd be willing to bet that the team that scores first, leads at the half, leads after 3 quarters, is generally the better team most of the time. How often does the lesser team win any of these key stats? Certainly not most of them.

I think the better team, even the team favored on the money line by sports betting companies, wins most of the games and wins more of these stats than they lose. Now, if there are 2 evenly matched teams, a toss up so to speak, then I think the emphasis on getting the early lead and making the opponent chase may be worth coming out firing and not saving anything special for the 4th quarter.

Great stats! But I don't think it's that easy to simply say you're going to change those things unless you change them by building a better team with better coaching.
 
In other words, stop trying to establish the run.
football fools always seem to miss the reality
for any fan of the boys to not understand how the twin towers of victory work it is simple
Have an excellent running game and an excellent run D and you are in a great place to win games
 
It’s no secret that the 2026 season will hinge in large part on the expected improvement of our historically bad defense the last two seasons. For the second year in a row and for the 16th time in the last 26 seasons, the Cowboys did not make the playoffs.

We obviously have a lot of areas for improvement. Besides the glaringly obvious key stat improvements needed this year (like yards per play, points per game, turnovers per game, etc) we have some lesser known but equally critical improvements needed to make the playoffs in 2026.

So what are those hidden stats?

  • Be the team who scores first - WHY? In the NFL, teams who score first win 64% of the time. In 2024 and ‘25, the Cowboys had a collective record of 14-19-1. We scored first in only 16 of those 34 games. That MUST improve.
  • Be the team ahead at halftime - WHY? Teams leading at the half win 75% of the time. In 2024, we trailed at the half 10 times, losing 9 of those games. In 2025, we also trailed at the half 10 times, losing 8, winning 1 (in OT) and tying the other.
  • Have the lead going into the 4th qtr - WHY? Teams leading at the end of 3 qtrs win 90% of the time! In 2024 the Cowboys trailed at the end of the 3rd qtr 11 times, losing 10 of those games, and got outscored 82-28 in 3rd qtrs. In 2025 we also trailed 10 games after 3 qtrs, going 1-8-1 in those games.
  • Based on the above stats, we MUST improve scoring on offense in the 1st and 3rd qtrs. Our scoring by qtr numbers - our worst scoring qtr was the first quarter (avg only 4.5 pts) and the best was the 2nd qtr (avg 10.5 pts) We sucked to start games and also sucked immediately after halftime. This is where we must improve.
  • We must improve defensively by not allowing the opponent to score on their first possessions at the beginning of the game and after halftime. Our defense allowed the opponent to score on their opening drive of the game and the first drive of the 2nd half nearly 60% of the time. Cut that down to about 20-25% and we are vastly improved.
From a big picture standpoint, the first thing that jumps out to me is how we start games on both sides of the ball. Falling behind early puts instant pressure on the offense but conversely, getting a lead early gives us a very realistic chance to win games.

If the defense can just stop giving up opening drive TDs and a scoring drive TDs right after halftime, we will have an immediate chance to turn this around.
Nice Post Bob as usual sir, Dallas seems to be trending toward being a much more talented football team. I believe Dallas has improved in both player personnel and the coaching staff. Schottenheimer seems to be a bright light; his hiring of Christian Parker and staff have already changed this team's culture. Parker has been able to draft some difference makers some hard-nosed players that are talented and smart and love the game of football. I believe these 4 draft picks will help this football team Downs, Lawrence, Barham and Moore are going to fit nicely with Quinnen, Clark, Gary and Overshown. When football minds get to call the shots, this is the result. Dallas will be a contender soon if these moves continue.
 
And it’s been a problem over multiple HCs here. Coming out flat is a calling card of the Cowboys for far too long.
I think coming out flat is going change, Jaishawn Barham is going to bring an intensity not only to this defense, but to the whole football team. This guy is going to bring the pain with him you watch and see, this is the culture changing dawg that this football team has needed for quite some time. A winning culture has started here; I can feel it.
 
It’s no secret that the 2026 season will hinge in large part on the expected improvement of our historically bad defense the last two seasons. For the second year in a row and for the 16th time in the last 26 seasons, the Cowboys did not make the playoffs.

We obviously have a lot of areas for improvement. Besides the glaringly obvious key stat improvements needed this year (like yards per play, points per game, turnovers per game, etc) we have some lesser known but equally critical improvements needed to make the playoffs in 2026.

So what are those hidden stats?

  • Be the team who scores first - WHY? In the NFL, teams who score first win 64% of the time. In 2024 and ‘25, the Cowboys had a collective record of 14-19-1. We scored first in only 16 of those 34 games. That MUST improve.
  • Be the team ahead at halftime - WHY? Teams leading at the half win 75% of the time. In 2024, we trailed at the half 10 times, losing 9 of those games. In 2025, we also trailed at the half 10 times, losing 8, winning 1 (in OT) and tying the other.
  • Have the lead going into the 4th qtr - WHY? Teams leading at the end of 3 qtrs win 90% of the time! In 2024 the Cowboys trailed at the end of the 3rd qtr 11 times, losing 10 of those games, and got outscored 82-28 in 3rd qtrs. In 2025 we also trailed 10 games after 3 qtrs, going 1-8-1 in those games.
  • Based on the above stats, we MUST improve scoring on offense in the 1st and 3rd qtrs. Our scoring by qtr numbers - our worst scoring qtr was the first quarter (avg only 4.5 pts) and the best was the 2nd qtr (avg 10.5 pts) We sucked to start games and also sucked immediately after halftime. This is where we must improve.
  • We must improve defensively by not allowing the opponent to score on their first possessions at the beginning of the game and after halftime. Our defense allowed the opponent to score on their opening drive of the game and the first drive of the 2nd half nearly 60% of the time. Cut that down to about 20-25% and we are vastly improved.
From a big picture standpoint, the first thing that jumps out to me is how we start games on both sides of the ball. Falling behind early puts instant pressure on the offense but conversely, getting a lead early gives us a very realistic chance to win games.

If the defense can just stop giving up opening drive TDs and a scoring drive TDs right after halftime, we will have an immediate chance to turn this around.
Interesting numbers. One thing is a lock: our defense will be better. The FO finally spent some money on the defense. To me, it’s also about depth. 17 game season, Thurs games, and international games create more injuries. So, your depth players will see playing time. Anyone can pick a great player in the first round, but getting quality bang for the buck players in later rounds AND developing them is part of having a roster capable of making the playoffs. “Playoffs? Playoffs??”
 
And it’s been a problem over multiple HCs here. Coming out flat is a calling card of the Cowboys for far too long.
A huge part of that is the players don’t respect our head coach because he can’t fire anyone. The Dallas coach is a total fraud and merely a figurehead.
 
Dallas has had a revolving door at head coach since Jimmy Johnson. In my opinion, the only rosters, who were a measurable reflection of their head coach's demand for consistent, four-quarter, gritty football, played under Bill Parcells. All others managed overseeing spurts of the same during the course of the regular season, of which some ended with playoff berths.

The Parcells' teams were more a reflection of their head coach than what the other coaches fielded. All others have been a mirror of Jerry Jones' boastful persona of what championship-competing football should be. That has been a longstanding problem since owners do not lead teams to Lombardi trophies. Head coaches do.
Agreed. And IMO Marion Barber epitomized a Bill Parcells player. A great what-if is if our beloved fuhrer had not thrown TO onto the team when Parcells said he didn’t want him. TO has HOF numbers but Parcells was right because TO divided the locker room.
 
It’s no secret that the 2026 season will hinge in large part on the expected improvement of our historically bad defense the last two seasons. For the second year in a row and for the 16th time in the last 26 seasons, the Cowboys did not make the playoffs.

We obviously have a lot of areas for improvement. Besides the glaringly obvious key stat improvements needed this year (like yards per play, points per game, turnovers per game, etc) we have some lesser known but equally critical improvements needed to make the playoffs in 2026.

So what are those hidden stats?

  • Be the team who scores first - WHY? In the NFL, teams who score first win 64% of the time. In 2024 and ‘25, the Cowboys had a collective record of 14-19-1. We scored first in only 16 of those 34 games. That MUST improve.
  • Be the team ahead at halftime - WHY? Teams leading at the half win 75% of the time. In 2024, we trailed at the half 10 times, losing 9 of those games. In 2025, we also trailed at the half 10 times, losing 8, winning 1 (in OT) and tying the other.
  • Have the lead going into the 4th qtr - WHY? Teams leading at the end of 3 qtrs win 90% of the time! In 2024 the Cowboys trailed at the end of the 3rd qtr 11 times, losing 10 of those games, and got outscored 82-28 in 3rd qtrs. In 2025 we also trailed 10 games after 3 qtrs, going 1-8-1 in those games.
  • Based on the above stats, we MUST improve scoring on offense in the 1st and 3rd qtrs. Our scoring by qtr numbers - our worst scoring qtr was the first quarter (avg only 4.5 pts) and the best was the 2nd qtr (avg 10.5 pts) We sucked to start games and also sucked immediately after halftime. This is where we must improve.
  • We must improve defensively by not allowing the opponent to score on their first possessions at the beginning of the game and after halftime. Our defense allowed the opponent to score on their opening drive of the game and the first drive of the 2nd half nearly 60% of the time. Cut that down to about 20-25% and we are vastly improved.
From a big picture standpoint, the first thing that jumps out to me is how we start games on both sides of the ball. Falling behind early puts instant pressure on the offense but conversely, getting a lead early gives us a very realistic chance to win games.

If the defense can just stop giving up opening drive TDs and a scoring drive TDs right after halftime, we will have an immediate chance to turn this around.
Great Post as always.
 
football fools always seem to miss the reality
for any fan of the boys to not understand how the twin towers of victory work it is simple
Have an excellent running game and an excellent run D and you are in a great place to win games
Except for the fact that there is no correlation between those things and winning, sure.
 
Have the lead going into the 4th qtr - WHY? Teams leading at the end of 3 qtrs win 90% of the time! In 2024 the Cowboys trailed at the end of the 3rd qtr 11 times, losing 10 of those games, and got outscored 82-28 in 3rd qtrs. In 2025 we also trailed 10 games after 3 qtrs, going 1-8-1 in those games.
THIS ^^^^^^^ I will lock in for improvement. It's crazy to think our odds are only a 10% chance of winning if trailing after 3 quarters.

Damn.......good job Bob
 
THIS ^^^^^^^ I will lock in for improvement. It's crazy to think our odds are only a 10% chance of winning if trailing after 3 quarters.

Damn.......good job Bob
That stat needs to be scrutinized more. What is the breakdown of how much is a team is down by? I’d assume there would be a big discrepancy between teams down one point vs being down 7 points at the end of the quarter for example.
 
It’s no secret that the 2026 season will hinge in large part on the expected improvement of our historically bad defense the last two seasons. For the second year in a row and for the 16th time in the last 26 seasons, the Cowboys did not make the playoffs.

We obviously have a lot of areas for improvement. Besides the glaringly obvious key stat improvements needed this year (like yards per play, points per game, turnovers per game, etc) we have some lesser known but equally critical improvements needed to make the playoffs in 2026.

So what are those hidden stats?

  • Be the team who scores first - WHY? In the NFL, teams who score first win 64% of the time. In 2024 and ‘25, the Cowboys had a collective record of 14-19-1. We scored first in only 16 of those 34 games. That MUST improve.
  • Be the team ahead at halftime - WHY? Teams leading at the half win 75% of the time. In 2024, we trailed at the half 10 times, losing 9 of those games. In 2025, we also trailed at the half 10 times, losing 8, winning 1 (in OT) and tying the other.
  • Have the lead going into the 4th qtr - WHY? Teams leading at the end of 3 qtrs win 90% of the time! In 2024 the Cowboys trailed at the end of the 3rd qtr 11 times, losing 10 of those games, and got outscored 82-28 in 3rd qtrs. In 2025 we also trailed 10 games after 3 qtrs, going 1-8-1 in those games.
  • Based on the above stats, we MUST improve scoring on offense in the 1st and 3rd qtrs. Our scoring by qtr numbers - our worst scoring qtr was the first quarter (avg only 4.5 pts) and the best was the 2nd qtr (avg 10.5 pts) We sucked to start games and also sucked immediately after halftime. This is where we must improve.
  • We must improve defensively by not allowing the opponent to score on their first possessions at the beginning of the game and after halftime. Our defense allowed the opponent to score on their opening drive of the game and the first drive of the 2nd half nearly 60% of the time. Cut that down to about 20-25% and we are vastly improved.
From a big picture standpoint, the first thing that jumps out to me is how we start games on both sides of the ball. Falling behind early puts instant pressure on the offense but conversely, getting a lead early gives us a very realistic chance to win games.

If the defense can just stop giving up opening drive TDs and a scoring drive TDs right after halftime, we will have an immediate chance to turn this around.
I do not want to turn this into a Dak thread, but I would be remiss if I did not point out how many times in “bag” games that Dak gets off to a notoriously slow start, having multiple 3 and outs to start the game, with over throws, under throws, etc.

Dak has been a little better about that of late, but your $60+M per year player should be a huge part of that improvement in that area.
 
A huge part of that is the players don’t respect our head coach because he can’t fire anyone. The Dallas coach is a total fraud and merely a figurehead.
Good Post Art, I have always believed that football players should have one man that is the leader of a football team, that man should be the head coach. The head coach needs to be the final word, the one person all players have to answer to. The last head coach who had the authority to run this football team as a true head coach, who kept players liable for their actions and had the power to hold all players accountable was Bill Parcells. When Ol Jerry and son override this important balance in the way this football team functions you get a culture that can't operate as a team, and this is the reason this organization can't win a playoff game anymore. Until this front office gives Schottenheimer total control as a head coach and last voice disciplinarian, this same failed routine will continue. Communication between the players and the head coach is strained within this organization and their lies the main culture problem. I doubt these changes are made, but they are long overdue.
 

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